viral

病毒性
  • 文章类型: Case Reports
    方法:一名62岁的妇女来到我们医院,前一周咳嗽和呼吸困难恶化,在此期间,她因疑似肺炎接受了阿奇霉素和泼尼松治疗。她没有发烧,发冷,或者出汗,但是她的咳嗽在间隔期间变得明显到有血的痰。病史对胰岛素依赖型糖尿病和OSA具有重要意义。她早戒烟44年,没有肺病史。她是居住在明尼苏达州东南部的银行出纳员,没有描述相关的吸入或环境暴露,吸毒,抽吸,或者在她生病之前旅行。
    METHODS: A 62-year-old woman came to our hospital with worsening cough and dyspnea over the preceding week, during which time she had been treated with azithromycin and prednisone for suspected pneumonia. She had no fever, chills, or sweats, but her cough had become productive of clear to blood-tinged phlegm during the interval. Medical history was significant for insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus and OSA. She had quit smoking 44 years earlier and had no history of lung disease. She was a bank teller residing in southeastern Minnesota and described no relevant inhalational or environmental exposures, drug use, aspiration, or travels preceding her illness.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    背景下呼吸道感染(LRTI)是全球婴儿发病和死亡的主要原因。LRTI可能由病毒或细菌感染引起,单独或组合。我们调查了南非出生队列中LRTI与婴儿鼻咽(NP)病毒和细菌之间的关联。方法在Drakenstein儿童健康研究(DCHS)的婴儿的病例对照研究中,对LRTI病例进行前瞻性鉴定,并与队列中的对照组进行年龄匹配。使用定量实时聚合酶链反应(qPCR)和16SrRNA基因扩增子测序测试NP拭子。我们计算了qPCR靶标的调整后条件赔率比(aOR),并使用混合效应模型来识别LRTI病例和对照之间的差异丰富分类单元,并探索病毒-细菌相互作用。结果呼吸道合胞病毒(RSV)[aOR:5.69,95%CI:3.03-10.69],人鼻病毒(HRV)[1.47,1.03-2.09],副流感病毒[3.46,1.64-7.26],腺病毒[1.99,1.08-3.68],肠道病毒[2.32,1.20-4.46],流感嗜血杆菌[1.72,1.25-2.37],肺炎克雷伯菌[2.66,1.59-4.46],或高密度(>6.9log10拷贝/mL)肺炎链球菌[1.53,1.01-2.32]与LRTI相关。使用16S测序,LRTI与嗜血杆菌的相对丰度增加(q=0.0003)和Dolosigranulum的相对丰度减少(q=0.001)相关,棒杆菌(q=0.091)和奈瑟菌(q=0.004)。在RSV阳性的样本中,在病例中,葡萄球菌和Alloprevotella的相对丰度低于对照组。在副流感病毒或HRV阳性的样本中,病例中嗜血杆菌的相对丰度较高。结论细菌分类群和LRTI之间的关联与高收入国家中发现的关联非常相似,提示一种保守的表型。RSV是与LRTI相关的主要病毒。流感嗜血杆菌似乎是LRTI的主要细菌驱动因素,与病毒协同作用。革兰氏阳性菌Dolosigranulum和棒状杆菌可以预防LRTI,而葡萄球菌与RSV相关LRTI风险降低相关。资助美国国立卫生研究院,比尔和梅林达·盖茨基金会,南非国家研究基金会,南非医学研究理事会,L\'Oréal-UNESCOforWomeninScienceSouthAfrica,澳大利亚国家健康与医学研究委员会。
    UNASSIGNED: Lower respiratory tract infection (LRTI) is a leading cause of infant morbidity and mortality globally. LRTI may be caused by viral or bacterial infections, individually or in combination. We investigated associations between LRTI and infant nasopharyngeal (NP) viruses and bacteria in a South African birth cohort.
    UNASSIGNED: In a case-control study of infants enrolled in the Drakenstein Child Health Study (DCHS), LRTI cases were identified prospectively and age-matched with controls from the cohort. NP swabs were tested using quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) and 16S rRNA gene amplicon sequencing. We calculated adjusted Conditional Odds Ratios (aORs) for qPCR targets and used mixed effects models to identify differentially abundant taxa between LRTI cases and controls and explore viral-bacterial interactions.
    UNASSIGNED: Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) [aOR: 5.69, 95% CI: 3.03-10.69], human rhinovirus (HRV) [1.47, 1.03-2.09], parainfluenza virus [3.46, 1.64-7.26], adenovirus [1.99, 1.08-3.68], enterovirus [2.32, 1.20-4.46], Haemophilus influenzae [1.72, 1.25-2.37], Klebsiella pneumoniae [2.66, 1.59-4.46], or high-density (> 6.9 log10 copies/mL) Streptococcus pneumoniae [1.53, 1.01-2.32] were associated with LRTI. Using 16S sequencing, LRTI was associated with increased relative abundance of Haemophilus (q = 0.0003) and decreased relative abundance of Dolosigranulum (q = 0.001), Corynebacterium (q = 0.091) and Neisseria (q = 0.004). In samples positive for RSV, Staphylococcus and Alloprevotella were present at lower relative abundance in cases than controls. In samples positive for parainfluenza virus or HRV, Haemophilus was present at higher relative abundance in cases.
    UNASSIGNED: The associations between bacterial taxa and LRTI are strikingly similar to those identified in high-income countries, suggesting a conserved phenotype. RSV was the major virus associated with LRTI. H. influenzae appears to be the major bacterial driver of LRTI, acting synergistically with viruses. The Gram-positive bacteria Dolosigranulum and Corynebacteria may protect against LRTI, while Staphylococcus was associated with reduced risk of RSV-related LRTI.
    UNASSIGNED: National Institutes of Health of the USA, Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, National Research Foundation South Africa, South African Medical Research Council, L\'Oréal-UNESCO For Women in Science South Africa, Australian National Health and Medical Research Council.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    背景:病毒性喘息是哮喘的重要危险因素,包括几种呼吸表型。我们试图了解早期喘息性疾病的病因是否与儿童呼吸道和哮喘表型有关。
    方法:前瞻性收集了10岁以下城市环境与儿童哮喘(URECA)出生队列研究中429名儿童的数据。在生命的头3年中,我们确定了喘息性疾病和相应的病毒病因(鼻粘液的PCR检测)。根据喘息的轨迹,在10岁时确定了6种呼吸健康表型,过敏性致敏,和肺功能。我们将早期喘息性疾病的病因与这些喘息呼吸道表型和哮喘的发展进行了比较。
    结果:在生命的前3年,在研究队列中记录的483例喘息发作中,324例(67%)中检测到至少一种病毒.使用分层划分,我们发现非病毒性喘息发作占7岁和10岁哮喘诊断的最大差异(分别为8.0%和5.8%)。鼻病毒喘息性疾病解释了呼吸道表型结果的最大差异,其次是10岁时的非病毒性喘息发作(分别为4.9%和3.9%)。
    结论:在这个早期生活的高风险城市居住队列中,非病毒性喘息发作常被发现,并与哮喘发展相关.尽管鼻病毒喘息性疾病与表型结果的相关性最大,生命早期喘息发作的具体病因提供了关于随后喘息表型的有限信息.
    BACKGROUND: Viral wheezing is an important risk factor for asthma, which comprises several respiratory phenotypes. We sought to understand if the etiology of early-life wheezing illnesses relates to childhood respiratory and asthma phenotypes.
    METHODS: Data were collected prospectively on 429 children in the Urban Environment and Childhood Asthma (URECA) birth cohort study through age 10 years. We identified wheezing illnesses and the corresponding viral etiology (PCR testing of nasal mucus) during the first 3 years of life. Six phenotypes of respiratory health were identified at 10 years of age based on trajectories of wheezing, allergic sensitization, and lung function. We compared the etiology of early wheezing illnesses to these wheezing respiratory phenotypes and the development of asthma.
    RESULTS: In the first 3 years of life, at least one virus was detected in 324 (67%) of the 483 wheezing episodes documented in the study cohort. Using hierarchical partitioning we found that non-viral wheezing episodes accounted for the greatest variance in asthma diagnosed at both 7 and 10 years of age (8.0% and 5.8% respectively). Rhinovirus wheezing illnesses explained the most variance in respiratory phenotype outcome followed by non-viral wheezing episodes (4.9% and 3.9% respectively) at 10 years of age.
    CONCLUSIONS: Within this high-risk urban-residing cohort in early life, non-viral wheezing episodes were frequently identified and associated with asthma development. Though rhinovirus wheezing illnesses had the greatest association with phenotype outcome, the specific etiology of wheezing episodes in early life provided limited information about subsequent wheezing phenotypes.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    目的:我们的目的是评估肌肉质量对晚期HCC患者总生存期(OS)的影响。
    方法:这是SORAMIC试验的亚分析。总的来说,包括363例患者。SIRT/索拉非尼治疗组包括182名患者和索拉非尼组181名患者。肌萎缩症定义为体重指数为24.9kg/m2的患者骨骼肌密度(SMD)<41HU,体重指数≥25kg/m2的患者<33HU。白蛋白-标准评分计算如下:血清白蛋白(g/dL)×SMD(HU)。为了评估肌肉质量对临床变量和OS的影响,使用Cox回归模型。危险比与95%置信区间(95%CI)一起呈现。Kaplan-Meier曲线用于生存分析。
    结果:在SIRT/索拉非尼队列中,低白蛋白量表评分是OS较差的独立预测因子,HR=1.74,CI95%(1.16-2.62),p=0.01。在索拉非尼队列中,肌肉质量参数不能预测OS。在酒精诱导的肝癌(n=129),肌肉骨化独立预测OS,HR=1.85,CI95%(1.10;3.12),p=0.02。在病毒诱导的肝癌(n=99),肌肉质量参数不能预测OS。在NASH/非酒精性脂肪性肝病(NAFLD)诱导的HCC患者中,在接受SIRT和索拉非尼联合治疗的亚组中,白蛋白-gauge评分是OS恶化的强独立预测因子,HR=9.86,CI95%(1.12;86.5),p=0.04。
    结论:在接受SIRT和索拉非尼联合治疗的酒精诱导的HCC患者中,肌萎缩症独立预测OS恶化。在接受SIRT和索拉非尼治疗的NASH/NAFLD诱导的HCC患者中,白蛋白量表评分可独立预测操作系统恶化。
    肌肉质量参数和OS之间的关联根据HCC的治疗策略和病因而不同。这些发现突出了晚期HCC患者骨骼肌质量的预后潜力。
    OBJECTIVE: Our purpose was to assess the impact of muscle quality on overall survival (OS) in patients with advanced HCC.
    METHODS: This is a subanalysis of the SORAMIC trial. Overall, 363 patients were included. The SIRT/Sorafenib treatment group comprised 182 patients and the sorafenib group 181 patients. Myosteatosis was defined as skeletal muscle density (SMD) < 41 HU for patients with a body mass index up to 24.9 kg/m2 and <33 HU for patients with a body mass index ≥25 kg/m2. Albumin-gauge score was calculated as follows: serum albumin (g/dL) × SMD (HU). To assess the impact of muscle quality on clinical variables and OS, a Cox regression model was used. Hazard ratios are presented together with 95 % confidence intervals (95 % CI). Kaplan-Meier curves were used for survival analysis.
    RESULTS: In the SIRT/sorafenib cohort, low albumin-gauge score was an independent predictor of worse OS, HR = 1.74, CI 95% (1.16-2.62), p = 0.01. In the sorafenib cohort, muscle quality parameters did not predict OS. In alcohol-induced HCC (n = 129), myosteatosis independently predicted OS, HR = 1.85, CI 95% (1.10; 3.12), p = 0.02. In viral-induced HCC (n = 99), parameters of muscle quality did not predict OS. In patients with NASH/Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) induced HCC, albumin-gauge score was a strong independent predictor of worse OS in the subgroup undergoing combined treatment with SIRT and sorafenib, HR = 9.86, CI 95% (1.12; 86.5), p = 0.04.
    CONCLUSIONS: Myosteatosis predicts independently worse OS in patients with alcohol-induced HCC undergoing combined treatment with SIRT and sorafenib. In patients with NASH/NAFLD induced HCC undergoing treatment with SIRT and sorafenib, albumin-gauge score predicts independently worse OS.
    UNASSIGNED: Associations between parameters of muscle quality and OS are different in accordance to the treatment strategy and etiology of HCC. These findings highlight the prognostic potential of skeletal muscle quality in patients with advanced HCC.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    肝细胞癌(HCC)是原发性肝肿瘤中最常见的(90%),也是癌症相关死亡的主要原因之一。它通常在长期发炎的环境中发展,从代偿性实质再生到纤维化和肝硬化:在每个阶段都可能发生癌变。由慢性病毒感染决定的炎症(乙型肝炎,丙型肝炎,和丁型肝炎病毒)通过病毒直接损伤和免疫相关机制代表了HCC病因的重要危险因素。由病毒感染决定的生理性肝脏免疫网络的失调可导致致癌作用。最近引入的免疫疗法作为HCC的黄金标准一线治疗强调了免疫系统和炎症作为HCC致癌和治疗的双刃武器的作用。在这篇综述中,我们强调了炎症是病毒肝癌发生的关键,酒精和代谢性肝病。
    Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is the most frequent among primary liver tumors (90%) and one of the main causes of cancer-related death. It develops usually in a chronically inflamed environment, ranging from compensatory parenchymal regeneration to fibrosis and cirrhosis: carcinogenesis can potentially happen in each of these stages. Inflammation determined by chronic viral infection (hepatitis B, hepatitis C, and hepatitis delta viruses) represents an important risk factor for HCC etiology through both viral direct damage and immune-related mechanisms. The deregulation of the physiological liver immunological network determined by viral infection can lead to carcinogenesis. The recent introduction of immunotherapy as the gold-standard first-line treatment for HCC highlights the role of the immune system and inflammation as a double-edged weapon in both HCC carcinogenesis and treatment. In this review we highlight how the inflammation is the key for the hepatocarcinogenesis in viral, alcohol and metabolic liver diseases.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    背景:2019年冠状病毒(COVID-19)急性呼吸窘迫综合征(ARDS)患者的呼气末正压(PEEP)策略仍存在争议。大多数研究源于大流行的最初浪潮。在这里,我们旨在评估高PEEP/低FiO2通气对荷兰第二波中结果的影响。
    方法:第二波有创通气COVID-19患者的回顾性观察性研究。根据ARDS网络表,根据接受高PEEP还是低PEEP通气对患者进行分类。主要结果是ICU死亡率,次要结局包括住院和90天死亡率,通风时间和停留时间,以及肾损伤的发生。进行倾向匹配以校正已知与ICU死亡率相关的因素。
    结果:该分析包括790例COVID-ARDS患者。在ICU出院时,142例高PEEP患者中有32例(22.5%)死亡,848例低PEEP患者中有254例(39.2%)死亡(HR0.66[0.46-0.96];P=0.03)。高PEEP与次要结局改善有关。匹配的分析没有改变结果。
    结论:高PEEP通气与COVID-ARDS患者ICU生存率改善相关。
    BACKGROUND: The positive end-expiratory pressure (PEEP) strategy in patients with coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) remains debated. Most studies originate from the initial waves of the pandemic. Here we aimed to assess the impact of high PEEP/low FiO2 ventilation on outcomes during the second wave in the Netherlands.
    METHODS: Retrospective observational study of invasively ventilated COVID-19 patients during the second wave. Patients were categorized based on whether they received high PEEP or low PEEP ventilation according to the ARDS Network tables. The primary outcome was ICU mortality, and secondary outcomes included hospital and 90-day mortality, duration of ventilation and length of stay, and the occurrence of kidney injury. Propensity matching was performed to correct for factors with a known relationship to ICU mortality.
    RESULTS: This analysis included 790 COVID-ARDS patients. At ICU discharge, 32 (22.5%) out of 142 high PEEP patients and 254 (39.2%) out of 848 low PEEP patients had died (HR 0.66 [0.46-0.96]; P = 0.03). High PEEP was linked to improved secondary outcomes. Matched analysis did not change findings.
    CONCLUSIONS: High PEEP ventilation was associated with improved ICU survival in patients with COVID-ARDS.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    背景:在结合疫苗时代,病毒是脑膜炎的最常见原因。这里,我们评估了英格兰所有年龄组11年期间实验室确诊的病毒性脑膜炎的流行病学趋势.
    方法:在英国,医院实验室定期以电子方式向英国卫生安全局报告实验室确认的感染。提取了2013-2023年期间脑脊液中病毒检测阳性的记录。使用年中常住人口估计值计算具有置信区间的发病率。
    结果:有22,114例实验室确诊的病毒性脑膜炎病例,包括2013-19年期间的15299例(新冠肺炎之前),发病率从3.5/100,00(95CI,3.3-3.6)逐渐增加到3.9/100,000(95CI,3.6-4.1)。在2020-21年期间,当大流行限制到位时,有2061例(1.8/100,000;1.7-1.9),在2022-23年间(大流行后限制)增加到4754(4.2/100,000;4.0-4.3)。年龄<3个月的婴儿占所有病例的39.4%(8,702/22,048),2013-19年发病率稳定(504/100,000,95CI:491-517),随后在2020-21年期间大幅下降(204/100,000;188-221),然后在2022-23年期间上升(780/100,000;749-812),肠道病毒是最常见的原因(84.9%,7387/8,702;424.74/100,000;95CI,415.12-434.51),其次是副病毒(9.1%,792/8702;45.54/100,000;95CI,42.42-48.82)和单纯疱疹病毒(4.4%,380/8702;21.85/100,000;95CI,19.71-24.16)。大流行限制与肠道病毒(77.7%)和部分病毒(低64%)的发病率显着下降有关,社会限制解除后反弹。
    结论:自社会限制解除以来,病毒性脑膜炎的发病率已恢复到大流行前的水平。病毒性脑膜炎的发病率最高的仍然是3个月以下的婴儿,最常见的原因是肠病毒感染。
    BACKGROUND: In the conjugate vaccine era, viruses are the most common cause of meningitis. Here, we evaluated epidemiological trends in laboratory-confirmed viral meningitis across all age-groups over an 11-year period in England.
    METHODS: In England, hospital laboratories routinely report laboratory-confirmed infections electronically to the UK Health Security Agency. Records of positive viral detections in cerebrospinal fluid during 2013-2023 were extracted. Incidence rates with confidence intervals were calculated using mid-year resident population estimates.
    RESULTS: There were 22,114 laboratory-confirmed viral meningitis cases, including 15,299 cases during 2013-19 (pre COVID-19), with a gradual increase in incidence from 3.5/100,00 (95%CI: 3.3-3.6) to 3.9/100,000 (95%CI: 3.6-4.1). During 2020-21 when pandemic restrictions were in place, there were 2061 cases (1.8/100,000; 1.7-1.9), which increased to 4754 (4.2/100,000; 4.0-4.3) during 2022-23 (post pandemic restrictions). Infants aged <3 months accounted for 39.4% (8702/22,048) of all cases, with a stable incidence 2013-19 (504/100,000, 95%CI: 491-517), followed by a significant decline during 2020-21 (204/100,000; 188-221) and then an increase during 2022-23 (780/100,000; 749-812), with enteroviruses being the commonest cause (84.9%, 7387/8702; 424.74/100,000; 95%CI: 415.12-434.51), followed by parechoviruses (9.1%, 792/8702; 45.54/100,000; 95%CI: 42.42-48.82) and herpes simplex virus (4.4%, 380/8702; 21.85/100,000; 95%CI: 19.71-24.16). Pandemic restrictions were associated with significant declines in the incidence of enterovirus (77.7%) and parechoviruses (64% lower), with rebounds after societal restrictions were lifted.
    CONCLUSIONS: Rates of viral meningitis have returned to pre-pandemic levels since societal restrictions were lifted. The highest incidence of viral meningitis remains in infants aged <3 months and most commonly due to enteroviral infection.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    新兴病毒对人类健康和全球经济构成重大威胁。在过去的二十年里,已经出现了三种不同的冠状病毒,引起了全球公共卫生问题。高通量基因组和转录组学技术的出现促进了病毒-宿主相互作用的研究,加速诊断的发展,疫苗,和治疗学。这里,我们在病毒-宿主相互作用的研究中描述了定量PCR(qPCR),以剖析宿主反应和病毒动力学以及它们之间的关系。
    Emerging viruses pose significant threats to human health and the global economy. In the past two decades, three different coronaviruses have emerged to cause worldwide public health concerns. The advent of high throughput genomic and transcriptomic technologies facilitated the study of virus-host interactions, accelerating the development of diagnostics, vaccines, and therapeutics. Here, we describe quantitative PCR (qPCR) in studies of virus-host interactions to dissect host responses and viral kinetics and how these relate to one another.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    在没有“黄金标准”的情况下,我们为一项转录组宿主反应(HR)试验的注册试验制定了标准化的临床裁定程序.两名医生独立审查了临床数据,以裁定急诊科患者中细菌和病毒感染的存在和来源。不和谐的病例由第三位医生解决。955例中细菌的一致性为74.1%(708/955),75.6%(722/955)用于病毒感染,和71.2%(680/955)。大多数不一致是轻微的(85.2%;409/480)与中度的(11.7%;56/480)或完全的(3.3%;16/480)。细菌性皮肤和软组织感染(8.2%)和病毒性呼吸道感染(4.5%)的一致性水平最低。这种强大的裁决过程可用于评估监管机构的HR测试和其他诊断,并对临床医生进行教育。实验室人员,和临床研究人员。Clinicaltrials.govNCT04094818.总结:如果没有评估主机响应测试的黄金标准,临床判定是一个可靠的参考标准,在诊断注册临床研究中,对于确定真实感染状态至关重要.
    In absence of a \"gold standard\", a standardized clinical adjudication process was developed for a registrational trial of a transcriptomic host response (HR) test. Two physicians independently reviewed clinical data to adjudicate presence and source of bacterial and viral infections in emergency department patients. Discordant cases were resolved by a third physician. Agreement among 955 cases was 74.1% (708/955) for bacterial, 75.6% (722/955) for viral infections, and 71.2% (680/955) overall. Most discordances were minor (85.2%; 409/480) versus moderate (11.7%; 56/480) or complete (3.3%; 16/480). Concordance levels were lowest for bacterial skin and soft tissue infections (8.2%) and for viral respiratory tract infections (4.5%). This robust adjudication process can be used to evaluate HR tests and other diagnostics by regulatory agencies and for educating clinicians, laboratorians, and clinical researchers. Clinicaltrials.gov NCT04094818. SUMMARY: Without a gold standard for evaluating host response tests, clinical adjudication is a robust reference standard that is essential to determine the true infection status in diagnostic registrational clinical studies.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    这项研究旨在预测早期肺炎病变增加的患者2019年严重冠状病毒病(COVID-19)的进展。利用基于人工智能(AI)的量化计算机断层扫描(CT)开发了简化的列线图。
    2019年12月17日至2020年2月20日,荆州市中心医院共有246例确诊COVID-19感染,湖北省,中国。在这些病人中,93人病情轻微,在7天内进行了随访检查,其中61例在CT扫描上有扩大的病灶。我们在7天内从两次检查中收集了中性粒细胞与淋巴细胞比率(NLR)和三个定量CT特征。肺炎病灶的三种定量CT特征,包括毛玻璃不透明度体积(GV),半固结体积(SV),和整合量(CV),使用AI自动计算。此外,还计算了病变的变异体积.最后,使用多变量逻辑回归模型建立列线图.为了简化模型,我们根据四分位数和曲线拟合结果对所有病变体积进行了分类.
    在93名患者中,61例患者在7天内在CT上显示肿大的病灶,其中19人(31.1%)患有严重疾病。多变量逻辑回归模型包括年龄,NLR第二次,病变体积的增加,7天内SV和CV的变化。个性化预测列线图在样本中表现出很强的辨别力,曲线下面积(AUC)和受试者工作特征曲线(ROC)为0.961,95%置信区间(CI)为0.917-1.000。决策曲线分析表明,基于定量AI的列线图在临床上很有用。
    CT定量变化的整合,NLR,该模型中的年龄和年龄在预测COVID-19早期肺炎病变患者向重症疾病的进展方面表现出有希望的表现。这种综合方法具有协助临床决策的潜力。
    UNASSIGNED: This study aimed to predict severe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) progression in patients with increased pneumonia lesions in the early days. A simplified nomogram was developed utilizing artificial intelligence (AI)-based quantified computed tomography (CT).
    UNASSIGNED: From 17 December 2019 to 20 February 2020, a total of 246 patients were confirmed COVID-19 infected in Jingzhou Central Hospital, Hubei Province, China. Of these patients, 93 were mildly ill and had follow-up examinations in 7 days, and 61 of them had enlarged lesions on CT scans. We collected the neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) and three quantitative CT features from two examinations within 7 days. The three quantitative CT features of pneumonia lesions, including ground-glass opacity volume (GV), semi-consolidation volume (SV), and consolidation volume (CV), were automatically calculated using AI. Additionally, the variation volumes of the lesions were also computed. Finally, a nomogram was developed using a multivariable logistic regression model. To simplify the model, we classified all the lesion volumes based on quartiles and curve fitting results.
    UNASSIGNED: Among the 93 patients, 61 patients showed enlarged lesions on CT within 7 days, of whom 19 (31.1%) developed any severe illness. The multivariable logistic regression model included age, NLR on the second time, an increase in lesion volume, and changes in SV and CV in 7 days. The personalized prediction nomogram demonstrated strong discrimination in the sample, with an area under curve (AUC) and the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) of 0.961 and a 95% confidence interval (CI) of 0.917-1.000. Decision curve analysis illustrated that a nomogram based on quantitative AI was clinically useful.
    UNASSIGNED: The integration of CT quantitative changes, NLR, and age in this model exhibits promising performance in predicting the progression to severe illness in COVID-19 patients with early-stage pneumonia lesions. This comprehensive approach holds the potential to assist clinical decision-making.
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