■随着开发通用冠状病毒疫苗的努力,也被称为泛冠状病毒疫苗,现在是提供潜在资助者的时候了,研究人员,和制造商关于这种疫苗的潜在价值以及该值如何随着不同的疫苗和疫苗接种特征而变化的指导。
■使用代表美国(U.S.)人口的计算模型,SARS-CoV-2的传播以及COVID-19的各种临床和经济结果,例如住院,死亡,质量调整生命年(QALYs)损失,生产力损失,直接医疗费用,和社会总成本,我们探讨了通用疫苗在不同情况下的影响.我们使用CDC报告的数据以及在COVID-19大流行期间进行的观察性研究来开发和填充该模型。
在美国,泛冠状病毒疫苗作为独立干预措施将节省成本,只要其疫苗效力≥10%,疫苗接种覆盖率≥10%。10%至50%的疗效每提高1%,就可以避免额外的395,000感染,并节省10亿美元的社会总成本(生产力损失4530万美元,直接医疗费用11亿美元)。即使随后可以获得毒株特异性冠状病毒疫苗,它仍将节省成本,只要它需要至少2-3个月的发展,test,并将更具体的疫苗推向市场。
■我们的结果为泛冠状病毒疫苗的开发和储存提供了支持,并有助于描绘疫苗特征,以旨在开发这种疫苗。
■美国国家科学基金会,医疗保健研究和质量机构,国家普通医学科学研究所,国家促进转化科学中心,和纽约城市大学。
UNASSIGNED: With efforts underway to develop a
universal coronavirus vaccine, otherwise known as a pan-coronavirus vaccine, this is the time to offer potential funders, researchers, and manufacturers guidance on the potential value of such a vaccine and how this value may change with differing vaccine and vaccination characteristics.
UNASSIGNED: Using a computational model representing the United States (U.S.) population, the spread of SARS-CoV-2 and the various clinical and economic outcomes of COVID-19 such as hospitalisations, deaths, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) lost, productivity losses, direct medical costs, and total societal costs, we explored the impact of a
universal vaccine under different circumstances. We developed and populated this model using data reported by the CDC as well as observational studies conducted during the COVID-19 pandemic.
UNASSIGNED: A pan-coronavirus vaccine would be cost saving in the U.S. as a standalone intervention as long as its vaccine efficacy is ≥10% and vaccination coverage is ≥10%. Every 1% increase in efficacy between 10% and 50% could avert an additional 395,000 infections and save $1.0 billion in total societal costs ($45.3 million in productivity losses, $1.1 billion in direct medical costs). It would remain cost saving even when a strain-specific coronavirus vaccine would be subsequently available, as long as it takes at least 2-3 months to develop, test, and bring that more specific vaccine to the market.
UNASSIGNED: Our results provide support for the development and stockpiling of a pan-coronavirus vaccine and help delineate the vaccine characteristics to aim for in development of such a vaccine.
UNASSIGNED: The National Science Foundation, the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality, the National Institute of General Medical Sciences, the National Center for Advancing Translational Sciences, and the City University of New York.