uncertainty

不确定性
  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    多微电网(MMGs)的能源管理(EM)解决方案是提供更多灵活性的关键任务,可靠性,和经济效益。然而,由于这些资源的随机性以及负载波动,MMGs的能源管理(EM)成为可再生能源高渗透率的复杂而艰巨的任务。在这方面,本文旨在解决光伏(PV)系统最优包含的MMGs的EM问题,风力涡轮机(WT),和生物质系统。在这方面,本文提出了一种增强型水母搜索优化器(EJSO),用于解决85总线MMGS系统的MMGs的EM,以最小化总成本,同时提高系统性能。所提出的算法基于Weibull飞行运动(WFM)和适应距离平衡(FDB)机制,以解决常规JSO技术的停滞问题。在标准和CEC2019基准测试函数上测试EJSO的性能,并将获得的结果与优化技术进行比较。根据获得的结果,与沙猫群优化(SCSO)等其他优化方法相比,EJSO是解决EM的强大方法,蒲公英优化器(DO),灰狼优化器(GWO),鲸鱼优化算法(WOA),和标准的水母搜索优化器(JSO)。结果表明,所提出的EJSO的EM解决方案可以降低成本44.75%,而系统电压分布和稳定性分别提高40.8%和10.56%,分别。
    The energy management (EM) solution of the multi-microgrids (MMGs) is a crucial task to provide more flexibility, reliability, and economic benefits. However, the energy management (EM) of the MMGs became a complex and strenuous task with high penetration of renewable energy resources due to the stochastic nature of these resources along with the load fluctuations. In this regard, this paper aims to solve the EM problem of the MMGs with the optimal inclusion of photovoltaic (PV) systems, wind turbines (WTs), and biomass systems. In this regard, this paper proposed an enhanced Jellyfish Search Optimizer (EJSO) for solving the EM of MMGs for the 85-bus MMGS system to minimize the total cost, and the system performance improvement concurrently. The proposed algorithm is based on the Weibull Flight Motion (WFM) and the Fitness Distance Balance (FDB) mechanisms to tackle the stagnation problem of the conventional JSO technique. The performance of the EJSO is tested on standard and CEC 2019 benchmark functions and the obtained results are compared to optimization techniques. As per the obtained results, EJSO is a powerful method for solving the EM compared to other optimization method like Sand Cat Swarm Optimization (SCSO), Dandelion Optimizer (DO), Grey Wolf Optimizer (GWO), Whale Optimization Algorithm (WOA), and the standard Jellyfish Search Optimizer (JSO). The obtained results reveal that the EM solution by the suggested EJSO can reduce the cost by 44.75% while the system voltage profile and stability are enhanced by 40.8% and 10.56%, respectively.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    背景:胰腺囊性肿瘤(PCN)被认为是胰腺腺癌的癌前病变。对不需要手术治疗的个体的管理涉及监测以评估癌症进展。对患者的经验以及对这些病变的监测生活的影响知之甚少。
    目的:探讨PCNs监测患者的生活经验。
    方法:对英国接受胰腺囊性肿瘤监测的患者进行半结构化定性访谈。年龄,性别,使用监测时间和监测方法对患者组进行有目的地采样.使用反身性主题分析对数据进行了分析。
    结果:PCN诊断是偶然和意外的,对于某些人来说,破坏性体验的开始。患者如何理解他们的PCN诊断受到他们对胰腺癌的现有理解的影响。临床医生的解释和共存健康问题的存在。对诊断及其对未来的意义缺乏了解,导致了PCN人群不确定性的总体主题。对PCN的监测可以被视为提醒人们对PCN和癌症的恐惧,或者作为一个让人放心的机会。
    结论:目前,接受PCNs监测的患者在没有立即治疗的情况下,缺乏对预后不确定的诊断的支持.需要更多的研究来确定该人群的需求,以改善患者护理并减少负面体验。
    BACKGROUND: Pancreatic cystic neoplasms (PCN) are considered premalignant conditions to pancreatic adenocarcinoma with varying degrees of cancerous potential. Management for individuals who do not require surgical treatment involves surveillance to assess for cancerous progression. Little is known about patients\' experience and the impact of living with surveillance for these lesions.
    OBJECTIVE: To explore the experiences of patients living with surveillance for PCNs.
    METHODS: Semi-structured qualitative interviews were conducted with patients under surveillance for pancreatic cystic neoplasms in the UK. Age, gender, time from surveillance and surveillance method were used to purposively sample the patient group. Data were analysed using reflexive thematic analysis.
    RESULTS: A PCN diagnosis is incidental and unexpected and for some, the beginning of a disruptive experience. How patients make sense of their PCN diagnosis is influenced by their existing understanding of pancreatic cancer, explanations from clinicians and the presence of coexisting health concerns. A lack of understanding of the diagnosis and its meaning for their future led to an overarching theme of uncertainty for the PCN population. Surveillance for PCN could be seen as a reminder of fears of PCN and cancer, or as an opportunity for reassurance.
    CONCLUSIONS: Currently, individuals living with surveillance for PCNs experience uncertainty with a lack of support in making sense of a prognostically uncertain diagnosis with no immediate treatment. More research is needed to identify the needs of this population to make improvements to patient care and reduce negative experiences.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    背景:严重创伤是导致中国45岁以下人群死亡的主要因素,这需要入住重症监护病房(ICU)接受综合治疗。在ICU住院期间遭受意外和危及生命的创伤的患者的家庭成员经常由于疾病的不确定性而经历社会心理困扰。先前的研究表明,家庭功能和心理弹性与疾病不确定性有关,分别。然而,对家庭功能的现状和相互作用机制知之甚少,心理韧性,ICU创伤患者家属的疾病不确定感。因此,本研究主要探讨ICU创伤患者家属中这三个因素的现状及其相互关系。
    方法:本横断面调查采用便利抽样的方法,其中包括来自重庆34家医院的230名ICU创伤患者家属,中国。通过自我报告问卷提取相关数据,其中包括社会人口统计学特征问卷,家庭适应性,伙伴关系,增长,情感和决心量表(APGAR),10项Connor-Davidson弹性量表(10-CD-RISC)和Mishel的家庭成员疾病不确定性量表(MUIS-FM)。进行Pearson相关分析以检验各变量之间的相关性。此外,采用结构方程模型评估心理弹性对家庭功能和疾病不确定感的中介作用.
    结果:根据我们的结果,ICU创伤患者的家庭成员经历了较高的疾病不确定感,中度家庭功能障碍和较低的心理弹性。ICU创伤患者家属的家庭功能直接影响疾病不确定感,并通过心理韧性间接影响疾病不确定感。
    结论:家庭功能和心理弹性是降低疾病不确定感的保护因素。医疗保健提供者应采取有效措施,包括改善家庭功能和以复原力为重点的干预措施,减轻ICU创伤患者家属的疾病不确定感。
    BACKGROUND: Severe trauma accounts for a main factor inducing mortality for individuals aged < 45 years in China, which requires admission to intensive care unit (ICU) to receive comprehensive treatment. Family members of patients with unanticipated and life-threatening trauma during their ICU stays often experience psychosocial distress due to illness uncertainty. Previous research has shown that family function and psychological resilience are associated with illness uncertainty, respectively. However, little is known about the current situation and interacting mechanism between family function, psychological resilience, and illness uncertainty of family members for ICU trauma patients. Therefore, this study focused on exploring the current situation and relationships between these three factors in family members for ICU trauma patients.
    METHODS: The convenience sampling approach was adopted in the present cross-sectional survey, which involved 230 family members for ICU trauma patients from 34 hospitals in Chongqing, China. Related data were extracted with self-reporting questionnaires, which included sociodemographic characteristic questionnaire, the Family Adaptability, Partnership, Growth, Affection and Resolve Scale (APGAR), the 10-item Connor-Davidson Resilience Scale (10-CD-RISC) and the Mishel\'s Illness Uncertainty Scale for Family Members (MUIS-FM). Pearson correlation analysis was conducted to examine the correlations between various variables. Additionally, a structural equation model was adopted to assess the mediating effect of psychological resilience on family function and illness uncertainty.
    RESULTS: According to our results, family members for ICU trauma patients experienced high illness uncertainty with moderate family dysfunction and low psychological resilience. Family function directly affected illness uncertainty and indirectly affected illness uncertainty through psychological resilience in family members of ICU trauma patients.
    CONCLUSIONS: Family function and psychological resilience are the protective factors for reducing illness uncertainty. Healthcare providers should take effective measures, including family-functioning improvement and resilience-focused interventions, for alleviating illness uncertainty in family members of ICU trauma patients.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    地下水监测数据可能容易出现错误和偏差,由于各种因素,如钻孔和设备故障,或人为错误。这些不准确会危及地下水系统,导致效率降低,并可能导致监控系统的部分或完全故障。传统的异常检测方法,依赖于统计和时变技术,努力处理异常的复杂性和动态性。随着人工智能的进步以及不同部门对有效异常检测和预防的需求日益增长,人工神经网络方法正在出现,能够通过考虑时间和上下文方面来识别更复杂的异常。尽管如此,对地下水异常检测的综合研究仍然不足。来自地下水的顺序数据的复杂模式提出了许多挑战,需要结合数学的复杂建模技术,统计数据,和机器学习的可行解决方案。本文介绍了一种用于通过概率方法检测地下水监测数据异常的高精度和高效计算的模型。我们采用蒙特卡罗方法和SEAWAT数值模拟来确定地下水盐度的不确定性。随后,训练和评估了长短期记忆(LSTM)-自动编码器模型,形成异常检测框架的基础。通过LSTM-自动编码器使用负对数似然(NLL)评分和预定阈值来评估每条训练数据,以确定数据的异常百分比。对所提出的LSTM-Autoencoder算法的精度评估表明,该方法取得了良好的性能,异常检测准确率为98.47%。
    Groundwater monitoring data can be prone to errors and biases due to various factors like borehole and equipment malfunctions, or human mistakes. These inaccuracies can jeopardize the groundwater system, leading to reduced efficiency and potentially causing partial or complete failures in the monitoring system. Traditional anomaly detection methods, which rely on statistical and time-variant techniques, struggle to handle the complex and dynamic nature of anomalies. With advancements in artificial intelligence and the growing need for effective anomaly detection and prevention across different sectors, artificial neural network methods are emerging as capable of identifying more intricate anomalies by considering both temporal and contextual aspects. Nonetheless, there is still a shortage of comprehensive studies on groundwater anomaly detection. The intricate patterns of sequential data from groundwater present numerous challenges, necessitating sophisticated modeling techniques that combine mathematics, statistics, and machine learning for viable solutions. This paper introduces a model designed for high accuracy and efficient computation in detecting anomalies in groundwater monitoring data through a probabilistic approach. We employed the Monte Carlo method and SEAWAT numerical simulation to ascertain the uncertainty in groundwater salinity. Subsequently, a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM)-Autoencoder model was trained and evaluated, forming the basis of an anomaly detection framework. Each piece of training data was assessed by the LSTM-Autoencoder using the Negative Log Likelihood (NLL) score and a predefined threshold to determine the data\'s abnormality percentage. The accuracy evaluation of the proposed LSTM-Autoencoder algorithm revealed that this approach achieved commendable performance, with an accuracy of 98.47% in anomaly detection.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    背景:欧洲肿瘤药物的报销过程发生在一个复杂的决策过程中,成员国之间存在差异。国家之间的区别引发了社会辩论,因为有必要平衡获得药品和卫生系统的可持续性。
    目的:我们旨在审查与欧洲肿瘤药物的报销决定或卫生技术署推荐相关因素的证据。
    方法:从开始到2023年8月,在两个数据库中进行了系统的文献检索。成对地进行筛选和数据提取。
    结果:纳入了13篇文章,涵盖了来自11个国家的数据。七篇文章表明,具有成本效益的(C-E)药物和较低的成本效益增量比(ICER)具有较高的报销可能性。疾病的严重程度可能会影响财务协议的报销决定。临床结果的改善,显著的临床获益(p<0.01)或总生存期增加(p<0.05)呈正相关.孤儿药物指定的影响因国家而异,但积极的决定通常是在特定条件下实现的。临床和C-E不确定性经常导致通过财务协议或基于结果的条件进行报销。社会人口因素:社会医疗保险制度,较高的国内生产总值和较大的老年人口与报销呈正相关(p<0.01)。
    结论:需要进一步研究欧洲报销决定的关键决定因素,并开发能够有效解决和克服成本和有效性不确定性的药物获取模型。
    BACKGROUND: Reimbursement process of oncology drugs in Europe occurs within a complex decision-making process that varies between Member States. Distinctions between the States trigger societal debates since it is necessary to balance access to medicines and health systems sustainability.
    OBJECTIVE: We aimed to review the evidence concerning factors associated with the reimbursement decision or Health Technology Agency recommendation of oncology drugs in Europe.
    METHODS: A systematic literature search was performed in two databases from inception to august 2023. Screening and data extraction were performed by pairs.
    RESULTS: Thirteen articles were included and encompassed data from 11 nations. Seven articles showed that cost-effective (C-E) drugs and lower Incremental Cost-Effectiveness Ratios (ICERs) had higher likelihood of reimbursement. Disease severity might influence the reimbursement decision with financial agreements. Improvement in clinical outcomes, substantial clinical benefit (p < 0.01) or overall survival gains (p < 0.05) were positively associated. Orphan drug designation impact varies between countries but positive decisions are usually achieved under specific conditions. Clinical and C-E uncertainty frequently led to reimbursement with financial agreements or outcomes-based conditions. Sociodemographic factors as: social health insurance system, higher Gross Domestic Product and larger elderly population were positively associated with reimbursement (p < 0.01).
    CONCLUSIONS: There is a need for further research into key determinants of reimbursement decisions in Europe and the development of drug access models that can effectively address and overcome costs and effectiveness uncertainties.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    尽管全球范围内的不确定期(COVID-19)已经结束,在有明显外观问题(SAC)的人中存在适应不良经历的遗产,需要照顾和注意。
    使用Giddens\'本体安全的概念,我们探索了人们以前是如何经历SAC的,期间和“自”COVID-19。定性调查使我们能够从跨国的个人中捕捉到不同的观点,以本体论安全为理论基础,采用演绎反身主题分析进行分析。
    名为“更多镜像(ed)时间”和“锁定”的主题,关闭,和“拒之门外”通过社会限制时代,为该群体的具体经历提供了背景依据,主题“重新定义相关性”探讨了COVID-19的持续遗产-以及持续的全球不确定性,如经济困难和战争-影响SAC人民的福祉。
    拥有SAC的人仍然无法获得基本的医疗保健支持,因为提供医疗保健的人工作过度,资源不足,依赖有效的互动方法,如远程医疗,这可能是SAC患者的触发因素。护理提供者可能会考虑扩大对外观的关注,希望让可信赖的其他人参与到寻求护理的过程中,并利用数字健康以外的方式来支持SAC的人们。
    UNASSIGNED: Though a worldwide period of uncertainty (COVID-19) has \'ended\', there exists a legacy of maladaptive experiences among people with significant appearance concerns (SAC) that requires care and attention.
    UNASSIGNED: Using Giddens\' concept of ontological security, we explored how people experienced their SAC before, during and \"since\" COVID-19. Qualitative surveys allowed us to capture diverse perspectives from individuals transnationally, analysed with deductive reflexive thematic analysis using ontological security as our theoretical foundation.
    UNASSIGNED: Themes named \"More Mirror(ed) Time\" and \"Locked Out, Shut Down, and Shut Out\" gave a contextual grounding for the embodied experiences of this group through times of social restrictions, and the theme \"Redefining Relevance\" explored the continued legacy of COVID-19 - and continued global uncertainties such as economic hardship and warfare - that impact the wellbeing of people with SAC.
    UNASSIGNED: People with SAC are still \'locked out\' from essential healthcare support as those providing healthcare are overworked, under-resourced and rely on efficient interactive methods such as tele-health that may be triggers for people with SAC. Care providers may consider expanding appearance concerns verbiage, look to involve trusted others in the care-seeking process, and utilize modalities beyond digital health to support people with SAC.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    目的:分析感染COVID-19的护理专业人员所经历的不确定性。
    方法:这项定性研究是对20名因COVID-19患病的护理专业人员进行的。数据收集是通过半结构化访谈进行的;然后使用主题分析对数据进行组织,并在MerleMishel的疾病不确定性理论重新概念的背景下进行讨论。
    结果:该疾病的前身对感染COVID-19的护理专业人员的不确定性有很大影响。媒体对案件的报道越来越多,医疗系统的崩溃,高死亡率导致这种疾病与恐惧和恐慌联系在一起。
    结论:从疾病的前身的角度来看,来自COVID-19的护理专业人员的疾病强调了在成为专业人员之前,他们和其他人一样是人类,经历逆境,面对与生病相关的可能性。
    OBJECTIVE: To analyze the uncertainties experienced by nursing professionals who contracted COVID-19.
    METHODS: This qualitative research was conducted with 20 nursing professionals who fell ill from COVID-19. Data collection was carried out through semi-structured interviews; the data were then organized using thematic analysis and discussed in the context of Merle Mishel\'s Reconceptualized of Uncertainty in Illness Theory.
    RESULTS: The antecedents of the disease had a strong influence on how nursing professionals who contracted COVID-19 perceived uncertainty. The media coverage of the increasing number of cases, the collapse of the healthcare system, and the high mortality rate contributed to associating the disease with fear and panic.
    CONCLUSIONS: Viewing it from the perspective of the disease\'s antecedents, the illness of a nursing professional from COVID-19 underscores that before being professionals, they are human beings just like anyone else, undergoing adversities and facing the possibilities associated with being ill.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    背景:欧洲卫生技术评估法规(EUHTAR),自2022年1月起生效,旨在协调和提高成员国共同HTA的效率,从2025年1月开始分阶段实施。在实施该法规的准备阶段的“中期”,我们的目标是确定并优先考虑切实的行动要点。
    方法:在2023年欧洲接入学院(EAA)春季公约期间,来自不同国籍和利益相关方背景的参与者讨论了该条例实施的准备情况和剩余挑战,并确定了行动点并确定了优先次序。为此,参与者被分配到四个工作组:(I)卫生政策挑战,(二)利益相关者准备情况,(三)解决不确定性的方法和(四)关于方法论的挑战。确定了每个工作组的前四个行动点,随后在最后一次全体会议上由所有与会者进行排名。
    结果:该法规的总体“准备”被认为是中立的。优先行动点包括以下内容:卫生政策,即评估MS法律和卫生政策流程的可调整性;利益相关者,即能力建设;不确定性,即实施HTA指南作为活文件;方法论,即澄清人口,干预,比较器(s),结果(PICO)识别过程。
    结论:在准备阶段的“中期”,未来几个月的重点是执行EAA春季公约中确定的切实行动点。所有行动要点都围绕三个总体主题:协调和标准化,能力建设和合作,不确定性管理和稳健的数据。从长远来看,这些主题将最终决定EUHTAR的成功。
    BACKGROUND: The European Regulation on Health Technology Assessment (EU HTA R), effective since January 2022, aims to harmonize and improve the efficiency of common HTA across Member States (MS), with a phased implementation from January 2025. At \"midterms\" of the preparation phase for the implementation of the Regulation our aim was to identify and prioritize tangible action points to move forward.
    METHODS: During the 2023 Spring Convention of the European Access Academy (EAA), participants from different nationalities and stakeholder backgrounds discussed readiness and remaining challenges for the Regulation\'s implementation and identified and prioritized action points. For this purpose, participants were assigned to four working groups: (i) Health Policy Challenges, (ii) Stakeholder Readiness, (iii) Approach to Uncertainty and (iv) Challenges regarding Methodology. Top four action points for each working group were identified and subsequently ranked by all participants during the final plenary session.
    RESULTS: Overall \"readiness\" for the Regulation was perceived as neutral. Prioritized action points included the following: Health Policy, i.e. assess adjustability of MS laws and health policy processes; Stakeholders, i.e. capacity building; Uncertainty, i.e. implement HTA guidelines as living documents; Methodology, i.e. clarify the Population, Intervention, Comparator(s), Outcomes (PICO) identification process.
    CONCLUSIONS: At \"midterms\" of the preparation phase, the focus for the months to come is on executing the tangible action points identified at EAA\'s Spring Convention. All action points centre around three overarching themes: harmonization and standardization, capacity building and collaboration, uncertainty management and robust data. These themes will ultimately determine the success of the EU HTA R in the long run.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    药效学(PD)模型是包括药物作用机制的细胞反应网络的数学模型。这些模型可用于研究新型药物治疗的预测治疗结果。然而,已知PD模型对组成参数数据具有显著的不确定性,导致模型预测的不确定性。此外,校准这些模型的实验数据通常是有限的或无法用于新的途径。在这项研究中,我们提出了一种贝叶斯最优实验设计方法,以提高局部放电模型的预测精度。然后,我们使用模拟实验数据应用我们的方法来解释假设实验室测量中的不确定性。这导致对药物性能的概率预测和对其前瞻性实验室实验的定量测量将最佳地降低PD模型中的预测不确定性。这里提出的方法为不确定性量化和新生物途径模型的指导实验设计提供了前进的道路。
    Pharmacodynamic (PD) models are mathematical models of cellular reaction networks that include drug mechanisms of action. These models are useful for studying predictive therapeutic outcomes of novel drug therapies in silico. However, PD models are known to possess significant uncertainty with respect to constituent parameter data, leading to uncertainty in the model predictions. Furthermore, experimental data to calibrate these models is often limited or unavailable for novel pathways. In this study, we present a Bayesian optimal experimental design approach for improving PD model prediction accuracy. We then apply our method using simulated experimental data to account for uncertainty in hypothetical laboratory measurements. This leads to a probabilistic prediction of drug performance and a quantitative measure of which prospective laboratory experiment will optimally reduce prediction uncertainty in the PD model. The methods proposed here provide a way forward for uncertainty quantification and guided experimental design for models of novel biological pathways.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    渔业管理的预防方法要求评估不确定性对实现管理目标的风险的影响。然而,主要数量,例如产卵种群生物量(SSB)和鱼类死亡率(F),管理度量中使用的度量不能直接观察。这就需要使用模型来提供指导,有三种范例:最佳评估,模型合奏,和管理策略评估(MSE)。验证用于提供建议的模型很重要。在这项研究中,我们演示了如何使用诊断工具箱验证股票评估模型,特别关注预测技能。预测技能测量预测值的精度,这是模型未知的,相对于它的观察值。通过根据观测数据评估模型预测的准确性,预测技能建立了一个接受或拒绝模型假设的客观框架,以及为集合中的模型分配权重。我们的分析揭示了传统股票评估方法的局限性。通过不确定性的量化和多个模型的集成,考虑到影响鱼类种群动态的因素的复杂相互作用,我们的目标是提高管理建议的可靠性。
    The Precautionary Approach to Fisheries Management requires an assessment of the impact of uncertainty on the risk of achieving management objectives. However, the main quantities, such as spawning stock biomass (SSB) and fish mortality (F), used in management metrics cannot be directly observed. This requires the use of models to provide guidance, for which there are three paradigms: the best assessment, model ensemble, and Management Strategy Evaluation (MSE). It is important to validate the models used to provide advice. In this study, we demonstrate how stock assessment models can be validated using a diagnostic toolbox, with a specific focus on prediction skill. Prediction skill measures the precision of a predicted value, which is unknown to the model, in relation to its observed value. By evaluating the accuracy of model predictions against observed data, prediction skill establishes an objective framework for accepting or rejecting model hypotheses, as well as for assigning weights to models within an ensemble. Our analysis uncovers the limitations of traditional stock assessment methods. Through the quantification of uncertainties and the integration of multiple models, our objective is to improve the reliability of management advice considering the complex interplay of factors that influence the dynamics of fish stocks.
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