spatiotemporal change

  • 文章类型: English Abstract
    西安是政治,经济,和中国西北地区的文化中心,工业发达。大气污染事件给社会经济高质量发展带来巨大挑战。研究空气污染特征并阐明其对人类健康的影响至关重要。在这项研究中,我们首先分析了2015年至2021年研究区域空气污染物的时空变化。然后,空气质量指数(AQI)综合空气质量指数(AAQI),基于健康风险的空气质量指数(HAQI)用于评估健康风险。基于这些,AirQ2.2.3模型用于量化健康影响。结果表明,主要污染物为PM10、PM2.5和O3。研究区的主要污染特征是地形特征和人为排放的混合污染。与AQI相比,AAQI和HAQI对污染水平表现出更好的分类性能。HAQI透露,研究地区全年约有80%的人口暴露在不健康的空气中。人们在冬天最容易暴露在不健康的空气中,接着是秋天和春天,夏天最少。AirQ2.2.3模型量化了PM2.5、PM10、SO2、CO、NO2和O3为0.99%,2.04%,0.41%,1.72%,8.76%,和3.67%,分别。呼吸系统和心血管疾病死亡率的归因比例与总死亡率的变化规律一致。
    Xi\'an is the political, economic, and cultural center of northwest China with a developed industry. Air pollution incidents have brought great challenges to the high-quality development of the social economy. It is vital to study air pollution characteristics and clarify their impact on human health. In this study, we first analyzed the spatiotemporal variations in air pollutants in the study region from 2015 to 2021. Then, the air quality index (AQI), aggregate air quality index (AAQI), and health risk-based air quality index (HAQI) were used to assess health risks. Based on these, the AirQ2.2.3 model was used to quantify health effects. The results showed that the major pollutants were PM10, PM2.5, and O3. The main pollution characteristics of the study area were terrain characteristics and the mixed pollution of anthropogenic emissions. Compared to that of AQI, AAQI and HAQI showed better classification performance for pollution levels. HAQI revealed that approximately 80 % of the population was exposed to unhealthy air throughout the year in the study region. People were most exposed to unhealthy air in winter, followed by autumn and spring, and the least in summer. The AirQ2.2.3 model quantified the total mortality proportions attributable to PM2.5, PM10, SO2, CO, NO2, and O3, which were 0.99 %, 2.04 %, 0.41 %, 1.72 %, 8.76 %, and 3.67 %, respectively. The attributable proportion of mortality of the respiratory system and cardiovascular diseases was consistent with the change rule of total mortality.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    持续的快速城市化引发了土地利用的重大变化,渲染景观格局受到不利影响,某些栖息地斑块退化。生态网络因此整体收缩。因此,调查土地利用景观格局和生态网络如何随时间和空间变化对生态恢复和区域可持续性具有重要意义。以徐州规划区为例,利用土地利用变化程度考察了景观格局的时空变化和特征,土地利用转移矩阵,和量化的景观格局指数。生态网络分析,研究网络连通性和鲁棒性的变化,以及他们的原因和贡献者,探讨了快速城市化进程中土地利用景观格局和生态网络时空变化的特征和趋势。分析结果表明:(1)从1985年到2020年,耕地面积呈下降趋势,森林,和草原,伴随着建设用地的增加,水体,未使用的土地。在此期间,西南研究区见证了农田大量让位给建设用地,土地利用最剧烈的变化发生在2000年至2010年之间。(2)研究区优势斑块面积缩小,随着更分散,复杂的景观。建设用地正在成为各地区的主导景观,而一片农田,森林,草原,水体的联系变得不那么紧密。(3)东北生态网络紧密相连,西南部有更稀疏的联系。在研究区的西南和中部生态廊道中观察到空间收缩。总的来说,生态来源和走廊的数量上升,随后下降,然后反弹。(4)从1985年到1990年,随着部分农田转化为水体,生态网络变得更加紧密和强大,这导致了生态资源的增加。考虑到1990年至2010年间西南和中部地区的生态来源和走廊减少,网络连通性和稳健性下降,从2010年开始,随着两个生态来源的增加,这两个生态来源——盘安湖和儒宫湖——发生了逆转。然而,在1990年有了一个最优的生态网络,到2010年,情况显著恶化。研究区域的网络稳定性指数(α)的网络连通性指数的最小值,均匀度指数(β),和连通性指数(γ),2010年,当它的生态网络高度分散和脆弱时,归因于最大连接子图的相对大小和连接鲁棒性之间的强烈对比。研究成果可以为解决生态问题奠定科学基础,恢复景观模式,在城市化进程中发展生态网络。
    Ongoing rapid urbanization has triggered significant changes in land use, rendering landscape patterns adversely impacted and certain habitat patches degraded. Ecological networks have consequently contracted overall. As such, an investigation into how land-use landscape patterns and ecological networks change over time and space is of major significance for ecological restoration and regional sustainability. Taking Xuzhou Planning Area as a case study, we examined spatiotemporal changes and features of the landscape pattern by employing the land-use change degree, the land-use transition matrix, and quantified landscape pattern indices. An ecological network analysis, which studies the changes in network connectivity and robustness, as well as their causes and contributors, was undertaken to probe into the features and trends of spatiotemporal changes in the land-use landscape pattern and ecological network amid expeditious urbanization. Analysis results unveiled the following: (1) From 1985 to 2020, there was a decline in the area of farmland, forest, and grassland, accompanied by an increase in land for construction, water bodies, and unused land. The southwestern research area witnessed farmland substantially give way to land for construction for this period, and the most dramatic change in land use occurred between 2000 and 2010. (2) The area of dominant patches in the research area shrank, along with more fragmented, complex landscapes. The land for construction was emerging as the dominant landscape by area, whereas patches of farmland, forest, grassland, and water bodies became less connected. (3) The ecological network was densely linked in the northeast, with sparser connections in the southwest. Spatial shrinkage was observed in the research area\'s southwestern and central ecological corridors. Overall, the number of ecological sources and corridors rose and subsequently dropped before a rebound. (4) The ecological network grew more connected and robust from 1985 through 1990, as portions of farmland were converted into water bodies, which led to an increase in ecological sources. Given a reduction in ecological sources and corridors in the southwestern and central regions between 1990 and 2010, network connectivity and robustness declined, which was reversed from 2010 onward with the addition of two ecological sources-Pan\'an Lake and Dugong Lake. With an optimal ecological network in 1990, however, it deteriorated significantly by 2010. The research area saw the minimum value of its network connectivity indices of network stability index (α), evenness index (β), and connectivity index (γ), in 2010, when its ecological network was highly fragmented and vulnerable, attributing to a strong contrast between the maximal connected subgraph\'s relative size and connectivity robustness. The research findings can lay scientific groundwork for addressing ecological issues, restoring landscape patterns, and developing ecological networks amid urbanization.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    湿地,被称为“地球之肾”是全球生态系统的重要组成部分。然而,近几十年来,它们在多重压力下发生了变化,在黄河三角洲尤其如此。本研究考察了1980-2020年黄河三角洲湿地的时空变化特征,并在四种情景下使用斑块生成土地利用模拟(PLUS)模型预测了2020-2030年湿地的详细变化。即,自然发展情景(NDS),农田保护情景(FPS),湿地保护情景(WPS)和和谐发展情景(HDS)。结果表明,1980~2020年湿地面积总体增加709.29平方公里,黄河三角洲湿地类型发生了不同的变化。在过去的四十年里,潮滩减少了,而水库和池塘增加了。湿地的重心运动在湿地类型之间存在差异。人工湿地向西北移动,自然湿地向南移动。重心的移动距离表现出明显的相位特征,从2005年到2010年发生了突然的变化。PLUS模型令人满意,总准确度(OA)值大于83.48%,品质因数(FOM)值大于0.1164。从2020年到2030年,稻田和滩涂减少,而天然水,在这四种情况下,沼泽、水库和池塘增加。WPS是湿地相对理想的情况,HDS是湿地恢复和粮食生产的替代方案。在未来,黄河三角洲应重视自然湿地的恢复,以防止其进一步退化。这项研究为对湿地历史和未来变化的新理解提供了见解,并可能对湿地生态系统保护和可持续发展产生影响。
    Wetlands, known as the \"kidney of the earth\", are an important component of global ecosystems. However, they have been changed under multiple stresses in recent decades, which is especially true in the Yellow River Delta. This study examined the spatiotemporal change characteristics of wetlands in the Yellow River Delta from 1980 to 2020 and predicted detailed wetland changes from 2020 to 2030 with the patch-generating land use simulation (PLUS) model under four scenarios, namely, the natural development scenario (NDS), the farmland protection scenario (FPS), the wetland protection scenario (WPS) and the harmonious development scenario (HDS). The results showed that wetlands increased 709.29 km2 from 1980 to 2020 overall, and the wetland types in the Yellow River Delta changed divergently. Over the past four decades, the tidal flats have decreased, whereas the reservoirs and ponds have increased. The gravity center movement of wetlands differed among the wetland types, with artificial wetlands moving to the northwest and natural wetlands moving to the south. The movement distance of the gravity center demonstrated apparent phase characteristics, and an abrupt change occurred from 2005 to 2010. The PLUS model was satisfactory, with an overall accuracy (OA) value greater than 83.48 % and an figure of merit (FOM) value greater than 0.1164. From 2020 to 2030, paddy fields and tidal flats decreased, whereas natural water, marshes and reservoirs and ponds increased under the four scenarios. The WPS was a relatively ideal scenario for wetlands, and the HDS was an alternative scenario for wetland restoration and food production. In the future, more attention should be paid to restoring natural wetlands to prevent further degradation in the Yellow River Delta. This study provides insights into new understandings of historical and future changes in wetlands and may have implications for wetland ecosystem protection and sustainable development.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    未来磷(P)短缺可能会严重影响陆地生产力和粮食安全。我们调查了中国森林表层土壤有效磷(AP)和总磷(TP)的变化,草原,稻田,基于大量重复的土壤磷测量(1980年代为63,220个样本,2000年,和2010年代)和机器学习技术。在20世纪80年代和2010年代之间,土壤总AP存量以0.13kgPha-1year-1的小但显著的速率增加,但是在四个生态系统中,土壤总TP储量大幅下降(4.5kgPha-1year-1)。我们通过协调这一时期来自各种来源的P通量来量化土壤-植物系统的P预算。将几十年来土壤含量的趋势与磷预算和通量相匹配,我们发现,与施肥相比,由于巨大的土壤TP池以及通过植物吸收和水蚀而导致的大量土壤P流失,抵消了P的增加,因此耕地(尤其是高地农田)中的P过剩可能被高估。我们对中国磷赤字的发现对未来生物质生产的可持续性(尤其是森林)提出了警告。强调农田磷回收的紧迫性,并强调国家一级基础数据在指导应对全球P危机的健全政策方面的关键作用。
    Future phosphorus (P) shortages could seriously affect terrestrial productivity and food security. We investigated the changes in topsoil available P (AP) and total P (TP) in China\'s forests, grasslands, paddy fields, and upland croplands during the 1980s-2010s based on substantial repeated soil P measurements (63,220 samples in the 1980s, 2000s, and 2010s) and machine learning techniques. Between the 1980s and 2010s, total soil AP stock increased with a small but significant rate of 0.13 kg P ha-1  year-1 , but total soil TP stock declined substantially (4.5 kg P ha-1  year-1 ) in the four ecosystems. We quantified the P budgets of soil-plant systems by harmonizing P fluxes from various sources for this period. Matching trends of soil contents over the decades with P budgets and fluxes, we found that the P-surplus in cultivated soils (especially in upland croplands) might be overestimated due to the great soil TP pool compared to fertilization and the substantial soil P losses through plant uptake and water erosion that offset the P additions. Our findings of P-deficit in China raise the alarm on the sustainability of future biomass production (especially in forests), highlight the urgency of P recycling in croplands, and emphasize the critical role of country-level basic data in guiding sound policies to tackle the global P crises.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    荒漠化是我国土地退化的主要表现。中国土地荒漠化的监测和评估及其驱动机制分析对于实现《联合国防治荒漠化公约》(UNCCD)提出的“净零土地退化”的愿望至关重要。采用改进的地中海荒漠化与土地利用(MEDALUS)模型对中国2010年、2015年和2020年土地荒漠化敏感性的多年空间分布进行了评估。使用主成分分析(PCA)来评估模型的内部稳定性。此外,利用地理探测器方法研究了中国荒漠化敏感性的驱动机制。结果表明,极端敏感的荒漠化区域主要集中在西北沙漠和荒漠化地区,青藏高原北部的沙漠和荒漠化地区,内蒙古-大兴安岭沙漠和荒漠化地区的西部。此外,敏感度整体下降的土地面积比例(17.07%)超过上升的比例(16.56%)。这表明中国对土地荒漠化的敏感性总体呈下降趋势。土地利用强度(LUI),抗旱性(DR),侵蚀防护(EP),和干旱指数(AI)一直是最重要的驱动因素。从2015年到2020年,LUI成为中国土地荒漠化敏感性转变的主要催化剂。因此,强调有计划的土地利用对于确保土地利用与生态能力之间的和谐至关重要。本研究为我国土地沙漠化治理战略奠定了科学依据,并为其驱动机制提供了定量分析参考。
    Desertification is a major manifestation of land degradation in China. The monitoring and assessment of land desertification in China and the analysis of its driving mechanisms are crucial to the realization of the aspiration of \"net zero land degradation\" proposed by the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD). An improved Mediterranean Desertification and Land Use (MEDALUS) model was applied to assess the multiyear spatial distribution of land desertification sensitivity across China in 2010, 2015, and 2020. A Principal Component Analysis (PCA) was used to evaluate the internal stability of the model. In addition, a Geographical Detector method was used to examine the driving mechanisms of desertification sensitivity in China. The results showed that extremely sensitive desertification areas were primarily concentrated within the Northwest Desert and Desertification Region, northern segment of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau desert and desertification region, and western sector of the Inner Mongolia-Daxinganling Desert and Desertification Region. In addition, the proportion of land area showing an overall reduction in sensitivity (17.07 %) exceeded that showing an increase (16.56 %). This indicates an overall diminishing trend in sensitivity to land desertification across China. Land use intensity (LUI), drought resistance (DR), erosion protection (EP), and aridity index (AI) are consistently the most important drivers. From 2015 to 2020, the LUI emerged as the principal catalyst behind the transformation of land desertification sensitivity in China. Hence, emphasizing well-planned land use is vital for ensuring harmony between land utilization and ecological capacity. This study establishes a scientific basis for China\'s land desertification control strategy and serves as a quantitative analysis reference for the driving mechanisms.
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  • 文章类型: English Abstract
    气候变暖会使土壤温度升高,导致土壤碳释放,但它也可以通过提高初级生产力来增加土壤有机碳。农田土壤被认为具有固碳的巨大潜力;然而,在广泛的地理尺度上,很少有关于农田土壤有机碳对气候变暖响应的直接观测记录。水稻土是我国重要的耕地土壤之一。本研究基于全国第二次土壤调查2217个采样点数据和2017-2019年2382个采样点数据,分析了四川盆地稻田表层土壤有机碳含量的变化特征,探讨了稻田土壤有机碳变化与温度的关系。降水,耕地使用类型,施肥强度,和谷物产量。结果表明,稻田土壤有机碳含量从13.33g·kg-1变化到15.96g·kg-1,增加了2.63g·kg-1,表明四川盆地土壤在过去40年中一直是碳汇。稻田土壤有机碳增量随不同地貌区域和次生盆地的不同而变化。水稻土SOC含量的增加与年平均温度呈正相关;与年平均降水量呈负相关;随着年平均施肥量的增加,先增加后减少。化肥施用量年平均增长率,年平均粮食产量,和年平均粮食产量增长率。在不同的农田利用率下,SOC含量的增加与年平均气温增长率之间的关系不同。年平均气温增长率的增加仅对水旱地区轮作有显著影响。结果表明,四川盆地稻田土壤有机碳变化受多种因素共同影响,但气候变暖是导致稻田土壤有机碳变化的重要因素,其影响受农田使用决定的水条件控制。
    Climate warming can increase soil temperature and lead to soil carbon release, but it can also increase soil organic carbon by increasing primary productivity. Cropland soils are considered to have a huge potential to sequester carbon; however, direct observations for the responses of cropland soil organic carbon to climate warming over broad geographic scales are rarely documented. Paddy soil is one of the important cultivated soils in China. Based on the data of 2217 sampling points obtained during the second national soil survey and the data of 2382 sampling points collected during 2017-2019, this study analyzed the change characteristics of soil organic carbon content of paddy surface soil in Sichuan Basin of China and explored the relationships between the soil organic carbon change of paddy soil and temperature, precipitation, cropland use type, fertilization intensity, and grain yield. The results showed that the content of soil organic carbon of paddy soil changed from 13.33 g·kg-1to 15.96 g·kg-1, with an increase of 2.63 g·kg-1, suggesting that soils in the Sichuan Basin have acted as a carbon sink over past 40 years. The soil organic carbon increment of paddy soil varied with different geomorphic regions and different secondary basins. The increase in SOC content in paddy soil was positively correlated with annual average temperature; negatively correlated with annual average precipitation; and initially increased and then decreased with annual average fertilizer application, annual average increase rate of fertilizer application, annual average grain yield, and annual average grain yield growth rate. The relationship between the increase in SOC content and the annual average temperature growth rate was different under different farmland utilizations, and the increase in the annual average temperature growth rate had significant effects with the increase in SOC content only on paddy-dryland rotation. These results indicate that the paddy soil organic carbon change in Sichuan Basin was co-affected by various factors, but climate warming was an important factor leading to the paddy soil organic carbon change, and its influence was controlled by the water conditions determined by farmland use.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    墨西哥加勒比珊瑚礁生态系统承受了全球和区域压力源的影响,最近,自由生活的大量到来,漂浮的褐藻马尾藻属。这项研究旨在通过使用2008-2009年收集的数据集和2021年在受保护的自然区域内进行的最新调查,对活珊瑚覆盖率和殖民地密度进行时间比较,来评估墨西哥加勒比海南部石珊瑚群落结构的时空变化。使用多变量分析方法来揭示珊瑚覆盖率和菌落密度的时空变化。珊瑚覆盖率从2008-2009年的6.9%到8.9%到2021年的6.5%,是该地区的最低值。2008-2009年珊瑚菌落密度为0.68至0.78个菌落m-1,2021年为0.68个菌落m-1。目前的结果似乎代表了过去十年中的微妙变化。
    The Mexican Caribbean coral reef ecosystem has endured the effects of global and regional stressors and, recently, the massive arrivals of the free-living, floating brown algae Sargassum spp. This study aimed to evaluate spatiotemporal changes in the stony coral community structure in the southern Mexican Caribbean by a temporal comparison of live coral cover and colony density using a data set collected in 2008-2009 and a recent survey in 2021 within a Protected Natural Area. A multivariate analysis approach was used to reveal spatiotemporal changes in coral cover and colony densities. Coral cover ranged from 6.9 to 8.9% in 2008-2009 to 6.5% in 2021, the lowest values recorded for the area. Coral colony density ranged from 0.68 to 0.78 colonies m-1 in 2008-2009 to 0.68 colonies m-1 in 2021. The present results appear to represent subtle changes during the last decade.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    了解极端气候指数的时空变化,以及影响因素,对科学应对气候变化至关重要。本研究讨论了SU25(每日最高温度>25°C时的年度天数)的时空变化,基于1961年至2017年中国2398个气象站的日最高气温数据。通过使用地理检测器方法(GMD)定量评估了相关的大规模循环因子对SU25的贡献。SU25的总体空间分布从北到南显著增加。随着时间的推移,SU25显着增加,全国SU25以2.5天/十年的速度增长。青藏高原(TP)生长速度最慢,平均增长率为1.4天/十年。所有次区域的SU25的Hurst值普遍较高,这表明SU25的大多数站点在未来将继续增加。除了TP,其他次区域的倾斜年份集中在1990年代,几年后,SU25增加了。在影响每个次区域SU25的大规模环流因素中,大西洋年代际振荡(AMO)在SU25变异性中起主要作用。作为一个整体,各环流因子成对相互作用的结果主要是非线性增强。多个因素对SU25的共同贡献大于每个单独因素的贡献。
    Understanding the spatiotemporal variations in climate extremes indices, as well as the influencing factors, is critical to the scientific response to climate change. The temporal and spatial variations of SU25 (annual count of days when daily maximum temperature > 25 °C) were discussed in this study, based on daily maximum temperature data from 2398 meteorological stations in China from 1961 to 2017. The contributions of associated large-scale circulation factors to SU25 were quantitatively assessed by using the geographical detector method (GMD). The overall spatial distribution of SU25 was marked by a considerable increase from north to south. The SU25 increased significantly over time, with the national SU25 increasing at a rate of 2.5 days/decade. The Tibet Plateau (TP) had the slowest growth rate, with an average increase rate of 1.4 days/decade. The Hurst values of SU25 in all the subregions were generally high, indicating that most stations of SU25 would continue to increase in the future. Except for TP, the tipping years of other subregions were concentrated in the 1990s, and SU25 increased after the years. Among the large-scale circulation factors affecting SU25 in each subregion, Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) played a major role in SU25 variability. As a whole, the result of the pairwise interaction of each circulation factor was mainly nonlinear enhancement. The joint contributions of multiple factors to SU25 were larger than the contribution of each individual factor.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    改革开放以来,经济发展迅速,对可持续发展构成重大挑战,尤其是植被,在维护生态系统服务功能和促进绿色低碳转型方面发挥着至关重要的作用。在这项研究中,我们使用GoogleEarthEngine(GEE)平台估算了2000年至2020年山东省的植被覆盖面积(FVC)。使用重心偏移分析分析了FVC的时空变化,趋势分析,和地理探测器,并对不同土地利用类型的植被变化进行分析,揭示FVC变化的内在驱动机制。我们的结果表明,在2000年至2020年期间,山东省的植被覆盖状况良好。高植被覆盖类别占主导地位,总体变化相对较小,植被的重心通常向西南移动。土地利用类型,土壤类型,人口密度,和GDP因子对山东省植被覆盖变化的影响最为显著。这些因素的相互作用增强了对植被覆盖变化的影响,土地利用类型和土壤类型的影响程度最高。本研究的观测结果可为政策制定者制定新的生态修复策略提供数据支持,研究结果将有助于促进区域生态系统和自然资源规划的可持续性管理。
    Economic development has rapidly progressed since the implementation of reform and opening up policies, posing significant challenges to sustainable development, especially to vegetation, which plays a crucial role in maintaining ecosystem service functions and promoting green low-carbon transformations. In this study, we estimated the fractional vegetation cover (FVC) in Shandong Province from 2000 to 2020 using the Google Earth Engine (GEE) platform. The spatial and temporal changes in FVC were analyzed using gravity center migration analysis, trend analysis, and geographic detector, and the vegetation changes of different land use types were analyzed to reveal the internal driving mechanism of FVC changes. Our results indicate that vegetation cover in Shandong Province was in good condition during the period 2000 to 2020. The high vegetation cover classes dominated, and overall changes were relatively small, with the center of gravity of vegetation cover generally shifting towards the southwest. Land use type, soil type, population density, and GDP factors had the most significant impact on vegetation cover change in Shandong Province. The interaction of these factors enhanced the effect on vegetation cover change, with land use type and soil type having the highest degree of influence. The observational results of this study can provide data support for the policy makers to formulate new ecological restoration strategies, and the findings would help facilitate the sustainability management of regional ecosystem and natural resource planning.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    玛纳西地区地处干旱半干旱地区,生态脆弱,资源匮乏。土地利用变化预测对土地资源管理和优化具有重要意义。我们利用了桑基图,土地利用动态程度,和景观指数来探索土地利用的时空变化,并集成LSTM和MLP算法进行土地利用预测。MLP-LSTM预测模型最大程度地保留了土地利用数据的时空信息,并通过训练集提取各网格的时空变化特征。结果表明:(1)从1990年到2020年,农田、树盖,水体,和玛纳西地区的城市面积分别增加了855.3465km2,271.7136km2,40.0104km2和109.2483km2,而草地和裸地分别减少了677.7243km2和598.5945km2;(2)Kappa系数反映了模式预测的准确性。MLP-LSTM预测的土地利用数据的Kappa系数,MLP-ANN,LR,CA-Markov模型计算为95.58%,93.36%,89.48%,和85.35%,分别。可以发现,MLP-LSTM和MLP-ANN模型在大多数级别上都获得了更高的精度,而CA-Markov模型的精度最低。(3)景观指数可以反映景观(土地利用类型)的空间配置特征,用景观指数评价土地利用模型的预测结果可以反映模型在空间特征方面的预测精度。结果表明,MLP-LSTM模型预测的模型在空间特征上符合1990-2020年土地利用的发展趋势。这为研究玛纳西地区制定相关土地利用开发和合理配置土地资源提供了依据。
    The Manasi region is located in an arid and semi-arid region with fragile ecology and scarce resources. The land use change prediction is important for the management and optimization of land resources. We utilized Sankey diagram, dynamic degree of land use, and landscape indices to explore the temporal and spatial variation of land use and integrated the LSTM and MLP algorithms to predict land use prediction. The MLP-LSTM prediction model retains the spatiotemporal information of land use data to the greatest extent and extracts the spatiotemporal variation characteristics of each grid through a training set. Results showed that (1) from 1990 to 2020, cropland, tree cover, water bodies, and urban areas in the Manasi region increased by 855.3465 km2, 271.7136 km2, 40.0104 km2, and 109.2483 km2, respectively, whereas grassland and bare land decreased by 677.7243 km2 and 598.5945 km2, respectively; (2) Kappa coefficients reflect the accuracy of the mode\'s predictions in terms of quantity. The Kappa coefficients of the land use data predicted by the MLP-LSTM, MLP-ANN, LR, and CA-Markov models were calculated to be 95.58%, 93.36%, 89.48%, and 85.35%, respectively. It can be found that the MLP-LSTM and MLP-ANN models obtain higher accuracy in most levels, while the CA-Markov model has the lowest accuracy. (3) The landscape indices can reflect the spatial configuration characteristics of landscape (land use types), and evaluating the prediction results of land use models using landscape indices can reflect the prediction accuracy of the models in terms of spatial features. The results indicate that the model predicted by MLP-LSTM model conforms to the development trend of land use from 1990 to 2020 in terms of spatial features. This gives a basis for the study of the Manasi region to formulate relevant land use development and rationally allocate land resources.
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