We examine the relationship between BMI and food purchase behavior using a unique dataset that links individual-level food purchases to health data. We find that individuals with higher BMI are significantly more sensitive to price changes in vice categories but do not show similar sensitivity in comparable nonvice categories. We rely on past literature that defines and identifies vice categories as those that are tempting and purchased impulsively. We explore the effectiveness of a 10% price increase on vice food categories, a hypothetical policy similar in spirit to a fat tax or sugar tax. We predict that such a tax would substantially reduce consumption of these foods, and would be particularly effective in reducing consumption by individuals with higher BMI.

The WHO recommends soda taxes to reduce sugar consumption, but the effect across socioeconomic groups is unclear.
We assessed 16-y trends in daily soda consumption among adolescents in 4 European countries with a soda tax and 5 comparison countries, by family affluence.
Five rounds of the international \"Health Behaviour in School-Aged Children\" school-based survey were used (school years 2001/2002 to 2017/2018, repeated cross-sectional design). Finland, France, Belgium, and Portugal introduced or updated a soda tax during this period. For comparison, we selected 5 neighboring countries without such a tax. Nationally representative samples of adolescents aged 13 and 15 y (n = 165,521; 51.2% girls) completed a standardized questionnaire, including a question on soda consumption frequency. Using the family affluence scale (FAS), we categorized adolescents into lower-, middle- or higher-affluent groups. Changes in daily soda consumption were assessed in each country independently.
Before taxation, daily soda consumption was more likely among lower-affluent adolescents in France and Belgium (P < 0.001, socioeconomic inequalities) and was similar across FAS groups in Finland and Portugal (no inequalities). After the tax, daily soda consumption was reduced across all FAS groups in Finland, Belgium, and Portugal (Pinteractions ≥ 0.33). In France, a posttax decrease was observed only among lower-affluent adolescents (ORlower, 0.76; 95% CI: 0.60, 0.96; reduced inequalities). During the same periods, socioeconomic patterns remained stable in 3 comparison countries (Pinteractions ≥ 0.38), and larger reductions in daily soda consumption were observed among middle- or higher-affluent adolescents compared with lower-affluent adolescents in the remaining 2 comparison countries (Pinteractions ≤ 0.08, increased inequalities).
Socioeconomic patterns did not change after the tax implementation in 3 out of 4 countries, and socioeconomic inequalities were reduced in France. Taxing sodas might be an effective measure to attenuate, or at least not exacerbate, socioeconomic inequalities in adolescent daily soda consumption. Am J Clin Nutr 20XX;xx:xx-xx.

Sugar-sweetened beverage taxes have become an increasingly popular policy to combat the worldwide obesity epidemic, but relatively little is known about their impact on health outcomes, particularly among high school aged students. In this paper, I use public-use data from the Youth Risk Behavioral Surveillance System to determine whether high school students living in three of the American cities which have implemented Sugar-sweetened beverage taxes have experienced public health improvements. Using an event-study design that compares outcomes in treated districts to a group of similar control districts, I find reductions in soda consumption in Philadelphia and average body mass index in Philadelphia, San Francisco and Oakland, with suggestive evidence that the improvements are concentrated among female and non-white respondents in both cases.

Sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) taxes related to the quantity of sugar have appeared as a popular regulatory tool around the world during the last decade showing important variations in their implementation and impact. We evaluated the impact of a new SSB tax implemented in Catalonia since May 1, 2017 on the purchased quantities and penetration rates of taxed and untaxed cola beverages. We use aggregate time series of cola beverages purchases in all 17 Spanish Autonomous Communities before and after the implementation of the SBB tax in Catalonia, from January 2013 to June 2019. A comparison between two different types of causal inference methods was conducted: a two-way fixed effects difference in differences model and a modified synthetic control model. Regular cola purchases decreased 12.1% and their penetration rate decreased by 1.27 points during the two post-intervention years using the preferred model. Diet cola purchases increased 17.0% and their penetration rate also increased by 1.65 points. Only regular cola results were robust to all placebo test checks. The SSB tax implemented in Catalonia in 2017 significantly reduced the volume and penetration rates of regular colas with no robust evidence for the substitution effect on diet colas.

Increasing obesity-related problems and rising healthcare expenditures have led governments in developed countries to consider the introduction of soda taxes. We study a recent such tax, implemented in Portugal in February 2017 -one of the first soda taxes worldwide that increases with sugar content (0.08 euros per liter for drinks with less than 80 g of sugar per liter, and 0.16 euros per liter for drinks with 80 g or more sugar per liter, plus VAT). We use extremely detailed panel data from one of the two largest retailers in the country, covering the period between February 2015 and January 2018. We take advantage of the tax breakdown by sugar levels to examine how soda prices and quantities purchased reacted. For identification, we rely on difference-in-differences models with various vectors of fixed effects, comparing each group of products to water. For drinks with more than 80 g of sugar per liter, results indicate almost full price pass-through to the consumer. For drinks with less than 80 g of sugar per liter, price pass-through surpassed 100%. Regarding consumption, our findings suggest stockpiling behavior in the quarter when the tax was approved and before it was actually implemented. In the implementation period, there are no significant changes in quantities purchased for most beverages vis-à-vis water, with the exception of soda drinks with comparatively low levels of sugar. This suggests that benefits of the soda tax in terms of reducing sugar intake are mainly due to reformulation, as producers reduced the sugar content of some drinks to fall below the 80 g per liter threshold.

In January 2014, Mexico introduced a soda tax of 1 Mexican Peso (MXP) per litre. The aim of this paper is to examine the political context out of which this policy emerged, the main drivers for the policy change, and the role of stakeholders in setting the policy agenda and shaping the policy design and outcomes. Thirty-one semi-structured interviews were conducted with key stakeholders, and 145 documents, including peer-reviewed papers, policy briefs, press releases, industry, government, and CSO reports, were analysed. An iterative thematic analysis was conducted based on relevant theories of the policy process using a complementary approach, including Stages Heuristic Model, Policy Triangle Framework, and Multiple Streams Model. Results showed that a major motivation was the new administration seeking funds as they entered government. The soda tax was supported by a key group of legislators, civil society actors and by academics promoting evidence on health effects. However, the policy measure was challenged by the food and beverage industries (F&BI). Non-state actors were both formally and informally involved in setting the agenda, regardless of some of them having opposing interests on the soda tax policy. Approaches used by non-state actors to influence the agenda included: calls for action, marketing strategies, coalition building, challenging evidence, and engaging in public-private partnerships (PPPs). The effectiveness of the soda tax was highly debated and resulted in public polarization, although the framing of the outcomes was instrumental in influencing fiscal policies elsewhere. This study contributes to the debate around implementing fiscal policies for health and how power is exercised and framed in the agenda-setting phase of policy development. The article examines how the F&BI sought to influence the national strategy for obesity prevention. It argues that the experience of the soda tax campaign empowered policy advocates, strengthening national and international civil society networks.

In March 2016, the UK government announced the Soft Drinks Industry Levy (SDIL) which came into effect in April 2018. In common with the reaction to sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) taxes in other countries, the SDIL announcement was met with strong industry opposition, with claims that it would harm their profits. The SDIL was designed to incentivise reformulation of SSBs by providing a 2-year delay between the announcement and the enforcement of the levy, and adopting a two-tiered rate based on the sugar content of the drinks. Using interrupted time series analysis, this paper examines how the domestic turnover of UK soft drinks manufacturers changed after the announcement and the implementation of the SDIL. Our results show some evidence of a short-term negative impact of the SDIL announcement on the domestic turnover of the UK soft drinks manufacturers. This effect, however, did not continue post-implementation. These findings suggest that manufacturers were, to a large extent, able to mitigate the effects of levy before it came into effect.

While in January 2012, Denmark increased the long-standing tax on sugary soft drinks, the tax was cut by half in July 2013 and then completely repealed in January 2014. In this study, we examine whether increases and cuts of the soft drink tax lead to similar over- or under-shifting to prices and to similar demand responses. We use longitudinal scanner data of 1,282 Danish households to estimate within-product changes in prices and within-household changes in purchase quantity. The tax hike was overshifted by a factor of 1.6-1.8, while the tax repeal was fully passed through with a factor of 0.9-1.2. On average, consumption was 13.4 percent lower the year after the tax increase compared to the year before. The repeal of the tax was associated with an increase in purchase quantity of 31.0 percent. This is equivalent to price elasticities of -1.3 for both tax hikes and cuts. The results suggest that consumers react similarly to tax cuts compared to tax increases. Furthermore, the increase in purchases following a tax cut has no limiting effect on purchases of other beverages suggesting an increase in the intake of calories. This might have implications for health in countries that consider repealing current taxes on soft drinks.

On 16th March 2016, the government of the United Kingdom announced the Soft Drinks Industry Levy (SDIL), under which UK soft-drink manufacturers were to be taxed according to the volume of products with added sugar they produced or imported. We use \'event study\' methodology to assess the likely financial effect of the SDIL on parts of the soft drinks industry, using stock returns of four UK-operating soft-drink firms listed on the London Stock Exchange. We found that three of the four firms experienced negative abnormal stock returns on the day of announcement. A cross-sectional analysis revealed that the cumulative abnormal returns of soft drink stocks were not significantly less than that of other food and drinks-related stocks beyond the day of the SDIL announcement. Our findings suggest that the SDIL announcement was initially perceived as detrimental news by the market but negative stock returns were short-lived, indicating a lack of major concerns for industry. There was limited evidence of a negative stock market reaction to the two subsequent announcements: release of draft legislation on 5th December 2016, and confirmation of the tax rates on 8th March 2017.

This article explores the politics of passage of the sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) tax in Mexico, using published documents, media articles, and interviews with key stakeholders. The article examines first the period of agenda setting when the tax was included in the President\'s fiscal reform package; and second, the period of legislative passage, when the bill was introduced in Congress and was passed. The analysis uses Kingdon\'s three streams theory of agenda setting, to explain how the tax emerged on the agenda and how agenda setting shaped and enabled legislative passage. The article offers five lessons related to the politics of passing the SSB tax in Mexico. First, passing an SSB tax was difficult and required high-level organization, cooperation, planning, and effort. Second, supporters needed an understanding of how to manage the political and economic context, facilitated by a grant from Bloomberg Philanthropies. Third, framing the tax as generating revenue helped get the proposal onto the policy agenda and enabled buy-in from the powerful Ministry of Finance (Hacienda). Fourth, forming networks within the legislature early on allowed tax proponents to have a network of allies within Congress ready when the SSB tax was introduced as a bill. Finally, early public relations campaigns helped shape public perception that Mexico\'s obesity epidemic was driven in part by SSB consumption. This is the first paper that uses political science theory and primary data collection and interviews with a broad range of stakeholders, to explain how Mexico passed an SSB tax despite opposition from a strong national SSB industry.