睡眠性行为可能是所谓的性侵犯的辩护。国际睡眠障碍分类(ICSD3)指出:“在存在酒精中毒的情况下不应诊断出唤醒障碍……前者[酒精停电]呈指数级更普遍。ICSD3的专家小组成员引用ICSD3断言:“酒精中毒应排除梦游防御”。这意味着对起诉假设(Hp)的支持超过了辩护假设(Hd)。我使用贝叶斯方法来评估酒精中毒的证据真实性。似然比,LR,测量先前有罪几率的放大,LR=考虑酒精中毒后的负罪感几率/考虑酒精中毒前的负罪感几率。根据贝叶斯定理,LR=p(酒精中毒,给定Hp)/p(酒精中毒,给定Hd)。我使用来自性侵犯和饮酒流行率的横断面研究的数据,在大学生中,根据纵向研究的数据,和来自失眠症流行病学的数据来评估LR(酒精)。LR~1.5或5,取决于酒精是否有,或者不,增加失眠症的风险。对Hp的极大支持的命题意味着LR〜1,000,000,因此ICSD3中的命题不受形式分析的支持。ICSD3中的统计推理尚不清楚。似乎有贝叶斯条件的反转(混淆中毒给定攻击,以及中毒的攻击)和未能评估Hd中的酒精中毒。讨论了R.vSallyClark中类似的统计误差。美国睡眠医学学会应该审查ICSD3中的统计方法。
Sleep sex may be a defense for alleged sexual assault. The International Classification of Sleep Disorders (ICSD3) states: \"Disorders of arousal should not be diagnosed in the presence of alcohol intoxication… The former [alcohol blackouts] are exponentially more prevalent.\" A panel member of ICSD3, quoting ICSD3 asserts: \"alcohol intoxication should rule out a sleep-walking defense\". This implies extremely strong support for a prosecution hypothesis (Hp ) over a defense hypothesis (Hd ). I use Bayesian methodology to evaluate the evidential probity of alcohol intoxication. The likelihood ratio, LR, measures the amplification of prior odds of guilt, LR = Posterior odds of guilt after considering alcohol intoxication /Prior odds of guilt before considering alcohol intoxication . By Bayes\' theorem, LR = p ( alcohol intoxication, given H p ) / p ( alcohol intoxication, given H d ) . I use data from cross-sectional studies of sexual assault and prevalence of alcohol use, in college students, with data from longitudinal studies, and data from the epidemiology of parasomnias to evaluate LR (alcohol). LR ~1.5 or 5, depending whether alcohol does, or does not, increase the risk of parasomnias. The proposition of extremely strong support for Hp implies a LR ~1,000,000, so the proposition in ICSD3 is not supported by formal analysis. The statistical reasoning in ICSD3 is unclear. There appears to be inversion of the Bayesian conditional (confusing intoxication given assault, and assault given intoxication) and failure to evaluate alcohol intoxication in Hd . Similar statistical errors in R. v Sally Clark are discussed. The American Academy of Sleep Medicine should review the statistical methodology in ICSD3.