seizure forecasting

  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    近年来,可穿戴设备因其通过改善癫痫发作监测和预测来增强患者护理的潜力而在癫痫研究中引起了极大的关注。这篇叙述性综述提供了当前临床最新技术的详细概述,同时解决了评估自主神经系统(ANS)功能的设备如何反映癫痫发作和中枢神经系统(CNS)状态变化。这包括CNS和ANS之间的相互作用的描述,包括影响其动力学的生理和癫痫相关变化。我们首先讨论测量自主生物信号的技术方面以及在临床实践中使用ANS传感器的注意事项。然后,我们回顾了最近的癫痫发作检测和癫痫发作预测研究,使用测量ANS生物标志物的设备,强调他们在癫痫发作检测和预测方面的性能和能力。最后,我们应对该领域的挑战,并为未来的发展提供展望。
    Wearable devices have attracted significant attention in epilepsy research in recent years for their potential to enhance patient care through improved seizure monitoring and forecasting. This narrative review presents a detailed overview of the current clinical state of the art while addressing how devices that assess autonomic nervous system (ANS) function reflect seizures and central nervous system (CNS) state changes. This includes a description of the interactions between the CNS and the ANS, including physiological and epilepsy-related changes affecting their dynamics. We first discuss technical aspects of measuring autonomic biosignals and considerations for using ANS sensors in clinical practice. We then review recent seizure detection and seizure forecasting studies, highlighting their performance and capability for seizure detection and forecasting using devices measuring ANS biomarkers. Finally, we address the field\'s challenges and provide an outlook for future developments.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    目的:这项研究的目的是使用现成的数字手表开发一种机器学习算法,三星手表(SM-R800),并评估其对癫痫患者全身性惊厥发作(GCS)检测的有效性。
    方法:这项多部位癫痫监测单元(EMU)2期研究包括36名成年患者。每个病人都戴着一块装有加速度计的三星手表,陀螺仪,和光电容积描记传感器。从传感器数据中提取了68个时域和频域特征,并用于训练随机森林算法。开发了一个测试框架,可以更好地反映动车组的设置,包括(1)对GCS患者的留单患者交叉验证(LOPOCV),(2)非癫痫患者的误报率(FAR)测试,和(3)对前瞻性患者队列进行“固定和冷冻”前瞻性测试。平衡精度,精度,灵敏度,和FAR被用来量化算法的性能。癫痫发作和偏移是通过使用视频脑电图(EEG)监测来确定的。特征重要性计算为LOPOCV测试期间Gini杂质的平均减少。
    结果:LOPOCV结果显示.93的平衡精度(95%置信区间[CI]=.8-.98),精度为.68(95%CI=.46-.85),灵敏度为.87(95%CI=.62-.96),和0.21/24小时的FAR(四分位数间距[IQR]=0-.90)。在没有癫痫发作的患者上测试该算法导致0.28/24小时的FAR(IQR=0-.61)。在“固定和冷冻”前瞻性测试中,两名患者有三个GCS,由算法检测到的,同时产生0.25/24小时的FAR(IQR=0-.89)。特征重要性表明基于心率的特征优于基于加速度计/陀螺仪的特征。
    结论:商用可穿戴数字手表,可可靠地检测GCS,以最低的误报率,可以克服定制设备的使用采用和其他限制。取决于前瞻性3期研究的结果,此类设备有可能在临床环境中提供基于非EEG的癫痫发作监测和预测。
    OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to develop a machine learning algorithm using an off-the-shelf digital watch, the Samsung watch (SM-R800), and evaluate its effectiveness for the detection of generalized convulsive seizures (GCS) in persons with epilepsy.
    METHODS: This multisite epilepsy monitoring unit (EMU) phase 2 study included 36 adult patients. Each patient wore a Samsung watch that contained accelerometer, gyroscope, and photoplethysmographic sensors. Sixty-eight time and frequency domain features were extracted from the sensor data and were used to train a random forest algorithm. A testing framework was developed that would better reflect the EMU setting, consisting of (1) leave-one-patient-out cross-validation (LOPO CV) on GCS patients, (2) false alarm rate (FAR) testing on nonseizure patients, and (3) \"fixed-and-frozen\" prospective testing on a prospective patient cohort. Balanced accuracy, precision, sensitivity, and FAR were used to quantify the performance of the algorithm. Seizure onsets and offsets were determined by using video-electroencephalographic (EEG) monitoring. Feature importance was calculated as the mean decrease in Gini impurity during the LOPO CV testing.
    RESULTS: LOPO CV results showed balanced accuracy of .93 (95% confidence interval [CI] = .8-.98), precision of .68 (95% CI = .46-.85), sensitivity of .87 (95% CI = .62-.96), and FAR of .21/24 h (interquartile range [IQR] = 0-.90). Testing the algorithm on patients without seizure resulted in an FAR of .28/24 h (IQR = 0-.61). During the \"fixed-and-frozen\" prospective testing, two patients had three GCS, which were detected by the algorithm, while generating an FAR of .25/24 h (IQR = 0-.89). Feature importance showed that heart rate-based features outperformed accelerometer/gyroscope-based features.
    CONCLUSIONS: Commercially available wearable digital watches that reliably detect GCS, with minimum false alarm rates, may overcome usage adoption and other limitations of custom-built devices. Contingent on the outcomes of a prospective phase 3 study, such devices have the potential to provide non-EEG-based seizure surveillance and forecasting in the clinical setting.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    目标:最近,深度学习人工智能(AI)模型使用回顾性癫痫发作日记预测癫痫发作风险,其准确性高于随机预测。本研究试图前瞻性地评估相同的算法。
    方法:我们招募了一个由46名癫痫患者组成的前瞻性队列;25人完成了足够的数据输入进行分析(中位数=5个月)。我们使用了与我们先前研究相同的AI方法。团体级别和个人级别的Brier技能得分(BSS)将随机预测和简单移动平均预测与AI进行了比较。
    结果:AI的受试者工作特征曲线下面积为.82。在集团层面,人工智能优于随机预测(BSS=.53)。在个人层面,在28%的病例中,AI优于随机。在团体和个人层面,移动平均线的表现优于AI。如果包括预登记(未核实)日记(假定漏报),AI的表现明显优于两个比较者。调查显示,大多数人不介意低质量的低风险或高风险预测,然而,91%的人希望获得这些预测。
    结论:以前开发的AI预测工具在这个前瞻性队列中的表现并不优于非常简单的移动平均预测。建议人工智能模型应该被取代。
    OBJECTIVE: Recently, a deep learning artificial intelligence (AI) model forecasted seizure risk using retrospective seizure diaries with higher accuracy than random forecasts. The present study sought to prospectively evaluate the same algorithm.
    METHODS: We recruited a prospective cohort of 46 people with epilepsy; 25 completed sufficient data entry for analysis (median = 5 months). We used the same AI method as in our prior study. Group-level and individual-level Brier Skill Scores (BSSs) compared random forecasts and simple moving average forecasts to the AI.
    RESULTS: The AI had an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of .82. At the group level, the AI outperformed random forecasting (BSS = .53). At the individual level, AI outperformed random in 28% of cases. At the group and individual level, the moving average outperformed the AI. If pre-enrollment (nonverified) diaries (with presumed underreporting) were included, the AI significantly outperformed both comparators. Surveys showed most did not mind poor-quality LOW-RISK or HIGH-RISK forecasts, yet 91% wanted access to these forecasts.
    CONCLUSIONS: The previously developed AI forecasting tool did not outperform a very simple moving average forecasting in this prospective cohort, suggesting that the AI model should be replaced.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    背景:预测第二天的癫痫发作可能性将使临床医生能够在癫痫发作风险较高时延长或潜在地安排视频脑电图(EEG)监测。将标准化的临床数据与可穿戴设备的短期记录相结合以预测癫痫发作的可能性可能具有很高的实际意义,因为可穿戴数据易于收集且快速。作为癫痫发作预测的第一步,我们根据患者在以下记录中是否有癫痫发作对患者进行分类.
    方法:进入癫痫监测单元的儿科患者佩戴记录心率(HR)的可穿戴设备,心率变异性(HRV),皮肤电活动(EDA),和周围体温。我们利用了从9:00到9:15pm的简短记录,并比较了有和没有即将发作的患者的平均值。此外,我们收集了临床数据:年龄,性别,第一次癫痫发作的年龄,广义减速,局灶性减慢,和脑电图上的尖峰,磁共振成像发现,和减少抗癫痫药物。我们使用具有交叉验证的传统机器学习技术来对有和没有即将发作的患者进行分类。
    结果:我们纳入了139名患者:78名患者没有癫痫发作,61名患者在同时进行视频EEG和E4记录期间在晚上9点之后至少有一次癫痫发作。患者的HR(P<0.01)和EDA(P<0.01)较低,HRV(P=0.02)较高。分组分类的平均准确率为66%,接收器工作特性下的平均面积为0.72。
    结论:短期可穿戴记录与临床数据相结合,作为一种易于使用的癫痫发作可能性评估工具,具有巨大的潜力。
    BACKGROUND: Predicting seizure likelihood for the following day would enable clinicians to extend or potentially schedule video-electroencephalography (EEG) monitoring when seizure risk is high. Combining standardized clinical data with short-term recordings of wearables to predict seizure likelihood could have high practical relevance as wearable data is easy and fast to collect. As a first step toward seizure forecasting, we classified patients based on whether they had seizures or not during the following recording.
    METHODS: Pediatric patients admitted to the epilepsy monitoring unit wore a wearable that recorded the heart rate (HR), heart rate variability (HRV), electrodermal activity (EDA), and peripheral body temperature. We utilized short recordings from 9:00 to 9:15 pm and compared mean values between patients with and without impending seizures. In addition, we collected clinical data: age, sex, age at first seizure, generalized slowing, focal slowing, and spikes on EEG, magnetic resonance imaging findings, and antiseizure medication reduction. We used conventional machine learning techniques with cross-validation to classify patients with and without impending seizures.
    RESULTS: We included 139 patients: 78 had no seizures and 61 had at least one seizure after 9 pm during the concurrent video-EEG and E4 recordings. HR (P < 0.01) and EDA (P < 0.01) were lower and HRV (P = 0.02) was higher for patients with than for patients without impending seizures. The average accuracy of group classification was 66%, and the mean area under the receiver operating characteristics was 0.72.
    CONCLUSIONS: Short-term wearable recordings in combination with clinical data have great potential as an easy-to-use seizure likelihood assessment tool.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    背景:癫痫发作风险预测可以减少癫痫患者的伤害甚至死亡。对使用非侵入式可穿戴设备来生成癫痫发作风险的预测存在极大的兴趣。基于癫痫活动周期的预测,癫痫发作时间或心率提供了有希望的预测结果。这项研究验证了使用可穿戴设备记录的多模态周期的预测方法。
    方法:从13名参与者中提取癫痫发作和心率周期。智能手表心率数据的平均周期为562天,平均有125个来自智能手机应用程序的自我报告癫痫发作。研究了癫痫发作时间与癫痫发作阶段和心率周期之间的关系。使用加性回归模型来预测心率周期。使用癫痫发作周期进行预测的结果,心率周期,并对两者的组合进行了比较。在前瞻性环境中,对13名参与者中的6名进行了预测表现评估,使用算法开发后收集的长期数据。
    结果:结果表明,对于9/13名参与者,最佳预测在回顾性验证期间表现高于机会的受试者工作特征曲线(AUC)下的平均面积为0.73。用前瞻性数据评估的受试者特定预测显示,平均AUC为0.77,有4/6的参与者表现出高于机会的表现。
    结论:这项研究的结果表明,从多模态数据中检测到的周期可以在单个,可扩展的癫痫发作风险预测算法提供稳健的性能。所提出的预测方法使癫痫发作风险能够在任意的未来时期内进行估计,并且可以在一系列数据类型中进行推广。与以前的工作相比,本研究前瞻性地评估了预测,在对癫痫发作风险输出视而不见的受试者中,代表着临床应用的关键一步。
    背景:本研究由澳大利亚政府国家健康与医学研究委员会和BioMedTechHorizons资助。该研究还获得了美国癫痫基金会的“我的癫痫发作量表”资助。
    BACKGROUND: Seizure risk forecasting could reduce injuries and even deaths in people with epilepsy. There is great interest in using non-invasive wearable devices to generate forecasts of seizure risk. Forecasts based on cycles of epileptic activity, seizure times or heart rate have provided promising forecasting results. This study validates a forecasting method using multimodal cycles recorded from wearable devices.
    METHODS: Seizure and heart rate cycles were extracted from 13 participants. The mean period of heart rate data from a smartwatch was 562 days, with a mean of 125 self-reported seizures from a smartphone app. The relationship between seizure onset time and phases of seizure and heart rate cycles was investigated. An additive regression model was used to project heart rate cycles. The results of forecasts using seizure cycles, heart rate cycles, and a combination of both were compared. Forecasting performance was evaluated in 6 of 13 participants in a prospective setting, using long-term data collected after algorithms were developed.
    RESULTS: The results showed that the best forecasts achieved a mean area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.73 for 9/13 participants showing performance above chance during retrospective validation. Subject-specific forecasts evaluated with prospective data showed a mean AUC of 0.77 with 4/6 participants showing performance above chance.
    CONCLUSIONS: The results of this study demonstrate that cycles detected from multimodal data can be combined within a single, scalable seizure risk forecasting algorithm to provide robust performance. The presented forecasting method enabled seizure risk to be estimated for an arbitrary future period and could be generalised across a range of data types. In contrast to earlier work, the current study evaluated forecasts prospectively, in subjects blinded to their seizure risk outputs, representing a critical step towards clinical applications.
    BACKGROUND: This study was funded by an Australian Government National Health & Medical Research Council and BioMedTech Horizons grant. The study also received support from the Epilepsy Foundation of America\'s \'My Seizure Gauge\' grant.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    目的:先前的研究表明,癫痫患者可能能够预测自己的癫痫发作。这项研究旨在评估先兆症状之间的关系,感知的癫痫发作风险,以及未来和最近自我报告和脑电图确认的癫痫患者在其自然家庭环境中的癫痫发作。
    方法:收集有和没有并发脑电图记录的患者的长期电子调查。从电子调查中获得的信息包括药物依从性,睡眠质量,心情,压力,调查前感知的癫痫发作风险和癫痫发作发生情况。确定了EEG癫痫发作。使用单变量和多变量广义线性混合效应回归模型来估计比值比(OR)以评估关系。使用将OR转换为曲线下等效面积(AUC)的数学公式将结果与癫痫发作预测分类器和设备预测文献进行比较。
    结果:54名受试者返回了10,269个电子调查条目,四名受试者同时采集脑电图记录。单因素分析显示应激增加(OR=2.01,95%CI=[1.12,3.61],AUC=0.61,p=0.02)与未来自我报告癫痫发作的相对几率增加相关。多变量分析表明,以前自我报告的癫痫发作(5.37,[3.53,8.16],0.76,<0.001)与未来自我报告的癫痫发作和高感知的癫痫发作风险(3.34,[1.87,5.95],0.69,<0.001)在将先前自我报告的癫痫发作添加到模型中时仍然显着。未发现与医疗依从性相关。在电子调查反应与随后的EEG癫痫发作之间没有发现显着关联。
    结论:我们的结果表明,患者可能倾向于在连续分组中发生的自我预测癫痫发作,情绪低落和压力增加可能是以前癫痫发作的结果,而不是独立的先兆症状。并发EEG的小队列患者没有自我预测EEG癫痫发作的能力。从OR到AUC值的转换有助于直接比较调查和涉及调查预感和预测的设备研究之间的性能。
    Previous studies suggested that patients with epilepsy might be able to forecast their own seizures. This study aimed to assess the relationships between premonitory symptoms, perceived seizure risk, and future and recent self-reported and electroencephalographically (EEG)-confirmed seizures in ambulatory patients with epilepsy in their natural home environments.
    Long-term e-surveys were collected from patients with and without concurrent EEG recordings. Information obtained from the e-surveys included medication adherence, sleep quality, mood, stress, perceived seizure risk, and seizure occurrences preceding the survey. EEG seizures were identified. Univariate and multivariate generalized linear mixed-effect regression models were used to estimate odds ratios (ORs) for the assessment of the relationships. Results were compared with the seizure forecasting classifiers and device forecasting literature using a mathematical formula converting OR to equivalent area under the curve (AUC).
    Fifty-four subjects returned 10 269 e-survey entries, with four subjects acquiring concurrent EEG recordings. Univariate analysis revealed that increased stress (OR = 2.01, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.12-3.61, AUC = .61, p = .02) was associated with increased relative odds of future self-reported seizures. Multivariate analysis showed that previous self-reported seizures (OR = 5.37, 95% CI = 3.53-8.16, AUC = .76, p < .001) were most strongly associated with future self-reported seizures, and high perceived seizure risk (OR = 3.34, 95% CI = 1.87-5.95, AUC = .69, p < .001) remained significant when prior self-reported seizures were added to the model. No correlation with medication adherence was found. No significant association was found between e-survey responses and subsequent EEG seizures.
    Our results suggest that patients may tend to self-forecast seizures that occur in sequential groupings and that low mood and increased stress may be the result of previous seizures rather than independent premonitory symptoms. Patients in the small cohort with concurrent EEG showed no ability to self-predict EEG seizures. The conversion from OR to AUC values facilitates direct comparison of performance between survey and device studies involving survey premonition and forecasting.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    目的:对影响癫痫发作时间的因素知之甚少,癫痫发作的不可预测性仍然是残疾的主要原因。时间生物学的工作表明,周期性的生理现象无处不在,每天和多天的免疫周期明显,内分泌,新陈代谢,神经学,和心血管功能。此外,慢性大脑记录的研究发现,癫痫发作的风险与大脑活动的每日和多日周期有关。这里,我们提供了一组不同生理信号的周期性调制之间的关系的第一个表征,大脑活动,和癫痫发作时间。
    方法:在这项队列研究中,14名受试者接受了使用多模式腕部穿戴传感器的慢性动态监测(记录心率,加速计,皮肤电活动,和温度)和植入的反应性神经刺激系统(记录发作间癫痫样异常和电图癫痫发作)。小波和滤波器希尔伯特光谱分析表征了大脑和可穿戴记录中的昼夜节律和多天周期。循环统计评估了生理学中的电记录癫痫发作时间和周期。
    结果:10名受试者符合纳入标准。平均记录持续时间为232天。七名受试者进行了可靠的脑电图癫痫发作检测(平均=76次癫痫发作)。在所有受试者的所有可穿戴设备信号中都存在多天周期。癫痫发作时间在五个(温度)中被锁定为多天周期,四(心率,阶段性皮肤电活动),和三个(加速度计,心率变异性,强直性皮肤电活动)受试者。值得注意的是,从心率回归行为协变量后,7名受试者中有6名癫痫发作相位锁定于残余心率信号。
    结论:癫痫发作时间与多种生理过程中的每日和多日周期相关。慢性多模式可穿戴设备记录可以发生罕见的阵发性事件,比如癫痫发作,在更广泛的个体时间生物学背景下。可穿戴设备可以促进对影响癫痫发作风险的因素的理解,并实现个性化的时变方法来治疗癫痫。
    The factors that influence seizure timing are poorly understood, and seizure unpredictability remains a major cause of disability. Work in chronobiology has shown that cyclical physiological phenomena are ubiquitous, with daily and multiday cycles evident in immune, endocrine, metabolic, neurological, and cardiovascular function. Additionally, work with chronic brain recordings has identified that seizure risk is linked to daily and multiday cycles in brain activity. Here, we provide the first characterization of the relationships between the cyclical modulation of a diverse set of physiological signals, brain activity, and seizure timing.
    In this cohort study, 14 subjects underwent chronic ambulatory monitoring with a multimodal wrist-worn sensor (recording heart rate, accelerometry, electrodermal activity, and temperature) and an implanted responsive neurostimulation system (recording interictal epileptiform abnormalities and electrographic seizures). Wavelet and filter-Hilbert spectral analyses characterized circadian and multiday cycles in brain and wearable recordings. Circular statistics assessed electrographic seizure timing and cycles in physiology.
    Ten subjects met inclusion criteria. The mean recording duration was 232 days. Seven subjects had reliable electroencephalographic seizure detections (mean = 76 seizures). Multiday cycles were present in all wearable device signals across all subjects. Seizure timing was phase locked to multiday cycles in five (temperature), four (heart rate, phasic electrodermal activity), and three (accelerometry, heart rate variability, tonic electrodermal activity) subjects. Notably, after regression of behavioral covariates from heart rate, six of seven subjects had seizure phase locking to the residual heart rate signal.
    Seizure timing is associated with daily and multiday cycles in multiple physiological processes. Chronic multimodal wearable device recordings can situate rare paroxysmal events, like seizures, within a broader chronobiology context of the individual. Wearable devices may advance the understanding of factors that influence seizure risk and enable personalized time-varying approaches to epilepsy care.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    未经证实:虽然众所周知,睡眠不足是癫痫发作的诱因,这种关联仍然缺乏量化。这项研究调查了癫痫发作之前是否有睡眠效率的显着变化,如通过配备心电图的可穿戴设备所测量的,呼吸带,和加速度计。
    UNASSIGNED:分析了在我们的癫痫监测单位住院的47名癫痫患者的夜间记录(304晚)。将夜间癫痫发作后(觉醒后24小时)的睡眠指标与未发作的夜间睡眠指标进行比较。
    未经证实:在癫痫发作前的夜晚发现睡眠效率(夜间睡眠百分比)较低(p<0.05)。睡眠效率的每个标准差降低和睡眠开始后清醒的增加分别与1.25倍(95%CI:1.05至1.42,p<0.05)和1.49倍(95%CI:1.17至1.92,p<0.01)增加了第二天癫痫发作的几率。此外,夜间癫痫发作与睡眠效率显着降低和睡眠发作后较高的觉醒有关(p<0.05),以及唤醒后癫痫发作的几率增加(OR:5.86,95%CI:2.99至11.77,p<0.001)。
    未经评估:研究结果表明,癫痫发作前的夜晚睡眠效率较低,这表明,可穿戴传感器可能是有前途的工具,用于基于睡眠的癫痫发作日预测癫痫患者。
    UNASSIGNED: While it is known that poor sleep is a seizure precipitant, this association remains poorly quantified. This study investigated whether seizures are preceded by significant changes in sleep efficiency as measured by a wearable equipped with an electrocardiogram, respiratory bands, and an accelerometer.
    UNASSIGNED: Nocturnal recordings from 47 people with epilepsy hospitalized at our epilepsy monitoring unit were analyzed (304 nights). Sleep metrics during nights followed by epileptic seizures (24 h post-awakening) were compared to those of nights which were not.
    UNASSIGNED: Lower sleep efficiency (percentage of sleep during the night) was found in the nights preceding seizure days (p < 0.05). Each standard deviation decrease in sleep efficiency and increase in wake after sleep onset was respectively associated with a 1.25-fold (95 % CI: 1.05 to 1.42, p < 0.05) and 1.49-fold (95 % CI: 1.17 to 1.92, p < 0.01) increased odds of seizure occurrence the following day. Furthermore, nocturnal seizures were associated with significantly lower sleep efficiency and higher wake after sleep onset (p < 0.05), as well as increased odds of seizure occurrence following wake (OR: 5.86, 95 % CI: 2.99 to 11.77, p < 0.001).
    UNASSIGNED: Findings indicate lower sleep efficiency during nights preceding seizures, suggesting that wearable sensors could be promising tools for sleep-based seizure-day forecasting in people with epilepsy.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    Objectives.难治性癫痫患者被下一次癫痫发作的不确定性所淹没。对未来癫痫发作的准确预测可以大大提高这些患者的生活质量。新证据表明,某些患者的癫痫发作可能具有周期性。即使这些周期性不是直观的,它们可以通过机器学习(ML)来识别,识别具有可预测和不可预测的癫痫发作模式的患者。方法。使用来自人类癫痫项目的153名患者的自我报告癫痫发作日志,其中报告的癫痫发作超过3次(总计8337次癫痫发作),以获得癫痫发作间隔时间序列,用于训练和评估预测模型。研究了两类预测方法:(1)使用贝叶斯融合的群体和个体癫痫发作模式的统计方法;(2)基于ML的算法,包括最小二乘,最小绝对收缩和选择运算符,支持向量机(SVM)回归,和长期短期记忆回归。留一人交叉验证用于培训和评估,通过对除一名受试者以外的所有受试者的癫痫发作日记进行培训,并对被遗漏的受试者进行测试。主要结果。主要的预测模型是SVM回归和统计模型,该模型将按人群的癫痫发作时间间隔的中位数与测试对象的先前癫痫发作间隔相结合。SVM能够预测50%,70%,81%,84%,在平均绝对预测误差的0、1、2、3至4d内,未见到的受试者的癫痫发作率为87%,分别。主题表现表明,癫痫发作频率较高的患者通常可以更好地预测。意义。ML模型可以利用自我报告的癫痫发作日记中的非随机模式来预测未来的癫痫发作。虽然仅基于日记的癫痫发作预测只是癫痫患者临床护理的许多方面之一,研究癫痫发作和患者之间的可预测性水平为更好地理解基于个体化和按人群的可预测和不可预测的癫痫发作铺平了道路.
    Objectives.People with refractory epilepsy are overwhelmed by the uncertainty of their next seizures. Accurate prediction of future seizures could greatly improve the quality of life for these patients. New evidence suggests that seizure occurrences can have cyclical patterns for some patients. Even though these cyclicalities are not intuitive, they can be identified by machine learning (ML), to identify patients with predictable vs unpredictable seizure patterns.Approach.Self-reported seizure logs of 153 patients from the Human Epilepsy Project with more than three reported seizures (totaling 8337 seizures) were used to obtain inter-seizure interval time-series for training and evaluation of the forecasting models. Two classes of prediction methods were studied: (1) statistical approaches using Bayesian fusion of population-wise and individual-wise seizure patterns; and (2) ML-based algorithms including least squares, least absolute shrinkage and selection operator, support vector machine (SVM) regression, and long short-term memory regression. Leave-one-person-out cross-validation was used for training and evaluation, by training on seizure diaries of all except one subject and testing on the left-out subject.Main results.The leading forecasting models were the SVM regression and a statistical model that combined the median of population-wise seizure time-intervals with a test subject\'s prior seizure intervals. SVM was able to forecast 50%, 70%, 81%, 84%, and 87% of seizures of unseen subjects within 0, 1, 2, 3 to 4 d of mean absolute forecasting error, respectively. The subject-wise performances show that patients with more frequent seizures were generally better predicted.Significance.ML models can leverage non-random patterns within self-reported seizure diaries to forecast future seizures. While diary-based seizure forecasting alone is only one of many aspects of clinical care of patients with epilepsy, studying the level of predictability across seizures and patients paves the path towards a better understanding of predictable vs unpredictable seizures on individualized and population-wise bases.
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