seasons

季节
  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    玉米是具有全球经济重要性的作物,在巴西各地广泛种植。使用生物刺激剂可以增加产量并提高作物产量。无人驾驶飞行器可以在耕地地区使用,允许以经济的方式使用它们。本研究利用摄影测量指标评价生物刺激剂在玉米中的使用和最佳应用时机,并通过皮尔逊相关性表明最适合增产的植物指数。使用了DJI无人机和RGB相机,并通过AgisoftPhotoscan®软件对图像进行处理以生成正交马赛克,并使用带有GRASS的QGIS®软件3.4.15版生成带有植被指数分类的专题地图(NGRDI,EXG,SAVI,TGI,GLI,RI).还创建了变量之间的皮尔逊相关系数矩阵,结果用R软件进行分析。总的来说,在所研究的两个季节中,产品Pyleligneous提取物(PE)和激素产品(HP)是最好的。然而,HP是缓解干旱期植物水分胁迫的最佳产品。在物候阶段V3的施用在雨季表现出最低的生长,在旱季施用于种子。剂量4的木浆提取物在雨季增加了生产率,激素产品的水平为3.4。在评估的指标中,在这两个时期,只有SAVI指数显示出其他指数之间的显着差异,并且对生产率具有重要意义。
    Maize is a crop of global economic importance and is widely cultivated throughout the Brazilian territory. The use of biostimulants can increase yield and improve crop yield. Unmanned aerial vehicles can be employed in arable areas, allowing their use in an economically way. This study to evaluate the use of biostimulant and the best application timing using photogrammetric indexes in maize, and indicate the most suitable plant index for yield increase through a Pearson\'s correlation. The DJI Drone coupled with RGB camera was used, and the images were processed through the AgisoftPhotoscan® software to generate the orthomosaic, and the QGIS® software version 3.4.15 with GRASS was used to generate thematic maps with the classification of the indexes of vegetation (NGRDI, EXG, SAVI, TGI, GLI, RI). A matrix of Pearson correlation coefficients between the variables was also created, and the results were analyzed with the R software. In general, the products Pyroligneous Extract (PE) and the hormonal product (HP) were the best for the two seasons studied. However, the HP was the best product to mitigate plant water stress in the dry period. Application at phenological stage V3 showed the lowest growth in the rainy season and in application to the seeds in the dry season. Dose 4 of the pyroligneous extract increased productivity in the rainy season and level 3.4 for the hormone product. Among the indexes evaluated, only the SAVI index showed significant differences between the others and showed significance for productivity in the two periods.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    根据两种检测方案,这项研究分析了南大西洋最具破坏性的天气系统之一-爆炸性旋风,从2010年到2020年。然后,提出了两种方法来研究这些系统:观测方法(OBSM)和自动方法(AUTM)。第一种方法是使用网格分析和显示(GrADS)软件对平均海平面压力(mslp)字段和函数进行可视化分析,以识别局部最小值。第二个使用OpenGrADS中的一个名为mfhilo的函数。它使用拉普拉斯算子显示网格中的局部最小值,量级,和百分位数。AUTM使用了两种用于数据处理的外壳算法:一种是根据先前定义的固定区域跟踪旋风的轨迹,另一种是将它们分离成炸药。OBSM方法显示271例,平均每年25例,并揭示了有关强度的重要特征。根据AUTM的方法论,从确定的2705个普通气旋病例中,299是炸药。南美的系统分布有明显的季节性模式,类似于OBSM,但更加突出。在夏天,他们集中在高纬度,在冬天和春天,他们聚集在巴西南部和乌拉圭海岸附近。
    Under two detection schemes, this study analyzes one of the most destructive weather systems - the explosive cyclones - in the South Atlantic, from 2010 to 2020. Then, two methods are presented to study these systems: the Observational Method (OBSM) and the Automated Method (AUTM). The first uses visual analysis of the mean sea level pressure (mslp) fields and functions to identify the local minimums using the Grid Analysis and Display (GrADS) software. The second utilizes a function from OpenGrADS called mfhilo. It shows the local minimum in the grid using laplacian, magnitude, and percentile. Two shell algorithms for data manipulation are used for the AUTM: one to trace the cyclones\' trajectories according to a previously defined fixed area and the other to separate them into explosives. The OBSM methodology showed 271 cases averaging 25 yearly and revealed important characteristics regarding the intensities. According to AUTM\'s methodology, from the 2705 ordinary cyclone cases identified, 299 are explosives. There is a clear seasonality pattern in the systems\' distribution along South America, similar to OBSM, but more highlighted. In summer, they concentrate at high latitudes, while in winter and spring, they are assembled near southern Brazilian and Uruguayan coasts.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    环境与动物生命之间的关系开始被视为帮助控制人畜共患病的重要工具。气候变化导致环境的变化,这会影响物种的空间分布,因此,疾病向人类的传播。被认为是巴西曼氏血吸虫的主要非人最终寄主物种,野生啮齿动物Nectomysquamipes在没有人类的情况下维持血吸虫病周期方面起着重要作用。这项研究证明了Barbacena(米纳斯吉拉斯州)区域卫生监督中的Mansoni中间和最终野生寄主的生态位建模结果,注册了31个城市,其中80%被归类为寄生虫病的地方病。根据来自全球生物多样性信息设施(GBIF)和物种链接的科学收藏的信息,使用与每个物种分布相关的环境变量,以在地理空间中预测生态位模型。非生物变量,如年平均温度,等温性,和降水季节性来自世界气候。野生寄主的生态位建模,N.squamipes,揭示了该物种与Biomphalaria物种的地理重叠。了解生物气候变量的影响并确定建立的有利条件,发生,和物种分布是制定战略行动以监视和控制该特有物种的重要信息。血吸虫病的控制程序需要考虑确定的野生宿主的存在。
    The relationship between the environment and animal life began to be seen as an important tool to help control zoonoses. Climate variations lead to changes in the environment, which can influence the spatial distribution of species and, consequently, the spread of diseases to humans. Considered the main non-human definitive host species of Schistosoma mansoni in Brazil, the wild rodent Nectomys squamipes plays an important role as a reservoir in maintaining the schistosomiasis cycle in the absence of humans. This study demonstrates the results of ecological niche modeling of intermediate and definitive wild hosts of S. mansoni in the Regional Health Superintendence of Barbacena (Minas Gerais State), which has registered 31 municipalities, 80% of which are classified as endemic for parasitosis. Environmental variables associated with the distribution of each species were used based on information from the scientific collections of Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF) and Species Link to project the ecological niche model in the geographic space. Abiotic variables such as the mean annual temperature, isothermality, and precipitation seasonality were obtained from World Clim. Ecological niche modeling of the wild host, N. squamipes, revealed the occurrence of the species in geographic overlap with the Biomphalaria species. Knowing the influence of bioclimatic variables and identifying favorable conditions for the establishment, occurrence, and distribution of species are important information for developing strategic actions for the surveillance and control of this endemic species. The presence of the definitive wild host needs to be considered by control programs of schistosomiasis.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    背景:自2005年以来,美国活体肾脏捐献者的数量有所下降,但根据捐献者与受者的关系有所变化。这种下降的原因尚不清楚,减轻捐赠减少的战略仍然难以捉摸。我们检查了每月(年内)与每年(年内)的捐赠者数量变化,以告知未来干预措施的潜在可修改因素。
    方法:在1995年至2019年间对141.759名活体肾脏捐献者进行的基于注册表的队列分析中,我们使用线性混合效应模型对每月和每年的捐献者数量进行分析,以分析年之间和年内的变化。我们使用Poisson回归来量化2005年前后每个季节捐赠者数量的变化,并按捐赠者与接受者的关系和邮政编码家庭收入三位数进行分层。
    结果:我们观察到6月份夏季捐款持续激增,七月,和八月。对于捐助者收入的相关捐助者(发生率比率[IRR]范围:1.12-1.33)和无关捐助者(IRR范围:1.06-1.16),这一激增具有统计学意义。
    结论:我们的研究结果表明,非夏季月的活肾捐献率在不同的收入季度较低。需要采取干预措施来解决非夏季捐赠障碍,并促进全年捐赠。由于器官捐赠假法律为支持全年捐赠提供了坚实的基础,将法律规定扩展到联邦雇员之外可能会减轻已确定的季节性障碍。
    BACKGROUND: The number of living kidney donors in the United States has declined since 2005, with variations based on the donor-recipient relationship. The reasons for this decline are unclear, and strategies to mitigate declined donations remain elusive. We examined the change in donor number monthly (within-year) versus annually (between-years) to inform potentially modifiable factors for future interventions.
    METHODS: In this registry-based cohort analysis of 141 759 living kidney donors between 1995 and 2019, we used linear mixed-effects models for donor number per month and year to analyze between-year and within-year variation in donation. We used Poisson regression to quantify the change in the number of donors per season before and after 2005, stratified by donor-recipient relationship and zip-code household income tertile.
    RESULTS: We observed a consistent summer surge in donations during June, July, and August. This surge was statistically significant for related donors (incidence rate ratio [IRR] range: 1.12-1.33) and unrelated donors (IRR range: 1.06-1.16) across donor income tertiles.
    CONCLUSIONS: Our findings indicate lower rates of living kidney donation in non-summer months across income tertiles. Interventions are needed to address barriers to donation in non-summer seasons and facilitate donations throughout the year. Since the Organ Donor Leave Law provides a solid foundation for supporting year-round donation, extending the law\'s provisions beyond federal employees may mitigate identified seasonal barriers.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    人口流动的社区水平变化可以极大地改变任何直接传播的传染病的轨迹,通过修改发生接触的地点和人之间。这在整个COVID-19大流行中都得到了强调,社区反应和非药物干预改变了SARS-CoV-2传播的轨迹,有时以不可预测的方式。流动性的人口水平变化也会在季节性和其他重大事件期间发生,比如飓风或地震。有效预测未来新出现的直传疾病的传播,我们应该更好地了解传染病的空间传播是如何季节性变化的,当社区积极应对当地疾病爆发和旅行限制时。
    这里,我们使用弗吉尼亚州2019年8月至2023年3月的人口流动数据来模拟不同月份人口流动模式下假设的直接传播疾病的传播.通过根据爆发的地点和使用的流动模式比较疾病的传播,我们确定风险最高的地区和时期,并阐明季节性和大流行时期的流动模式如何改变疾病传播的轨迹。
    通过这种分析,我们确定,虽然城市地区在大流行前处于最高风险,SARS-CoV-2病例引起的社区反应的异质性意味着当整个弗吉尼亚州爆发时,农村地区的风险相对较高。Further,9月和1月导致学生人口众多的县变得特别危险,随着学生重返校园,进出这些县的人口大量增加。
    UNASSIGNED: Community-level changes in population mobility can dramatically change the trajectory of any directly-transmitted infectious disease, by modifying where and between whom contact occurs. This was highlighted throughout the COVID-19 pandemic, where community response and nonpharmaceutical interventions changed the trajectory of SARS-CoV-2 spread, sometimes in unpredictable ways. Population-level changes in mobility also occur seasonally and during other significant events, such as hurricanes or earthquakes. To effectively predict the spread of future emerging directly-transmitted diseases, we should better understand how the spatial spread of infectious disease changes seasonally, and when communities are actively responding to local disease outbreaks and travel restrictions.
    UNASSIGNED: Here, we use population mobility data from Virginia spanning Aug 2019-March 2023 to simulate the spread of a hypothetical directly-transmitted disease under the population mobility patterns from various months. By comparing the spread of disease based on where the outbreak begins and the mobility patterns used, we determine the highest-risk areas and periods, and elucidate how seasonal and pandemic-era mobility patterns could change the trajectory of disease transmission.
    UNASSIGNED: Through this analysis, we determine that while urban areas were at highest risk pre-pandemic, the heterogeneous nature of community response induced by SARS-CoV-2 cases meant that when outbreaks were occurring across Virginia, rural areas became relatively higher risk. Further, the months of September and January led to counties with large student populations to become particularly at risk, as population flows in and out of these counties were greatly increased with students returning to school.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    东亚食草水禽春季大量利用农田,在它们的自然栖息地旁边。因此,他们可能已经将其迁移策略从仅仅跟踪新出现的植被的绿色浪潮扩展到还纳入收获后农业种子的可用性(这里称为种子浪潮)。然而,水禽是否以及如何利用多种食物资源来定时其季节性迁移仍然未知。我们使用五种东亚食草水禽物种的167条春季迁移轨迹和混合效应资源选择功能模型来测试这种迁移策略。我们发现,所有研究物种都在获得农业种子后到达东北平原的核心中途停留点,在春天的植被出现后延长了他们的逗留时间,并在植被出现时到达了他们的繁殖地。在核心中途停留点,所有研究物种都使用融雪作为跟踪种子可用性的线索,尽管体型较小的物种往往会晚一点到达。在繁殖地点,天鹅追踪植被出现的开始,鹅追踪融雪的中期或末期。我们的发现表明,水禽跟踪多个资源波以微调其迁移,强调保护的新机会。
    East Asian herbivorous waterfowl intensively use farmland in spring, next to their natural habitat. Accordingly, they might have expanded their migration strategy from merely tracking the green wave of newly emerging vegetation to also incorporating the availability of post-harvest agricultural seeds (here dubbed the seed wave). However, if and how waterfowl use multiple food resources to time their seasonal migration is still unknown. We test this migration strategy using 167 spring migration tracks of five East Asian herbivorous waterfowl species and mixed-effect resource selection function models. We found that all study species arrived at their core stopover sites in the Northeast China Plain after agricultural seeds became available, extended their stay after spring vegetation emerged and arrived at their breeding sites around the emergence of vegetation. At the core stopover sites, all study species used snowmelt as a cue to track seed availability, although smaller-bodied species tended to arrive later. At the breeding sites, swans tracked the onset of vegetation emergence and geese tracked the mid- or end phases of snowmelt. Our findings suggest that waterfowl track multiple resource waves to fine-tune their migration, highlighting new opportunities for conservation.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    背景:近年来,乙型/山形流感病毒表现出微弱的抗原性选择,随着时间的推移降低其流行率,并且自2015年以来不需要更新疫苗成分。迄今为止,自2020年3月以来,尚未对B/Yamagata病毒进行分离或测序。
    方法:调查了意大利针对当前B/Yamagata疫苗株的抗体流行率:对于2012/2013年至2021/2022年的每个流感季节,通过血细胞凝集抑制(HAI)试验测试了100个人血清样品对疫苗株B/Phuket/3073/2013。此外,我们选择了在流感监测活动期间分离的156株B/Yamagata菌株序列,用于血凝素基因组片段分析.
    结果:大约61.9%的人类样本显示HAI抗体,21.7%有保护性抗体水平。在分离菌株和将其纳入疫苗之间的季节中,保护水平的抗体患病率在11%至25%之间,在随后的几年中没有观察到重大变化。在2020/2021赛季观察到显著增加,与流感大流行期间流感疫苗摄入量的增加相一致。序列分析表明,从2014/2015赛季开始,在意大利传播的所有B/Yamagata菌株与B/普吉/2013疫苗菌株密切相关,仅显示有限的氨基酸变异。
    结论:在普通人群中观察到针对当前B/Yamagata疫苗株的抗体的一致流行。长期使用匹配良好的流感疫苗和B/Yamagata病毒的低抗原多样性可能促进了B/Yamagata循环的大大减少,可能导致这个血统的消失。
    BACKGROUND: Influenza B/Yamagata viruses exhibited weak antigenic selection in recent years, reducing their prevalence over time and requiring no update of the vaccine component since 2015. To date, no B/Yamagata viruses have been isolated or sequenced since March 2020.
    METHODS: The antibody prevalence against the current B/Yamagata vaccine strain in Italy was investigated: For each influenza season from 2012/2013 to 2021/2022, 100 human serum samples were tested by haemagglutination inhibition (HAI) assay against the vaccine strain B/Phuket/3073/2013. In addition, the sequences of 156 B/Yamagata strains isolated during the influenza surveillance activities were selected for analysis of the haemagglutinin genome segment.
    RESULTS: About 61.9% of the human samples showed HAI antibodies, and 21.7% had protective antibody levels. The prevalence of antibodies at protective levels in the seasons between the isolation of the strain and its inclusion in the vaccine was between 11% and 25%, with no significant changes observed in subsequent years. A significant increase was observed in the 2020/2021 season, in line with the increase in influenza vaccine uptake during the pandemic. Sequence analysis showed that from 2014/2015 season onward, all B/Yamagata strains circulating in Italy were closely related to the B/Phuket/2013 vaccine strain, showing only limited amino acid variation.
    CONCLUSIONS: A consistent prevalence of antibodies to the current B/Yamagata vaccine strain in the general population was observed. The prolonged use of a well-matched influenza vaccine and a low antigenic diversity of B/Yamagata viruses may have facilitated a strong reduction in B/Yamagata circulation, potentially contributing to the disappearance of this lineage.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    背景:多个武装团体之间正在发生冲突,包括中非共和国的牧民(CAR)导致频繁的人口流离失所,粮食不安全和医疗服务短缺。CAR的许多地区无法进入和不安全限制了国家营养调查的数据收集和评估。由国际非政府组织培训的社区卫生工作者(CHW),导师倡议,向生活在中非共和国西北部八个县难以到达和受冲突影响地区的5岁以下儿童提供基本医疗服务。他们的营养状况及其与地理的联系,疟疾,季节和冲突是未知的。
    方法:CHW月度记录(2015年10月至2021年8月),武装冲突地点和事件数据项目的冲突数据和世界银行集团气象数据分析了西北CAR的八个县。通过中上臂围评估的全球急性营养不良(GAM)计数与疟疾之间的关联,使用负二项回归研究季节和冲突。
    结果:在对6-59个月儿童的457,325次咨询中,6.2%及0.4%被列为中度或严重营养不良,分别。负二项模型显示了各县GAM计数的差异。GAM计数与重症疟疾病例(IRR=1.045;95%CI:1.04-1.06)和雨季(7月至9月)(IRR=1.10;95%CI:1.03-1.17)呈正相关。在ACLED中编码为战斗的冲突事件与较低的GAM计数相关(IRR=0.78;95%CI:0.62-0.97)。
    结论:该分析显示了西北CAR地区营养不良程度的地理差异,并显示了营养不良之间的明显关联。季节和疟疾。它提供了证据,表明在经历冲突的地区,西北中非共和国的GAM水平可能被低估。这些发现强调需要有针对性的营养支持,以达到营养不良风险最大的儿童。CHW是一种行之有效的手段,可以在难以到达的地方提供基本的初级卫生保健服务,受冲突影响的地区。
    BACKGROUND: Ongoing conflict between multiple armed groups, including pastoralist herders in the Central African Republic (CAR) causes frequent population displacements, food insecurity and scarcity of healthcare services. The inaccessibility and insecurity of many areas of CAR limit data collection and assessments from national nutritional surveys. Community health workers (CHWs) trained by an international non-governmental organisation, The MENTOR Initiative, deliver basic healthcare to children under 5 years old living in hard-to-reach and conflict-affected areas in eight subprefectures of north-west CAR. Their nutritional status and its associations with geography, malaria, season and conflict are unknown.
    METHODS: CHW monthly records (October 2015-August 2021), Armed Conflict Location and Event Data project conflict data and The World Bank Group meteorological data for eight subprefectures of north-west CAR were analysed. Associations between counts of global acute malnutrition (GAM) assessed by mid-upper arm circumference and malaria, season and conflict were investigated using negative binomial regression.
    RESULTS: Of the 457,325 consultations with children aged 6-59 months, 6.2% and 0.4% were classified as moderately or severely malnourished, respectively. The negative binomial model demonstrated differences in counts of GAM by subprefecture. Counts of GAM were positively associated with the case rate of severe malaria (IRR = 1.045; 95% CI: 1.04-1.06) and the rainy season (July-September) (IRR = 1.10; 95% CI: 1.03-1.17). Conflict events coded as Battles in ACLED were associated with lower counts of GAM (IRR = 0.78; 95% CI: 0.62-0.97).
    CONCLUSIONS: This analysis shows geographical differences in levels of malnutrition in north-west CAR and demonstrates clear associations between malnutrition, season and malaria. It provides evidence that levels of GAM may be underestimated in north-west CAR in areas experiencing conflict. These findings highlight the need for targeted nutritional support to reach children most at risk of malnutrition. CHWs are a proven effective means of delivering essential primary healthcare services in hard-to-reach, conflict-affected areas.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    背景:塔那那利佛,马达加斯加的首都,正在经历人口稳定增长。由于这个地方有大量的蚊媒,因此,接触蚊媒疾病的人口也在增加,流行病发作的风险也是如此。本研究的目的是评估,在资源有限的环境中,通过在多宿主单站点进行的纵向昆虫学研究,可以提供有关蚊子种群动态和疾病传播风险的信息。
    方法:在16个月内(从2017年1月至2018年4月),在塔那那利佛的城市周边地区使用六个CDC光陷阱每15天收集一次蚊子。使用主要蚊子的室内和室外密度作为响应变量和月球照明,开发了多变量广义线性模型。环境数据和气候数据作为解释变量。
    结果:总体而言,收集了46,737只属于至少20种的蚊子,其中库蚊(68.9%),库蚊(19.8%),库蚊(3.7%)和冈比亚按蚊(2.3%)是最丰富的物种。观察到蚊子密度是由月球照明和在不同滞后时期相互作用的气候因素驱动的。室外模型展示了蚊子密度的双周和季节性模式,而室内模型仅显示出季节性模式。
    结论:塔那那利佛市区周边地区存在重要的蚊子多样性。一些著名的媒介物种,比如CX。触角,西尼罗河病毒(WNV)和裂谷热病毒(RVFV)的主要载体,Cx.Quinquefasciatus,WNV的主要载体,Cx.poicilipes,RVFV和An的候选向量。冈比亚森苏拉托,疟原虫的主要载体.,丰富。重要的是,这四种蚊子全年都有,尽管它们的丰度在寒冷干燥的季节下降,除了CX。Quinquefasciatus.发现它们丰富的主要驱动因素是温度,相对湿度和降水,以及-仅用于户外丰富的月亮照明。识别这些驱动因素是病原体传播模型(R0模型)发展的第一步,这是告知公共卫生利益攸关方媒介传播疾病风险最大的时期的关键。
    BACKGROUND: Antananarivo, the capital city of Madagascar, is experiencing a steady increase in population growth. Due to the abundance of mosquito vectors in this locality, the population exposed to mosquito-borne diseases is therefore also increasing, as is the risk of epidemic episodes. The aim of the present study was to assess, in a resource-limited setting, the information on mosquito population dynamics and disease transmission risk that can be provided through a longitudinal entomological study carried out in a multi-host single site.
    METHODS: Mosquitoes were collected every 15 days over 16 months (from January 2017 to April 2018) using six CDC-light traps in a peri-urban area of Antananarivo. Multivariable generalised linear models were developed using indoor and outdoor densities of the predominant mosquito species as response variables and moon illumination, environmental data and climatic data as the explanatory variables.
    RESULTS: Overall, 46,737 mosquitoes belonging to at least 20 species were collected, of which Culex antennatus (68.9%), Culex quinquefasciatus (19.8%), Culex poicilipes (3.7%) and Anopheles gambiae sensu lato (2.3%) were the most abundant species. Mosquito densities were observed to be driven by moon illumination and climatic factors interacting at different lag periods. The outdoor models demonstrated biweekly and seasonal patterns of mosquito densities, while the indoor models demonstrated only a seasonal pattern.
    CONCLUSIONS: An important diversity of mosquitoes exists in the peri-urban area of Antananarivo. Some well-known vector species, such as Cx. antennatus, a major vector of West Nile virus (WNV) and Rift-Valley fever virus (RVFV), Cx. quinquefasciatus, a major vector of WNV, Cx. poicilipes, a candidate vector of RVFV and An. gambiae sensu lato, a major vector of Plasmodium spp., are abundant. Importantly, these four mosquito species are present all year round, even though their abundance declines during the cold dry season, with the exception of Cx. quinquefasciatus. The main drivers of their abundance were found to be temperature, relative humidity and precipitation, as well as-for outdoor abundance only-moon illumination. Identifying these drivers is a first step towards the development of pathogen transmission models (R0 models), which are key to inform public health stakeholders on the periods of most risk for vector-borne diseases.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    背景:疟疾仍然是一个重要的公共卫生问题,特别是在撒哈拉以南非洲。在卢旺达,疟疾是导致死亡和发病的主要原因之一,疾病传播受气候因素的影响。然而,研究气候变化和疟疾动态之间的联系的研究很少,这阻碍了制定有效的国家疟疾应对战略。解决这一关键差距,这项研究分析了气候因素如何影响疟疾在卢旺达的传播,从而告知量身定制的干预措施并加强疾病管理框架。
    方法:该研究使用卢旺达气象局的气象数据和卢旺达卫生管理和信息系统的疟疾病例记录,分析了温度和累积降雨对卢旺达2012年至2021年疟疾发病率的潜在影响。分析分两个阶段进行。首先,应用了具有拟泊松分布的区域特定广义线性模型,通过分布式滞后非线性模型来探索非线性和滞后效应。第二,随机效应多变量荟萃分析用于汇集估计值,并通过最佳线性无偏预测来完善估计值.
    结果:特定温度和降雨阈值的1个月滞后影响了整个卢旺达的疟疾发病率。18.5°C的平均温度与更高的疟疾风险相关,而高于23.9°C的温度降低了风险。降雨对疟疾风险具有双重影响:低(每月73毫米以下)和高(每月223毫米以上)的降水条件与较低的风险相关。而中等降雨量(每月87至223毫米)与较高的风险相关。季节性模式显示,在主要雨季,疟疾风险增加,而短暂的旱季风险较低。
    结论:该研究强调了温度和降雨对卢旺达疟疾传播的影响,并呼吁针对地点和季节采取量身定制的干预措施。这些发现对于为加强备灾和促进消除疟疾努力的政策提供信息至关重要。未来的研究应探索其他生态和社会经济因素及其对疟疾传播的不同贡献。
    BACKGROUND: Malaria remains an important public health problem, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa. In Rwanda, where malaria ranks among the leading causes of mortality and morbidity, disease transmission is influenced by climatic factors. However, there is a paucity of studies investigating the link between climate change and malaria dynamics, which hinders the development of effective national malaria response strategies. Addressing this critical gap, this study analyses how climatic factors influence malaria transmission across Rwanda, thereby informing tailored interventions and enhancing disease management frameworks.
    METHODS: The study analysed the potential impact of temperature and cumulative rainfall on malaria incidence in Rwanda from 2012 to 2021 using meteorological data from the Rwanda Meteorological Agency and malaria case records from the Rwanda Health Management and Information System. The analysis was performed in two stages. First, district-specific generalized linear models with a quasi-Poisson distribution were applied, which were enhanced by distributed lag non-linear models to explore non-linear and lagged effects. Second, random effects multivariate meta-analysis was employed to pool the estimates and to refine them through best linear unbiased predictions.
    RESULTS: A 1-month lag with specific temperature and rainfall thresholds influenced malaria incidence across Rwanda. Average temperature of 18.5 °C was associated with higher malaria risk, while temperature above 23.9 °C reduced the risk. Rainfall demonstrated a dual effect on malaria risk: conditions of low (below 73 mm per month) and high (above 223 mm per month) precipitation correlated with lower risk, while moderate rainfall (87 to 223 mm per month) correlated with higher risk. Seasonal patterns showed increased malaria risk during the major rainy season, while the short dry season presented lower risk.
    CONCLUSIONS: The study underscores the influence of temperature and rainfall on malaria transmission in Rwanda and calls for tailored interventions that are specific to location and season. The findings are crucial for informing policy that enhance preparedness and contribute to malaria elimination efforts. Future research should explore additional ecological and socioeconomic factors and their differential contribution to malaria transmission.
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