潮汐动力学是众所周知的红树林分布的驱动因素,大多数预测措施使用某种形式的潮汐参数(潮汐平面或水文周期)来定义红树林范围。然而,这些方法往往没有考虑到红树林在特定海拔高度生长或死亡的原因,或者红树林生存能力阈值在整个物种生命周期中的差异。对影响红树林建立的驱动因素缺乏了解,导致全球红树林恢复和创造项目的成功率很低。提出了一种使用多强迫阈值方法的新型红树林生命周期模型,以模拟Avicennia码头在建立和开发阶段的生存能力。生命周期模型包括繁殖的关键阈值阶段,种子传播,幼苗的建立和发育,和成熟的树生存。该模型在澳大利亚东部的37个地点进行了验证,以预测各种河口类型和潮汐动态条件下的红树林范围。该模型准确计算了红树林上(RMSE=0.0676,R2=0.8932)和下(RMSE=0.0899,R2=0.7417)面高程,为建立和发展提供生理推理。根据测试的各种条件,模型结果突出了Avicennia森林蓬勃发展的高度动态的时空条件。发现影响红树林建立的压力因素是所有地点红树林范围的主要因素。然而,河口类型学在强制门槛限制和建立机会方面很重要。与潮汐明显衰减的河口相比,潮汐衰减有限(来自海洋强迫)的河口为红树林提供了更多的建立机会。不管河口类型如何,所有测试的站点在时间上都具有很大的空间变异性.生命周期模型的结果表明,成熟的Avicennia森林在广泛的水文条件下建立并繁衍。这种韧性表明,成熟的红树林可能能够通过生物物理适应来承受气候和水文压力的增加,尽管阈值上限和可接受的变化率难以预测。总的来说,这项研究强调了一种新的因果方法在不同生命周期阶段估计红树林范围的价值,地点,和时间段。
Tidal dynamics are a well-known driver of mangrove distribution, with most predictive measures using some form of tidal parameter (tidal plane or hydroperiod) to define mangrove extent. However, these methods often fail to consider the causative reason why mangroves thrive or perish at a specific elevation or how mangrove survivability thresholds can differ across a species\' lifecycle. The lack of understanding of the drivers influencing mangrove establishment has resulted in poor success rates for mangrove restoration and creation projects worldwide. A novel mangrove lifecycle model that uses a multi-forcing threshold approach is proposed to simulate Avicennia marina viability across establishment and development phases. The lifecycle model includes critical threshold stages for reproduction, seed dispersal, seedling establishment and development, and mature tree survival. The model was validated at 37 sites in eastern Australia to predict mangrove extent across various estuary types and tidal dynamic conditions. The model accurately calculated the upper (RMSE = 0.0676, R2 = 0.8932) and lower (RMSE = 0.0899, R2 = 0.7417) mangrove surface elevations, providing physiological reasoning for establishment and development. Based on the various conditions tested, the model results highlight the highly dynamic spatial and temporal conditions where Avicennia forests thrive. It was found that stressors influencing mangrove establishment were the primary factor for mangrove extent across all sites. However, estuarine typology is important in forcing threshold limits and establishment opportunities. Estuaries with limited tidal decay (from the oceanic forcing) provide more opportunities for mangroves to establish than estuaries with significant tidal attenuation. Regardless of estuary typology, all sites tested had substantial spatial variability through time. Results from the lifecycle model suggest that mature Avicennia forests establish and thrive under a wide range of hydrologic conditions. This resilience suggests that mature mangroves may be able to withstand increases in climatic and hydrologic pressures via biophysical adaptations, although the upper thresholds and acceptable rates of change are difficult to predict. Overall, this study highlights the value of a new causal method for estimating mangrove extent across various lifecycle stages, locations, and time periods.