BACKGROUND: During 2020-2021 Australia maintained comparatively low rates of COVID-19 in the community and residential aged care facilities (RAC) due to stringent public health measures such as lockdowns. However, the public health measures implemented may have had unintended impacts on critical RAC resident health outcomes, such as falls, due to routine care disruptions and aged care resident isolation. We utilised a longitudinal data to assess the association between COVID-19 lockdowns and the rate of falls in RAC settings.
METHODS: A longitudinal cohort study was conduct using routinely collected data from 25 RAC facilities from one non-profit aged care provider in Sydney, Australia. The study included 2,996 long term residents between March 2019 and March 2021. The outcome measures were all falls, injurious falls, and falls assessed as requiring hospitalisation. Generalised estimating equations (GEE) were applied to determine the association between COVID-19 lockdown periods and fall-related outcomes while adjusting for confounders and seasonality.
RESULTS: During the study period 11,658 falls were recorded. Residents frequently experienced at least one fall during the study period (median: 1, interquartile range: 0-4). During Lockdown 1 (March-June 2020) the rate of all falls increased 32% (IRR 1.32, 95% CI 1.19-1.46, p < 0.01) and the rate of injurious falls increased by 28% (IRR 1.28, 95% CI 1.12-1.46, p < 0.01) compared to pre-pandemic rates. The rate of falls assessed as requiring hospitalisation remained unchanged during Lockdown 1 (IRR 1.07, 95% CI 0.86-1.32, p = 0.519). During Lockdown 2 (Dec 2020-Jan 2021) the rate of all falls, injurious falls, and falls assessed as requiring hospitalisation did not change significantly compared to pre-pandemic rates.
CONCLUSIONS: These findings suggest that the consequences of stringent COVID-19 restrictions, as seen in Lockdown 1, produced changes in residents\' care which contributed to more falls and associated harm. The subsequent lockdown, which were less restrictive and occurred after staff had gained experience, was associated with no significant increase in falls rate. The nature and extent of lockdowns implemented for infection control in RAC need to balance multiple potential adverse effects. Factors which facilitated resilience during this period require exploration in future research.

OBJECTIVE: Racial and ethnic differences in presentation and outcomes have been reported in systemic sclerosis (SSc) and SSc-interstitial lung disease (ILD). However, prior studies have limited diversity. We aim to evaluate if there are racial/ethnic differences associated with ILD, time intervals between SSc and ILD and with emergency department (ED) visit or hospitalization rates.
METHODS: Clinical and sociodemographic variables were extracted for 756 patients with SSc from longitudinal health records in an integrated health-system. Logistic regression models analyzed the association of covariates with ILD and age at SSc-ILD. Healthcare outcomes were analyzed with complementary log-log regression models.
RESULTS: Overall, 33.7% of patients in the cohort had an ILD code, with increased odds for Asian (odds ratio [OR], 2.60; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.29-5.28; p=0.008) compared with White patients. The predicted age in years of SSc-ILD was younger for Hispanic (estimate, -6.5; 95% CI, -13--0.21; p = 0.04) and Black/African American patients (-10; 95% CI -16--4.9; p < 0.001) compared with White patients. Black/African American patients were more likely to have an ILD code before an SSc code (59% compared with 20.6% of White patients), and the shortest interval from SSc to ILD (3 months). Black/African American (HR, 2.59; 95% CI 1.47-4.49; p = 0.001) and Hispanic patients (HR 2.29; 95% CI 1.37- 3.82; p = 0.002) had higher rates of an ED visit.
CONCLUSIONS: We found that odds of SSc-ILD differed by racial/ethnic group, minoritized patients had earlier age of presentation, and greater rates of an ED visit.

BACKGROUND: Prediction models can identify fall-prone individuals. Prediction models can be based on either data from research cohorts (cohort-based) or routinely collected data (RCD-based). We review and compare cohort-based and RCD-based studies describing the development and/or validation of fall prediction models for community-dwelling older adults.
METHODS: Medline and Embase were searched via Ovid until January 2023. We included studies describing the development or validation of multivariable prediction models of falls in older adults (60+). Both risk of bias and reporting quality were assessed using the PROBAST and TRIPOD, respectively.
RESULTS: We included and reviewed 28 relevant studies, describing 30 prediction models (23 cohort-based and 7 RCD-based), and external validation of two existing models (one cohort-based and one RCD-based). The median sample sizes for cohort-based and RCD-based studies were 1365 [interquartile range (IQR) 426-2766] versus 90 441 (IQR 56 442-128 157), and the ranges of fall rates were 5.4% to 60.4% versus 1.6% to 13.1%, respectively. Discrimination performance was comparable between cohort-based and RCD-based models, with the respective area under the receiver operating characteristic curves ranging from 0.65 to 0.88 versus 0.71 to 0.81. The median number of predictors in cohort-based final models was 6 (IQR 5-11); for RCD-based models, it was 16 (IQR 11-26). All but one cohort-based model had high bias risks, primarily due to deficiencies in statistical analysis and outcome determination.
CONCLUSIONS: Cohort-based models to predict falls in older adults in the community are plentiful. RCD-based models are yet in their infancy but provide comparable predictive performance with no additional data collection efforts. Future studies should focus on methodological and reporting quality.

Objective: Routine health data has the potential to identify changes in patient-related outcomes, in close to real time. This pilot project used routine data to explore and compare the impact of changes to cultural responsiveness on service use by Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander (hereafter, Aboriginal) clients in Australia.Methods: The New South Wales Minimum Data Set (MDS) for alcohol and other drug use treatment services was provided for 11 services for a period of 30 months from March 2019 to September 2021 (four months prior to two years after the intervention; data were analysed between March 2022 to February 2023). Change in cultural responsiveness was assessed via practice audits of services at baseline and two years. The average change in audit rating was analysed using a linear mixed regression model. Generalised Linear Mixed Models were used to identify changes in service use by Aboriginal clients. Results: All 11 services showed increased audit scores at two years, with a statistically significant mean increase of 18.6 (out of 63 points; b = 18.32, 95% CI 12.42-24.22). No statistically significant pre-to post-changes were identified in: (1) the proportion of episodes delivered to Aboriginal versus non-Aboriginal clients (OR = 1.15, 95% CI = 0.94-1.40), (2) the number of episodes of care provided to Aboriginal clients per month (IRR = 1.01, 95% CI = 0.84-1.23), or (3) the proportion of episodes completed by Aboriginal clients (OR = 0.96, 95% CI = 0.82-1.13). Conclusions: The lack of statistically significant impact on service use outcomes using MDS contrasts to the improvements in cultural responsiveness, suggesting further work is needed to identify appropriate outcome measures. This may include patient-reported experience measures. This project showed that routine data has potential as an efficient method for measuring changes in patient-related outcomes in response to health services improvements.

暂无摘要。

OBJECTIVE: People with epilepsy (PWE) may be at an increased risk of severe COVID-19. It is important to characterize this risk to inform PWE and for future health and care planning. We assessed whether PWE were at higher risk of being hospitalized with, or dying from, COVID-19.
METHODS: We performed a retrospective cohort study using linked, population-scale, anonymized electronic health records from the SAIL (Secure Anonymised Information Linkage) databank. This includes hospital admission and demographic data for the complete Welsh population (3.1 million) and primary care records for 86% of the population. We identified 27 279 PWE living in Wales during the study period (March 1, 2020 to June 30, 2021). Controls were identified using exact 5:1 matching (sex, age, and socioeconomic status). We defined COVID-19 deaths as having International Classification of Diseases, 10th Revision (ICD-10) codes for COVID-19 on death certificates or occurring within 28 days of a positive SARS-CoV-2 polymerase chain reaction (PCR) test. COVID-19 hospitalizations were defined as having a COVID-19 ICD-10 code for the reason for admission or occurring within 28 days of a positive SARS-CoV-2 PCR test. We recorded COVID-19 vaccinations and comorbidities known to increase the risk of COVID-19 hospitalization and death. We used Cox proportional hazard models to calculate hazard ratios.
RESULTS: There were 158 (.58%) COVID-19 deaths and 933 (3.4%) COVID-19 hospitalizations in PWE, and 370 (.27%) deaths and 1871 (1.4%) hospitalizations in controls. Hazard ratios for COVID-19 death and hospitalization in PWE compared to controls were 2.15 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.78-2.59) and 2.15 (95% CI = 1.94-2.37), respectively. Adjusted hazard ratios (adjusted for comorbidities) for death and hospitalization were 1.32 (95% CI = 1.08-1.62) and 1.60 (95% CI = 1.44-1.78).
CONCLUSIONS: PWE are at increased risk of being hospitalized with, and dying from, COVID-19 when compared to age-, sex-, and deprivation-matched controls, even when adjusting for comorbidities. This may have implications for prioritizing future COVID-19 treatments and vaccinations for PWE.

OBJECTIVE: This study was undertaken to characterize changes in health care utilization and mortality for people with epilepsy (PWE) during the COVID-19 pandemic.
METHODS: We performed a retrospective study using linked, individual-level, population-scale anonymized health data from the Secure Anonymised Information Linkage databank. We identified PWE living in Wales during the study \"pandemic period\" (January 1, 2020-June 30, 2021) and during a \"prepandemic\" period (January 1, 2016-December 31, 2019). We compared prepandemic health care utilization, status epilepticus, and mortality rates with corresponding pandemic rates for PWE and people without epilepsy (PWOE). We performed subgroup analyses on children (<18 years old), older people (>65 years old), those with intellectual disability, and those living in the most deprived areas. We used Poisson models to calculate adjusted rate ratios (RRs).
RESULTS: We identified 27 279 PWE who had significantly higher rates of hospital (50.3 visits/1000 patient months), emergency department (55.7), and outpatient attendance (172.4) when compared to PWOE (corresponding figures: 25.7, 25.2, and 87.0) in the prepandemic period. Hospital and epilepsy-related hospital admissions, and emergency department and outpatient attendances all reduced significantly for PWE (and all subgroups) during the pandemic period. RRs [95% confidence intervals (CIs)] for pandemic versus prepandemic periods were .70 [.69-.72], .77 [.73-.81], .78 [.77-.79], and .80 [.79-.81]. The corresponding rates also reduced for PWOE. New epilepsy diagnosis rates decreased during the pandemic compared with the prepandemic period (2.3/100 000/month cf. 3.1/100 000/month, RR = .73, 95% CI = .68-.78). Both all-cause deaths and deaths with epilepsy recorded on the death certificate increased for PWE during the pandemic (RR = 1.07, 95% CI = .997-1.145 and RR = 2.44, 95% CI = 2.12-2.81). When removing COVID deaths, RRs were .88 (95% CI = .81-.95) and 1.29 (95% CI = 1.08-1.53). Status epilepticus rates did not change significantly during the pandemic (RR = .95, 95% CI = .78-1.15).
CONCLUSIONS: All-cause non-COVID deaths did not increase but non-COVID deaths associated with epilepsy did increase for PWE during the COVID-19 pandemic. The longer term effects of the decrease in new epilepsy diagnoses and health care utilization and increase in deaths associated with epilepsy need further research.

BACKGROUND: Promoting integrated care is a key goal of the NHS Long Term Plan to improve population respiratory health, yet there is limited data-driven evidence of its effectiveness. The Morecambe Bay Respiratory Network is an integrated care initiative operating in the North-West of England since 2017. A key target area has been reducing referrals to outpatient respiratory clinics by upskilling primary care teams. This study aims to explore space-time patterns in referrals from general practice in the Morecambe Bay area to evaluate the impact of the initiative.
METHODS: Data on referrals to outpatient clinics and chronic respiratory disease patient counts between 2012-2020 were obtained from the Morecambe Bay Community Data Warehouse, a large store of routinely collected healthcare data. For analysis, the data is aggregated by year and small area geography. The methodology comprises of two parts. The first explores the issues that can arise when using routinely collected primary care data for space-time analysis and applies spatio-temporal conditional autoregressive modelling to adjust for data complexities. The second part models the rate of outpatient referral via a Poisson generalised linear mixed model that adjusts for changes in demographic factors and number of respiratory disease patients.
RESULTS: The first year of the Morecambe Bay Respiratory Network was not associated with a significant difference in referral rate. However, the second and third years saw significant reductions in areas that had received intervention, with full intervention associated with a 31.8% (95% CI 17.0-43.9) and 40.5% (95% CI 27.5-50.9) decrease in referral rate in 2018 and 2019, respectively.
CONCLUSIONS: Routinely collected data can be used to robustly evaluate key outcome measures of integrated care. The results demonstrate that effective integrated care has real potential to ease the burden on respiratory outpatient services by reducing the need for an onward referral. This is of great relevance given the current pressure on outpatient services globally, particularly long waiting lists following the COVID-19 pandemic and the need for more innovative models of care.

UNASSIGNED: China\'s National Essential Public Health Service Package (NEPHSP) aims to promote health for all at the primary health care level and includes a focus on hypertension and type-2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). However, there are limited contemporary data to quantify the care cascades of hypertension and T2DM in primary health care.
UNASSIGNED: This cross-sectional study involved individual level linkage of routinely collected data from the NEPHSP, health insurance claims and hospital electronic health records, from four diverse regions in China, including Xiling District (central China), Wenchuan County (western), Acheng District and Jiao District (northern). We first compared numbers of people aged ≥35 with a recorded diagnosis of hypertension and T2DM against expected numbers derived from epidemiological data. We then constructed care cascades to assess the percentages (1) enrolled in the NEPHSP, (2) adherent to the follow-up care of NEPHSP, (3) receiving medication treatment, and (4) having hypertension and/or T2DM controlled.
UNASSIGNED: In the four regions, the total numbers of people aged ≥35 diagnosed of hypertension and T2DM from any data source were 149,176 and 50,828, respectively. This was estimated to be 46.0% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 45.8%-46.2%) and 45.6% (95% CI: 45.3%-45.9%) of the expected totals for hypertension and T2DM, respectively. Among those diagnosed, 65.4% (95% CI: 65.1%-65.6%) with hypertension and 66.1% (95% CI: 65.7%-66.5%) with T2DM were enrolled in the NEPHSP, respectively, in which 54.8% (95% CI: 54.5%-55.2%) with hypertension and 64.7% (95% CI: 64.1%-65.2%) with T2DM were adherent to the required services. Among those enrolled, the overall treatment rates were 70.8% (95% CI: 70.6%-71.1%) for hypertension and 82.2% (95% CI: 81.8%-82.6%) for T2DM. Among those treated, a further 80.9% (95% CI: 80.6%-81.2%) with hypertension and 73.9% (95% CI: 73.3%-74.4%) with T2DM achieved control. These results varied considerably across regions, with the northern sites showing relatively higher enrolment rates while the central site had higher control rates.
UNASSIGNED: Detection and control rates for hypertension and T2DM are suboptimal in these four regions of China. Further strategies are needed to improve people\'s enrolment in and adherence to the NEPHSP and strengthen care delivery processes. Of note, our estimations of the diagnosis rates for each region are based on national level large epidemiological data. The interpretation of these data needs caution due to potential bias caused by regional variations.
UNASSIGNED: This study is funded by National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC) Global Alliance for Chronic Diseases funding (APP1169757), and National Natural Science Foundation of China (72074065).

OBJECTIVE: Primary Sjögren\'s syndrome (pSS) is a systemic autoimmune disease with significant impact on morbidity, mortality, and quality of life. This study aimed to evaluate epidemiology, healthcare needs and related costs of pSS patients from the Italian National Health Service perspective.
METHODS: From the Fondazione Ricerca e Salute\'s database (∼5 million inhabitants/year), pSS prevalence in 2018 was calculated. Demographics, mean healthcare consumptions and direct costs at one year following index date (first in-hospital diagnosis/disease waiver claim) were analysed through an individual direct matched pair case-control analysis (age, sex, residency).
RESULTS: In Italy, 3.8/10,000 inhabitants were identified as affected by pSS (1,746 case: 1,746 controls) in 2018. In the year following index date, 53.7% of cases and 42.7% of controls received ≥1 drug (p<0.001); mean per capita cost was €501 and €161, respectively (p<0.01). At least one hospitalization occurred to 7.8% of cases and 3.9% of controls (p<0.001) with mean per capita costs of €416 and €129, respectively (p = 0.46). At least one outpatient specialist service was performed in 49.8% of cases and 30.6% of controls (p<0.001); mean per capita costs were €200 and €75, respectively (p<0.01). Overall, mean annual costs were €1,171 per case and €372 per control (p < 0.01).
CONCLUSIONS: According to results of this population-based study, the prevalence of pSS in Italy appears to be consistent with the definition of rare disease. Patients with pSS have higher pharmacological, in-hospital and outpatient specialist care needs, leading to three-times higher overall cost for the INHS, compared to the general population.