Despite the importance of risk attitude in decision-making, its role in belief updating has been overlooked. Using economic theory, we analyzed a dual-self equilibrium where an individual first updates her belief about an uncertain state and then takes an action to maximize her payoff. We showed that stronger risk aversion drives more conservative actions and thus decreases the instrumental value of information relative to the importance of belief-based utility. As a result, the relationship between risk attitude and belief updating depends on the nature of the belief-based utility. With self-relevant information, stronger risk aversion leads to more belief change, whereas with self-irrelevant information, stronger risk aversion leads to less belief change. Our experimental results concur with the theoretical predictions with two settings where subjects update their belief about their IQ and a randomly drawn number, respectively. We discuss implications on persuasion, advertisements, and political campaigns.

Why is the empirical evidence for birth-order effects on human psychology so inconsistent? In contrast to the influential view that competitive dynamics among siblings permanently shape a person\'s personality, we find evidence that these effects are limited to the family environment. We tested this context-specific learning hypothesis in the domain of risk taking, using two large survey datasets from Germany (SOEP, n = 19,994) and the United States (NLSCYA, n = 29,627) to examine birth-order effects on risk-taking propensity across a wide age range. Specification-curve analyses of a sample of 49,621 observations showed that birth-order effects are prevalent in children aged 10-13 years, but that they decline with age and disappear by middle adulthood. The methodological approach shows the effect is robust. We thus replicate and extend previous work in which we showed no birth-order effects on adult risk taking. We conclude that family dynamics cause birth-order effects on risk taking but that these effects fade as siblings transition out of the home.

The continuing COVID-19 pandemic has prompted many people to receive the needed vaccines. However, how trust in vaccination affects the attitude and behavior of delegates attending a convention in Macau has yet to be determined. Accordingly, we applied quantitative method in conducting a survey involving 514 participants and analysed the data using AMOS and SPSS. The results showed that trust in vaccines has a significant impact on moderating the relationship between risk attitude and satisfaction. Trust in vaccines has a significant positive effect on involvement. Risk attitude negatively affects involvement, satisfaction, and loyalty. The major contribution of this research is the introduction of a model based on trust in vaccination. To boost delegates\' confidence to attend convention activities, governments and organizations should deliver accurate information on vaccines and pandemic risks, and that delegates should obtain accurate information about it. Lastly, unbiased and professional operators of the MICE industry also can offer precise COVID-19 vaccination information to reduce misperception and increase the security.

The acceleration of animal disease spread worldwide due to increased animal, feed, and human movement has driven a growing body of epidemiological research as well as a deeper interest in human behavioral studies aimed at understanding their interconnectedness. Biosecurity measures can reduce the risk of infection, but human risk tolerance can hinder biosecurity investments and compliance. Humans may learn from hardship and become more risk averse, but sometimes they instead become more risk tolerant because they forget negative experiences happened in the past or because they come to believe they are immune. We represent the complexity of the hog production system with disease threats, human decision making, and human risk attitude using an agent-based model. Our objective is to explore the role of risk tolerant behaviors and the consequences of delayed biosecurity investments. We set up experiment with Monte Carlo simulations of scenarios designed with different risk tolerance amongst the swine producers and we derive distributions and trends of biosecurity and porcine epidemic diarrhea virus (PEDv) incidence emerging in the system. The output data allowed us to examine interactions between modes of risk tolerance and timings of biosecurity response discussing consequences for disease protection in the production system. The results show that hasty and delayed biosecurity responses or slow shifts toward a biosecure culture do not guarantee control of contamination when the disease has already spread in the system. In an effort to support effective disease prevention, our model results can inform policy making to move toward more resilient and healthy production systems. The modeled dynamics of risk attitude have also the potential to improve communication strategies for nudging and establishing risk averse behaviors thereby equipping the production system in case of foreign disease incursions.

This study based on the cognitive-experiential self-theory, with risk attitude as the mediator and livelihood capacity as the moderator, explores the mechanism of the effect of risk perception of COVID-19 on minority ethnic community tourism practitioners\' willingness to change livelihood strategies. Taking 423 tourism practitioners from five minority ethnic tourism communities as the objects of investigation in Gansu Province, China. This paper empirically tests the theoretical model by using Amos and SPSS. The results indicated the following: Risk perception of COVID-19 has a significant positive impact on the willingness of minority ethnic community tourism practitioners to change their livelihood strategies. Risk attitude partially mediated the relationship between risk perception of COVID-19 and willingness to change livelihood strategies. Livelihood capacity negatively moderated the relationship between risk perception of COVID-19 and willingness of minority ethnic community tourism practitioners to change their livelihood strategies. Livelihood capacity also negatively moderated the mediation effect of the relationship between risk perception of COVID-19 and willingness to change livelihood strategies. Based on the research conclusions, it provides theoretical guidance and practical enlightenment for minority ethnic community tourism practitioners on how to improve the stability and sustainability of their livelihoods through the adjustment and transformation of livelihood strategies in the post-epidemic era.

This study investigates whether decision-making under uncertainty is influenced by the cardiac cycle. To test this hypothesis, we examined the influence of the cardiac cycle on an individual\'s decision-making process in a gambling experiment. Participants were asked to choose one option with a sure payout or uncertain option with varying degrees of winning probability, ambiguity, and monetary amounts. The onset of presentation of the options is timed to coincide with either cardiac ventricular systole or diastole. The results show that, for most participants, the risk aversion score was lower in the systole trial than in the diastole trial. Model-based exploratory analysis revealed that the higher propensity to take risks in the systole trial compared with that in the diastole trial could be captured better by the change in the gambling bias against the utility of the risky options, rather than by a change in risk attitude. The results provide evidence that the natural fluctuation of cardiac afferent signals can affect risky decision-making.

While a growing number of farmers migrate to urban sectors to engage in off-farm employment, little is known whether and how the migration working experience (MWE) changes farmers, especially their social capital. Using a survey data set with 2863 farm households in 14 provinces in China, we developed a mediation model to examine the impact of MWE on social capital, as well as the roles of household income, farmers\' risk attitude, and information and communications technologies (ICTs). We show that MWE has a significantly positive impact on social capital and weak ties in social capital, which is mediated by household income, risk attitude, and ICT adoption. In particular, MWE can increase income, enhance risk preference, and promote ICT adoption, thus, leading to higher social capital. Moreover, ICTs play a moderating role in the impact of MWE on income and risk preference, that is, ICTs can decrease the impact of MWE on income, and completely substitute the impact of MWE on risk attitude. Our study provides an explanation for the reason why farmers are willing to migrate despite unfavorable working conditions they may endure in urban areas.

Promoting prevention is an important goal of public policy. Fifty years ago, Ehrlich and Becker (J Polit Econ 80:623-648, 1972) proposed a simple model of prevention (or self-protection as they called it). Surprisingly enough, subsequent research, mainly within the expected utility paradigm, showed that it is hard to derive clear predictions within this simple model that can help to guide policy. This is what I refer to as the prevention puzzle: why is it so hard for economic theory to guide prevention decisions? In this article I try to shed light on this question. I review the existing literature and add some tentative new results under nonexpected utility. While the impact of risk aversion on prevention is complex, three factors seem to contribute unambiguously to underprevention: prudence, likelihood insensitivity, and loss aversion. I conclude by giving some ideas how empirical research may contribute to the understanding of prevention decisions and help to solve the prevention puzzle.

Decisions about health often involve risk, and different decision makers interpret and value risk information differently. Furthermore, an individual\'s attitude toward health-specific risks can contribute to variation in health preferences and behavior. This study aimed to determine whether and how health-risk attitude and heterogeneity of health preferences are related.
To study the association between health-risk attitude and preference heterogeneity, we selected 3 discrete choice experiment case studies in the health domain that included risk attributes and accounted for preference heterogeneity. Health-risk attitude was measured using the 13-item Health-Risk Attitude Scale (HRAS-13). We analyzed 2 types of heterogeneity via panel latent class analyses, namely, how health-risk attitude relates to (1) stochastic class allocation and (2) systematic preference heterogeneity.
Our study did not find evidence that health-risk attitude as measured by the HRAS-13 distinguishes people between classes. Nevertheless, we did find evidence that the HRAS-13 can distinguish people\'s preferences for risk attributes within classes. This phenomenon was more pronounced in the patient samples than in the general population sample. Moreover, we found that numeracy and health literacy did distinguish people between classes.
Modeling health-risk attitude as an individual characteristic underlying preference heterogeneity has the potential to improve model fit and model interpretations. Nevertheless, the results of this study highlight the need for further research into the association between health-risk attitude and preference heterogeneity beyond class membership, a different measure of health-risk attitude, and the communication of risks.

This study investigated young millennials\' risk perception, benefit perception, and purchase intention toward GM foods by testing the effects of source credibility and risk attitude. By comparing two samples collected in the U.S. (N = 207) and China (N = 242), we found that source credibility positively influenced benefit perceptions of GM foods among Chinese millennial consumers. Results also revealed risk attitude significantly influenced both American and Chinese millennial consumers\' intention to purchase GM foods. Furthermore, a significant interaction effect between source credibility and risk attitude was found on Chinese millennial consumers\' risk perception of GM foods.