risk analysis

风险分析
  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    确保食品安全,特别是对于弱势群体,像婴儿和幼儿,需要识别和优先考虑食物链中的潜在危害。我们之前开发了一个基于网络的决策支持系统(DSS),通过结构化的五步过程来识别婴幼儿食品中的特定微生物危害(MHs)。本研究通过引入系统风险排名(RR)步骤,以七个标准对MH风险进行排名来进一步框架:过程生存,再污染,增长机会,膳食准备,危害食品协会证据,欧盟婴幼儿的食物消费习惯,和MH严重性。每个标准都给出了半定量或定量的评分或风险值,通过三种汇总方法为最终的MH风险计算做出贡献:半定量风险评分,半定量风险值,超越多准则决策分析(MCDA)。为了验证标准和排名方法,我们进行了一项案例研究,对婴儿配方奶粉中的MH风险进行排名,比较了三种风险排序方法的结果,并根据专家意见对排名结果进行了额外评估,以确保其准确性。结果表明,三种方法具有很强的一致性,持续排名非伤寒沙门氏菌和克罗恩杆菌属。和产志贺毒素的大肠杆菌是婴儿配方食品中最大的MH风险,微小的偏差。当MHs在初始危险识别步骤之后进行排序时,这三种方法都产生了几乎相同的MH排名,加强排名步骤和选定标准的可靠性。值得注意的是,与风险评分方法相比,风险值和MCDA方法提供了更多信息的MH排名.将风险值和风险评分方法实施到在线工具中,称为微生物危害风险调查决策支持系统(Mira-DSS),可在https://foodmicrologywur上获得。shinyapps.io/微生物_危害_RAnking/。总之,我们的框架可以对MH风险进行排名,促进干预比较和资源分配,以减轻婴儿食品中的MH风险,具有对更广泛食品类别的潜在适用性。
    Ensuring food safety, particularly for vulnerable groups, like infants and young children, requires identifying and prioritizing potential hazards in food chains. We previously developed a web-based decision support system (DSS) to identify specific microbiological hazards (MHs) in infant and toddler foods through a structured five-step process. This study takes the framework further by introducing systematic risk ranking (RR) steps to rank MH risks with seven criteria: process survival, recontamination, growth opportunity, meal preparation, hazard-food association evidence, food consumption habits of infants and toddlers in the EU, and MH severity. Each criterion is given a semi-quantitative or quantitative score or risk value, contributing to the final MH risk calculation via three aggregation methods: semi-quantitative risk scoring, semi-quantitative risk value, and outranking multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA). To validate the criteria and ranking approaches, we conducted a case study to rank MH risks in infant formula, compared the results of the three risk ranking methods, and additionally evaluated the ranking results against expert opinions to ensure their accuracy. The results showed strong agreement among the three methods, consistently ranking Salmonella non-Typhi and Cronobacter spp. and Shiga-toxin-producing Escherichia coli as the top MH risks in infant formulae, with minor deviations. When MHs were ranked after an initial hazard identification step, all three methods produced nearly identical MH rankings, reinforcing the reliability of the ranking steps and the selected criteria. Notably, the risk value and MCDA methods provided more informative MH rankings compared to the risk scoring method. The risk value and risk scoring methods were implemented into an online tool, called the MIcrobiological hazards risk RAnking decision support system (Mira-DSS), available at https://foodmicrobiologywur.shinyapps.io/MIcrobial_hazards_RAnking/. In conclusion, our framework enables the ranking of MH risks, facilitating intervention comparisons and resource allocations to mitigate MH risks in infant foods, with potential applicability to broader food categories.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    每个工作环境都包含不同类型的风险以及风险之间的相互作用。因此,进行风险评估时使用的方法非常重要。在确定使用哪种风险评估方法(RAM)时,有许多因素,例如工作环境中的风险类型,这些风险之间的相互作用,以及他们与员工的距离。虽然有许多RAM可用,没有适合所有工作场所的RAM,选择哪种方法是最大的问题。在这个问题上没有国际公认的规模或趋势。在研究中,26个部门,确定了10种不同的RAM和10种标准。设计了一种混合方法,通过使用k均值聚类和支持向量机(SVM)分类算法来确定最适合扇区的RAM,这是机器学习(ML)算法。首先,使用k-means算法将数据集划分为子集。然后,SVM算法在具有不同特征的所有子集上运行。最后,将所有子集的结果合并,得到整个数据集的结果。因此,而不是为影响整个集群的单个和大型集群确定的阈值,并且对所有集群都是强制性的,通过根据每个子集群的特征为其确定单独的阈值来创建灵活的结构.这样,通过为部门选择最合适的RAM,并从人力中消除选择阶段的行政和软件问题,提供了机器支持。该方法的第一个比较结果是混合方法:96.63%,k-means:90.63和SVM:94.68%。在与五种不同的ML算法进行的第二次比较中,人工神经网络(ANN)的结果:87.44%,天真贝叶斯(NB):91.29%,决策树(DT):89.25%,随机森林(RF):81.23%,k近邻(KNN):85.43%。
    Every work environment contains different types of risks and interactions between risks. Therefore, the method to be used when making a risk assessment is very important. When determining which risk assessment method (RAM) to use, there are many factors such as the types of risks in the work environment, the interactions of these risks with each other, and their distance from the employees. Although there are many RAMs available, there is no RAM that will suit all workplaces and which method to choose is the biggest question. There is no internationally accepted scale or trend on this subject. In the study, 26 sectors, 10 different RAMs and 10 criteria were determined. A hybrid approach has been designed to determine the most suitable RAMs for sectors by using k-means clustering and support vector machine (SVM) classification algorithms, which are machine learning (ML) algorithms. First, the data set was divided into subsets with the k-means algorithm. Then, the SVM algorithm was run on all subsets with different characteristics. Finally, the results of all subsets were combined to obtain the result of the entire dataset. Thus, instead of the threshold value determined for a single and large cluster affecting the entire cluster and being made mandatory for all of them, a flexible structure was created by determining separate threshold values for each sub-cluster according to their characteristics. In this way, machine support was provided by selecting the most suitable RAMs for the sectors and eliminating the administrative and software problems in the selection phase from the manpower. The first comparison result of the proposed method was found to be the hybrid method: 96.63%, k-means: 90.63 and SVM: 94.68%. In the second comparison made with five different ML algorithms, the results of the artificial neural networks (ANN): 87.44%, naive bayes (NB): 91.29%, decision trees (DT): 89.25%, random forest (RF): 81.23% and k-nearest neighbours (KNN): 85.43% were found.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    这项研究的目的是评估与氟喹诺酮类药物(FQs)相关的精神不良事件(AE)的药物警戒和临床特征,并确定风险因素进行及时管理。
    有关AE报告的数据来自FDA不良事件报告系统(FAERS)数据库,用于药物警戒评估。此外,我们还回顾性分析了与FQs相关的精神病性AE病例.
    FAERS数据库分析和文献报告均显示,女性中报告的FQs相关精神不良事件的比例较高(51.11%VS33.44%和53.23%VS46.77%)。两者均显示,19-44岁年龄组(28.08%和40.32%)和45-64岁年龄组(28.17%和25.81%)中,由FQ引起的精神不良事件的比例较高。大多数精神病性AE发生在FQs给药后10天内。文献显示,67.74%的精神病性AE在停药后3天内消失(部分病例伴有其他药物)。
    由FQ引起的精神不良事件是严重的,并且有许多重要的安全信号在标签或以前的研究中没有提到。及时识别和管理精神不良事件对于FQ的安全使用非常重要。
    UNASSIGNED: The purpose of this study was to evaluate the pharmacovigilance and clinical characteristics of psychiatric adverse events(AEs) related to Fluoroquinolones(FQs), and to determine the risk factors for timely management.
    UNASSIGNED: Data about AE reporting comes from the FDA Adverse Event Reporting System (FAERS) database, which was used for pharmacovigilance assessments. In addition, we also analyzed the cases of psychiatric AEs related to FQs retrospectively.
    UNASSIGNED: Both of the FAERS database analysis and literature reports show that the proportion of FQs-related psychiatric AEs reported in females were higher (51.11% VS 33.44% and 53.23% VS 46.77%). Both of them show that the proportion of psychiatric AEs caused by FQs was higher in the age groups of 19-44 (28.08% and 40.32%) and 45-64 (28.17% and 25.81%). Most psychiatric AEs occurred within 10 days after FQs administration. Literature shows that 67.74% of the psychiatric AEs disappeared within 3 days after drug withdrawal (some cases were accompanied by other drug).
    UNASSIGNED: Psychiatric AEs caused by FQs are serious, and there are many important safety signals that have not been mentioned in the label or previous studies. It is very important to identify and manage psychiatric AEs in time for the safe use of FQs.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    采矿是最危险和最危险的行业之一。不能忽视工伤事故所造成的生命和物质损失,这发生在采矿领域。风险分析从风险评估开始,以确定工作场所危害的概率和严重程度。必须根据风险评分水平通过预防措施控制危险。在这项研究中,采用故障树分析方法对煤矿井下自燃危险性进行分析,并对未来的危险性进行预测。定义了最高事件的三个主要原因,对于每个原因,使用故障树分析计算风险评分。最后,自燃的原因,这是煤矿经常遇到的事件,进行了讨论,在空气进入采空区和未能防止开发漂移中的煤与空气接触的情况下,自燃风险概率计算为0.3012。作为研究的结果,自燃的根本原因,全球地下煤矿开采中最大的危害,已经详细检查过了。该研究引入的创新方法旨在通过详细的评估,提高对导致行业工人和工程师自燃条件的认识和认识。通过这样做,它旨在最大程度地减少自燃事故的发生。•本文介绍了防止自燃的主要流程图和对策算法。•本文还分析了触发自燃的事件以及针对该事件的预防措施。
    Mining is one of the most risky and dangerous sectors. It is impossible to ignore the losses of life and material experienced by occupational accidents, which take place in the field of mining. Risk analysis begins with a risk assessment to identify the probability and severity of workplace hazards. Hazards must be controlled by precautions according to the risk score levels. In this study, a fault tree analysis method was conducted to analyze spontaneous combustion hazards and to predict future risks in underground coal mines. Three main causes of the top event were defined and for each of these causes, risk scores were computed using a fault tree analysis. Finally, the causes of spontaneous combustion, which is an event that is frequently encountered in coal mines, were discussed, and the spontaneous combustion risk probability was calculated as 0.3012 in cases of air entry into the gob and failure to prevent coal-air contact in development drifts. As a result of the study, the fundamental causes of spontaneous combustion, the greatest hazard in underground coal mining worldwide, have been examined in detail. The innovative approach introduced by the study aims to increase the awareness and recognition of conditions that lead to spontaneous combustion among industry workers and engineers through detailed evaluation. By doing so, it seeks to minimize the occurrence of spontaneous combustion incidents.•This paper introduces a main flowchart and countermeasure algorithm to prevent spontaneous combustion.•This paper also analyzes events which trigger spontaneous combustion and mentioned preventive measures for this events.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    一个健康方法的应用认识到人类健康,动物健康,植物健康与生态系统健康有着内在的联系。应对与食源性人畜共患病相关的复杂挑战,抗菌素耐药性,新出现的威胁势在必行。因此,“一个健康”欧洲联合计划是在欧洲联盟研究计划“地平线2020”中建立的。“一个健康”欧洲联合方案的活动以欧洲联盟(欧盟)基于“一个健康”科学的框架的发展和协调为基础,涉及公共卫生,来自几乎所有欧盟成员国的动物卫生和食品安全机构,英国和挪威,从而加强公众之间的合作,欧洲的医疗和兽医组织。活动包括24个联合研究项目,6个联合综合项目和17个博士项目,多国模拟活动促进了实验室方法和监测的协调,和改进的风险评估工具。提供可持续解决方案是“一个健康”方法的组成部分。为了确保“一个健康”欧洲联合计划的工作遗产,重点是战略沟通和传播产出,以及利益攸关方在国家、欧洲和国际水平。
    The application of a One Health approach recognizes that human health, animal health, plant health and ecosystem health are intrinsically connected. Tackling complex challenges associated with foodborne zoonoses, antimicrobial resistance, and emerging threats is imperative. Therefore, the One Health European Joint Programme was established within the European Union research programme Horizon 2020. The One Health European Joint Programme activities were based on the development and harmonization of a One Health science-based framework in the European Union (EU) and involved public health, animal health and food safety institutes from almost all EU Member States, the UK and Norway, thus strengthening the cooperation between public, medical and veterinary organizations in Europe. Activities including 24 joint research projects, 6 joint integrative projects and 17 PhD projects, and a multicountry simulation exercise facilitated harmonization of laboratory methods and surveillance, and improved tools for risk assessment. The provision of sustainable solutions is integral to a One Health approach. To ensure the legacy of the work of the One Health European Joint Programme, focus was on strategic communication and dissemination of the outputs and engagement of stakeholders at the national, European and international levels.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    面对攻击的持续风险,安全系统通过分配安全措施采取了目标强化策略。以前有关防御性资源分配的大多数工作都将安全系统视为整体体系结构。然而,学校等系统通常具有多层特征,其中每一层相互连接,以帮助防止单点故障。在本文中,我们研究了多层系统中的防御性资源分配问题。我们开发了两种新的资源配置模型,考虑了概率风险和战略风险,并提供分析解决方案和说明性示例。我们使用学校枪击事件的真实数据来说明模型的性能,其中给出了最优投资策略和敏感性分析。我们表明,面对概率风险,防御者将投入更多的资金来防御外层而不是内层。在应对战略风险的同时,防御者会在每一层中拆分资源,以使攻击者在任何单独的层之间感到无动于衷。本文为分层系统中的资源分配提供了新的见解,以更好地增强系统的整体安全性。
    Confronting the continuing risk of an attack, security systems have adopted target-hardening strategies through the allocation of security measures. Most previous work on defensive resource allocation considers the security system as a monolithic architecture. However, systems such as schools are typically characterized by multiple layers, where each layer is interconnected to help prevent single points of failure. In this paper, we study the defensive resource allocation problem in a multilayered system. We develop two new resource allocation models accounting for probabilistic and strategic risks, and provide analytical solutions and illustrative examples. We use real data for school shootings to illustrate the performance of the models, where the optimal investment strategies and sensitivity analysis are presented. We show that the defender would invest more in defending outer layers over inner layers in the face of probabilistic risks. While countering strategic risks, the defender would split resources in each layer to make the attacker feel indifferent between any individual layer. This paper provides new insights on resource allocation in layered systems to better enhance the overall security of the system.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    绝对风险模型估计个人在指定时间间隔内的未来疾病风险。利用服务器端风险工具的应用程序,基于R的iCARE(R-iCARE),建造,验证,并应用绝对风险模型,由于需要在远程服务器中循环用户数据以进行操作,因此面临便携性和隐私性方面的限制。我们通过将iCARE移植到Web平台来克服这一点。
    我们将R-iCARE重构为Python包(Py-iCARE),然后将其编译为WebAssembly(Wasm-iCARE)-一个便携式Web模块,它在用户设备的隐私范围内运行。
    我们通过2个应用程序展示了Wasm-iCARE的可移植性和隐私性:让研究人员对风险模型进行统计验证并将其交付给最终用户。这两个应用程序完全在客户端运行,不需要下载或安装,并在风险计算期间将用户数据保存在设备上。
    Wasm-iCARE促进可访问和保护隐私的风险工具,加速他们的验证和交付。
    UNASSIGNED: Absolute risk models estimate an individual\'s future disease risk over a specified time interval. Applications utilizing server-side risk tooling, the R-based iCARE (R-iCARE), to build, validate, and apply absolute risk models, face limitations in portability and privacy due to their need for circulating user data in remote servers for operation. We overcome this by porting iCARE to the web platform.
    UNASSIGNED: We refactored R-iCARE into a Python package (Py-iCARE) and then compiled it to WebAssembly (Wasm-iCARE)-a portable web module, which operates within the privacy of the user\'s device.
    UNASSIGNED: We showcase the portability and privacy of Wasm-iCARE through 2 applications: for researchers to statistically validate risk models and to deliver them to end-users. Both applications run entirely on the client side, requiring no downloads or installations, and keep user data on-device during risk calculation.
    UNASSIGNED: Wasm-iCARE fosters accessible and privacy-preserving risk tools, accelerating their validation and delivery.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    悬浮湿介质研磨制造过程是一个复杂的多单元操作,导致药物粉碎至目标粒径。由于这种复杂性,微生物污染是最重要的问题,特别是用于肠胃外使用的悬浮液。这种观点试图使用质量风险管理方法来审查(4)关键制造单元操作的影响,以更好地识别和阐明每个单元操作对生物负载生存能力的影响。范围内的制造单元操作包括浆料复合,脱气,铣削,和填充。领结风险分析被用作视觉差距分析工具,以评估常规对照是否适合检测和减轻微生物污染的可能性。对这些单元操作的深入研究阐明了涡轮低生等机制,脱气过程中的空化,高能铣削,和惰性覆盖可能对生物负载活力和增殖有明显的影响。结果分析还表明,内毒素监督必须通过屏障密切监测(输入材料控制,水质控制),以最大程度地减少对产品和患者的影响。确定的制造单元操作不适合作为内毒素的缓解控制。本文的输出涉及湿介质研磨过程中微生物污染的风险交叉点,并提供了干预关键领域的见解。
    The suspension wet media milling manufacturing process is a complex multi-unit operation, resulting in drug substance comminution to a target particle size. As a result of this complexity, microbial contamination is of paramount concern, particularly for suspensions dosed for parenteral use. This perspective sought to review the influence of (4) critical manufacturing unit operations using a quality risk management approach to better identify and articulate impact of each unit operation on bioburden viability. The manufacturing unit operations in scope included slurry compounding, deaeration, milling, and filling. Bow tie risk analysis was used as a visual gap analysis tool to evaluate if conventional controls were appropriate to detect and mitigate potential for microbial contamination. A deep dive into these unit operations clarified that mechanisms such as turbohypobiosis, cavitation during deaeration, high energy milling, and inert overlay may have an appreciable influence on bioburden viability and proliferation. The resultant analysis also explicated that endotoxin oversight must be closely monitored through barriers (input material controls, water quality controls) to minimize impact to the product and patient. The identified manufacturing unit operations were not appropriate as mitigating controls for endotoxin. The output of this article relates risk intersections for microbial contamination during wet media milling and offers insights in critical areas for intervention.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    背景:缺血性卒中的病因是多因素的。几种基因突变已被确定为伴有皮质下梗死和白质脑病(CADASIL)的常染色体显性遗传性脑动脉病的主要原因。引起中风和其他神经症状的遗传性疾病。
    目的:我们旨在鉴定NOTCH3和血栓形成倾向基因的变体,以及它们与其他因素的复杂相互作用。
    方法:我们对100例诊断为缺血性中风的患者的数据进行了层次聚类分析(HCA)。通过聚合酶链反应与面对的2对引物和实时聚合酶链反应鉴定NOTCH3和血栓形成倾向基因的变体。总体临床前特征,累积切割点值,并在一维和多维缩放模型中分析了与这些体细胞突变相关的因素。
    结果:我们确定了以下最佳切点:肌酐,83.67(SD9.19)µmol/L;年龄,54(SD5)年;凝血酶原(PT)时间,13.25(SD0.17)秒;和国际标准化比率(INR),1.02(标准差0.03)。使用Nagelkerke方法,入院时格拉斯哥昏迷量表评分的50%值;改良的Rankin量表评分;和美国国立卫生研究院卒中量表评分,24小时后,出院时分别为12.77、2.86(SD1.21),9.83(标准差2.85),7.29(标准差2.04),和6.85(标准差2.90),分别。
    结论:MTHFR(C677T和A1298C)和NOTCH3p.R544C的变体可能会在PT的特定条件下影响中风的严重程度,肌酐,INR,BMI,风险比为4.8(95%CI1.53-15.04)和3.13(95%CI1.60-6.11),分别(Pfisher<.05)。有趣的是,尽管有许多基因与房颤风险增加有关,并非所有这些都与缺血性卒中风险相关。随着中风风险位点的检测,可以获得更多关于它们的影响和相互联系的信息,尤其是年轻患者。
    BACKGROUND: The etiology of ischemic stroke is multifactorial. Several gene mutations have been identified as leading causes of cerebral autosomal dominant arteriopathy with subcortical infarcts and leukoencephalopathy (CADASIL), a hereditary disease that causes stroke and other neurological symptoms.
    OBJECTIVE: We aimed to identify the variants of NOTCH3 and thrombophilia genes, and their complex interactions with other factors.
    METHODS: We conducted a hierarchical cluster analysis (HCA) on the data of 100 patients diagnosed with ischemic stroke. The variants of NOTCH3 and thrombophilia genes were identified by polymerase chain reaction with confronting 2-pair primers and real-time polymerase chain reaction. The overall preclinical characteristics, cumulative cutpoint values, and factors associated with these somatic mutations were analyzed in unidimensional and multidimensional scaling models.
    RESULTS: We identified the following optimal cutpoints: creatinine, 83.67 (SD 9.19) µmol/L; age, 54 (SD 5) years; prothrombin (PT) time, 13.25 (SD 0.17) seconds; and international normalized ratio (INR), 1.02 (SD 0.03). Using the Nagelkerke method, cutpoint 50% values of the Glasgow Coma Scale score; modified Rankin scale score; and National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale scores at admission, after 24 hours, and at discharge were 12.77, 2.86 (SD 1.21), 9.83 (SD 2.85), 7.29 (SD 2.04), and 6.85 (SD 2.90), respectively.
    CONCLUSIONS: The variants of MTHFR (C677T and A1298C) and NOTCH3 p.R544C may influence the stroke severity under specific conditions of PT, creatinine, INR, and BMI, with risk ratios of 4.8 (95% CI 1.53-15.04) and 3.13 (95% CI 1.60-6.11), respectively (Pfisher<.05). It is interesting that although there are many genes linked to increased atrial fibrillation risk, not all of them are associated with ischemic stroke risk. With the detection of stroke risk loci, more information can be gained on their impacts and interconnections, especially in young patients.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    全球流行病限制了长途交通和国际贸易。为了恢复空中交通,在最近的COVID-19大流行期间实施了一项名为“旅行泡沫”的政策,通过允许不受限制的旅客旅行而无需在抵达时进行强制隔离,寻求在特定国家之间重新建立空中联系。然而,出于安全原因,旅行气泡容易破裂,以及如何通过旅行泡沫制定有效的恢复计划正在探索中。因此,向COVID-19学习,并制定一个正式的框架,为未来的突发公共卫生事件实施旅行泡沫疗法至关重要。本文从网络设计的角度对空气旅行气泡问题进行了分析研究。首先,建立了一个基于链路的网络设计问题,目的是将航空旅行期间的总感染风险降至最低。然后,基于起点-目的地对和国际候选链接之间的关系,该模型被重构为基于路径的模型。提出了基于拉格朗日松弛的解决方案框架,以确定最佳的恢复国际航线并分配交通流量。最后,在假设的数据和现实世界的情况下进行计算实验,以检查算法的性能。结果表明了所提模型和算法的有效性和高效性。此外,与基准策略相比,研究发现,在拟议的旅行泡沫策略下,感染风险可降低高达45.2%。更重要的是,这项工作为政策制定者和航空运营监管机构提供了有关制定大流行引起的航空运输恢复计划的实用见解。
    Global pandemics restrict long-haul mobility and international trade. To restore air traffic, a policy named \"travel bubble\" was implemented during the recent COVID-19 pandemic, which seeks to re-establish air connections among specific countries by permitting unrestricted passenger travel without mandatory quarantine upon arrival. However, travel bubbles are prone to bursting for safety reasons, and how to develop an effective restoration plan through travel bubbles is under-explored. Thus, it is vital to learn from COVID-19 and develop a formal framework for implementing travel bubble therapy for future public health emergencies. This article conducts an analytical investigation of the air travel bubble problem from a network design standpoint. First, a link-based network design problem is established with the goal of minimizing the total infection risk during air travel. Then, based on the relationship between origin-destination pairs and international candidate links, the model is reformulated into a path-based one. A Lagrangian relaxation-based solution framework is proposed to determine the optimal restored international air routes and assign the traffic flow. Finally, computational experiments on both hypothetical data and real-world cases are conducted to examine the algorithm\'s performance. The results demonstrate the effectiveness and efficiency of the proposed model and algorithm. In addition, compared to a benchmark strategy, it is found that the infection risk under the proposed travel bubble strategy can be reduced by up to 45.2%. More importantly, this work provides practical insights into developing pandemic-induced air transport recovery schemes for both policymakers and aviation operations regulators.
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