本文提出了对个体寿命不确定性的评估。对3,331名法国人进行的一项调查使我们能够记录每个人的几个生存概率。在此基础上,我们计算主观预期寿命(SLE)和主观寿命不确定性(SUL),每个人对自己寿命的主观分布的标准偏差。对于男性和女性来说,它很大,超过10年。它的大小与在寿命表中观察到的60岁以下个体的寿命变异性相当,但对于60岁以上的个体,它较小,这表明年龄较大的受访者使用私人信息。我们的计量经济学分析证实,个人使用私人信息-主要是他们的父母的生存和寿命-来调整他们的不确定性水平。最后,我们发现SUL有相当大的影响,除了SLE,关于危险行为:寿命的不确定性会显著降低不健康生活方式的可能性。鉴于个人对寿命的不确定性会影响预防行为,退休决定,以及对长期护理保险的需求,这些结果对有关医疗保健和退休的公共政策具有重要意义.
This article presents an assessment of individual uncertainty about longevity. A survey performed on 3,331 French people enables us to record several survival probabilities per individual. On this basis, we compute subjective life expectancies (SLE) and subjective uncertainty regarding longevity (SUL), the standard deviation of each individual\'s subjective distribution of her or his own longevity. It is large and equal to more than 10 years for men and women. Its magnitude is comparable to the variability of longevity observed in life tables for individuals under 60, but it is smaller for those older than 60, which suggests use of private information by older respondents. Our econometric analysis confirms that individuals use private information-mainly their parents\' survival and longevity-to adjust their level of uncertainty. Finally, we find that SUL has a sizable impact, in addition to SLE, on risky behaviors: more uncertainty on longevity significantly decreases the probability of unhealthy lifestyles. Given that individual uncertainty about longevity affects prevention behavior, retirement decisions, and demand for long-term care insurance, these results have important implications for public policy concerning health care and retirement.