rejection odds

  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    本文从贝叶斯导向的角度回顾了最近的贡献,在ASA关于p值的声明(2016)之后。我们对(i)补充p值的提议进行分类;(ii)修改p值本身。在第一组中,我们回顾了贝叶斯因子,假阳性风险,马修斯和赫德的观点的拒绝几率和可信度分析。我们还提出并讨论了一个新的可信度指标,我们对此进行了划界模拟研究。在第二组中,我们讨论了基于Bayes因子和第二代p值的Gannon对p值的修正。通过两个关于传染病药物治疗的案例研究来说明该理论。当代作者仍然将p值称为统计指标,但放弃了用固定阈值评估p值的观点。全世界的统计社会应以新战略为目标,在所有知识应用领域传播关于p值的辩论,以及它们可能促进使用不同的统计程序来补充p值。
    This paper reviews recent contributions from a Bayesian-oriented perspective, after the ASA statement on p-values (2016). We classify proposals that (i) supplement the p-value; (ii) modify the p-value itself. In the first group, we review the Bayes factor, the False Positive risk, the rejection odds and the analysis of credibility from both Matthews\' and Held\'s point of view. We also put forth and discuss a new index of credibility, about which we conduct a delimited simulation study. In the second group, we discuss Gannon\'s modification of the p-value based on the Bayes factor and the second-generation p-value. The theory is illustrated with two case studies on pharmacotherapy in infectious diseases. Contemporary authors still refer to the p-value as a statistical indicator but have abandoned the perspective of evaluating p-values with fixed thresholds. Statistical societies worldwide should target new strategies to disseminate the debate on p-values in all applied fields of knowledge, as well as they may promote the use of different statistical procedures to supplement p-values.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    The p-value is a classical proposal of statistical inference, dating back to the seminal contributions by Fisher, Neyman and E. Pearson. However, p-values have been frequently misunderstood and misused in practice, and medical research is not an exception. In recent years, in several statistical and applied journals, a debate erupted about the need of clear guidelines in reporting p-values, which culminated with the publication of the ASA statement in 2016. In this paper, we assess strengths and limitations of p-values and we assert that in applied research the p-value should be supplemented by other measures, such as the Bayes factor, the Bayes false discovery rate and the local Bayes false discovery rate. We also review a recent proposal by Bayarri et al. from a Bayesian perspective that has the advantage of introducing an indicator, the rejection odds, which keeps into account both pre- and post-experimental information, and could also have a straightforward frequentist interpretation. We conduct a delimited numerical study that investigates on the relation of the Bayes factor with its maximum, and of the local Bayes false discovery rate with its minimum under different distributional assumptions and parameter choices. We illustrate the concepts expressed in theory with an example in clinical oncology, namely a randomized trial on the effectiveness of a new chemotherapy for patients with AIDS and Kaposi\'s sarcoma.
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