random forest

随机森林
  • 文章类型: Published Erratum
    [这更正了文章DOI:10.3389/fgene.2024.1371607。].
    [This corrects the article DOI: 10.3389/fgene.2024.1371607.].
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    背景:登革热(DF)已成为中国重要的公共卫生问题。时空模式和影响其传播的潜在因素,然而,仍然难以捉摸。本研究旨在确定驱动这些变化的因素,并评估中国DF流行的城市风险。
    方法:我们分析了频率,强度,2003年至2022年中国DF病例分布,并评估了11个自然和社会经济因素作为潜在驱动因素。使用随机森林(RF)模型,我们评估了这些因素对当地DF流行的贡献,并预测了相应的城市风险.
    结果:2003年至2022年,本地和输入性DF流行病例数(r=0.41,P<0.01)和受影响城市(r=0.79,P<0.01)之间存在显着相关性。随着输入性疫情发生频率和强度的增加,当地的流行病变得更加严重。它们的发生率从每年5个月增加到8个月,案件数量每月从14到6641。城市级DF流行病的空间分布与Huhuanyong线(Hu线)和秦山淮河线(Q-H线)定义的地理分区一致,并且与蚊媒活动(83.59%)或DF传播(95.74%)的城市级时间窗口非常匹配。当考虑时间窗时,RF模型实现了高性能(AUC=0.92)。重要的是,他们将输入病例确定为主要影响因素,在湖线东部地区(E-H地区)的城市层面上,对当地DF流行的贡献显着(24.82%)。此外,发现进口病例对当地流行病有线性促进作用,而五个气候因素和六个社会经济因素表现出非线性效应(促进或抑制),具有不同的拐点值。此外,该模型在预测中国地方流行病的城市级风险方面表现出出色的准确性(命中率=95.56%)。
    结论:由于输入性DF流行的频率和强度不可避免地较高,中国正在经历零星的局部DF流行的增加。这项研究为卫生当局加强对这种疾病的干预能力提供了有价值的见解。
    BACKGROUND: Dengue fever (DF) has emerged as a significant public health concern in China. The spatiotemporal patterns and underlying influencing its spread, however, remain elusive. This study aims to identify the factors driving these variations and to assess the city-level risk of DF epidemics in China.
    METHODS: We analyzed the frequency, intensity, and distribution of DF cases in China from 2003 to 2022 and evaluated 11 natural and socioeconomic factors as potential drivers. Using the random forest (RF) model, we assessed the contributions of these factors to local DF epidemics and predicted the corresponding city-level risk.
    RESULTS: Between 2003 and 2022, there was a notable correlation between local and imported DF epidemics in case numbers (r = 0.41, P < 0.01) and affected cities (r = 0.79, P < 0.01). With the increase in the frequency and intensity of imported epidemics, local epidemics have become more severe. Their occurrence has increased from five to eight months per year, with case numbers spanning from 14 to 6641 per month. The spatial distribution of city-level DF epidemics aligns with the geographical divisions defined by the Huhuanyong Line (Hu Line) and Qin Mountain-Huai River Line (Q-H Line) and matched well with the city-level time windows for either mosquito vector activity (83.59%) or DF transmission (95.74%). The RF models achieved a high performance (AUC = 0.92) when considering the time windows. Importantly, they identified imported cases as the primary influencing factor, contributing significantly (24.82%) to local DF epidemics at the city level in the eastern region of the Hu Line (E-H region). Moreover, imported cases were found to have a linear promoting impact on local epidemics, while five climatic and six socioeconomic factors exhibited nonlinear effects (promoting or inhibiting) with varying inflection values. Additionally, this model demonstrated outstanding accuracy (hitting ratio = 95.56%) in predicting the city-level risks of local epidemics in China.
    CONCLUSIONS: China is experiencing an increasing occurrence of sporadic local DF epidemics driven by an unavoidably higher frequency and intensity of imported DF epidemics. This research offers valuable insights for health authorities to strengthen their intervention capabilities against this disease.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    背景:治疗和预防颅内高压(IH)以最大程度地减少继发性脑损伤是创伤性脑损伤(TBI)的神经重症监护管理的核心。提前预测IH的发作允许更积极的预防性治疗。本研究旨在开发用于预测TBI患者IH事件的随机森林(RF)模型。
    方法:我们分析了接受有创颅内压(ICP)监测的重症监护病房患者的前瞻性收集数据。术后早期(前6小时)持续ICP>22mmHg的患者被排除在关注尚未发生的IH事件。最初6小时的ICP相关数据用于提取线性(ICP,脑灌注压,压力反应性指数,和脑脊液代偿储备指数)和非线性特征(ICP和脑灌注压的复杂性)。IH定义为ICP>22mmHg持续>5分钟,在随后的ICP监测期间,重度IH(SIH)为ICP>22mmHg,持续>1小时。然后使用基线特征(年龄,性别,和初始格拉斯哥昏迷评分)以及线性和非线性特征。进行五倍交叉验证以避免过度拟合。
    结果:该研究包括69名患者。43例患者(62.3%)发生IH事件,其中30人(43%)进入SIH。IH事件的中位时间为9.83h,对于SIH事件,时间为11.22h。RF模型在预测IH方面表现出可接受的性能,曲线下面积(AUC)为0.76,在预测SIH方面表现优异(AUC=0.84)。交叉验证分析证实了结果的稳定性。
    结论:提出的RF模型可以预测随后的IH事件,特别严重的,TBI患者使用术后早期ICP数据。它为研究人员和临床医生提供了一个潜在的预测途径和框架,可以帮助在早期阶段需要更深入的神经治疗的患者进行分类。
    BACKGROUND: Treatment and prevention of intracranial hypertension (IH) to minimize secondary brain injury are central to the neurocritical care management of traumatic brain injury (TBI). Predicting the onset of IH in advance allows for a more aggressive prophylactic treatment. This study aimed to develop random forest (RF) models for predicting IH events in TBI patients.
    METHODS: We analyzed prospectively collected data from patients admitted to the intensive care unit with invasive intracranial pressure (ICP) monitoring. Patients with persistent ICP > 22 mmHg in the early postoperative period (first 6 h) were excluded to focus on IH events that had not yet occurred. ICP-related data from the initial 6 h were used to extract linear (ICP, cerebral perfusion pressure, pressure reactivity index, and cerebrospinal fluid compensatory reserve index) and nonlinear features (complexity of ICP and cerebral perfusion pressure). IH was defined as ICP > 22 mmHg for > 5 min, and severe IH (SIH) as ICP > 22 mmHg for > 1 h during the subsequent ICP monitoring period. RF models were then developed using baseline characteristics (age, sex, and initial Glasgow Coma Scale score) along with linear and nonlinear features. Fivefold cross-validation was performed to avoid overfitting.
    RESULTS: The study included 69 patients. Forty-three patients (62.3%) experienced an IH event, of whom 30 (43%) progressed to SIH. The median time to IH events was 9.83 h, and to SIH events, it was 11.22 h. The RF model showed acceptable performance in predicting IH with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.76 and excellent performance in predicting SIH (AUC = 0.84). Cross-validation analysis confirmed the stability of the results.
    CONCLUSIONS: The presented RF model can forecast subsequent IH events, particularly severe ones, in TBI patients using ICP data from the early postoperative period. It provides researchers and clinicians with a potentially predictive pathway and framework that could help triage patients requiring more intensive neurological treatment at an early stage.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    探索了太赫兹时域光谱技术(THz-TDS)在白云鄂博磁铁矿主要矿物定量分析中的应用。证实了原始矿石的光学参数与其铁含量之间的正相关。三种主要含铁矿物的探测,包括磁铁矿,黄铁矿,和赤铁矿,使用相应的试剂进行模拟。采用随机森林算法进行定量分析,在三元混合物中,FeS2的检测精度为R2=0.7686,MAE=0.6307%。实验结果表明,THz-TDS可以区分特定的含铁矿物,揭示了该测试方法在勘探和选矿领域的潜在应用价值。
    The application of terahertz time-domain spectroscopy (THz-TDS) in the quantitative analysis of major minerals in Bayan Obo magnetite ore was explored. The positive correlation between the optical parameters of the original ore and its iron content is confirmed. The detections of three main iron containing minerals, including magnetite, pyrite, and hematite, were simulated using corresponding reagents. The random forest algorithm is used for quantitative analysis, and FeS2 is detected with precision of R2 = 0.7686 and MAE = 0.6307% in ternary mixtures. The experimental results demonstrate that THz-TDS can distinguish specific iron containing minerals and reveal the potential application value of this testing method in exploration and mineral processing fields.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    了解小水体的时空分布对于管理水资源至关重要,制定保护政策,保护流域生态系统和生物多样性。然而,现有的研究通常依赖于单个遥感数据源(光学或微波),着眼于大规模,平坦地区,缺乏对复杂地形小水体的全面监测。因此,考虑到多源遥感(多光谱和SAR)的互补优势,本文提出了一种多光谱与SAR的融合算法,称为多光谱和SAR融合算法(MASF),能更好地捕捉复杂区域小水体的遥感特征。基于此,包含光谱的数据集,纹理,并构造了几何特征,多尺度分割和随机森林算法应用于复杂地形中的小水体识别。结果表明,提出的融合算法MASF具有最小的频谱失真(SAM<3.5,ERGAS<21,RMSE<0.01)和鲁棒的空间特征增强(PSNR>40,SSIM>0.999,CC>0.99)。两个实验区域的总体准确度(OA)和Kappa系数均超过0.9。对于河流和水库,生产者的准确性(PA)和用户的准确性(UA)均超过0.9。农业池塘的UA超过0.8。与其他三类涉水数据产品的对比分析表明,本研究的淡水鉴定结果在局部小水体中具有一定的优势。我们的研究对山区水资源的利用具有重要意义,预防和控制洪水和洪水,以及水产养殖业的发展。
    Understanding the spatial and temporal distribution of small water bodies is essential for managing water resources, crafting conservation policies, and preserving watershed ecosystems and biodiversity. However, existing studies often rely on a single remote sensing data source (optical or microwave), focusing on large-scale, flat areas and lacking comprehensive monitoring of small water bodies in complex terrain. Therefore, considering the complementary advantages of multisource remote sensing (multispectral and SAR), this paper proposes a multispectral and SAR fusion algorithm, named Multispectral and SAR Fusion algorithm (MASF), to better capture the remote sensing characteristics of small water bodies in complex areas. Based on this, a dataset containing spectral, texture, and geometric features is constructed, and multi-scale segmentation and random forest algorithms are applied for identification of small water bodies in complex terrain. The results demonstrate that the proposed fusion algorithm MASF exhibits minimal spectral distortion (SAM < 3.5, ERGAS <21, RMSE <0.01) and robust spatial feature enhancement (PSNR >40, SSIM >0.999, CC > 0.99). The Overall Accuracy (OA) and Kappa coefficients for both experimental areas surpassed 0.9. For rivers and reservoirs, both Producer\'s Accuracy (PA) and User\'s Accuracy (UA) exceeded 0.9. The UA for agricultural ponds exceeded 0.8. Comparative analysis with three other types of water-related data products shows that the freshwater identification results in this study have certain advantages in local small water bodies. Our research holds significant implications for the utilization of water resources in mountainous areas, prevention and control of floods and floods, as well as the development of aquaculture industry.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    探索可行和可再生的替代品以减少对传统化石塑料的依赖对于可持续发展至关重要。这些替代品可以从生物质生产,原料组成和系统参数可能存在较大的不确定性和变异性。本研究开发了一个建模框架,该框架将从摇篮到坟墓的生命周期评估(LCA)与严格的过程模型和人工智能(AI)模型集成在一起,以进行不确定性和变异性分析。仅使用流程模型进行操作非常耗时。该建模框架检查了美国玉米秸秆生产的聚乳酸(PLA)。通过进行蒙特卡洛模拟来分析不确定性和变异性,以显示详细的结果分布。我们的蒙特卡洛模拟结果表明,1千克PLA的平均生命周期全球变暖潜力(GWP)为4.3千克CO2eq(P5-P954.1-4.4),用于将PLA与燃烧的天然气堆肥用于生物炼制,3.7kgCO2eq(P5-P953.4-3.9)用于焚烧PLA的电力与燃烧用于生物炼制的天然气,和1.9kgCO2eq(P5-P951.6-2.1),用于焚烧PLA的电力,并燃烧木质颗粒用于生物炼制。确定了不同环境影响类别的权衡。基于原料组成的变化,训练了两个人工智能模型:随机森林和人工神经网络。两种AI模型都表现出很高的预测精度;然而,随机森林的表现略好。
    Exploring feasible and renewable alternatives to reduce dependency on traditional fossil-based plastics is critical for sustainable development. These alternatives can be produced from biomass, which may have large uncertainties and variabilities in the feedstock composition and system parameters. This study develops a modeling framework that integrates cradle-to-grave life cycle assessment (LCA) with a rigorous process model and artificial intelligence (AI) models to conduct uncertainty and variability analyses, which are highly time-consuming to conduct using only the process model. This modeling framework examines polylactic acid (PLA) produced from corn stover in the U.S. An analysis of uncertainty and variability was conducted by performing a Monte Carlo simulation to show the detailed result distributions. Our Monte Carlo simulation results show that the mean life-cycle Global Warming Potential (GWP) of 1 kg PLA is 4.3 kgCO2eq (P5-P95 4.1-4.4) for composting PLA with natural gas combusted for the biorefinery, 3.7 kgCO2eq (P5-P95 3.4-3.9) for incinerating PLA for electricity with natural gas combusted for the biorefinery, and 1.9 kgCO2eq (P5-P95 1.6-2.1) for incinerating PLA for electricity with wood pellets combusted for the biorefinery. Tradeoffs for different environmental impact categories were identified. Based on feedstock composition variations, two AI models were trained: random forest and artificial neural networks. Both AI models demonstrated high prediction accuracy; however, the random forest performed slightly better.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    曼谷地面沉降,一个紧迫的环境挑战,需要持续的长期政策干预。尽管缓解措施已成功缓解了曼谷内的沉降率,邻近省份的利率继续上升。传统的陆基监测方法在覆盖范围方面存在局限性,气候和社会经济因素的预期非线性贡献进一步使沉降的时空分布复杂化。这项研究旨在为近期(2023-2048)提供未来沉降预测,中期(2049-2074),和遥远的未来(2075-2100),采用干涉合成孔径雷达(InSAR),随机森林机器学习算法,并结合共享社会经济途径-代表性集中途径(SSP-RCP)方案来应对这些挑战。平均视线(LOS)速度为-7.0毫米/年,在大城府记录的最大-53.5毫米/年。所提出的模型表现出良好的性能,产生0.84的R2值,并且没有过拟合的迹象。在所有场景中,在不久的将来,沉降率往往会增加-9.0毫米/年以上。然而,对于中期和遥远的未来,场景说明了不同的趋势。“唯一的城市-LU变化”情景预测将逐步复苏,而其他变化情景表现出不同的趋势。
    Land subsidence in Bangkok, a pressing environmental challenge, demands sustained long-term policy interventions. Although mitigation measures have successfully alleviated subsidence rates within inner Bangkok, neighboring provinces continue to experience escalating rates. Conventional land-based monitoring methods exhibit limitations in coverage, and the anticipated nonlinear contributions of climatic and socioeconomic factors further complicate the spatiotemporal distribution of subsidence. This study aims to provide future subsidence predictions for the near (2023-2048), mid (2049-2074), and far-future (2075-2100), employing Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR), Random Forest machine learning algorithm, and combined Shared Socioeconomic Pathways-Representative Concentration Pathways (SSP-RCPs) scenarios to address these challenges. The mean Line-of-Sight (LOS) velocity was found to be -7.0 mm/year, with a maximum of -53.5 mm/year recorded in Ayutthaya. The proposed model demonstrated good performance, yielding an R2 value of 0.84 and exhibiting no signs of overfitting. Across all scenarios, subsidence rates tend to increase by more than -9.0 mm/year in the near-future. However, for the mid and far-future, scenarios illustrate varying trends. The \'only-urban-LU change\' scenario predicts a gradual recovery, while other change scenarios exhibit different tendencies.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    自引入NONMEM®以来,正向添加/反向消除(FABE)一直是群体药代动力学模型选择(PPK)的标准。我们研究了五种机器学习(ML)算法(遗传算法[GA],高斯过程[GP],随机森林[RF],梯度提升随机树[GBRT],和粒子群优化[PSO])作为FABE的替代方案。这些算法被应用于PPK模型选择,重点是比较它们各自的效率和鲁棒性。所有机器学习算法都包括ML算法与本地下坡搜索的组合。本地下坡搜索包括一次系统地更改一个或两个“功能”(一位或两位本地搜索),与ML方法交替使用。详尽的搜索(模型特征的所有可能组合,N=1,572,864款)是稳健性的黄金标准,在识别最终模型之前检查的模型数量是效率的度量标准。当与两位局部下坡搜索相结合时,所有算法都确定了最佳模型。GA,射频,GBRT,GP只需进行一位本地搜索即可确定最佳模型。PSO需要两位本地下坡搜索。在我们的分析中,GP是最有效的算法,通过在找到最优模型之前检查的模型数量(495个模型)来衡量,PSO表现出最低的效率,在找到最佳解决方案之前,需要1710个独特的模型。此外,GP也是需要2975.6分钟的最长经过时间的算法,与GA相比,这只需要321.8分钟。
    Forward addition/backward elimination (FABE) has been the standard for population pharmacokinetic model selection (PPK) since NONMEM® was introduced. We investigated five machine learning (ML) algorithms (Genetic algorithm [GA], Gaussian process [GP], random forest [RF], gradient boosted random tree [GBRT], and particle swarm optimization [PSO]) as alternatives to FABE. These algorithms were applied to PPK model selection with a focus on comparing the efficiency and robustness of each of them. All machine learning algorithms included the combination of ML algorithms with a local downhill search. The local downhill search consisted of systematically changing one or two \"features\" at a time (a one-bit or a two-bit local search), alternating with the ML methods. An exhaustive search (all possible combinations of model features, N = 1,572,864 models) was the gold standard for robustness, and the number of models examined leading prior to identification of the final model was the metric for efficiency.All algorithms identified the optimal model when combined with the two-bit local downhill search. GA, RF, GBRT, and GP identified the optimal model with only a one-bit local search. PSO required the two-bit local downhill search. In our analysis, GP was the most efficient algorithm as measured by the number of models examined prior to finding the optimal (495 models), and PSO exhibited the least efficiency, requiring 1710 unique models before finding the best solution. Additionally, GP was also the algorithm that needed the longest elapsed time of 2975.6 min, in comparison with GA, which only required 321.8 min.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    超过50%的急性缺血性卒中(AIS)幸存者承受不同程度的残疾,复发率为17.7%。因此,AIS结局的预测可能对治疗决策有用.本研究旨在确定机器学习方法在AIS患者中预测早期结果的适用性。
    2020年1月至2022年10月,蚌埠医科大学第一附属医院和第二附属医院神经内科收治的659例新发AIS患者纳入研究。病人的人口统计信息,病史,Org10,172在急性中风治疗(TOAST)中的试验,收集美国国立卫生研究院卒中量表(NIHSS)及入院24h实验室指标数据。改良兰金量表(mRS)用于评估参与者的3口预后。我们基于18个参数构建了9个机器学习模型,并比较了它们对结果变量的准确性。
    通过最小绝对收缩和选择算子交叉验证(LassoCV)方法进行的特征选择确定了AIS患者早期预后的最关键预测因子为白细胞(WBC),同型半胱氨酸(HCY),D-二聚体,基线NIHSS,纤维蛋白原降解产物(FDP),和葡萄糖(GLU)。在评估的九种机器学习模型中,随机森林模型在测试集中表现出优异的性能,曲线下面积(AUC)为0.852,准确率为0.818,灵敏度为0.654,特异性为0.945,召回率为0.900。
    这些发现表明,利用从入院最初24小时的一般临床和实验室数据的RF模型可以有效预测AIS患者的早期预后。
    UNASSIGNED: Upwards of 50% of acute ischemic stroke (AIS) survivors endure varying degrees of disability, with a recurrence rate of 17.7%. Thus, the prediction of outcomes in AIS may be useful for treatment decisions. This study aimed to determine the applicability of a machine learning approach for forecasting early outcomes in AIS patients.
    UNASSIGNED: A total of 659 patients with new-onset AIS admitted to the Department of Neurology of both the First and Second Affiliated Hospitals of Bengbu Medical University from January 2020 to October 2022 included in the study. The patient\' demographic information, medical history, Trial of Org 10,172 in Acute Stroke Treatment (TOAST), National Institute of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) and laboratory indicators at 24 h of admission data were collected. The Modified Rankine Scale (mRS) was used to assess the 3-mouth outcome of participants\' prognosis. We constructed nine machine learning models based on 18 parameters and compared their accuracies for outcome variables.
    UNASSIGNED: Feature selection through the Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator cross-validation (Lasso CV) method identified the most critical predictors for early prognosis in AIS patients as white blood cell (WBC), homocysteine (HCY), D-Dimer, baseline NIHSS, fibrinogen degradation product (FDP), and glucose (GLU). Among the nine machine learning models evaluated, the Random Forest model exhibited superior performance in the test set, achieving an Area Under the Curve (AUC) of 0.852, an accuracy rate of 0.818, a sensitivity of 0.654, a specificity of 0.945, and a recall rate of 0.900.
    UNASSIGNED: These findings indicate that RF models utilizing general clinical and laboratory data from the initial 24 h of admission can effectively predict the early prognosis of AIS patients.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    背景:鉴于创伤对世界各地医院系统的巨大影响,已经进行了一些尝试来开发创伤受害者结局的预测模型.最常用的,在许多研究中,最准确的预测模型,是“创伤评分和伤害严重程度评分”(TRISS)。虽然它已经被证明是相当准确和广泛使用,它因无法对更复杂的案件进行分类而面临批评。在这项研究中,我们的目标是开发机器学习模型,比TRISS更好地预测严重创伤患者的死亡率,以前没有使用全国登记册的数据进行研究的东西。
    方法:患者数据从瑞典的国家创伤登记处收集,SweTrau.研究期间为2015年1月1日至2019年12月31日。在特征选择和缺失数据的多重填补之后,三种机器学习(ML)方法(随机森林,极限梯度提升,和广义线性模型)用于创建预测模型。然后测试ML模型和TRISS对30天死亡率的预测能力。
    结果:ML模型经过良好校准,在所有测试的测量中都优于TRISS。在ML模型中,极限梯度提升模型表现最好,AUC为0.91(0.88-0.93)。
    结论:这项研究表明,所有开发的基于ML的预测模型在预测创伤死亡率方面均优于TRISS。
    BACKGROUND: Given the huge impact of trauma on hospital systems around the world, several attempts have been made to develop predictive models for the outcomes of trauma victims. The most used, and in many studies most accurate predictive model, is the \"Trauma Score and Injury Severity Score\" (TRISS). Although it has proven to be fairly accurate and is widely used, it has faced criticism for its inability to classify more complex cases. In this study, we aimed to develop machine learning models that better than TRISS could predict mortality among severely injured trauma patients, something that has not been studied using data from a nationwide register before.
    METHODS: Patient data was collected from the national trauma register in Sweden, SweTrau. The studied period was from the 1st of January 2015 to 31st of December 2019. After feature selection and multiple imputation of missing data three machine learning (ML) methods (Random Forest, eXtreme Gradient Boosting, and a Generalized Linear Model) were used to create predictive models. The ML models and TRISS were then tested on predictive ability for 30-day mortality.
    RESULTS: The ML models were well-calibrated and outperformed TRISS in all the tested measurements. Among the ML models, the eXtreme Gradient Boosting model performed best with an AUC of 0.91 (0.88-0.93).
    CONCLUSIONS: This study showed that all the developed ML-based prediction models were superior to TRISS for the prediction of trauma mortality.
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