■疫情突然迅速蔓延。欠发达地区的医院在疫情爆发时尤其脆弱。本文旨在评估不同流行阶段医院的流行风险状态及其变化趋势,找出影响医院流行风险变化的关键因素,为医院疫情风险控制提供优先参考,增强医院应对突发流行病的能力。
■基于扎根理论,总结了影响医院安全的流行风险指标。根据马尔可夫链理论,提出了流行病风险状态及其随机状态空间的概念。从风险发生概率和风险损失两个方面综合评估各指标对随机风险状态及其变化的影响。最后,实现了医院流行风险状态的评估及其在不同阶段的变化。
■欠发达地区公立医院在非流行阶段t0、早期流行阶段t1、爆发阶段t2的稳定风险状态为P^t0(Sn)={0。142,0.546,0.220,0.093},P^t1(Sn)={0。025,0.364,0.254,0.357},P^t2(Sn)={0。020,0.241,0.191,0.548},分别。在非流行阶段,改善医院流行风险状态的关键因素是应急资金。在早期流行阶段,改善医院流行风险状态的关键因素是对医务人员进行防疫技能培训和公共卫生管理。在爆发状态下,改善医院流行风险状态的关键因素是对医务人员进行防疫技能和心理意识的培训。
■本文提出了流行病风险状态的概念,为公立医院疫情风险状态及其变化趋势提供了有效的评估方法。根据评估,处于不同流行阶段的欠发达地区公立医院应采取不同的风险控制策略,以改善其当前的风险状况。盲目的风险控制效率低下,甚至可能导致疫情风险向更加危险的状态过渡。
UNASSIGNED: Epidemics are sudden and rapidly spreading. Hospitals in underdeveloped areas are particularly vulnerable in case of an outbreak. This paper aims to assess the epidemic risk state and its change trend of hospitals in different epidemic stages, identify the key factors affecting hospital epidemic risk change, provide priority reference for hospital epidemic risk control, and enhance the hospital\'s ability to respond to sudden epidemics.
UNASSIGNED: Based on Grounded theory, the epidemic risk indicators that affect hospital safety are summarized. The concept of epidemic risk state and its random state space is proposed according to Markov chain theory. The impact of each indicator on the random risk state and its change is comprehensively assessed from two aspects: risk occurrence probability and risk loss. Finally, the assessment of the hospital epidemic risk state and its change at different stages is achieved.
UNASSIGNED: The stable risk states of public hospitals in underdeveloped areas in non-epidemic stage t0, early epidemic stage t1, and outbreak stage t2 are P ^ t 0 ( S n ) = { 0 . 142 , 0 . 546 , 0 . 220 , 0 . 093 } , P ^ t 1 ( S n ) = { 0 . 025 , 0 . 364 , 0 . 254 , 0 . 357 } , and P ^ t 2 ( S n ) = { 0 . 020 , 0 . 241 , 0 . 191 , 0 . 548 } , respectively. In non-epidemic stage, the key factor in improving the hospital epidemic risk state is emergency funding. In early epidemic stage, the key factors in improving the hospital epidemic risk state are the training of medical staff in epidemic prevention skills and the management of public health. In outbreak state, the key factor in improving the hospital epidemic risk state is the training of medical staff in epidemic prevention skills and psychological awareness.
UNASSIGNED: This paper proposes the concept of epidemic risk state, providing an effective assessment method for the epidemic risk state and its change trend in public hospitals. According to the assessment, public hospitals in underdeveloped areas in different epidemic stages should adopt different risk control strategies to improve their current risk state. Blind risk control is inefficient and may even cause the epidemic risk to transition toward a more dangerous state.