Protected areas such as national parks constitute an increasing land mass globally, but these areas are under increasing threat from climate change events such as drought, flooding, and bushfires. The recent Yosemite National Park fires in California provide an example of this issue. After any such disaster, authorities will need to restore those protected areas to their former state at significant costs within any public funding cycle. To corroborate that request, clear economic assessments of total costs and benefits will be required. However, in previous studies of these issues a complete set of government cost and/or benefit data may not be provided, skewing assessment results accordingly. Using South Australia\'s Kangaroo Island protected areas-which were significantly destroyed by bushfire in 2019-20-as a case study with a unique set of State government cost data we calculate a set of analyses via economic methods. Despite significant restoration costs the study found the discounted net present value of returning tourists to the Island is 3.15 over ten years for park tourism and regional economic impacts, providing an internal rate of return of 22%. The rebuild work is also expected to support around 430 full time equivalent (FTE) jobs during construction, with a return to full tourism supporting another 744 FTEs across relevant sectors (e.g. accommodation, retail) of the Kangaroo Island economy. This robust assessment makes it far easier for protected area managers to argue their funding case.

Cryptic species are groups of two or more taxa that were previously classified as single nominal species. Being almost morphologically indistinguishable, cryptic species have historically been hard to detect. Only through modern morphometric, genetic, and molecular analyses has the hidden biodiversity of cryptic species complexes been revealed. Cryptic diversity is now widely acknowledged, but unlike more recognisable, charismatic species, scientists face additional challenges when studying cryptic taxa and protecting their wild populations. Demographical and ecological data are vital to facilitate and inform successful conservation actions, particularly at the individual species level, yet this information is lacking for many cryptic species due to their recent taxonomic description and lack of research attention. The first part of this article summarises cryptic speciation and diversity, and explores the numerous barriers and considerations that conservation biologists must navigate to detect, study and manage cryptic species populations effectively. The second part of the article seeks to address how we can overcome the challenges associated with efficiently and non-invasively detecting cryptic species in-situ, and filling vital knowledge gaps that are currently inhibiting applied conservation. The final section discusses future directions, and suggests that large-scale, holistic, and collaborative approaches that build upon successful existing applications will be vital for cryptic species conservation. This article also acknowledges that sufficient data to implement effective species-specific conservation will be difficult to attain for many cryptic animals, and protected area networks will be vital for their conservation in the short term.

Protected areas (PAs) are an essential tool for conservation amid the global biodiversity crisis. Optimizing PAs to represent species at risk of extinction is crucial. Vertebrate representation in PAs is assessed using species distribution databases from the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) and the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF). Evaluating and addressing discrepancies and biases in these data sources are vital for effective conservation strategies. Our objective was to gain insights into the potential constraints (e.g., differences and biases) of these global repositories to objectively depict the diversity of threatened vertebrates in the global system of PAs. We assessed differences in species richness (SR) of threatened vertebrates as reported by IUCN and GBIF in PAs globally and then compared how biased this information was with reports from independent sources for a subset of PAs. Both databases showed substantial differences in SR in PAs (t = -62.35, p ≤ 0.001), but differences varied among regions and vertebrate groups. When these results were compared with data from independent assessments, IUCN overestimated SR by 575% on average and GBIF underestimated SR by 63% on average, again with variable results among regions and groups. Our results indicate the need to improve analyses of the representativeness of threatened vertebrates in PAs such that robust and unbiased assessments of PA effectiveness can be conducted. The scientific community and decision makers should consider these regional and taxonomic disparities when using IUCN and GBIF distributional data sources in PA assessment. Overall, supplementing information in these databases could lead to more robust and reliable analyses. Additional efforts to acquire more comprehensive and unbiased data on species distributions to support conservation decisions are clearly needed.
Capacidad de los macrodatos para capturar la diversidad de vertebrados amenazados en las áreas protegidas Resumen Las áreas protegidas (AP) son una herramienta esencial para la conservación en medio de la crisis mundial de biodiversidad. Es crucial optimizar las AP para que representen a las especies en peligro de extinción. La representación de vertebrados en las AP se evalúa con las bases de datos de distribución de especies de la Unión Internacional para la Conservación de la Naturaleza (UICN) y del Sistema Global de Información sobre Biodiversidad (GBIF). Es muy importante evaluar y abordar las discrepancias y sesgos en estas fuentes de datos para tener estrategias de conservación eficaces. Nuestro objetivo es conocer las limitaciones potenciales (por ejemplo, diferencias y sesgos) de estos repositorios globales para representar objetivamente la diversidad de vertebrados amenazados en el sistema global de AP. Analizamos las diferencias en la riqueza de especies (RE) de vertebrados amenazados según los informes de la UICN y GBIF en AP a nivel mundial y luego comparamos el grado de sesgo de esta información con los informes de fuentes independientes para un subconjunto de AP. Ambas bases de datos mostraron diferencias sustanciales en la RE en las AP (t = ‐62.35, p = <0.001), pero las diferencias variaron entre regiones y grupos de vertebrados. Cuando comparamos estos resultados con datos de evaluaciones independientes, la UICN sobreestimó la RE en un 575% en promedio y el GBIF la subestimó en un 63% en promedio, de nuevo con resultados variables entre regiones y grupos. Nuestros resultados indican la necesidad de mejorar los análisis de representación de los vertebrados amenazados en las AP para que se puedan llevar a cabo evaluaciones sólidas e imparciales de la efectividad de las AP. La comunidad científica y los responsables de la toma de decisiones deberían tener en cuenta estas disparidades regionales y taxonómicas al utilizar las fuentes de datos distribucionales de la UICN y del GBIF en la evaluación de AP. En general, complementar la información de estas bases de datos podría conducir a análisis más sólidos y fiables. Está claro que se necesitan esfuerzos adicionales para adquirir datos más completos e imparciales sobre la distribución de las especies para apoyar las decisiones de conservación.

Globally, we are in the midst of a biodiversity crisis and megadiverse countries become key targets for conservation. South Africa, the only country in the world hosting three biodiversity hotspots within its borders, harbours a tremendous diversity of at-risk species deserving to be protected. However, the lengthy risk assessment process and the lack of required data to complete assessments is a serious limitation to conservation since several species may slide into extinction while awaiting risk assessment. Here, we employed a deep neural network model integrating species climatic and geographic features to predict the conservation status of 116 unassessed plant species. Our analysis involved in total of 1072 plant species and 96,938 occurrence points. The best-performing model exhibits high accuracy, reaching up to 83.6% at the binary classification and 56.8% at the detailed classification. Our best-performing model at the binary classification predicts that 32% (25 species) and 8% (3 species) of Data Deficient and Not-Evaluated species respectively, are likely threatened, amounting to a proportion of 24.1% of unassessed species facing a risk of extinction. Interestingly, all unassessed species predicted to be threatened are in protected areas, revealing the effectiveness of South Africa\'s network of protected areas in conservation, although these likely threatened species are more abundant outside protected areas. Considering the limitation in assessing only species with available data, there remains a possibility of a higher proportion of unassessed species being imperilled.

Successful conservation of expanding large carnivore populations and management of human-wildlife conflict to promote coexistence requires sufficient spatiotemporal knowledge to inform appropriate action. In Canada, cougars (Puma concolor) are expanding their range eastwards and little research is available for use in decision making by land managers and conservation planners. To inform proactive management regarding expanding populations of cougars in Canada, we utilized open-source cougar presence and land-cover data in a maximum entropy habitat suitability model to determine potentially suitable habitat for cougars across the country. We then used a gap analysis to determine the effectiveness of existing formal protected areas to protect potential cougar habitat. Suitable habitat exists for range-expanding cougars dispersing eastwards through the central and eastern provinces to the Atlantic coast. While the habitat is highly fragmented, the highest suitability occurs in areas of medium road density, indicating that the potential for new human-cougar conflict will likely involve residents of exurban and rural areas. Protected areas offered 16% coverage of suitable habitat, although most protected areas that overlap predicted cougar habitat are not large enough to effectively conserve the large home range requirements of cougars. Synthesis and Applications: High fragmentation of suitable habitat and the potential for human-wildlife conflict requires proactive management to ensure appropriately sized and connected areas are maintained for the establishment of expanding cougar populations. Many of the management actions intended to aid in the conservation of cougars and their habitat can also serve to mitigate potential human-cougar conflict arising as a consequence of an expanding population, such as highway wildlife crossing structures and formal habitat protection.

Conservationists have long argued that inadequate funding for managing protected areas (PAs) jeopardizes their ability to achieve conservation goals. However, this claim has rarely been substantiated by quantitative evaluations. To address this, we examined the impact of funding on PA effectiveness both at the scale of 17 national PA systems across Latin America and within a PA system (Ecuador), for which we had precise historical financial data. Most PAs reduced deforestation between 2000 and 2010, demonstrating their crucial role in forest conservation. However, large deficits in funding considerably reduced the effectiveness of PAs in Ecuador (on average, a unit decrease in deficit leads to a 3.07% increase in effectiveness in avoiding deforestation). While differences in effectiveness between individual PAs in Ecuador were associated with funding deficits, national-level socioeconomic metrics (e.g., the Human Development Index) were the major factor when comparing PA system-level effectiveness among countries. This result suggests that while funding plays a major role in the performance of individual PAs, the quality of the socioeconomic context at the country level is critical for the overall performance of the PA systems. We, therefore, emphasize that maximizing the effectiveness of PAs requires a multilevel approach that includes better and more strategic resource allocation for individual PAs, combined with actions for strengthening the governance and institutions that regulate PA systems.

Climate change has profound impacts on forest ecosystem dynamics and could lead to the emergence of novel ecosystems via changes in species composition, forest structure, and potentially a complete loss of tree cover. Disturbances fundamentally shape those dynamics: the prevailing disturbance regime of a region determines the inherent variability of a system, and its climate-mediated change could accelerate forest transformation. We used the individual-based forest landscape and disturbance model iLand to investigate the resilience of three protected temperate forest landscapes on three continents-selected to represent a gradient from low to high disturbance activity-to changing climate and disturbance regimes. In scenarios of sustained strong global warming, natural disturbances increased across all landscapes regardless of projected changes in precipitation (up to a sevenfold increase in disturbance rate over the 180-year simulation period). Forests in landscapes with historically high disturbance activity had a higher chance of remaining resilient in the future, retaining their structure and composition within the range of variability inherent to the system. However, the risk of regime shift and forest loss was also highest in these systems, suggesting forests may be vulnerable to abrupt change beyond a threshold of increasing disturbance activity. Resilience generally decreased with increasing severity of climate change. Novelty in tree species composition was more common than novelty in forest structure, especially under dry climate scenarios. Forests close to the upper tree line experienced high novelty in structure across all three study systems. Our results highlight common patterns and processes of forest change, while also underlining the diverse and context-specific responses of temperate forest landscapes to climate change. Understanding past and future disturbance regimes can anticipate the magnitude and direction of forest change. Yet, even across a broad gradient of disturbance activity, we conclude that climate change mitigation is the most effective means of maintaining forest resilience.
気候変動は森林生態系に深刻な影響を及ぼし、樹種構成や森林構造の変化、さらには非森林植生への移行を通じて新たな生態系を出現させる可能性がある。自然撹乱はこのような生態系動態を規定しているだけでなく、撹乱体制が生態系の固有の変動を決定し、さらには気候変動に伴う撹乱体制の変化により森林の変化が加速される可能性がある。本研究では、個体ベースの森林景観・撹乱モデルiLandを用いて、3つの大陸にある、撹乱の規模・頻度・強度などの撹乱活動の程度が異なる3つの自然保護地域を対象に、温帯林の気候および撹乱レジームの変化に対する動態とレジリアンスを精査した。ここでのレジリアンスは、各地域における本来の森林構造と種構成に基づくものである。将来的な温暖化が強度に進行するシナリオでは、予測される降水量の変化にかかわらず、3つの全ての対象景観において自然撹乱が激化した(180年間のシミュレーション期間で撹乱率は最大7倍に増加)。歴史的に撹乱活動が活発であった森林景観は、将来もレジリアンスを維持する可能性が高いことが示唆された。しかし、これらのシステムでは森林消失のリスクが最も高く、撹乱活動の増大による急激な変化に対して森林が脆弱である可能性も示された。総じて、森林生態系のレジリアンスは気候変動の厳しさが増すにつれて低下した。森林構造の変化よりも、森林の樹種構成の変化の方が生じやすく、特に乾燥化する気候シナリオで顕著であった。樹木限界に近い森林では、対象とする3つの森林景観すべてにおいて、森林構造の変化が著しかった。これらの結果は、気候変動に対する大陸をまたいだ温帯林の変化パターンと背景プロセスの共通性を明らかにしたと同時に、気候変動に対する温帯林の多様かつ状況特有の応答を示した。過去と未来の自然撹乱レジームを理解することで、森林変化の大きさと方向性を予測することができる。本研究により、撹乱活動が幅広い勾配をもつ場合でも、気候変動緩和が森林のレジリエンスを維持する効果的な手段であることが示唆された。これらの結果は、気候変動に対する大陸をまたいだ温帯林の変化パターンの共通性と背景プロセスの解明に寄与するものである。気候変動緩和が実現することが最も望ましい一方で、将来的な過去と未来の自然撹乱レジームを理解することも必要である。本研究の成果は、将来的な森林変化の予測に大きく寄与するものである。.
Der Klimawandel hat tiefgreifende Auswirkungen auf die Dynamik von Waldökosystemen und könnte durch Veränderungen der Artenzusammensetzung und der Waldstruktur sowie durch einen möglichen vollständigen Verlust der Baumbestände zur Entstehung neuer Ökosysteme führen. Störungen prägen diese Dynamik grundlegend: Das in einer Region vorherrschende Störungsregime bestimmt die inhärente Variabilität eines Systems, und seine klimabedingte Veränderung könnte die Umwandlung des Waldes beschleunigen. Wir haben das Waldlandschafts‐ und Störungsmodell iLand verwendet, um die Resilienz dreier geschützter Waldlandschaften der gemäßigten Zonen auf drei Kontinenten zu untersuchen, die so ausgewählt wurden, dass sie einen Gradienten von geringer bis hoher Störungsaktivität repräsentieren. In Szenarien mit anhaltend starker globaler Erwärmung nahmen die natürlichen Störungen in allen Landschaften unabhängig von den prognostizierten Niederschlagsveränderungen zu (bis zu einem siebenfachen Anstieg der Störungsrate über den Simulationszeitraum von 180 Jahren). Wälder in Landschaften mit historisch hoher Störungsaktivität hatten eine höhere Chance, auch in Zukunft widerstandsfähig zu bleiben und ihre Struktur und Zusammensetzung innerhalb der systeminhärenten Variabilität beizubehalten. Allerdings war in diesen Systemen auch das Risiko eines Regimewechsels und eines Waldverlusts am höchsten, was darauf hindeutet, dass die Wälder jenseits einer Schwelle zunehmender Störungsaktivität für abrupte Veränderungen anfällig sein könnten. Die Resilienz nahm im Allgemeinen mit zunehmender Schwere des Klimawandels ab. Neuartigkeit in der Baumartenzusammensetzung war häufiger als Neuartigkeit in der Waldstruktur, insbesondere unter trockenen Klimaszenarien. Wälder in der Nähe der oberen Baumgrenze wiesen in allen drei untersuchten Systemen eine hohe Neuartigkeit der Struktur auf. Unsere Ergebnisse heben gemeinsame Muster und Prozesse des Waldwandels hervor, unterstreichen aber auch die vielfältigen und kontextspezifischen Reaktionen gemäßigter Waldlandschaften auf den Klimawandel. Das Verständnis vergangener und zukünftiger Störungsregime kann das Ausmaß und die Richtung des Waldwandels vorhersagen. Wir kommen jedoch zu dem Schluss, dass die Abschwächung des Klimawandels das wirksamste Mittel ist, um die Widerstandsfähigkeit der Wälder zu erhalten, selbst über einen breiten Gradienten von Störungen hinweg.

Vascular plants are diverse and a major component of terrestrial ecosystems, yet their geographic distributions remain incomplete. Here, I present a global database of vascular plant distributions by integrating species distribution models calibrated to species\' dispersal ability and natural habitats to predict native range maps for 201,681 vascular plant species into unsurveyed areas. Using these maps, I uncover unique patterns of native vascular plant diversity, endemism, and phylogenetic diversity revealing hotspots in underdocumented biodiversity-rich regions. These hotspots, based on detailed species-level maps, show a pronounced latitudinal gradient, strongly supporting the theory of increasing diversity toward the equator. I trained random forest models to extrapolate diversity patterns under unbiased global sampling and identify overlaps with modeled estimations but unveiled cryptic hotspots that were not captured by modeled estimations. Only 29% to 36% of extrapolated plant hotspots are inside protected areas, leaving more than 60% outside and vulnerable. However, the unprotected hotspots harbor species with unique attributes that make them good candidates for conservation prioritization.

The alarming decline of amphibians, sometimes marked by sudden extinctions, underlines the urgent need for increased conservation efforts. Conservationists recognize that more action, particularly the setting of national targets, is needed to ensure the future persistence and recovery of species and habitats. Protecting habitats that harbor evolutionarily diverse species preserves divergent genetic information within ecosystems. Türkiye holds 36 amphibian species at the intersection of two continents, creating three biodiversity hotspots and phylogenetic transitional areas. In this study, we aimed to determine the hotspot regions and to evaluate the effectiveness of the protected areas in Türkiye in preserving amphibian populations. First, we estimated four community indexes (species richness and three evolutionary distinctiveness measures) for amphibian communities in Türkiye divided into 371 grid cells with a ca 50 × 50 km size. Then, the spatial extent of protected areas is evaluated from two perspectives: current (has a protection status) and candidate protected areas (Key Biodiversity Areas, not protected) coverage in those grid cells. Finally, these two approaches\' effectiveness in protecting areas was assessed by modeling four diversity metrics using GLS models. Current protected areas protect about 6% of the total amphibian distribution in Türkiye, while Key Biodiversity Areas would cover 30% if declared protected areas. We estimated that the coastal areas of Türkiye are identified as hotspots based on the four measured amphibian community indexes. Our study also highlights that Key Biodiversity Areas (KBAs) can contribute to conserving high levels of amphibian richness and evolutionary distinctiveness of species across Türkiye. However, existing protected areas (PAs) networks were insufficient to protect amphibians.

The rapid decline of global biodiversity has engendered renewed debate about the social, economic, and political factors contributing to it. Specifically, there is little understanding of the role that political ideology within a country (e.g., nationalism, conservatism, socialism) plays in determining biodiversity outcomes. We used negative binomial generalized linear models to investigate the importance of national regime ideology in predicting threatened animal species and protected area establishment compared with other factors that affect biodiversity outcomes, such as gross domestic product, inequality, and democracy. For threatened animals, the model with the highest Akaike weight suggested adverse biodiversity outcomes arose from larger gross domestic product (β = 0.120, p < 0.001). However, nationalism (β = 0.371, p < 0.01) and socialism (β = 0.293, p < 0.05) were also significantly associated with increased proportions of threatened species. For protected areas, the model with the highest Akaike weight suggested increases in democracy (β = 0.880, p < 0.001) led to a rise in relative protected area estate. Conservative regime ideology was also associated with greater protected area estate, although this did not increase the weight of evidence in support of the best models. These findings highlight the relevance of political ideology for predicting biodiversity outcomes at a national scale and illustrate opportunities to tailor policies and advocacy to promote biodiversity conservation more effectively. By targeting appropriate messaging and political advocacy, conservationists can improve the likelihood that politicians and their nations will participate in positive biodiversity actions.
El papel de la ideología del régimen nacional para la predicción de resultados de biodiversidad Resumen El rápido declive de la biodiversidad mundial ha suscitado un renovado debate sobre los factores sociales, económicos y políticos que contribuyen a él. En concreto, se conoce poco el papel que desempeña la ideología política dentro de un país (por ejemplo, el nacionalismo, el conservadurismo o el socialismo) a la hora de determinar los resultados en materia de biodiversidad. Utilizamos modelos lineales generalizados binomiales negativos para investigar la importancia de la ideología del régimen nacional a la hora de predecir las especies animales amenazadas y el establecimiento de áreas protegidas en comparación con otros factores que afectan a los resultados de la biodiversidad, como el producto interno bruto, la desigualdad y la democracia. En el caso de los animales amenazados, el modelo con la mayor ponderación de Akaike sugirió que los resultados adversos para la biodiversidad se debían a un mayor producto interno bruto (β = 0,120, p < 0,001). Sin embargo, el nacionalismo (β = 0,371, p < 0,01) y el socialismo (β = 0,293, p < 0,05) también se asociaron significativamente con una mayor proporción de especies amenazadas. En el caso de las áreas protegidas, el modelo con la mayor ponderación de Akaike sugirió que el aumento de la democracia (β = 0,880, p < 0,001) conducía a un aumento de la extensión relativa de las áreas protegidas. La ideología conservadora del régimen también se asoció con una mayor superficie de áreas protegidas, aunque no aumentó el peso de la evidencia en apoyo de los mejores modelos. Estos resultados resaltan la importancia de la ideología política para predecir los resultados de la biodiversidad a escala nacional e ilustran las oportunidades de adaptar las políticas y la defensa para promover la conservación de la biodiversidad de manera más eficaz. Si se orientan los mensajes y la promoción política de forma adecuada, los conservacionistas pueden mejorar la probabilidad de que los políticos y sus naciones participen en acciones positivas para la biodiversidad.