prognostic index

预后指数
  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    TP53突变(TP53-mut)与许多癌症的低生存率相关,而其在弥漫性大B细胞淋巴瘤(DLBCL)中的预后作用仍存在争议。因此,对于TP53-mutDLBCL患者,需要进一步探讨更精确的风险分层.一组来自多个队列的2637个DLBCL病例,参与了我们的分析。在2637名DLBCL患者中,14.0%的患者(370/2637)患有TP53-mut。由于错义突变占TP53-mutDLBCL患者的绝大多数,大多数非错义突变会影响P53蛋白的功能,导致更低的存活率,我们区分了错义突变的患者。基于150组合机器学习计算框架,构建了TP53错义突变风险模型,在预测预后方面表现优异。进一步的分析显示,高风险错义突变的患者与早期进展显着相关,并且在转录水平上表现出多种免疫和代谢途径的失调。此外,高危人群表现出绝对抑制的免疫微环境.为了对TP53-mutDLBCL的整个队列进行分层,我们结合临床特点,最终构建了TP53预后指数(TP53PI)模型.总之,我们确定了真正的高危TP53-mutDLBCL患者,并在突变和转录水平解释了这种差异.
    TP53 mutation (TP53-mut) correlates with inferior survival in many cancers, whereas its prognostic role in diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL) is still in controversy. Therefore, more precise risk stratification needs to be further explored for TP53-mut DLBCL patients. A set of 2637 DLBCL cases from multiple cohorts, was enrolled in our analysis. Among the 2637 DLBCL patients, 14.0% patients (370/2637) had TP53-mut. Since missense mutations account for the vast majority of TP53-mut DLBCL patients, and most non-missense mutations affect the function of the P53 protein, leading to worse survival rates, we distinguished patients with missense mutations. A TP53 missense mutation risk model was constructed based on a 150-combination machine learning computational framework, demonstrating excellent performance in predicting prognosis. Further analysis revealed that patients with high-risk missense mutations are significantly associated with early progression and exhibit dysregulation of multiple immune and metabolic pathways at the transcriptional level. Additionally, the high-risk group showed an absolutely suppressed immune microenvironment. To stratify the entire cohort of TP53-mut DLBCL, we combined clinical characteristics and ultimately constructed the TP53 Prognostic Index (TP53PI) model. In summary, we identified the truly high-risk TP53-mut DLBCL patients and explained this difference at the mutation and transcriptional levels.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    目的:评估重症监护病房(ICU)癌症患者死亡率预测量表的预测能力。
    方法:在2022年10月使用搜索算法对文献进行了系统回顾。搜索了以下数据库:PubMed,Scopus,虚拟健康图书馆(BVS)还有Medrxiv.使用QUADAS-2量表评估偏倚风险。
    方法:ICU接纳癌症患者。
    方法:研究包括患有活动性癌症的成年患者,并进入ICU。
    方法:无干预的综合研究。
    方法:死亡率预测,标准化死亡率,歧视,和校准。
    结果:分析了ICU中癌症患者的7种死亡风险预测模型。大多数型号(APACHEII,阿帕奇四世,SOFA,SAPS-II,SAPS-III,和MPMII)低估了死亡率,ICMM高估了它。APACHEII的SMR(标准化死亡率)值最接近1,表明与其他模型相比具有更好的预后能力。
    结论:由于缺乏明确的优越模型和现有预测工具的固有局限性,预测ICU癌症患者的死亡率仍然是一个复杂的挑战。对于基于证据的知情临床决策,重要的是要考虑医疗团队对每个工具的熟悉程度及其固有的局限性。开发新的仪器或进行大规模验证研究对于提高预测准确性和优化该人群的患者护理至关重要。
    OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the predictive ability of mortality prediction scales in cancer patients admitted to intensive care units (ICUs).
    METHODS: A systematic review of the literature was conducted using a search algorithm in October 2022. The following databases were searched: PubMed, Scopus, Virtual Health Library (BVS), and Medrxiv. The risk of bias was assessed using the QUADAS-2 scale.
    METHODS: ICUs admitting cancer patients.
    METHODS: Studies that included adult patients with an active cancer diagnosis who were admitted to the ICU.
    METHODS: Integrative study without interventions.
    METHODS: Mortality prediction, standardized mortality, discrimination, and calibration.
    RESULTS: Seven mortality risk prediction models were analyzed in cancer patients in the ICU. Most models (APACHE II, APACHE IV, SOFA, SAPS-II, SAPS-III, and MPM II) underestimated mortality, while the ICMM overestimated it. The APACHE II had the SMR (Standardized Mortality Ratio) value closest to 1, suggesting a better prognostic ability compared to the other models.
    CONCLUSIONS: Predicting mortality in ICU cancer patients remains an intricate challenge due to the lack of a definitive superior model and the inherent limitations of available prediction tools. For evidence-based informed clinical decision-making, it is crucial to consider the healthcare team\'s familiarity with each tool and its inherent limitations. Developing novel instruments or conducting large-scale validation studies is essential to enhance prediction accuracy and optimize patient care in this population.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    宫颈癌是全球最常见的恶性肿瘤之一。本研究探讨血管生成相关基因(ARGs)与免疫浸润的关系,并评估其对宫颈癌预后和治疗的影响。此外,它建立了基于血管生成相关差异表达基因(ARDEGs)的诊断模型.
    我们使用基因本体论(GO)系统地评估了15个ARDEGs,京都基因和基因组百科全书(KEGG),基因集富集分析(GSEA),和基因集变异分析(GSVA)。使用单样品基因集富集分析(ssGSEA)算法评估免疫细胞浸润。然后,我们使用最小绝对收缩和选择算子(LASSO)回归分析构建了ARDEGs的诊断模型,并评估了该模型和hub基因在预测宫颈癌临床结果和免疫治疗反应中的诊断价值。
    从癌症基因组图谱(TCGA)中鉴定出一组ARDEGs,基因表达综合(GEO),和UCSCXena数据库。我们表演了KEGG,GO,GSEA分析了这些基因,揭示了细胞增殖的显著参与,分化,和凋亡。ARDEGs诊断模型,使用LASSO回归分析构建,在宫颈癌患者中显示出较高的预测准确性。我们开发了可靠的列线图和决策曲线分析来评估ARDEG诊断模型的临床实用性。模型中的15个ARDEGs与临床病理特征相关,预后,和免疫细胞浸润。值得注意的是,ITGA5表达与免疫细胞浸润(特别是肥大细胞活化)的丰度高度相关。
    这项研究确定了子宫颈癌患者ARGs的预后特征,阐明肿瘤微环境的各个方面。它提高了免疫治疗结果的预测准确性,并建立了免疫治疗干预的新策略。
    UNASSIGNED: Cervical cancer is among the most prevalent malignancies worldwide. This study explores the relationships between angiogenesis-related genes (ARGs) and immune infiltration, and assesses their implications for the prognosis and treatment of cervical cancer. Additionally, it develops a diagnostic model based on angiogenesis-related differentially expressed genes (ARDEGs).
    UNASSIGNED: We systematically evaluated 15 ARDEGs using Gene Ontology (GO), Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Genomes (KEGG), Gene Set Enrichment Analysis (GSEA), and Gene Set Variation Analysis (GSVA). Immune cell infiltration was assessed using a single-sample gene-set enrichment analysis (ssGSEA) algorithm. We then constructed a diagnostic model for ARDEGs using Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) regression analysis and evaluated the diagnostic value of this model and the hub genes in predicting clinical outcomes and immunotherapy responses in cervical cancer.
    UNASSIGNED: A set of ARDEGs was identified from the Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA), Gene Expression Omnibus (GEO), and UCSC Xena database. We performed KEGG, GO, and GSEA analyses on these genes, revealing significant involvement in cell proliferation, differentiation, and apoptosis. The ARDEGs diagnostic model, constructed using LASSO regression analysis, showed high predictive accuracy in cervical cancer patients. We developed a reliable nomogram and decision curve analysis to evaluate the clinical utility of the ARDEG diagnostic model. The 15 ARDEGs in the model were associated with clinicopathological features, prognosis, and immune cell infiltration. Notably, ITGA5 expression and the abundance of immune cell infiltration (specifically mast cell activation) were highly correlated.
    UNASSIGNED: This study identifies the prognostic characteristics of ARGs in cervical cancer patients, elucidating aspects of the tumor microenvironment. It enhances the predictive accuracy of immunotherapy outcomes and establishes new strategies for immunotherapeutic interventions.
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  • 文章类型: Published Erratum
    [这更正了文章DOI:10.3389/fgene.202.970900。].
    [This corrects the article DOI: 10.3389/fgene.2022.970900.].
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    这项研究引入了一种新的预后工具,二硫化物掺杂相关lncRNA指数(DRLI),整合二硫化物掺杂和长链非编码RNA(lncRNAs)的分子特征与肿瘤微环境的细胞异质性,预测透明细胞肾细胞癌(ccRCC)患者的临床结局。
    我们分析了来自癌症基因组图谱(TCGA)的530个肿瘤和72个正常样本,采用基于二硫化物相关基因表达的k-means聚类将ccRCC样本分为预后组。与二硫化物掺杂相关的lncRNAs被鉴定并用于构建DRLI,通过Kaplan-Meier和受试者工作特性曲线进行了验证。我们利用单细胞去卷积分析来估计肿瘤微环境中免疫细胞类型的比例。而ESTIMATE和TIDE算法用于评估免疫浸润和对免疫疗法的潜在反应。
    二硫化物掺杂剂相关的lncRNA指数(DRLI)有效地将ccRCC患者分为高危组和低危组,显着影响生存结局(P<0.001)。高危患者,以与二硫化物掺杂相关的独特lncRNA谱为标志,面临更糟糕的预后。单细胞分析显示明显的肿瘤微环境异质性,尤其是在免疫细胞组成中,与患者风险水平相关。在预后预测中,DRLI优于传统临床指标,在1年内实现0.779、0.757和0.779的AUC值,3年,和训练中的5年生存率,以及验证集中的0.746、0.734和0.750。值得注意的是,而构建的列线图显示出对短期预后的出色预测能力(AUC=0.877),DRLI显示出显著的长期预测准确性,其10年生存率的AUC值达到0.823,紧密接近列线图的表现。
    该研究介绍了DRLI作为ccRCC的开创性分子分层工具,提高预后的准确性和潜在的指导个性化治疗策略。这种进步在长期生存预测的背景下尤其重要。我们的发现还阐明了二硫化物之间复杂的相互作用,lncRNAs,和ccRCC中的免疫微环境,对其发病机制和进展提供了全面的视角。DRLI和列线图共同代表了ccRCC研究的重大进展,强调基于分子的评估在预测患者预后中的重要性。
    UNASSIGNED: This study introduces a novel prognostic tool, the Disulfidoptosis-Related lncRNA Index (DRLI), integrating the molecular signatures of disulfidoptosis and long non-coding RNAs (lncRNAs) with the cellular heterogeneity of the tumor microenvironment, to predict clinical outcomes in patients with clear cell renal cell carcinoma (ccRCC).
    UNASSIGNED: We analyzed 530 tumor and 72 normal samples from The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA), employing k-means clustering based on disulfidoptosis-associated gene expression to stratify ccRCC samples into prognostic groups. lncRNAs correlated with disulfidoptosis were identified and used to construct the DRLI, which was validated by Kaplan-Meier and receiver operating characteristic curves. We utilized single-cell deconvolution analysis to estimate the proportion of immune cell types within the tumor microenvironment, while the ESTIMATE and TIDE algorithms were employed to assess immune infiltration and potential response to immunotherapy.
    UNASSIGNED: The Disulfidoptosis-Related lncRNA Index (DRLI) effectively stratified ccRCC patients into high and low-risk groups, significantly impacting survival outcomes (P < 0.001). High-risk patients, marked by a unique lncRNA profile associated with disulfidoptosis, faced worse prognoses. Single-cell analysis revealed marked tumor microenvironment heterogeneity, especially in immune cell makeup, correlating with patient risk levels. In prognostic predictions, DRLI outperformed traditional clinical indicators, achieving AUC values of 0.779, 0.757, and 0.779 for 1-year, 3-year, and 5-year survival in the training set, and 0.746, 0.734, and 0.750 in the validation set. Notably, while the constructed nomogram showed exceptional predictive capability for short-term prognosis (AUC = 0.877), the DRLI displayed remarkable long-term predictive accuracy, with its AUC value reaching 0.823 for 10-year survival, closely approaching the nomogram\'s performance.
    UNASSIGNED: The study introduces the DRLI as a groundbreaking molecular stratification tool for ccRCC, enhancing prognostic precision and potentially guiding personalized treatment strategies. This advancement is particularly significant in the context of long-term survival predictions. Our findings also elucidate the complex interplay between disulfidoptosis, lncRNAs, and the immune microenvironment in ccRCC, offering a comprehensive perspective on its pathogenesis and progression. The DRLI and the nomogram together represent significant strides in ccRCC research, highlighting the importance of molecular-based assessments in predicting patient outcomes.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    急性髓系白血病(AML)是一种侵袭性恶性肿瘤,其特点是治疗方面的挑战,包括耐药性和频繁复发。最近的研究强调了肿瘤微环境(TME)在协助肿瘤细胞免疫逃逸和促进肿瘤侵袭性方面的关键作用。本研究探讨了AML和TME之间的相互作用。通过对潜在驱动基因的探索,我们构建了AML预后指数(AMLPI).跨平台数据和多维内部和外部验证证实,AMLPI在接收器工作特性曲线下的面积方面优于现有模型,一致性指标值,净收益。AML患者的高AMLPI表明预后不良。免疫分析显示,高AMLPI样本显示HLA家族基因和免疫检查点基因(包括PD1和CTLA4)的表达更高,伴随着较低的T细胞浸润和较高的巨噬细胞浸润。遗传变异分析显示,高AMLPI样本与不良变异事件有关,包括TP53突变,继发性NPM1共突变,和拷贝数删除。生物学解释表明ALDH2和SPATS2L显著有助于AML患者的生存,它们的异常表达与cg12142865和cg11912272的DNA甲基化相关。药物反应分析表明,不同的AMLPI样本往往具有不同的临床选择,低AMLPI样本更有可能从免疫疗法中受益。最后,为了更广泛地获取我们的发现,建立了一个用户友好且可公开访问的网络服务器,可在http://bioinfor获得。imu.edu.cn/amlpi.该服务器提供工具,包括与TME相关的AML驱动程序基因挖掘,AMLPI建筑,多维验证,AML患者风险评估,和数字绘图。
    Acute myeloid leukemia (AML) is an aggressive malignancy characterized by challenges in treatment, including drug resistance and frequent relapse. Recent research highlights the crucial roles of tumor microenvironment (TME) in assisting tumor cell immune escape and promoting tumor aggressiveness. This study delves into the interplay between AML and TME. Through the exploration of potential driver genes, we constructed an AML prognostic index (AMLPI). Cross-platform data and multi-dimensional internal and external validations confirmed that the AMLPI outperforms existing models in terms of areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves, concordance index values, and net benefits. High AMLPIs in AML patients were indicative of unfavorable prognostic outcomes. Immune analyses revealed that the high-AMLPI samples exhibit higher expression of HLA-family genes and immune checkpoint genes (including PD1 and CTLA4), along with lower T cell infiltration and higher macrophage infiltration. Genetic variation analyses revealed that the high-AMLPI samples associate with adverse variation events, including TP53 mutations, secondary NPM1 co-mutations, and copy number deletions. Biological interpretation indicated that ALDH2 and SPATS2L contribute significantly to AML patient survival, and their abnormal expression correlates with DNA methylation at cg12142865 and cg11912272. Drug response analyses revealed that different AMLPI samples tend to have different clinical selections, with low-AMLPI samples being more likely to benefit from immunotherapy. Finally, to facilitate broader access to our findings, a user-friendly and publicly accessible webserver was established and available at http://bioinfor.imu.edu.cn/amlpi. This server provides tools including TME-related AML driver genes mining, AMLPI construction, multi-dimensional validations, AML patients risk assessment, and figures drawing.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    本研究旨在探讨外周血指标与晚期食管鳞状细胞癌(ESCC)患者行卡瑞珠单抗治疗的疗效和预后之间的关系。
    我们回顾性分析了2020年7月至2022年6月在连云港市第二人民医院接受camrelizumab治疗晚期ESCC的64例患者。该研究包括中性粒细胞与淋巴细胞比率(NLR)的检查,血小板与淋巴细胞比率(PLR),全身炎症指数(SII),淋巴与单核细胞的比率(LMR),绝对淋巴细胞计数(ALC),和乳酸脱氢酶(LDH)。我们使用多因素logistic回归分析来探讨外周血与治疗效果之间存在的联系。使用Cox回归分析确定无进展生存期(PFS)和总生存期(OS)的潜在预后因素。基于Cox多变量分析的结果建立了列线图模型。根据治疗前LDH和LDL水平的降低将患者分为三组,比较3组的Kaplan-Meier生存曲线,绘制LDH联合PLR的ROC曲线。
    较低的LDH(OR=6.237,95%CI:1.625-23.944)与疾病控制率(DCR)独立相关。LDH与PFS独立相关(HR:0.22795%CI:0.099-0.517)。LDH和PLR独立地与OS连接。列线图模型的C指数为0.819,表明预测性能良好。Kaplan-Meier生存曲线提示治疗前LDH和PLR降低的患者OS较好。ROC曲线下面积显示,LDH指数与PLR指数联合预测患者生存率优于单独指标。
    LDH联合PLR可预测接受卡利珠单抗治疗的ESCC患者的预后。
    UNASSIGNED: This study aimed to investigate the relationship between peripheral blood indices and the efficacy and prognosis of advanced esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) patients treated with camrelizumab.
    UNASSIGNED: We retrospectively analyzed 64 patients who received camrelizumab for advanced ESCC at the Second People\'s Hospital of Lianyungang City between July 2020 and June 2022. The study included examination of the neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), the platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio (PLR), the systemic inflammation index (SII), the lymph-to-monocytes ratio (LMR), the absolute lymphocyte count (ALC), and lactate dehydrogenase (LDH). We used multivariate logistic regression analysis to explore the link existing between peripheral blood and the efficacy of treatment. Determination of potential prognostic factors for Progression-free survival (PFS) and Overall survival (OS) using Cox regression analysis. The nomogram model was developed based on the results of the Cox multivariate analysis. Patients were divided into three groups according to the reduction in LDH and LDL levels before treatment, and the Kaplan-Meier survival curves for the three groups were compared and ROC curves for LDH combined with PLR were plotted.
    UNASSIGNED: Lower LDH (OR=6.237, 95% CI: 1.625-23.944) were independently associated with disease control rates(DCR). LDH was independently correlated with PFS (HR: 0.227 95% CI: 0.099-0.517). LDH and PLR were independently linked to OS. The C index of the nomogram model is 0.819, indicating good predictive performance. Kaplan-Meier Survival Curve suggested better OS in patients with reduced pretreatment LDH and PLR. The area under the ROC curve showed that the LDH index combined with the PLR index predicts patient survival better than the index alone.
    UNASSIGNED: LDH combined with PLR predicted prognosis in patients with ESCC treated with camrelizumab.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    构建有效的预后指标,以预测接受铂类和氟尿嘧啶类化疗的晚期胃癌(AGC)患者的总生存期(OS)和三联方案疗效。
    在2011年至2021年之间,纳入了来自两项随机III期试验和一项II期试验的679名患者。
    我们收集了11个基线临床病理参数和14个血液学参数以建立预后指标。
    单变量和多变量Cox分析用于筛选预后因素,并进行了预后指标列线图。
    确定了七个预后因素:非近端胃区域的原发肿瘤部位,印戒细胞癌(SRCC)/粘液性癌,腹膜转移,中性粒细胞计数高于正常值上限(ULN),淋巴细胞计数低于正常值的下限,乳酸脱氢酶水平高于ULN,碱性磷酸酶水平高于ULN对预后有重要意义。构建预后列线图,命名为复旦晚期胃癌预后风险评分(FARS)指数,高危组患者的OS明显短于低危组患者(中位OS,15.5与8.0个月,p<0.001)。FARS指数曲线下的面积为1-,2-,3年OS分别为0.70、0.72和0.77。验证和外部队列验证了FARS指数的预后价值。此外,确定了三个三联方案的疗效参数:SRCC/黏液腺癌,原发肿瘤位于非近端胃区,和外周中性粒细胞计数高于ULN;随后进行了TRIS指数。在具有三个参数中的任何两个的患者中,三联方案的OS明显长于双联方案(p=0.018).
    构建的预测AGC患者OS的FARS指数和筛选三联疗法优势人群的TRIS指数可用于辅助临床决策和个体风险分层。
    局部晚期和转移性胃癌的预后指标迄今为止,尚未建立晚期胃癌(AGC)公认的系统预后评分.我们的研究旨在构建一个有效的预后指标来预测AGC患者的总生存期(OS),以帮助临床决策和个人风险分层。在我们的研究中,确定了七个预后因素:非近端胃区域的原发肿瘤部位,印戒细胞癌(SRCC)/粘液性癌,腹膜转移,中性粒细胞计数高于正常值上限(ULN),淋巴细胞计数低于正常值的下限,乳酸脱氢酶水平高于ULN,碱性磷酸酶水平高于ULN对预后有重要意义。构建了一个名为复旦晚期胃癌预后风险评分(FARS)指数的预后指标,高危组患者的OS明显短于低危组患者(中位OS,15.5个月vs.8.0个月,P<0.001)。此外,确定了三个三联方案的疗效参数:SRCC/黏液腺癌,原发肿瘤位于非近端胃区,和外周中性粒细胞计数高于ULN;随后进行了TRIS指数。在具有三个参数中的任何两个的患者中,三联方案的OS明显长于双联方案(P=0.018).
    UNASSIGNED: To construct an effective prognostic index to predict overall survival (OS) and triplet regimen efficacy for advanced gastric cancer (AGC) patients treated with platinum-based and fluorouracil-based chemotherapy.
    UNASSIGNED: Between 2011 and 2021, 679 patients from two randomized phase III trials and one phase II trial were enrolled.
    UNASSIGNED: We collected 11 baseline clinicopathological and 14 hematological parameters to establish a prognostic index.
    UNASSIGNED: Univariate and multivariate Cox analyses were used to screen prognostic factors, and a prognostic index nomogram was conducted.
    UNASSIGNED: Seven prognostic factors were identified: primary tumor site in the non-proximal gastric area, signet-ring cell carcinoma (SRCC)/mucinous carcinoma, peritoneal metastasis, neutrophil count higher than the upper limit of normal value (ULN), lymphocyte count lower than the lower limit of normal value, lactate dehydrogenase level higher than the ULN, and alkaline phosphatase level higher than the ULN as significant for prognosis. A prognostic nomogram named the Fudan advanced gastric cancer prognostic risk score (FARS) index was constructed, and patients in the high-risk group had significantly shorter OS than those in the low-risk group (median OS, 15.5 versus 8.0 months, p < 0.001). The areas under the curve of the FARS index for 1-, 2-, and 3-year OS were 0.70, 0.72, and 0.77, respectively. A validation and external cohort verified the prognostic value of the FARS index. Moreover, three triplet regimen efficacy parameters were identified: SRCC/mucinous adenocarcinoma, primary tumor location in the non-proximal gastric area, and peripheral neutrophil count higher than the ULN; a TRIS index was subsequently conducted. In patients with any two of the three parameters, the triplet regimen showed significantly longer OS than the doublet regimen (p = 0.018).
    UNASSIGNED: The constructed FARS index to predict the OS of AGC patients and the TRIS index to screen out the dominant population for triplet regimens can be used to aid clinical decision-making and individual risk stratification.
    A prognostic index in locally advanced and metastatic gastric cancer To date, no recognized systematic prognostic score has been established for advanced gastric cancer (AGC). Our research aims to construct an effective prognostic index to predict overall survival (OS) for AGC patients to aid clinical decision-making and individual risk stratification. In our research, seven prognostic factors were identified: primary tumor site in the non-proximal gastric area, signet-ring cell carcinoma (SRCC)/mucinous carcinoma, peritoneal metastasis, neutrophil count higher than the upper limit of normal value (ULN), lymphocyte count lower than the lower limit of normal value, lactate dehydrogenase level higher than the ULN, and alkaline phosphatase level higher than the ULN as significant for prognosis. A prognostic index named the Fudan advanced gastric cancer prognostic risk score (FARS) index was constructed, and patients in the high-risk group had significantly shorter OS than those in low-risk group (median OS, 15.5 months vs. 8.0 months, P < 0.001). Moreover, three triplet regimen efficacy parameters were identified: SRCC/mucinous adenocarcinoma, primary tumor location in the non-proximal gastric area, and peripheral neutrophil count higher than the ULN; a TRIS index was subsequently conducted. In patients with any two of the three parameters, the triplet regimen showed significantly longer OS than the doublet regimen (P = 0.018).
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    背景与目的:脂肪肝代谢功能障碍(MAFLD)是一个新的概念提出,以取代以前的非酒精性肝脂肪变性(NAFLD)的概念。我们开发并内部验证了预测MAFLD患者队列死亡可能性的预后模型。方法:我们的工作包括两个步骤:第一个是构建用于死亡风险预后的自举多变量Cox模型,第二个是其验证。结果:研究队列包括1506名受试者,其中907项用于内部验证。最终模型的判别措施在开发中为R2D0.6845和Harrell的C0.8422,在验证中为R2D0.6930和Harrell的C0.8465。我们使用了通过LASSOCox程序选择的9个独立预后因素,并通过BootstrapCox生存模型拟合,观察到的β为:性别0.3561.42(p<0.008),年龄0.146(p<0.001),血糖0.004(p<0.002),总胆固醇-0.0040(p<0.009),γ谷氨酰转肽酶0.009(p<0.001),SBP0.009(p<0.036),DBP-0.016(p<0.041),ALP0.008(p<0.071)和寡妇0.550(p<0.001)。结论:我们建立并验证了一个模型来估计MAFLD患者的死亡概率。我们使用的仪器显示出令人满意的预测能力。
    Background & Aims: Fatty liver disease with metabolic dysfunction (MAFLD) is a new concept proposed to replace the previous concept of Non-Alcoholic Hepatic Steatosis (NAFLD). We developed and internally validated a prognostic model to predict the likelihood of death in a cohort of subjects with MAFLD. Methods: Our work involved two steps: the first was the construction of a bootstrapped multivariable Cox model for mortality risk prognosis and the second was its validation. Results: The study cohort included 1506 subjects, of which 907 were used for internal validation. Discriminant measures for the final model were R2D 0.6845 and Harrell\'s C 0.8422 in the development and R2D 0.6930 and Harrell\'s C 0.8465 in the validation. We used the nine independent prognostic factors selected by the LASSO Cox procedure and fitted by the bootstrap Cox survival model, and observed β were: Gender 0.356 1.42 (p < 0.008), Age 0.146 (p < 0.001), Glycemia 0.004 (p < 0.002), Total Cholesterol -0.0040 (p < 0.009), Gamma Glutamyl Transpeptidase 0.009 (p < 0.001), SBP 0.009 (p < 0.036), DBP -0.016 (p < 0.041), ALP 0.008 (p < 0.071) and Widowhood 0.550 (p < 0.001). Conclusions: We produced and validated a model to estimate the probability of death in subjects with MAFLD. The instruments we used showed satisfactory predictive capabilities.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    背景:造血干细胞移植(HSCT)是一种高发病率和高死亡率的方法。确定患者以获得最大利益和风险评估在决策过程中至关重要。这导致了成人HSCT预测风险模型的发展,应用于儿科人群时具有局限性。我们的目标是开发一种自动学习算法,以预测接受HSCT的恶性疾病儿童的生存率。
    方法:我们研究了1991年至2021年在三级医院对患有恶性疾病的儿童进行的同种异体HSCT。使用Kaplan-Meier方法分析生存率,单变量分析的对数秩检验,和Cox回归进行多变量分析。基于这些发现构建了预后指标。最后,我们使用随机森林算法构建了一个预测模型来预测HSCT后1年的生存率。
    结果:我们分析了201例患者的229例HSCT,中位随访时间为1.64年。影响多变量分析的变量是年龄较大(风险比[HR]1.40,95%置信区间[CI]1.12-1.76,p=.003),HSCT最老期(HR0.46,95%CI0.29-0.73,p<.001),和错配供体(HR2.65,95%CI1.51-4.65,p=.001)。我们的预后指数与3年总生存率相关(OS;p<.001)。使用以下变量开发了随机森林:诊断,年龄,HSCT年,从诊断到HSCT的时间,疾病阶段,供体类型,和调理。这在预测1年OS方面实现了72%的准确率。
    结论:我们的指数和随机森林在预测1年生存率方面是有效的。然而,在不同人群中进一步验证是必要的,以建立他们的普遍性。
    BACKGROUND: Hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT) is a procedure with high morbidity and mortality. Identifying patients for maximum benefit and risk assessment is crucial in the decision-making process. This has led to the development of predictive risk models for HSCT in adults, which have limitations when applied to pediatric population. Our goal was to develop an automatic learning algorithm to predict survival in children with malignant disorders undergoing HSCT.
    METHODS: We studied allogenic HSCTs performed on children with malignant disorders at a third-level hospital between 1991 and 2021. Survival was analyzed using the Kaplan-Meier method, log-rank test for the univariate analysis, and Cox regression for the multivariate analysis. A prognostic index was constructed based on these findings. Lastly, we constructed a predictive model using a random forest algorithm to forecast 1-year survival after HSCT.
    RESULTS: We analyzed 229 HSCTs in 201 patients with a median follow-up of 1.64 years. Variables that impacted on the multivariate analysis were older age (hazard ratio [HR] 1.40, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.12-1.76, p = .003), oldest period of HSCT (HR 0.46, 95% CI 0.29-0.73, p < .001), and mismatched donor (HR 2.65, 95% CI 1.51-4.65, p = .001). Our prognostic index was associated with 3-year overall survival (OS; p < .001). A random forest was developed using as variables: diagnosis, age, year of HSCT, time from diagnosis to HSCT, disease stage, donor type, and conditioning. This achieved 72% accuracy in predicting 1-year OS.
    CONCLUSIONS: Our index and random forest was effective in predicting 1-year survival. However, further validation in diverse populations is necessary to establish their generalizability.
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