目的:估计患病率,新南威尔士州(NSW)按性别和年龄组划分的未观察到的阿片类药物依赖人数,澳大利亚。
方法:我们将贝叶斯统计建模方法应用于与不良事件发生率数据相关的阿片类药物激动剂治疗记录。我们分别估计了三种不良事件的患病率:阿片类药物死亡率,阿片类药物中毒住院治疗和阿片类药物相关费用。我们扩展了模型,并根据所有三种类型的不良事件数据从“多源”模型中得出了患病率估计值。
■这项研究是在新南威尔士州进行的,澳大利亚,2014-16年使用阿片类激动剂治疗和安全性(OATS)研究的数据,其中包括所有在新南威尔士州接受过阿片类药物依赖治疗的人.获得了新南威尔士州不良事件数量的汇总数据。对OATS队列中每种不良事件类型的发生率进行建模。人口数据由国家和英联邦机构提供。
结果:2016年15-64岁人群中阿片类药物依赖的患病率估计为0.96%(95%可信区间[CrI]=0.82%,1.12%)来自死亡率模型,0.75%(95%CrI=0.70%,0.83%)住院,0.95%(95%CrI=0.90%,0.99%)来自收费和0.92%(95%CrI=0.88%,0.96%)来自多源模型。在多源模型中,2016年估计有46460人(95%CrI=44680,48410)患有阿片类药物依赖的人中,近1/3(16750,95%CrI=14960,18690)在过去4年内没有阿片类药物激动剂治疗记录.从多源模型中,2016年的患病率估计为1.24%(95%CrI=1.18%,1.31%)在15-44岁的男性中,1.22%(95%CrI=1.14%,1.31%)男性45-64岁,0.63%(95%CrI=0.59%,0.68%)在15-44岁的女性和0.56%(95%CrI=0.50%,0.63%)在45-64岁的女性中。
结论:一种贝叶斯统计方法来估计多种不良事件类型的患病率,同时计算出新南威尔士州阿片类药物依赖的估计患病率,2016年澳大利亚为0.92%,高于以前的估计。
To estimate the prevalence of, and number of unobserved people with opioid dependence by sex and age group in New South Wales (NSW), Australia.
We applied a Bayesian statistical modelling approach to opioid agonist treatment records linked to adverse event rate data. We estimated prevalence from three types of adverse event separately: opioid mortality, opioid-poisoning hospitalizations and opioid-related charges. We extended the model and produced prevalence estimates from a \'multi-source\' model based on all three types of adverse event data.
This study was conducted in NSW, Australia, 2014-16 using data from the Opioid Agonist Treatment and Safety (OATS) study, which included all people who had received treatment for opioid dependence in NSW. Aggregate data were obtained on numbers of adverse events in NSW. Rates of each adverse event type within the OATS cohort were modelled. Population data were provided by State and Commonwealth agencies.
Prevalence of opioid dependence among those aged 15-64 years in 2016 was estimated to be 0.96% (95% credible interval [CrI] = 0.82%, 1.12%) from the mortality model, 0.75% (95% CrI = 0.70%, 0.83%) from hospitalizations, 0.95% (95% CrI = 0.90%, 0.99%) from charges and 0.92% (95% CrI = 0.88%, 0.96%) from the multi-source model. Of the estimated 46 460 (95% CrI = 44 680, 48 410) people with opioid dependence in 2016 from the multi-source model, approximately one-third (16 750, 95% CrI = 14 960, 18 690) had no record of opioid agonist treatment within the last 4 years. From the multi-source model, prevalence in 2016 was estimated to be 1.24% (95% CrI = 1.18%, 1.31%) in men aged 15-44, 1.22% (95% CrI = 1.14%, 1.31%) in men 45-64, 0.63% (95% CrI = 0.59%, 0.68%) in women aged 15-44 and 0.56% (95% CrI = 0.50%, 0.63%) in women aged 45-64.
A Bayesian statistical approach to estimate prevalence from multiple adverse event types simultaneously calculates that the estimated prevalence of opioid dependence in NSW, Australia in 2016 was 0.92%, higher than previous estimates.