UNASSIGNED: Fructose-1,6-bisphosphatase deficiency (FBP1D) is a rare inborn error due to mutations in the FBP1 gene. The genetic spectrum of FBP1D in China is unknown, also nonspecific manifestations confuse disease diagnosis. We systematically estimated the FBP1D prevalence in Chinese and explored genotype-phenotype association.
UNASSIGNED: We collected 101 FBP1 variants from our cohort and public resources, and manually curated pathogenicity of these variants. Ninety-seven pathogenic or likely pathogenic variants were used in our cohort to estimate Chinese FBP1D prevalence by three methods: 1) carrier frequency, 2) permutation and combination, 3) Bayesian framework. Allele frequencies (AFs) of these variants in our cohort, China Metabolic Analytics Project (ChinaMAP) and gnomAD were compared to reveal the different hotspots in Chinese and other populations. Clinical and genetic information of 122 FBP1D patients from our cohort and published literature were collected to analyze the genotype-phenotypes association. Phenotypes of 68 hereditary fructose intolerance (HFI) patients from our previous study were used to compare the phenotypic differences between these two fructose metabolism diseases.
UNASSIGNED: The estimated Chinese FBP1D prevalence was 1/1,310,034. In the Chinese population, c.490G>A and c.355G>A had significantly higher AFs than in the non-Finland European population, and c.841G>A had significantly lower AF value than in the South Asian population (all p values < 0.05). The genotype-phenotype association analyses showed that patients carrying homozygous c.841G>A were more likely to present increased urinary glycerol, carrying two CNVs (especially homozygous exon1 deletion) were often with hepatic steatosis, carrying compound heterozygous variants were usually with lethargy, and carrying homozygous variants were usually with ketosis and hepatic steatosis (all p values < 0.05). By comparing to phenotypes of HFI patients, FBP1D patients were more likely to present hypoglycemia, metabolic acidosis, and seizures (all p-value < 0.05).
UNASSIGNED: The prevalence of FBP1D in the Chinese population is extremely low. Genetic sequencing could effectively help to diagnose FBP1D.

OBJECTIVE: Drug-related deaths in Scotland more than doubled between 2011 and 2020. To inform policymakers and understand drivers of this increase, we estimated the number of people with opioid dependence aged 15-64 from 2014/15 to 2019/20.
METHODS: We fitted a Bayesian multi-parameter estimation of prevalence (MPEP) model, using adverse event rates to estimate prevalence of opioid dependence jointly from Opioid Agonist Therapy (OAT), opioid-related mortality and hospital admissions data. Estimates are stratified by age group, sex and year.
METHODS: Scotland, 2014/15 to 2019/20.
METHODS: People with opioid dependence and potential to benefit from OAT, whether ever treated or not. Using data from the Scottish Public Health Drug Linkage Programme, we identified a baseline cohort of individuals who had received OAT within the last 5 years, and all opioid-related deaths and hospital admissions (whether among or outside of this cohort).
METHODS: Rates of each adverse event type and (unobserved) prevalence were jointly modelled.
RESULTS: The estimated number and prevalence of people with opioid dependence in Scotland in 2019/20 was 47 100 (95% Credible Interval [CrI] 45 700 to 48 600) and 1.32% (95% CrI 1.28% to 1.37%). Of these, 61% received OAT during 2019/20. Prevalence in Greater Glasgow and Clyde was estimated as 1.77% (95% CrI 1.69% to 1.85%). There was weak evidence that overall prevalence fell slightly from 2014/15 (change -0.07%, 95% CrI -0.14% to 0.00%). The population of people with opioid dependence is ageing, with the estimated number of people aged 15-34 reducing by 5100 (95% CrI 3800 to 6400) and number aged 50-64 increasing by 2800 (95% CrI 2100 to 3500) between 2014/15 and 2019/20.
CONCLUSIONS: The prevalence of opioid dependence in Scotland remained high but was relatively stable, with only weak evidence of a small reduction, between 2014/15 and 2019/20. Increased numbers of opioid-related deaths can be attributed to increased risk among people with opioid dependence, rather than increasing prevalence.

Primary carnitine deficiency (PCD) caused by pathogenic variants in the solute carrier family 22 member 5 (SLC22A5) gene is a rare autosomal recessive disease that results in defective fatty acid oxidation. PCD can be detected through tandem mass spectrometry (MS/MS), but transplacental transport of free carnitine from mothers may cause false negatives or positives during newborn screening (NBS). This study aimed to analyze the genetic characteristics of SLC22A5 and estimate the prevalence of PCD in the Chinese population, providing useful information for NBS and genetic counseling. We manually curated SLC22A5 pathogenic or likely pathogenic (P/LP) variants according to the American College of Medical Genetics and Genomics (ACMG) guidelines and identified 128 P/LP variants. Based on the China Neonatal Genomes Project (CNGP), the estimated PCD prevalence was 1:17,456, which was higher than that in other populations. The genotype-phenotype association analysis showed that patients carrying homozygous c.760C>T and c.844C>T were more likely to present cardiomyopathy, whereas those carrying homozygous c.1400C>G were more likely to be asymptomatic (all p-values < 0.05). We found that there was no significant difference in initial C0 concentrations between patients and carriers, but there was a significant difference in the second-tier screening of C0 concentration between them (p-value < 0.05). We established a cost-effective variant panel containing 10 high-frequency sites and developed a screening algorithm incorporating gene panels with MS/MS, which could rescue one more patient who was undetected from MS/MS. In conclusion, the prevalence of PCD in the Chinese population is relatively high. The combination of conventional NBS with genetic sequencing is suggested for early diagnosis of PCD.

The capture-recapture method is a common tool used in epidemiology to estimate the size of \"hidden\" populations and correct the underascertainment of cases, based on incomplete and overlapping lists of the target population. Log-linear models are often used to estimate the population size yet may produce implausible and unreliable estimates due to model misspecification and small cell sizes. A novel targeted minimum loss-based estimation (TMLE) model developed for capture-recapture makes several notable improvements to conventional modeling: \"targeting\" the parameter of interest, flexibly fitting the data to alternative functional forms, and limiting bias from small cell sizes. Using simulations and empirical data from the San Francisco, California, Department of Public Health\'s human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) surveillance registry, we evaluated the performance of the TMLE model and compared results with those of other common models. Based on 2,584 people observed on 3 lists reportable to the surveillance registry, the TMLE model estimated the number of San Francisco residents living with HIV as of December 31, 2019, to be 13,523 (95% confidence interval: 12,222, 14,824). This estimate, compared with a \"ground truth\" of 12,507, was the most accurate and precise of all models examined. The TMLE model is a significant advancement in capture-recapture studies, leveraging modern statistical methods to improve estimation of the sizes of hidden populations.

To estimate the prevalence of, and number of unobserved people with opioid dependence by sex and age group in New South Wales (NSW), Australia.
We applied a Bayesian statistical modelling approach to opioid agonist treatment records linked to adverse event rate data. We estimated prevalence from three types of adverse event separately: opioid mortality, opioid-poisoning hospitalizations and opioid-related charges. We extended the model and produced prevalence estimates from a \'multi-source\' model based on all three types of adverse event data.
This study was conducted in NSW, Australia, 2014-16 using data from the Opioid Agonist Treatment and Safety (OATS) study, which included all people who had received treatment for opioid dependence in NSW. Aggregate data were obtained on numbers of adverse events in NSW. Rates of each adverse event type within the OATS cohort were modelled. Population data were provided by State and Commonwealth agencies.
Prevalence of opioid dependence among those aged 15-64 years in 2016 was estimated to be 0.96% (95% credible interval [CrI] = 0.82%, 1.12%) from the mortality model, 0.75% (95% CrI = 0.70%, 0.83%) from hospitalizations, 0.95% (95% CrI = 0.90%, 0.99%) from charges and 0.92% (95% CrI = 0.88%, 0.96%) from the multi-source model. Of the estimated 46 460 (95% CrI = 44 680, 48 410) people with opioid dependence in 2016 from the multi-source model, approximately one-third (16 750, 95% CrI = 14 960, 18 690) had no record of opioid agonist treatment within the last 4 years. From the multi-source model, prevalence in 2016 was estimated to be 1.24% (95% CrI = 1.18%, 1.31%) in men aged 15-44, 1.22% (95% CrI = 1.14%, 1.31%) in men 45-64, 0.63% (95% CrI = 0.59%, 0.68%) in women aged 15-44 and 0.56% (95% CrI = 0.50%, 0.63%) in women aged 45-64.
A Bayesian statistical approach to estimate prevalence from multiple adverse event types simultaneously calculates that the estimated prevalence of opioid dependence in NSW, Australia in 2016 was 0.92%, higher than previous estimates.

Missing diagnoses are common in cross-sectional studies of dementia, and this missingness is usually related to whether the respondent has dementia or not. Failure to properly address this issue can lead to underestimation of prevalence. To obtain accurate prevalence estimates, we propose different estimation methods within the framework of propensity score stratification (PSS), which can significantly reduce the negative impact of non-response on prevalence estimates.
To obtain accurate estimates of dementia prevalence, we calculated the propensity score (PS) of each participant to be a non-responder using logistic regression with demographic information, cognitive tests and physical function variables as covariates. We then divided all participants into five equal-sized strata based on their PS. The stratum-specific prevalence of dementia was estimated using simple estimation (SE), regression estimation (RE), and regression estimation with multiple imputation (REMI). These stratum-specific estimates were integrated to obtain an overall estimate of dementia prevalence.
The estimated prevalence of dementia using SE, RE, and REMI with PSS was 12.24%, 12.28%, and 12.20%, respectively. These estimates showed higher consistency than the estimates obtained without PSS, which were 11.64%, 12.33%, and 11.98%, respectively. Furthermore, considering only the observed diagnoses, the prevalence in the same group was found to be 9.95%, which is significantly lower than the prevalence estimated by our proposed method. This suggested that prevalence estimates obtained without properly accounting for missing data might underestimate the true prevalence.
Estimating the prevalence of dementia using the PSS provides a more robust and less biased estimate.

An accurate multiclass classification strategy is crucial to interpreting antibody tests. However, traditional methods based on confidence intervals or receiver operating characteristics lack clear extensions to settings with more than two classes. We address this problem by developing a multiclass classification based on probabilistic modeling and optimal decision theory that minimizes the convex combination of false classification rates. The classification process is challenging when the relative fraction of the population in each class, or generalized prevalence, is unknown. Thus, we also develop a method for estimating the generalized prevalence of test data that is independent of classification of the test data. We validate our approach on serological data with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) naïve, previously infected, and vaccinated classes. Synthetic data are used to demonstrate that (i) prevalence estimates are unbiased and converge to true values and (ii) our procedure applies to arbitrary measurement dimensions. In contrast to the binary problem, the multiclass setting offers wide-reaching utility as the most general framework and provides new insight into prevalence estimation best practices.

We develop parametric estimators of a conditional prevalence in the group testing context. Group testing is applied when a binary outcome variable, often a disease indicator, is assessed by testing a specimen for the presence of the disease. Instead of testing all individual specimens separately, these are pooled in groups and the grouped specimens are tested for the disease, which permits to significantly reduce the number of tests to be performed. Various techniques have been developed in the literature for estimating a conditional prevalence from group testing data, but most of them are not valid when the data are subject to missingness. We consider this problem in the case where the specimen and the covariates are subject to nonmonotone missingness. We propose parametric estimators of the conditional prevalence, establish identifiability conditions for a logistic missing not at random model, and introduce an ignorable missing at random model. In theory, our estimators could be applied with multiple covariates missing, but in practice, they face numerical challenges when more than one covariate is missing for given individuals. We illustrate the method on simulated data and on a dataset from the Demographics and Health Survey.

The role of immunological responses to exposed bacteria on disease incidence is increasingly under investigation. With many bacterial species, and many potential antibody reactions to a particular species, the large number of assays required for this type of discovery can make it prohibitively expensive. We propose a two-phase group testing design to more efficiently screen numerous antibody effects in a case-control setting.
Phase 1 uses group testing to select antibodies that are differentially expressed between cases and controls. The selected antibodies go on to Phase 2 individual testing.
We evaluate the two-phase group testing design through simulations and example data and find that it substantially reduces the number of assays required relative to standard case-control and group testing designs, while maintaining similar statistical properties.
The proposed two-phase group testing design can dramatically reduce the number of assays required, while providing comparable results to a case-control design.

Serology testing can identify past infection by quantifying the immune response of an infected individual providing important public health guidance. Individual immune responses are time-dependent, which is reflected in antibody measurements. Moreover, the probability of obtaining a particular measurement from a random sample changes due to changing prevalence (i.e., seroprevalence, or fraction of individuals exhibiting an immune response) of the disease in the population. Taking into account these personal and population-level effects, we develop a mathematical model that suggests a natural adaptive scheme for estimating prevalence as a function of time. We then combine the estimated prevalence with optimal decision theory to develop a time-dependent probabilistic classification scheme that minimizes the error associated with classifying a value as positive (history of infection) or negative (no such history) on a given day since the start of the pandemic. We validate this analysis by using a combination of real-world and synthetic SARS-CoV-2 data and discuss the type of longitudinal studies needed to execute this scheme in real-world settings.