在这次审查中,我们相继提出了对已报告和未报告的COVID-19病例的演变进行现象学建模的方法,无论是在指数增长阶段,还是在完整的流行浪潮中。在孤立的波浪之后,我们介绍了由地方性固定周期分开的几个连续波的模型。然后,我们处理没有或具有年龄结构的多隔室模型的情况。最终,我们回顾了文献,根据11个章节中选出的260篇文章,从医院病例的医学调查到预测一般人群中新病例的动态。这篇评论在选择参考文献时倾向于现象学方法而不是机械方法,并模拟了10个州观察到的COVID-19病例数的演变(加利福尼亚州,中国,法国,印度,以色列,Japan,纽约,秘鲁,西班牙和联合王国)。
In this review, we successively present the methods for phenomenological modeling of the evolution of reported and unreported cases of COVID-19, both in the exponential phase of growth and then in a complete epidemic wave. After the case of an isolated wave, we present the modeling of several successive waves separated by endemic stationary periods. Then, we treat the case of multi-compartmental models without or with age structure. Eventually, we review the literature, based on 260 articles selected in 11 sections, ranging from the medical survey of hospital cases to forecasting the dynamics of new cases in the general population. This review favors the phenomenological approach over the mechanistic approach in the choice of references and provides simulations of the evolution of the number of observed cases of COVID-19 for 10 states (California, China, France, India, Israel, Japan, New York, Peru, Spain and United Kingdom).