背景:2022年禽流感(AI)病毒检测频繁发生,并继续构成健康,经济,和粮食安全风险。近十年前发布了有关动物暴发和人类感染所有可报告的AI病毒的官方报告的最新全球分析。增加或更新AI病毒的报告,尤其是高致病性H5N8和H5N1在鸟类和人类中的H5N1,H5N8和H5N6,已经确定有必要对当前的全球AI病毒监视数据进行全面审查,以评估AI病毒的大流行风险。
目的:本研究旨在通过描述循环病毒亚型,对过去十年来的全球AI动物暴发和人类病例监测信息进行分析。报告的区域和时间趋势,以及与动物中AI病毒暴发报告相关的国家特征;确定了动物和人类的监测和报告差距。
方法:我们分析了2013年1月至2022年6月提交给动物和公共卫生当局的动物和人的AI病毒感染报告,并与2005年1月至2012年12月的报告进行了比较。多变量回归分析用于评估感兴趣的变量与报告的AI病毒动物暴发之间的关联。
结果:从2013年到2022年,52.2%(95/182)的世界动物卫生组织(WOAH)成员国在21,249次爆发中发现了34种AI病毒亚型。最常报道的亚型是高致病性AIH5N1(10,079/21,249,47.43%)和H5N8(6722/21,249,31.63%)。2013-2022年,首次向WOAH报告了10种高致病性AI和6种低致病性AI病毒亚型。与过去8年相比,在26个成员国中发生了动物中的AI疫情。世界银行收入分类的下降与报告的AI爆发的减少显着相关(P<.001-.02)。在2013年1月至2022年6月期间,17/194(8.8%)世界卫生组织(WHO)会员国报告了10种病毒亚型的2000例人类AI病毒感染。H7N9(1568/2000,78.40%)和H5N1(254/2000,12.70%)病毒占人类感染的最多。这17个会员国中有多达8个在2013年之前没有报告人类病例。在1953年有可用信息的人类病例中,74.81%(n=1461)在发病前已知动物暴露。从发病到世卫组织事件信息网站上发布通知的中位时间为15天(IQR9-30天;平均24天)。动物暴发和人类感染AI病毒的季节性模式非常相似,全年发生,并在11月至5月期间达到顶峰。
结论:我们的分析表明,与过去相比,AI爆发的报告频率更高,在地理上也更广泛。全球监测差距包括所有区域的报告不一致以及人类感染报告延误。持续监测AI病毒在动物和人类感染AI病毒中的爆发对于防范大流行至关重要。
Avian influenza (AI) virus detections occurred frequently in 2022 and continue to pose a health, economic, and food security risk. The most recent global analysis of official reports of animal outbreaks and human infections with all reportable AI viruses was published almost a decade ago. Increased or renewed reports of AI viruses, especially high pathogenicity H5N8 and H5N1 in birds and H5N1, H5N8, and H5N6 in humans globally, have established the need for a comprehensive review of current global AI virus surveillance data to assess the pandemic risk of AI viruses.
This study aims to provide an analysis of global AI animal outbreak and human case surveillance information from the last decade by describing the circulating virus subtypes, regions and temporal trends in reporting, and country characteristics associated with AI virus outbreak reporting in animals; surveillance and reporting gaps for animals and humans are identified.
We analyzed AI virus infection reports among animals and humans submitted to animal and public health authorities from January 2013 to June 2022 and compared them with reports from January 2005 to December 2012. A multivariable regression analysis was used to evaluate associations between variables of interest and reported AI virus animal outbreaks.
From 2013 to 2022, 52.2% (95/182) of World Organisation for Animal Health (WOAH) Member Countries identified 34 AI virus subtypes during 21,249 outbreaks. The most frequently reported subtypes were high pathogenicity AI H5N1 (10,079/21,249, 47.43%) and H5N8 (6722/21,249, 31.63%). A total of 10 high pathogenicity AI and 6 low pathogenicity AI virus subtypes were reported to the WOAH for the first time during 2013-2022. AI outbreaks in animals occurred in 26 more Member Countries than reported in the previous 8 years. Decreasing World Bank income classification was significantly associated with decreases in reported AI outbreaks (P<.001-.02). Between January 2013 and June 2022, 17/194 (8.8%) World Health Organization (WHO) Member States reported 2000 human AI virus infections of 10 virus subtypes. H7N9 (1568/2000, 78.40%) and H5N1 (254/2000, 12.70%) viruses accounted for the most human infections. As many as 8 of these 17 Member States did not report a human case prior to 2013. Of 1953 human cases with available information, 74.81% (n=1461) had a known animal exposure before onset of illness. The median time from illness onset to the notification posted on the WHO event information site was 15 days (IQR 9-30 days; mean 24 days). Seasonality patterns of animal outbreaks and human infections with AI viruses were very similar, occurred year-round, and peaked during November through May.
Our analysis suggests that AI outbreaks are more frequently reported and geographically widespread than in the past. Global surveillance gaps include inconsistent reporting from all regions and human infection reporting delays. Continued monitoring for AI virus outbreaks in animals and human infections with AI viruses is crucial for pandemic preparedness.