背景:住院时间(LOS)是评估住院患者管理的重要指标。本研究旨在探讨影响2型糖尿病(T2DM)住院患者LOS的因素,并建立早期识别长期LOS的预测模型。
方法:对83,776名T2DM患者进行了一项为期13年的多中心回顾性研究,以开发和验证长期LOS的临床预测工具。采用最小绝对收缩和选择算子回归模型和多变量logistic回归分析,建立了长期LOS的风险模型,并取了列线图来可视化模型。此外,接收机工作特性曲线,校正曲线,并采用决策曲线分析和临床影响曲线分别验证判别,校准,模型的临床适用性。
结果:结果显示年龄,脑梗塞,抗高血压药物的使用,抗血小板和抗凝剂的使用,既往手术史,既往病史,吸烟,饮酒,中性粒细胞百分比与白蛋白比与延长的LOS密切相关。训练中列线图的曲线值下面积,内部验证,外部验证集1和外部验证集2为0.803(95%CI[置信区间]0.799-0.808),0.794(95%CI0.788-0.800),0.754(95%CI0.739-0.770),和0.743(95%CI0.722-0.763),分别。校准曲线表明列线图具有强校准性。此外,决策曲线分析,临床影响曲线显示,列线图具有良好的临床实用价值。此外,在线界面(https://cytjt007.shinyapps.io/extended_los/)是为用户提供方便的访问而开发的。
结论:总而言之,该模型可以预测住院2型糖尿病患者可能延长的LOS,帮助临床医生提高病床管理的效率.
Length of stay (LOS) is an important metric for evaluating the management of inpatients. This study aimed to explore the factors impacting the LOS of inpatients with type-2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) and develop a predictive model for the early identification of inpatients with prolonged LOS.
A 13-year multicenter retrospective study was conducted on 83,776 patients with T2DM to develop and validate a clinical predictive tool for prolonged LOS. Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression model and multivariable logistic regression analysis were adopted to build the risk model for prolonged LOS, and a nomogram was taken to visualize the model. Furthermore, receiver operating characteristic curves, calibration curves, and decision curve analysis and clinical impact curves were used to respectively validate the discrimination, calibration, and clinical applicability of the model.
The result showed that age, cerebral infarction, antihypertensive drug use, antiplatelet and anticoagulant use, past surgical history, past medical history, smoking, drinking, and neutrophil percentage-to-albumin ratio were closely related to the prolonged LOS. Area under the curve values of the nomogram in the training, internal validation, external validation set 1, and external validation set 2 were 0.803 (95% CI [confidence interval] 0.799-0.808), 0.794 (95% CI 0.788-0.800), 0.754 (95% CI 0.739-0.770), and 0.743 (95% CI 0.722-0.763), respectively. The calibration curves indicated that the nomogram had a strong calibration. Besides, decision curve analysis, and clinical impact curves exhibited that the nomogram had favorable clinical practical value. Besides, an online interface ( https://cytjt007.shinyapps.io/prolonged_los/ ) was developed to provide convenient access for users.
In sum, the proposed model could predict the possible prolonged LOS of inpatients with T2DM and help the clinicians to improve efficiency in bed management.