目的:评估非静脉曲张性上消化道出血(NVUGIB)患者发生急性脑梗死(ACI)的危险因素。并构建NVUGIB患者ACI预测模型。
方法:对2019年1月至2021年12月南昌大学附属赣州医院急诊科和消化内科诊断为NVUGIB的1282例患者进行回顾性研究,建立NVUGIB诱发ACI的预测模型。绘制受试者工作特征(ROC)曲线以评估模型和CHA2DS2-VASc评分预测ACI的敏感性和特异性。Delong检验用于比较当前评分和CHA2DS2-VASc评分的AUC。
结果:有1282名患者参加了这项研究,其中ACI组69例,非ACI组1213例。多因素分析显示,高血压,糖尿病,红细胞(RBC)输血,机械通气,D-二聚体,速率压力产品(RPP),生长抑素和平均血小板体积(MPV)是NVUGIB诱发ACI的相关因素。建立了基于八个因素的模型,Logit(P)=0.265+1.382×1+1.120×2+1.769×3+0.839×4-1.549×5-0.361×6+0.045×7+1.158×8(或1.069×9)(X1,高血压=1;X2,糖尿病=1;X3,RBC输血=1;X4,机械通气=1;X5,生长抑素=1;X6,Xl,R模型ROC曲线下面积为0.873,敏感性为0.768,特异性为0.887。CHA2DS2-VASc评分的ROC曲线下面积为0.792,敏感性和特异性分别为0.728和0.716。Delong检验显示本研究的ROC曲线下面积明显大于CHA2DS2-VASc评分。
结论:高血压,糖尿病,红细胞输血,机械通气,D-二聚体,RPP,生长抑素和MPV是NVUGIB诱导ACI的相关因素。基于这些因素构建的模型显示出优异的ACI预测,并且优于CHA2DS2-VASc评分。然而,这需要通过具有更大样本量的多中心研究进一步验证.
To evaluate the risk factors for acute cerebral infarction(ACI) in patients with non-variceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding(NVUGIB), and construct a model for predicting ACI in NVUGIB patients.
A model for predicting ACI induced by NVUGIB was established on the basis of a retrospective study that involved 1282 patients who were diagnosed with NVUGIB in the emergency department and Gastroenterology Department of Nanchang University Affiliated Ganzhou Hospital from January 2019 to December 2021. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were drawn to evaluate the sensitivity and specificity of the model and CHA2DS2-VASc score to predict ACI. Delong\'s test was used to compare AUCs of the present score and the CHA2DS2-VASc score.
There were 1282 patients enrolled in the study, including 69 in the ACI group and 1213 in the non-ACI group. Multivariate analysis revealed that hypertension, diabetes, red blood cell (RBC) transfusion, mechanical ventilation, D-dimer, rate pressure product (RPP), somatostatin and mean platelet volume (MPV) were factors associated with ACI induced by NVUGIB. A model based on the eight factors was established, Logit(P)= 0.265 + 1.382 × 1 + 1.120 × 2 + 1.769 × 3 + 0.839 × 4-1.549 × 5-0.361 × 6 + 0.045 × 7 + 1.158 × 8(or 1.069 ×9) (X1, hypertension=1; X2, diabetes=1; X3, RBC transfusion=1; X4, mechanical ventilation=1; X5, somatostatin=1; X6, MPV(fL); X7, D-dimer(ng/l); X8, low RPP= 1; X9, high RPP = 2). The area under ROC curve of the model was 0.873, the sensitivity and specificity were 0.768 and 0.887, respectively. The area under ROC curve of CHA2DS2-VASc score was 0.792, the sensitivity and specificity were 0.728 and 0.716, respectively. Delong\'s test showed the area under ROC curve of the present study was significantly larger than that of CHA2DS2-VASc score.
Hypertension, diabetes, RBC transfusion, mechanical ventilation, D-dimer, RPP, somatostatin and MPV were factors associated with ACI induced by NVUGIB. A model constructed based on these factors showed excellent prediction of ACI, and was superior to CHA2DS2-VASc score. However, this needs to be further validated by multi-center study with a larger sample size.