multinomial logistic regression

多项 logistic 回归
  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    肝细胞癌(HCC)是全球癌症死亡的主要原因之一。并对HCC的发展阶段进行分类有助于早期预后和治疗。本研究旨在探讨HCC进展的诊断和预后分子特征,包括肿瘤的发生和生长,并根据基因表达水平对其发育阶段进行分类。我们整合了两个癌症系统的数据,包括78例Edmondson-Steiner(ES)级患者和417例TNM分期癌症患者。使用识别的签名进行功能分析。使用多项逻辑回归模型(MLR),我们对控制进行了分类,早期肝癌,和晚期肝癌。该模型在三个独立的队列中进行了验证,包括45名患者(肿瘤期),394名患者(ES级),466例患者(TNM分期)。多因素Cox回归用于HCC预后预测。我们确定了35个基因逐渐上调或下调的ES级和TNM期患者在肝癌进展期间。这些基因参与细胞分裂,染色体分离,和有丝分裂胞质分裂,通过有丝分裂细胞周期促进肿瘤细胞增殖。MLR模型准确区分控制,早期肝癌,和多个癌症系统的晚期肝癌,这在各个独立队列中得到了进一步验证。生存分析显示,来自TNM阶段的五个基因的子集(HR:3.27,p<0.0001)和来自ES等级的三个基因(HR:7.56,p<0.0001)与HCC预后显着相关。鉴定的分子特征不仅启动肿瘤发生,而且促进HCC的发展。它有可能改善临床诊断,预后,和肝癌的治疗干预措施。这项研究增强了我们对HCC进展的理解,并为精准医学方法提供了有价值的见解。
    Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is one of the leading causes of cancer death worldwide, and classifying the developmental stages of HCC can help with early prognosis and treatment. This study aimed to investigate diagnostic and prognostic molecular signatures underlying the progression of HCC, including tumor initiation and growth, and to classify its developmental stages based on gene expression levels. We integrated data from two cancer systems, including 78 patients with Edmondson-Steiner (ES) grade and 417 patients with TNM stage cancer. Functional profiling was performed using identified signatures. Using a multinomial logistic regression model (MLR), we classified controls, early-stage HCC, and advanced-stage HCC. The model was validated in three independent cohorts comprising 45 patients (neoplastic stage), 394 patients (ES grade), and 466 patients (TNM stage). Multivariate Cox regression was employed for HCC prognosis prediction. We identified 35 genes with gradual upregulation or downregulation in both ES grade and TNM stage patients during HCC progression. These genes are involved in cell division, chromosome segregation, and mitotic cytokinesis, promoting tumor cell proliferation through the mitotic cell cycle. The MLR model accurately differentiated controls, early-stage HCC, and advanced-stage HCC across multiple cancer systems, which was further validated in various independent cohorts. Survival analysis revealed a subset of five genes from TNM stage (HR: 3.27, p < 0.0001) and three genes from ES grade (HR: 7.56, p < 0.0001) that showed significant association with HCC prognosis. The identified molecular signature not only initiates tumorigenesis but also promotes HCC development. It has the potential to improve clinical diagnosis, prognosis, and therapeutic interventions for HCC. This study enhances our understanding of HCC progression and provides valuable insights for precision medicine approaches.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    背景:先前的研究表明,心理压力与个体如何看待自己的年龄之间存在潜在的联系。建立在这个基础上,本研究探讨了负面情绪与自我感知年龄之间的关系。
    方法:我们使用英国生物库的数据进行了横截面分析,一项代表英国人口的综合队列研究。分析包括347892名参与者,年龄在39至73岁之间,其中184765名是女性,占样本的53.1%。参与者根据他们的自我感知年龄分为三组:感觉比他们的实际年龄年轻(组年轻),感觉比他们的实际年龄大(组老年),感觉和他们的实际年龄一样老(组相同)。探讨负性情绪与自我感知年龄的关系,我们使用多项逻辑回归模型,以Younger组作为参考类别.
    结果:在347892名参与者中,在调整协变量后,结果显示,易怒的参与者,紧张的感觉,忧虑/焦虑的感觉或厌倦的感觉,担心太久,孤独/孤立更有可能被评为“关于你的年龄”或“比你年龄大”,\"与\"比你年轻\"作为参考组,这表明负面情绪可能会影响一个人的自我感知年龄。在这些负面情绪中,易怒对自我感知年龄的影响最大,比值比(OR)为1.44(95%CI:1.35-1.54)和1.11(95%CI:1.09-1.14)。
    结论:负面情绪与自我感知的年龄有关,烦躁的影响最大。需要进一步研究分析自我感知年龄,以考虑心理因素。
    BACKGROUND: Prior research has indicated a potential connection between psychological stress and how individuals perceive their own age. Building on this foundation, the current study explores the relationship between negative emotions and self-perceived age.
    METHODS: We conducted a cross-sectional analysis using data from the UK Biobank, a comprehensive cohort study representing the UK population. The analysis included 347 892 participants, aged between 39 and 73 years, of which 184 765 were women, accounting for 53.1% of the sample. Participants were categorized into three groups based on their self-perceived age: feeling younger than their chronological age (group Younger), feeling older than their chronological age (group Older), and feeling as old as their actual age (group Same). To investigate the relationship between negative emotions and self-perceived age, we utilized a multinomial logistic regression model with the Younger group serving as the reference category.
    RESULTS: Of 347 892 participants, after adjusted for covariates, the results showed that participants with irritability, nervous feelings, worrier/anxious feelings or fed-up feelings, worry too long and loneliness/isolation are more likely to be rated as \"about your age\" or \"older than you are,\" with \"younger than you are\" as the reference group, indicating that negative emotions may influence one\'s self-perceived age. Among those negative emotions, irritability has the most significant impact self-perceived age, with the odds ratios (ORs) being 1.44 (95% CI: 1.35-1.54) and 1.11 (95% CI: 1.09-1.14).
    CONCLUSIONS: Negative emotions are associated with older self-perceived age, and irritability has the greatest impact. Further studies analyzing self-perceived age are needed to take psychological factors into consideration.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    目标:当感兴趣的主要结果具有两个以上类别时,多类别预测模型(MPM)可用于医疗保健。MPM的应用很少,可能是由于与二元结果模型相比增加了方法论的复杂性。我们提供了如何发展的指南,验证,并更新基于多项逻辑回归的临床预测模型。
    方法:我们根据最近的方法学文献提出指导和建议,先前开发和验证的MPM对类风湿关节炎的治疗结果进行了说明。可以为名义结果开发使用多项逻辑回归的预测模型,而且是顺序结果。本文旨在补充现有预测模型研究的一般指导。
    结果:本指南分为三个部分:1)结果定义和变量选择,2)模型开发,和3)模型评估(包括绩效评估,内部和外部验证,和模型重新校准)。我们概述了如何评估和解释MPM的预测性能。提供了R代码。
    结论:我们建议将MPM应用于对多分类结局的预测感兴趣的临床环境中。未来的方法学研究可以集中在MPM特定的变量选择考虑因素和外部验证的样本量标准上。
    OBJECTIVE: Multicategory prediction models (MPMs) can be used in health care when the primary outcome of interest has more than two categories. The application of MPMs is scarce, possibly due to added methodological complexities compared to binary outcome models. We provide a guide of how to develop, validate, and update clinical prediction models based on multinomial logistic regression.
    METHODS: We present guidance and recommendations based on recent methodological literature, illustrated by a previously developed and validated MPM for treatment outcomes in rheumatoid arthritis. Prediction models using multinomial logistic regression can be developed for nominal outcomes, but also for ordinal outcomes. This article is intended to supplement existing general guidance on prediction model research.
    RESULTS: This guide is split into three parts: 1) outcome definition and variable selection, 2) model development, and 3) model evaluation (including performance assessment, internal and external validation, and model recalibration). We outline how to evaluate and interpret the predictive performance of MPMs. R code is provided.
    CONCLUSIONS: We recommend the application of MPMs in clinical settings where the prediction of a multicategory outcome is of interest. Future methodological research could focus on MPM-specific considerations for variable selection and sample size criteria for external validation.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    向低碳经济的过渡强调了绿色和低碳消费的重要性;然而,消费者的意图和他们对有机食品的实际行为之间往往存在差异。本研究旨在确定弥合这一差距的策略。构建有机食品消费意愿与行为研究模型,以广东省480名居民为有效样本,通过在线问卷调查,采用结构方程模型对研究假设进行检验。Further,定义了意图-行为差距,并通过多类逻辑回归研究了其决定因素。最后,我们使用机器学习算法对消费意图和行为之间的一致性进行分类和预测。结果表明,态度,社交互动,认知信息在使意图与行为保持一致方面起着至关重要的作用。通过加强社会信息交流或提高认知理解,消费者可以减少他们的意图行为差异。本研究从多个角度为促进居民绿色消费提供了有价值的政策建议。
    The transition to a low-carbon economy emphasizes the importance of green and low-carbon consumption; yet, there is often a discrepancy between consumers\' intentions and their actual behavior regarding organic foods. This study aims to identify strategies to bridge this gap. The research model of organic food consumption intention and behavior is constructed, and a structural equation model is used to test the research hypotheses based on a valid sample of 480 residents of Guangdong Province through an online questionnaire survey. Further, the intention‒behavior gap is defined and its determinants are investigated through multiclass logistic regression. Finally, we categorize and forecast the alignment between consumption intentions and behaviors using machine learning algorithms. The results reveal that attitudes, social interactions, and cognitive information play crucial roles in aligning intentions with behaviors. By enhancing social information exchange or improving cognitive understanding, consumers can reduce their intention‒behavior discrepancy. This research offers valuable policy recommendations for fostering green consumption among residents from various perspectives.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    碰撞是年轻新手驾驶员受伤和死亡的重要原因。使用真实的崩溃数据,本研究通过综合不同的驾驶员属性和碰撞情景,进一步探讨了年轻新手驾驶员碰撞伤害风险的多面性和复杂性,以更新和验证先前的研究结果,并为预防措施提供更可行的建议。
    从中国国家汽车事故深度调查系统(NAIS)中提取了有关年轻新手驾驶员交通事故的详细数据,并采用随机森林和多项logit建模框架的混合研究方法,探讨和研究了松江区年轻新手驾驶员对交通事故伤害的重要影响,上海,在2018年至2022年期间。
    研究结果表明,人类,车辆,道路和环境特征贡献了36.83%,22.65%,对新手驾驶员碰撞伤害水平的预测分别为17.07%和23.45%。在各种单一因素中,驾驶员疏忽是影响新手驾驶员碰撞伤害水平的最重要因素。车辆的年龄,碰撞位置,道路信号状况和碰撞时间都对年轻新手司机的碰撞伤害水平(置信水平的95%)有显著影响。
    该研究全面分析了年轻新手驾驶员的撞车数据,以揭示不同背景下年轻新手驾驶员面临的撞车伤害风险及其严重程度,并建议有针对性的安全改进。与以往的研究结果有异同,其中对了解年轻新手司机在白天和夜间的驾驶风险有新的贡献。
    UNASSIGNED: Collisions are a significant cause of injury and fatality among young novice drivers. Using real crash data, this study further explores the multifaceted and complex nature of young novice drivers\' crash injury risk by synthesizing different driver attributes and crash scenarios in order to update and validate previous research findings and provide more feasible recommendations for preventive measures.
    UNASSIGNED: Detailed data on traffic crash of young novice drivers were extracted from the National Automobile Accident In-Depth Investigation System (NAIS) in China, and a mixed research methodology using a Random Forest and multinomial logit modeling framework was used in order to explore and study the important influences on traffic crash injuries of young novice drivers in Songjiang District, Shanghai, during the period from 2018 to 2022.
    UNASSIGNED: The results of the study showed that human, vehicle, road and environmental characteristics contributed 36.83%, 22.65%, 17.07% and 23.45% respectively to the prediction of crash injury level of novice drivers. Among the various single factors, driver negligence was the most important factor affecting the crash injury level of novice drivers. Age of the vehicle, crash location, road signal condition and time of crash all had a significant effect on the crash injury level of young novice drivers (95% of the confidence level).
    UNASSIGNED: The study comprehensively analyzed young novice driver crash data to reveal the crash injury risk and its severity faced by young novice drivers in different contexts, and suggested targeted safety improvements. There are similarities and differences with the results of previous studies, in which there are new contributions to understanding the driving risks of young novice drivers in daytime and nighttime.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    清醒开颅手术是治疗语言雄辩性神经胶质瘤的标准护理。然而,根据术前功能,这在每个患者中是不可行的,并且选择标准是高度异质的.因此,本研究旨在确定广泛适用的预测变量,以便更系统和客观地选择患者.
    我们对术前语言状态进行了事后分析,2018年05月至2021年01月在一家神经外科中心接受治疗的96例胶质瘤患者的患者和肿瘤特征,包括语言口才。应用多项逻辑回归和逐步变量选择来确定清醒手术可行性的重要预测因素。
    逐步向后选择证实了更多的失语症,年龄较低,高语言口才水平是我们队列中清醒手术的合适指标.随后的描述性和ROC分析表明,清醒手术的截止时间≤54岁,语言口才水平至少为6,这需要进一步验证。语言口才很高,年龄较低,先前存在的语义和语音失语症状已被证明是合适的预测因子。
    这些因素的组合可以作为清醒开颅手术患者适合性的系统和标准化分级的基础,这很容易整合到神经外科中心的术前工作流程中。
    UNASSIGNED: Awake craniotomy is the standard of care for treating language eloquent gliomas. However, depending on preoperative functionality, it is not feasible in each patient and selection criteria are highly heterogeneous. Thus, this study aimed to identify broadly applicable predictor variables allowing for a more systematic and objective patient selection.
    UNASSIGNED: We performed post-hoc analyses of preoperative language status, patient and tumor characteristics including language eloquence of 96 glioma patients treated in a single neurosurgical center between 05/2018 and 01/2021. Multinomial logistic regression and stepwise variable selection were applied to identify significant predictors of awake surgery feasibility.
    UNASSIGNED: Stepwise backward selection confirmed that a higher number of paraphasias, lower age, and high language eloquence level were suitable indicators for an awake surgery in our cohort. Subsequent descriptive and ROC-analyses indicated a cut-off at ≤54 years and a language eloquence level of at least 6 for awake surgeries, which require further validation. A high language eloquence, lower age, preexisting semantic and phonological aphasic symptoms have shown to be suitable predictors.
    UNASSIGNED: The combination of these factors may act as a basis for a systematic and standardized grading of patients\' suitability for an awake craniotomy which is easily integrable into the preoperative workflow across neurosurgical centers.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    国际发展议程强调普及计划生育,如可持续发展目标3.7所示。然而,发展中国家现代避孕方法的使用率仍然很低,特别是在西非。这项研究旨在评估该地区避孕药具的使用现状,专注于不同的方法。
    我们分析了来自13个西非国家(2012-2022年)的人口和健康调查数据,涉及117,165名已婚妇女。使用二元和多元多项逻辑回归,我们确定了与避孕药具使用相关的关键因素.使用95%置信区间的调整后优势比,二元回归在p≤0.2时确定显著性,多元回归在p<0.05时确定显著性。
    大约80.86%的女性没有使用任何方法,而16.56%的女性使用现代方法。产妇年龄35-49岁(RRR=0.77,95%CI,0.72,0.82),20年后第一次分娩(RRR=0.80,95%CI,0.77,0.83),20岁后同居(RRR=1.24,95%CI,1.18,1.29),被雇用(RRR=1.38,95%CI,1.33,1.43),有3-5个孩子和5个以上孩子的女性(RRR=2.06,95%CI,1.97,2.16,和(RRR=2.57,95%CI,2.42,2.74),主要(RRR=1.59,95%CI,1.52,1.66),中等/高等教育(RRR=2.08,95%CI,1.99,2.18),产前访视(RRR=1.38,95%CI1.28,1.49),机构交付(AOR=1.42,95%CI,1.35,1.49),丈夫工作状况(RRR=1.39,95%CI,1.28,1.51),培养基暴露(RRR=1.23,95%CI,1.19,1.28),多次访问医疗机构(RRR=1.09,95%CI,1.05,1.13),农村妇女(RRR=0.89,95%CI,0.85,0.93),女性家庭(RRR=0.79,95%CI,0.76,0.83),更富有(RRR=1.42,95%CI,1.33,1.51),和最富有的财富指数(RRR=1.69,95%CI,1.58,1.82)相关。
    这项研究显示,西非妇女使用避孕药具的水平较低。加强孕产妇生殖健康服务,例如产前护理,机构交付,和健康访问,同时也针对大众媒体和处境不利的妇女,有可能大大增加现代避孕技术的采用。
    UNASSIGNED: The international development agenda emphasizes universal access to family planning, as seen in Sustainable Development Goal 3.7. However, the use of modern contraceptive methods remains low in developing countries, specifically in West Africa. This study aimed to assess the current status of contraceptive use in the region, focusing on different methods.
    UNASSIGNED: We analyzed Demographic and Health Survey data from 13 West African nations (2012-2022) involving 117,165 married women. Using binary and multiple multinomial logistic regression, we identified key factors associated with contraceptive use. Adjusted odds ratios with 95% confidence intervals were utilized, and significance was determined at p ≤ 0.2 for binary regression and p < 0.05 for multiple multinomial regression.
    UNASSIGNED: About 80.86% of women did not use any method, while 16.56% of women used modern methods. Maternal age of 35-49 years (RRR=0.77, 95% CI, 0.72,0.82), had given first birth after 20 years (RRR=0.80,95% CI, 0.77,0.83), cohabitation after 20 years old (RRR=1.24,95% CI, 1.18,1.29), being employed (RRR=1.38,95% CI, 1.33,1.43), women who have from 3-5, and more than five living children (RRR=2.06,95% CI,1.97,2.16, and (RRR=2.57, 95% CI, 2.42,2.74), primary(RRR=1.59, 95% CI, 1.52,1.66), secondary/higher education (RRR=2.08, 95% CI, 1.99,2.18), antenatal visit (RRR= 1.38, 95% CI 1.28,1.49), institutional delivery(AOR=1.42, 95% CI, 1.35,1.49), husband working status (RRR=1.39, 95% CI, 1.28,1.51), media exposure(RRR=1.23, 95% CI, 1.19,1.28), visited health facility more than once (RRR=1.09, 95% CI, 1.05,1.13), rural women (RRR=0.89,95% CI,0.85,0.93), female households (RRR=0.79, 95% CI,0.76,0.83), richer (RRR=1.42, 95% CI,1.33,1.51), and richest wealth indexes (RRR=1.69,95% CI,1.58,1.82) were associated.
    UNASSIGNED: This study revealed a low level of contraceptive use among women in West Africa. Strengthening maternal reproductive health services, such as antenatal care, institutional delivery, and health visits, while also targeting mass media and disadvantaged women, has the potential to significantly increase the adoption of modern contraception techniques.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    疟疾预防和控制是包括印度在内的热带国家的主要公共卫生问题。杀虫剂处理过的蚊帐的使用,特别是在高风险地区的早期治疗是家庭预防疟疾的关键因素。本研究旨在确定与家庭预防疟疾相关的关键因素,如家庭特征,教育,知识和意识,杀虫剂处理过的蚊帐使用,早期治疗等。
    1989年家庭的数据来自阿萨姆邦疟疾流行地区的横断面调查。主成分分析和多项logistic回归模型用于计算疟疾意识和预防实践的综合得分。并估计与疟疾预防实践相关的因素,分别。
    家庭受访者的平均年龄为41.1±12.0岁,其中71%为男性。几乎47%的受访者是文盲,38.6%的受访者是农民,35%的受访者就业。多项logistic回归分析表明,疟疾预防措施与年龄有关,教育,宗教,户主的住房类型和职业以及他们对疟疾的认识水平。预防措施与疟疾知晓率高和知晓率低的情况显著相关[调整比率(ARR):5.0,95%CI:2.7-9.4]。总的来说,预防意识的水平,教育,职业,与生活水平相关的房屋类型与疟疾预防做法显著相关。
    疟疾意识和教育是疟疾预防实践的关键因素,需要加快有效控制疟疾。疟疾教育和提高人们的认识对疟疾预防做法及其控制产生了很大影响。
    UNASSIGNED: Malaria prevention and control is a major public health problem of tropical countries including India. Usage of insecticide-treated bed nets, and early treatment especially in high-risk areas are the crucial factors for the malaria prevention at household levels. This study aimed to determine the crucial factors associated with malaria prevention at households\' level such as household\'s characteristics, education, knowledge and awareness, insecticide treated bed nets usage, early treatment etc.
    UNASSIGNED: Data of 1989 households was used from the cross-sectional survey of malaria-endemic areas of Assam. Principal component analysis and multinomial logistic regression model were used to compute the composite scores of malaria awareness and prevention practices, and to estimate the associated factors with malaria prevention practices, respectively.
    UNASSIGNED: The average age of household respondents were 41.1 ± 12.0 years and among them 71% were males. Almost 47% respondents were illiterate, and 38.6% of the respondents were farmers and 35% were employed. Multinomial logistic regression analysis indicates that malaria prevention practices are associated with age, education, religion, type of house and occupation of household heads and their level of malaria awareness among them. The prevention practices were significantly five times associated [Adjusted Rates Ratio (ARR): 5.0, 95% CI: 2.7-9.4] with the high level of malaria awareness compared with the low level of awareness. Overall, the level of prevention awareness, education, occupation, and house type related to the standard of living was significantly associated with the malaria prevention practices.
    UNASSIGNED: Malaria awareness and education are the key factors of malaria prevention practices that need to be accelerated for effective control of malaria. Malaria education and increasing awareness of people have a high impact on malaria prevention practices and their control.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    迫切需要了解高危人群的疫苗决策。这项研究探讨了糖尿病儿童的约旦父母对流感疫苗的接受程度。采用横截面方法,通过分层抽样招募了来自约旦多个医疗中心的405名父母,确保社会经济背景的广泛代表性。结构化问卷,亲自和在线分发,评估他们的知识,态度,以及接受糖尿病儿童的流感疫苗。结果表明,只有6.4%的研究样本报告说他们的孩子每年接种流感疫苗,只有23%的人计划今年给他们的孩子接种疫苗。多项逻辑回归分析显示,反应存在显着变异性。具体来说,对流感疫苗持积极态度的父母和年龄较大的孩子拒绝疫苗的可能性较小(OR=0.589,95%CI(0.518-0.670),p<0.001,OR=0.846,95%CI(0.736-0.974),分别为p=0.02)。相反,关于疫苗安全性和有效性的普遍误解成为接受的重大障碍.我们的发现提倡有针对性的教育计划,直接解决和揭穿这些特定的误解。此外,加强医疗沟通,提供明确的,关于流感疫苗的安全性和益处的一致信息对于帮助提高这些脆弱人群的疫苗摄入量至关重要,强调需要直接解决具体问题和错误信息。
    There is a critical need to understand vaccine decision-making in high-risk groups. This study explored flu vaccine acceptance among Jordanian parents of diabetic children. Employing a cross-sectional approach, 405 parents from multiple healthcare centers across Jordan were recruited through stratified sampling, ensuring a broad representation of socioeconomic backgrounds. A structured questionnaire, distributed both in-person and online, evaluated their knowledge, attitudes, and acceptance of the flu vaccine for their diabetic children. The results indicated that only 6.4% of the study sample reported vaccinating their children against the flu annually, and only 23% are planning to vaccinate their children this year. A multinomial logistic regression analysis revealed notable variability in responses. Specifically, parents with a positive attitude towards the flu vaccine and those with older children had less odds to reject the vaccine (OR = 0.589, 95% CI (0.518-0.670), p < 0.001 and OR = 0.846, 95% CI (0.736-0.974), p = 0.02, respectively). Conversely, prevalent misconceptions regarding vaccine safety and efficacy emerged as significant barriers to acceptance. Our findings advocate for targeted educational programs that directly address and debunk these specific misconceptions. Additionally, strengthened healthcare communication to provide clear, consistent information about the flu vaccine\'s safety and benefits is vital to help enhance vaccine uptake among this vulnerable population, emphasizing the need to address specific concerns and misinformation directly.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    目标:中更新世(MP)见证了人类新物种的出现:非洲的智人,H.尼安德特人,可能还有欧亚大陆的丹尼索瓦人,他们最近的共同祖先被认为大约在600卡前生活在非洲。然而,从这一时期至今,人类仍然存在广泛的形态变异,因此很难确定其分类学归属和在人类属中的系统发育位置。这项研究建议重新考虑MP人类化石之间的物候关系,以阐明它们所代表的种群之间的进化趋势和联系。
    方法:我们使用几何形态计量学方法来量化来自非洲和欧亚大陆的有争议的MP标本的颅骨的形态变化,方法是使用可分为5组的比较样本:H.ergaster,H.直立人,H.尼安德特人,和H.智人,以及来自当前现代人群的个体。我们进行了广义Procrustes分析,主成分分析,和多项主成分Logistic回归来确定有争议的中更新世标本与其他组的物候亲和力。
    结果:MP非洲和欧亚标本代表了几个种群,其中一些与欧洲的尼安德特人或非洲的智人有很强的亲和力,其他人表现出多重亲和力。
    结论:这些MP种群可能以不同的比例促成了这两个物种的出现。这项研究为MP期间的人类进化史提出了新的框架。
    The Middle Pleistocene (MP) saw the emergence of new species of hominins: Homo sapiens in Africa, H. neanderthalensis, and possibly Denisovans in Eurasia, whose most recent common ancestor is thought to have lived in Africa around 600 ka ago. However, hominin remains from this period present a wide range of morphological variation making it difficult to securely determine their taxonomic attribution and their phylogenetic position within the Homo genus. This study proposes to reconsider the phenetic relationships between MP hominin fossils in order to clarify evolutionary trends and contacts between the populations they represent.
    We used a Geometric Morphometrics approach to quantify the morphological variation of the calvarium of controversial MP specimens from Africa and Eurasia by using a comparative sample that can be divided into 5 groups: H. ergaster, H. erectus, H. neanderthalensis, and H. sapiens, as well as individuals from current modern human populations. We performed a Generalized Procrustes Analysis, a Principal Component Analysis, and Multinomial Principal Component Logistic Regressions to determine the phenetic affinities of the controversial Middle Pleistocene specimens with the other groups.
    MP African and Eurasian specimens represent several populations, some of which show strong affinities with H. neanderthalensis in Europe or H. sapiens in Africa, others presenting multiple affinities.
    These MP populations might have contributed to the emergence of these two species in different proportions. This study proposes a new framework for the human evolutionary history during the MP.
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