背景:癌症筛查试验需要大的样本量和长的时间范围来证明癌症死亡率降低,癌症筛查的主要目标。我们检查了从测试控制臂标本中利用信息的假设和潜在的功率增益,我们称之为“预期效应”(IE)分析,我们在这里详细解释。IE分析特别适用于可以对控制臂中存储的标本进行的测试,例如用于多癌症检测(MCD)测试的储存血液。
方法:我们模拟了假设的MCD筛选试验,以比较标准与IE分析的功效和样本量。在我们在这里详述的两个假设下,我们预测了3项现有筛查试验的IE分析(国家肺部筛查试验(NLST),明尼苏达州结肠癌控制研究(MINN-FOBT-A),前列腺,肺,结肠直肠,卵巢癌筛查试验-结肠直肠成分(PLCO-CRC))。
结果:与现有3项试验的标准分析相比,IE设计可以将癌症特异性死亡率p值降低5倍(NLST),33倍(MINN-FOBT-A),或14,160倍(PLCO-CRC),或者,将样本量(90%功率)减少26%(NLST),48%(MINN-FOBT-A),或59%(PLCO-CRC)。对于潜在的MCD试验设计,要求每臂100,000名受试者达到标准分析的多癌死亡率的90%功效,IE分析每臂只有37,500-50,000的功率达到90%,取决于关于控制臂测试阳性的假设。
结论:在筛选试验的对照臂中测试储存的标本以进行IE分析可以大大提高减少样本量或加速试验的能力,并为MCD测试提供特别强的功率增益。
BACKGROUND: Cancer screening trials have required large sample sizes and long time-horizons to demonstrate cancer mortality reductions, the primary goal of cancer screening. We examine assumptions and potential power gains from exploiting information from testing control-arm specimens, which we call the \"intended effect\" (IE) analysis that we explain in detail herein. The IE analysis is particularly suited to tests that can be conducted on stored specimens in the control arm, such as stored blood for multicancer detection (MCD) tests.
METHODS: We simulated hypothetical MCD screening trials to compare power and sample size for the standard vs IE analysis. Under two assumptions that we detail herein, we projected the IE analysis for 3 existing screening trials (National Lung Screening Trial [NLST], Minnesota Colon Cancer Control Study [MINN-FOBT-A], and Prostate, Lung, Colorectal, Ovarian Cancer Screening Trial-colorectal component [PLCO-CRC]).
RESULTS: Compared with the standard analysis for the 3 existing trials, the IE design could have reduced cancer-specific mortality P values 5-fold (NLST), 33-fold (MINN-FOBT-A), or 14 160-fold (PLCO-CRC) or, alternately, reduced sample size (90% power) by 26% (NLST), 48% (MINN-FOBT-A), or 59% (PLCO-CRC). For potential MCD trial designs requiring 100 000 subjects per arm to achieve 90% power for multicancer mortality for the standard analysis, the IE analysis achieves 90% power for only 37 500-50 000 per arm, depending on assumptions concerning control-arm test-positives.
CONCLUSIONS: Testing stored specimens in the control arm of screening trials to conduct the IE analysis could substantially increase power to reduce sample size or accelerate trials and could provide particularly strong power gains for MCD tests.