报告了CASP15的三级结构评估结果。第一次,认识到AlphaFold2(AF2)在CASP14上的出色表现,所有单链预测都被一起评估,无论模板是否可用。在CASP15,没有一个突出的小组,以PEZYFoldings为首的大多数得分最高的小组,UM-TBM,和杨服务器-以一种或另一种方式采用AF2。许多顶级团队特别关注生成深度多序列比对(MSA)和测试变体MSA,从而使他们能够成功地解决一些最困难的目标。如此困难的目标,以及缺乏模板,通常是具有很少同源物的蛋白质。预测和目标之间的局部差异与晶格或链界面的局部定位相关,并且在晶体结构目标中具有高B因子因子的区域,并且不一定应被视为表示预测中的误差。然而,对暴露和掩埋侧链精度的分析显示出即使在后者中也有改进的空间。然而,大多数小组对大多数目标产生了高质量的预测,对实验结构测定很有价值,功能分析,以及生物学中的许多其他任务。这些包括应用类似于用于生成主要资源的方法的方法,例如AlphaFold蛋白质结构数据库和ESM宏基因组图谱:前者的置信度估计也非常准确。
The results of tertiary structure assessment at CASP15 are reported. For the first time, recognizing the outstanding performance of AlphaFold 2 (AF2) at CASP14, all single-chain predictions were assessed together, irrespective of whether a template was available. At CASP15, there was no single stand-out group, with most of the best-scoring groups-led by PEZYFoldings, UM-TBM, and Yang Server-employing AF2 in one way or another. Many top groups paid special attention to generating deep Multiple Sequence Alignments (MSAs) and testing variant MSAs, thereby allowing them to successfully address some of the hardest targets. Such difficult targets, as well as lacking templates, were typically proteins with few homologues. Local divergence between prediction and target correlated with localization at crystal lattice or chain interfaces, and with regions exhibiting high B-factor factors in crystal structure targets, and should not necessarily be considered as representing error in the prediction. However, analysis of exposed and buried side chain accuracy showed room for improvement even in the latter. Nevertheless, a majority of groups produced high-quality predictions for most targets, which are valuable for experimental structure determination, functional analysis, and many other tasks across biology. These include those applying methods similar to those used to generate major resources such as the AlphaFold Protein Structure Database and the ESM Metagenomic atlas: the confidence estimates of the former were also notably accurate.