■近几十年来中国南方省份斑疹伤寒的重新出现得到了验证,从而引起公共卫生当局的注意。海南省斑疹伤寒的时空扩展,但是流行病学特征,环境驱动因素,目前尚未对斑疹伤寒的潜在高危地区进行调查。
■本研究的目的是表征斑疹伤寒的时空流行病学,确定主要的环境风险因素,并绘制海南省2011-2020年潜在风险区域图。
■使用空间分析和回归(STR)的季节趋势分解,对2011年至2020年海南省斑疹伤寒的时空动态进行了分析。应用最大熵(MaxEnt)模型确定了灌木斑疹伤寒的关键环境预测因子和环境适宜区域,并评估了预测合适区域的人口统计学多样性。
■在2011-2020年期间,海南省记录了3260例斑疹伤寒病例。灌区斑疹伤寒病例数每年持续增加,特别是在被确定为高危人群的农民(67.61%)和50-59岁的个体(23.25%)中。发现了双重流行高峰,每年4月至6月和7月至10月出现。基于MaxEnt的风险图说明了高度合适的区域,占总面积的25.36%,主要分布在海南省东北部,占总人口的75.43%。刀刀测试表明地表温度,高程,累积降水量,蒸发,土地覆盖,人口密度,和家属比例是最重要的环境因素。
■在这项研究中,我们获得了对时空流行病学动态的见解,关键的环境驱动因素,和海南省斑疹伤寒潜在风险图。这些结果对研究人员和公共卫生官员指导未来斑疹伤寒的预防和控制策略具有重要意义。
UNASSIGNED: The re-emergence of scrub typhus in the southern provinces of China in recent decades has been validated, thereby attracting the attention of public health authorities. There has been a spatial and temporal expansion of scrub typhus in Hainan Province, but the epidemiological characteristics, environmental drivers, and potential high-risk areas for scrub typhus have not yet been investigated.
UNASSIGNED: The aims of this study were to characterize the spatiotemporal epidemiology of scrub typhus, identify dominant environmental risk factors, and map potential risk areas in Hainan Province from 2011 to 2020.
UNASSIGNED: The spatiotemporal dynamics of scrub typhus in Hainan Province between 2011 and 2020 were analyzed using spatial analyses and seasonal-trend decomposition using regression (STR). The maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model was applied to determine the key environmental predictors and environmentally suitable areas for scrub typhus, and the demographic diversity of the predicted suitable zones was evaluated.
UNASSIGNED: During 2011-2020, 3260 scrub typhus cases were recorded in Hainan Province. The number of scrub typhus cases increased continuously each year, particularly among farmers (67.61%) and individuals aged 50-59 years (23.25%) who were identified as high-risk groups. A dual epidemic peak was detected, emerging annually from April to June and from July to October. The MaxEnt-based risk map illustrated that highly suitable areas, accounting for 25.36% of the total area, were mainly distributed in the northeastern part of Hainan Province, where 75.43% of the total population lived. Jackknife tests revealed that ground surface temperature, elevation, cumulative precipitation, evaporation, land cover, population density, and ratio of dependents were the most significant environmental factors.
UNASSIGNED: In this study, we gained insights into the spatiotemporal epidemiological dynamics, pivotal environmental drivers, and potential risk map of scrub typhus in Hainan Province. These results have important implications for researchers and public health officials in guiding future prevention and control strategies for scrub typhus.