maximum entropy modeling

最大熵建模
  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    雪豹(Pantherauncia)是难以捉摸的捕食者,栖息在高海拔和多山的崎habitat栖息地。本研究在盐池湾国家级自然保护区进行,甘肃省,中国,评估雪豹的栖息地适宜性,并确定导致其分布的关键环境因素。在2019年至2022年之间通过scat采样和相机捕获技术收集的现场数据提供了对雪豹栖息地偏好的见解。空间分布和聚类分析显示出高度栖息地适宜性的不同热点,大多集中在山区景观附近。虽然高度仍然是一个关键的决定因素,3300米以上的地方显示出更高的栖息地适宜性,其他因素,如土壤类型,人类足迹,森林覆盖,猎物的可用性,人为干扰也起着重要作用。这些变量会影响生态动态,并且是评估和管理雪豹栖息地所必需的。MaxEnt模型帮助我们更好地把握了这些问题,特别是人类活动对栖息地适宜性的巨大影响。当前的研究强调了海拔高度在确定雪豹栖息地偏好和保护区分布模式中的重要性。此外,这项研究强调了在雪豹的保护规划和管理策略中考虑海拔的重要性,特别是在山区。通过将完整的环境数据与创新的建模工具相结合,这项研究不仅改善了当地的保护工作,而且为世界各地类似的野生动植物保护计划提供了模型。通过了解驱动雪豹分布的环境因素,保护工作可以更有效地指导,以确保这种濒危物种的长期生存。这项研究为在人为压力和环境波动中保护雪豹栖息地的循证保护工作提供了宝贵的见解。
    Snow leopards (Panthera uncia) are elusive predators inhabiting high-altitude and mountainous rugged habitats. The current study was conducted in the Yanchiwan National Nature Reserve, Gansu Province, China, to assess the habitat suitability of snow leopards and identify key environmental factors inducing their distribution. Field data collected between 2019 and 2022 through scat sampling and camera trapping techniques provided insights into snow leopard habitat preferences. Spatial distribution and cluster analyses show distinct hotspots of high habitat suitability, mostly concentrated near mountainous landscapes. While altitude remains a critical determinant, with places above 3300 m showing increased habitat suitability, other factors such as soil type, human footprint, forest cover, prey availability, and human disturbance also play important roles. These variables influence ecological dynamics and are required to assess and manage snow leopard habitats. The MaxEnt model has helped us to better grasp these issues, particularly the enormous impact of human activities on habitat suitability. The current study highlights the importance of altitude in determining snow leopard habitat preferences and distribution patterns in the reserve. Furthermore, the study underscores the significance of considering elevation in conservation planning and management strategies for snow leopards, particularly in mountainous regions. By combining complete environmental data with innovative modeling tools, this study not only improves local conservation efforts but also serves as a model for similar wildlife conservation initiatives around the world. By understanding the environmental factors driving snow leopard distribution, conservation efforts can be more efficiently directed to ensure the long-term survival of this endangered species. This study provides valuable insights for evidence-based conservation efforts to safeguard the habitats of snow leopards amidst emerging anthropogenic pressure and environmental fluctuations.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    五味子(SSF),五味子干的成熟果实。威尔斯。,是一种具有广泛应用潜力的中药。次生代谢产物的组成和含量表明SSF的质量与环境因素密切相关。如区域气候和土壤条件。本研究的目的是预测中国潜在适宜沙门菌的分布模式,并查明影响其药用成分积累的主要环境因素。在当前和未来的气候情景(SSP1-RCP2.6,SSP3-RCP7和SSP5-RCP8.5)下开发并应用了优化的最大熵模型。结果表明,在当前的气候条件下(1981-2010年),Sphenanthera的总适宜面积(179.58×104km2)占中国领土的18.71%。可怜的,适度,和高度合适的区域分别为119.00×104km2,49.61×104km2和10.98×104km2。预计在未来的气候条件(2041-2070和2071-2100)下,Sphenanthera的潜在合适区域将缩小并向西移动。气候影响较低的地区位于陕西南部,贵州西北部,重庆东南部,和鄂西各省(市),在不同的气候情景下表现出稳定和高的适用性。挥发油的含量,木脂素,SSF中的多糖与各种环境因素相关。主要次生代谢产物的积累主要受温度变化的影响,季节性降水,和年降水量。本研究描绘了中国紫杉的潜在分布及其未来的空间变化。我们的发现破译了栖息地环境对沙门草的地理分布和药用质量的影响,这可能对自然资源保护和人工种植产生重大影响。
    Schisandrae Sphenantherae Fructus (SSF), the dry ripe fruit of Schisandra sphenanthera Rehd. et Wils., is a traditional Chinese medicine with wide application potential. The quality of SSF indicated by the composition and contents of secondary metabolites is closely related to environmental factors, such as regional climate and soil conditions. The aims of this study were to predict the distribution patterns of potentially suitable areas for S. sphenanthera in China and pinpoint the major environmental factors influencing its accumulation of medicinal components. An optimized maximum entropy model was developed and applied under current and future climate scenarios (SSP1-RCP2.6, SSP3-RCP7, and SSP5-RCP8.5). Results show that the total suitable areas for S. sphenanthera (179.58×104 km2) cover 18.71% of China\'s territory under the current climatic conditions (1981-2010). Poorly, moderately, and highly suitable areas are 119.00×104 km2, 49.61×104 km2, and 10.98×104 km2, respectively. The potentially suitable areas for S. sphenanthera are predicted to shrink and shift westward under the future climatic conditions (2041-2070 and 2071-2100). The areas of low climate impact are located in southern Shaanxi, northwestern Guizhou, southeastern Chongqing, and western Hubei Provinces (or Municipality), which exhibit stable and high suitability under different climate scenarios. The contents of volatile oils, lignans, and polysaccharides in SSF are correlated with various environmental factors. The accumulation of major secondary metabolites is primarily influenced by temperature variation, seasonal precipitation, and annual precipitation. This study depicts the potential distribution of S. sphenanthera in China and its spatial change in the future. Our findings decipher the influence of habitat environment on the geographical distribution and medicinal quality of S. sphenanthera, which could have great implications for natural resource conservation and artificial cultivation.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    近几十年来中国南方省份斑疹伤寒的重新出现得到了验证,从而引起公共卫生当局的注意。海南省斑疹伤寒的时空扩展,但是流行病学特征,环境驱动因素,目前尚未对斑疹伤寒的潜在高危地区进行调查。
    本研究的目的是表征斑疹伤寒的时空流行病学,确定主要的环境风险因素,并绘制海南省2011-2020年潜在风险区域图。
    使用空间分析和回归(STR)的季节趋势分解,对2011年至2020年海南省斑疹伤寒的时空动态进行了分析。应用最大熵(MaxEnt)模型确定了灌木斑疹伤寒的关键环境预测因子和环境适宜区域,并评估了预测合适区域的人口统计学多样性。
    在2011-2020年期间,海南省记录了3260例斑疹伤寒病例。灌区斑疹伤寒病例数每年持续增加,特别是在被确定为高危人群的农民(67.61%)和50-59岁的个体(23.25%)中。发现了双重流行高峰,每年4月至6月和7月至10月出现。基于MaxEnt的风险图说明了高度合适的区域,占总面积的25.36%,主要分布在海南省东北部,占总人口的75.43%。刀刀测试表明地表温度,高程,累积降水量,蒸发,土地覆盖,人口密度,和家属比例是最重要的环境因素。
    在这项研究中,我们获得了对时空流行病学动态的见解,关键的环境驱动因素,和海南省斑疹伤寒潜在风险图。这些结果对研究人员和公共卫生官员指导未来斑疹伤寒的预防和控制策略具有重要意义。
    UNASSIGNED: The re-emergence of scrub typhus in the southern provinces of China in recent decades has been validated, thereby attracting the attention of public health authorities. There has been a spatial and temporal expansion of scrub typhus in Hainan Province, but the epidemiological characteristics, environmental drivers, and potential high-risk areas for scrub typhus have not yet been investigated.
    UNASSIGNED: The aims of this study were to characterize the spatiotemporal epidemiology of scrub typhus, identify dominant environmental risk factors, and map potential risk areas in Hainan Province from 2011 to 2020.
    UNASSIGNED: The spatiotemporal dynamics of scrub typhus in Hainan Province between 2011 and 2020 were analyzed using spatial analyses and seasonal-trend decomposition using regression (STR). The maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model was applied to determine the key environmental predictors and environmentally suitable areas for scrub typhus, and the demographic diversity of the predicted suitable zones was evaluated.
    UNASSIGNED: During 2011-2020, 3260 scrub typhus cases were recorded in Hainan Province. The number of scrub typhus cases increased continuously each year, particularly among farmers (67.61%) and individuals aged 50-59 years (23.25%) who were identified as high-risk groups. A dual epidemic peak was detected, emerging annually from April to June and from July to October. The MaxEnt-based risk map illustrated that highly suitable areas, accounting for 25.36% of the total area, were mainly distributed in the northeastern part of Hainan Province, where 75.43% of the total population lived. Jackknife tests revealed that ground surface temperature, elevation, cumulative precipitation, evaporation, land cover, population density, and ratio of dependents were the most significant environmental factors.
    UNASSIGNED: In this study, we gained insights into the spatiotemporal epidemiological dynamics, pivotal environmental drivers, and potential risk map of scrub typhus in Hainan Province. These results have important implications for researchers and public health officials in guiding future prevention and control strategies for scrub typhus.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    菌核病,一种真菌病原体,导致全球作物损失,需要额外的疾病管理策略。对这种真菌的气候生态位进行建模可能为选择生物防治生物和培养控制方法提供工具。Maxent,一种建模技术,用于表征真菌的气候生态位。该技术需要疾病发生数据,生物气候数据层,和地理空间分析。使用ArcGIS10.8.1进行了互相关,以将19个生物气候变量(WorldClim)减少为9个变量。通过AUC(曲线下面积)评价模型结果。用Maxent的随机种子程序创建最终模型,并给出0.935的平均AUC,AUC差为-0.008。最关键的变量包括年降水量(重要性:14.1%),范围为450毫米至2500毫米,最冷季度的平均温度(重要性:55.6%),范围为-16°C至24°C,对最终模型的贡献最大。从最终的Maxent模型在ArcGIS10.8.1中生成了栖息地适宜性图。通过将结果与另一个发生数据集进行比较来验证最终模型。Z-Score统计检验证实所有适合性区域的两个数据集之间没有显著差异。
    Sclerotinia sclerotiorum, a fungal pathogen, causes world-wide crop losses and additional disease management strategies are needed. Modeling the climate niche of this fungus may offer a tool for the selection of biological control organisms and cultural methods of control. Maxent, a modeling technique, was used to characterize the climate niche for the fungus. The technique requires disease occurrence data, bioclimatic data layers, and geospatial analysis. A cross-correlation was performed with ArcGIS 10.8.1, to reduce nineteen bioclimatic variables (WorldClim) to nine variables. The model results were evaluated by AUC (area under the curve). A final model was created with the random seed procedure of Maxent and gave an average AUC of 0.935 with an AUC difference of -0.008. The most critical variables included annual precipitation (importance: 14.1%) with a range of 450 mm to 2500 mm and the mean temperature of the coldest quarter (importance: 55.6%) with a range of -16 °C to 24 °C, which contributed the most to the final model. A habitat suitability map was generated in ArcGIS 10.8.1 from the final Maxent model. The final model was validated by comparing results with another occurrence dataset. A Z-Score statistical test confirmed no significant differences between the two datasets for all suitability areas.
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  • 文章类型: Systematic Review
    物种分布建模(SDM)已成为探索生态学问题的一种越来越普遍的方法,地理,爆发风险,以及与传染病媒介有关的全球变化。这里,我们对科学文献进行了系统的回顾,筛选563篇摘要,并确定204篇使用SDM进行蚊子分布估算的研究。尽管在过去十年中,采用SDM方法的研究数量显着增加,绝大多数使用单一方法(最大熵建模;MaxEnt),并专注于人类传染病媒介或其近亲。大多数区域模式是为非洲和亚洲地区开发的,而更本地化的建模工作在北美和欧洲最常见。这项研究的结果突出了分类学方面的差距,地理,以及当前针对蚊子的SDM文献的方法重点,可以指导未来研究蚊子传播疾病风险的地理研究。
    Species distribution modeling (SDM) has become an increasingly common approach to explore questions about ecology, geography, outbreak risk, and global change as they relate to infectious disease vectors. Here, we conducted a systematic review of the scientific literature, screening 563 abstracts and identifying 204 studies that used SDMs to produce distribution estimates for mosquito species. While the number of studies employing SDM methods has increased markedly over the past decade, the overwhelming majority used a single method (maximum entropy modeling; MaxEnt) and focused on human infectious disease vectors or their close relatives. The majority of regional models were developed for areas in Africa and Asia, while more localized modeling efforts were most common for North America and Europe. Findings from this study highlight gaps in taxonomic, geographic, and methodological foci of current SDM literature for mosquitoes that can guide future efforts to study the geography of mosquito-borne disease risk.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    背景:尽管中国斑疹伤寒的病例数量不断增加,地理分布不断扩大,其潜力分布在福建省,这是这种疾病的地方病,还有待调查.
    方法:面板数据的负二项回归模型主要包括气象,使用社会经济和土地覆盖变量来确定斑疹伤寒发生的危险因素。最大熵模型用于确定斑疹伤寒的关键预测变量及其范围,绘制不同环境对疾病的适用性,并估计不同感染风险水平的人口比例。
    结果:面板数据的最终多元负二项回归模型表明,年平均归一化植被指数与斑疹伤寒病例数的相关性最强。灌木丛和贫瘠土地每增加0.1%,每月斑疹伤寒病例分别增加75.0%和37.0%,分别。相比之下,在过去的两个月中,平均风速的每单位上升,水体每增加1%,在每月斑疹伤寒病例中分别减少40.0%和4.0%,分别。最大熵模型的预测是稳健的,平均曲线下面积值高达0.864。斑疹伤寒发生的最佳预测变量是人口密度,年平均归一化植被指数,和土地覆盖类型。福建省东部沿海地区预测的可能最适合斑疹伤寒的区域广泛分布,高适区和中等适区分别占16.14%和9.42%,分别。在全省总人口中,81.63%的人居住在斑疹伤寒的适宜地区。
    结论:这些发现有助于加深我们对斑疹伤寒的危险因素的理解,并为福建省公共卫生当局在福建省已确定的高危地区制定更有效的监测和控制策略提供信息。
    BACKGROUND: Despite the increasing number of cases of scrub typhus and its expanding geographical distribution in China, its potential distribution in Fujian Province, which is endemic for the disease, has yet to be investigated.
    METHODS: A negative binomial regression model for panel data mainly comprising meteorological, socioeconomic and land cover variables was used to determine the risk factors for the occurrence of scrub typhus. Maximum entropy modeling was used to identify the key predictive variables of scrub typhus and their ranges, map the suitability of different environments for the disease, and estimate the proportion of the population at different levels of infection risk.
    RESULTS: The final multivariate negative binomial regression model for panel data showed that the annual mean normalized difference vegetation index had the strongest correlation with the number of scrub typhus cases. With each 0.1% rise in shrubland and 1% rise in barren land there was a 75.0% and 37.0% increase in monthly scrub typhus cases, respectively. In contrast, each unit rise in mean wind speed in the previous 2 months and each 1% increase in water bodies corresponded to a decrease of 40.0% and 4.0% in monthly scrub typhus cases, respectively. The predictions of the maximum entropy model were robust, and the average area under the curve value was as high as 0.864. The best predictive variables for scrub typhus occurrence were population density, annual mean normalized difference vegetation index, and land cover types. The projected potentially most suitable areas for scrub typhus were widely distributed across the eastern coastal area of Fujian Province, with highly suitable and moderately suitable areas accounting for 16.14% and 9.42%, respectively. Of the total human population of the province, 81.63% reside in highly suitable areas for scrub typhus.
    CONCLUSIONS: These findings could help deepen our understanding of the risk factors of scrub typhus, and provide information for public health authorities in Fujian Province to develop more effective surveillance and control strategies in identified high risk areas in Fujian Province.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    黄孢属以其食用和药用价值而闻名。在这项研究中,最全面的发生记录与准确的物种鉴定的三黄孢菌是由MaxEnt,对中国多种气候变化情景下的当前地理分布和未来范围变化进行建模。如接收器操作员特征曲线下面积值所示,可以很好地预测三黄的当前电势分布模型。目前的电位分布基本对应于已知的发生记录,并提供了新的适宜栖息地的线索。分布的关键环境变量是年降水量,寄主植物,年平均温度和海拔。寄主植物不是模型中最关键的贡献,但它确实在限制三黄孢菌的分布中起着决定性的作用。这一作用进一步证实了高度适宜生境的分布面积增加了155.468%,当从环境变量中排除宿主植物时。对于未来的场景,一般情况下,非常适合三黄的栖息地面积大大增加,但是地点变化不大。总之,本研究为食用和药用真菌三黄的利用和保护提供了重要的生态信息。
    The genus Sanghuangporus is well-known for its edible and medicinal values. In this study, the most comprehensive occurrence records of Sanghuangporus with accurate species identification are subjected to MaxEnt, to model the current geographic distribution and future range shifts under multiple climate change scenarios in China. The current potential distribution model of Sanghuangporus is excellently predicted as indicated by the value of Area Under Receiver Operator Characteristic Curve. The current potential distribution basically corresponds to the known occurrence records of Sanghuangporus, and provides clues to new suitable habitats. The critical environmental variables to the distribution are annual precipitation, host plant, annual mean temperature and elevation. Host plant is not the most critical contribution to the model, but it indeed plays a decisive role in restricting the distribution of Sanghuangporus. This role is further confirmed by the distribution area of the highly suitable habitat increasing by 155.468%, when excluding host plant from environmental variables. For future scenarios, generally the area of highly suitable habitat for Sanghuangporus extremely increases, but the locations do not change a lot. In conclusion, this study provides important ecological information for the utilization and conservation of the edible and medicinal fungus Sanghuangporus.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    Using the 260 geographical distribution records of Polygonatum cyrtonema in China, combined with 53 environmental factors, the maximum entropy modeling(MaxEnt) was used to study the ecological factors affecting the suitability distribution of P. cyrtonema. The ArcGIS software was used to predict the potential distribution of the population of P. cyrtonema. The dominant factors were chosen by using the Jackknife test and the Receiver Operating Characteristic(ROC) curve was used to evaluate the simulation. The results showed that high value of area under curve(AUC) denoted good results, which significantly differed from random predictions. Based on the evaluation criterion, the accuracies of the predictions of P. cyrtonema potential distribution in the current periods were excellent. The main environmental factors affecting the suitable growth of P. cyrtonema were the monthly precipitation, the wettest monthly precipitation, the annual average temperature range and the precipitation of November, March, February, April, May and October. There are 9 environmental factors in soil type. The potential fitness of P. cyrtonema in China is high, mainly concentra-ted in Hunan, western Hubei, Guangdong, northeastern Guangxi, southeastern Guizhou, Jiangxi, southwestern Anhui, Fujian, Zhejiang, Shaanxi, southwestern Henan and Chongqing. The growth distribution of the potential distribution area of P. cyrtonema was divided, and the zoning map of the growth suitability of P. cyrtonema was formed. Through the comparative analysis of the potential distribution range based on MaxEnt and the distribution range of literature records, the understanding of the distribution range of P. cyrtonema was expanded.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    Dozens of mutations throughout the sequence of the gene encoding superoxide dismutase 1 (SOD1) have been linked to toxic protein aggregation in the neurodegenerative disease amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS). A parsimonious explanation for numerous genotypes resulting in a common phenotype would be mutation-induced perturbation of the folding free-energy surface that increases the populations of high-energy states prone to aggregation. The absence of intermediates in the folding of monomeric SOD1 suggests that the unfolded ensemble is a potential source of aggregation. To test this hypothesis, here we dissected SOD1 into a set of peptides end-labeled with FRET probes to model the local behavior of the corresponding sequences in the unfolded ensemble. Using time-resolved FRET, we observed that the peptide corresponding to the Loop VII-β8 sequence at the SOD1 C terminus was uniquely sensitive to denaturant. Utilizing a two-dimensional form of maximum entropy modeling, we demonstrate that the sensitivity to denaturant is the surprising result of a two-state-like transition from a compact to an expanded state. Variations of the peptide sequence revealed that the compact state involves a nonnative interaction between the disordered N terminus and the hydrophobic C terminus of the peptide. This nonnative intramolecular structure could serve as a precursor for intermolecular association and result in aggregation associated with ALS. We propose that this precursor would provide a common molecular target for therapeutic intervention in the dozens of ALS-linked SOD1 mutations.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    Among the 13 Mico species recognized by the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species, six are listed as \"Data Deficient\". The geographic range of most of the Mico species has been estimated from only a few records. We report new localities and the geographic extension of Mico chrysoleucos. In addition, we confirmed the presence of the species in two distinct protected areas. We modeled the habitat suitability of M. chrysoleucos using the maximum entropy method and including new records obtained by the authors in the state of Amazonas, Brazil. From the total area of occurrence calculated for the species, 22.8% is covered by protected areas and indigenous lands. The annual mean deforestation rate estimated between 2000 and 2015 was 2.95%, and the total area deforested by 2015 was 3354 km2 or 8.6% of the total distribution limits of the species. The habitat lost between 2000 and 2015 was 3.2% (1131 km2) of the total potential distribution, while the habitat loss area legally protected was 31 km2, and the habitat loss in settlements was equal to 691 km2. Our results extend the geographic distribution of the species about 100 km farther south, with the Maracanã River being a possible geographic barrier for the species. The significantly low rate of habitat loss inside protected areas and indigenous land, when compared to unprotected areas, points out the importance of these areas to M. chrysoleucos conservation. The species is relatively wide-ranging, legally protected, and resilient to regional anthropic threats. However, the hydroelectric schemes and the improvement of the road system in southern Amazonia pose an imminent threat to the species.
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