背景:政策制定者试图通过国家和地方非药物干预措施来减轻covid-19的传播。此外,证据表明,由于异质的局部特征,一些地区比其他地区更容易受到传染风险的影响。我们研究意大利的区域政策,于2020年11月4日推出,有效解决了由这种异质性引起的当地感染风险。方法:意大利由19个地区(和2个自治省)组成,又分为107个省。我们收集了35个与人口统计相关的特定省份的预测变量,地理,经济活动,和流动性。首先,我们测试了它们的区域内变化是否可以解释意大利第二波中covid-19的发病率。使用LASSO算法,我们隔离了具有高解释力的变量。然后,我们测试他们的解释力是否在区域层面的政策出台后消失。研究结果:七个前covid特征的区域内变异具有统计学意义(F检验p值<0·001),并解释了covid-19发病率的省一级变异的19%,除了特定地区的因素之外,在区域政策出台之前。在区域政策出台后,其解释力下降到7%,但仍然很重要(p值<0·001),即使在被置于更严格政策下的地区(p值=0.067)。解释:即使在同一地区,由于当地特点,意大利各省在接触covid-19感染风险方面存在差异。区域政策并没有消除这些差异,但可能会让他们受挫.我们的证据可能与需要设计非药物干预措施的决策者相关。它还为试图估计其因果影响的研究人员提供了方法论建议。资金:无。
Background: Policy-makers have attempted to mitigate the spread of covid-19 with national and local non-pharmaceutical interventions. Moreover, evidence suggests that some areas are more exposed than others to contagion risk due to heterogeneous local characteristics. We study whether Italy\'s regional policies, introduced on 4th November 2020, have effectively tackled the local infection risk arising from such heterogeneity. Methods: Italy consists of 19 regions (and 2 autonomous provinces), further divided into 107 provinces. We collect 35 province-specific pre-covid variables related to demographics, geography, economic activity, and mobility. First, we test whether their within-region variation explains the covid-19 incidence during the Italian second wave. Using a LASSO algorithm, we isolate variables with high explanatory power. Then, we test if their explanatory power disappears after the introduction of the regional-level policies. Findings: The within-region variation of seven pre-covid characteristics is statistically significant (F-test p-value < 0 · 001 ) and explains 19% of the province-level variation of covid-19 incidence, on top of region-specific factors, before regional policies were introduced. Its explanatory power declines to 7% after the introduction of regional policies, but is still significant (p-value < 0 · 001 ), even in regions placed under stricter policies (p-value = 0 · 067 ). Interpretation: Even within the same region, Italy\'s provinces differ in exposure to covid-19 infection risk due to local characteristics. Regional policies did not eliminate these differences, but may have dampened them. Our evidence can be relevant for policy-makers who need to design non-pharmaceutical interventions. It also provides a methodological suggestion for researchers who attempt to estimate their causal effects. Funding: None.