linear regression model

线性回归模型
  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    南部非洲发展共同体(SADC)某些地区的季节性气候预测能力有限,限制了其在气候服务发展中的潜在应用。本研究探讨了通过使用基本气候变量(ECV)和大规模远程连接指数之间的观测关系来提高这些预测质量的可行性,即Niño3.4,大西洋Niño和印度洋偶极子。潜在的假设是,对于某些领域,经验观察到的远程关联可以改善季节性预测系统提供的预测。这是通过在每个指标和ECV之间实施线性回归模型来实现的,在过去的12个月里,以及每个季节和网格点。在获得变量的指数推导估计后,计算相关系数和公平排名概率技能得分(fRPSS),并将其与不同提前期的ECMWFSEAS5(SEAS5)预测进行比较。结果表明,整个区域的10-25%在所有季节中都表现出指数衍生降水的相关性。在温度的情况下,虽然,只有在六个季节中才能观察到更高的相关性(仅适用于Niño3.4)。关于fRPSS,使用Niño3.4估算温度(在四个季节中)时,整个区域的7%显示出改善。相反,对于降水,没有检测到增强。在今后的工作中,值得研究的是,组合的多指数回归是否可以进一步提高观察到的绩效增长。
    The limited skill of seasonal climate predictions in some regions of the Southern African Development Community (SADC) restricts their potential application to the development of climate services. This study explores the feasibility of improving the quality of these predictions by using the observed relationship between Essential Climate Variables (ECVs) and large-scale teleconnection indices, namely Niño3.4, the Atlantic Niño and the Indian Ocean Dipole. The underlying hypothesis is that, for certain areas, the empirical observed teleconnections could improve the predictions offered by the seasonal forecasting systems. This is achieved by implementing linear regression models between each index and ECV, for up to 12 months into the past, and for each season and grid point. After obtaining the index-derived estimates of the variables, the correlation coefficients and fair Ranked Probability Skill Scores (fRPSS) are computed and compared to those of the ECMWF SEAS5 (SEAS5) predictions for different lead times. The results show that 10-25 % of the entire domain exhibits improved correlations for the index-derived precipitation in all seasons. In the case of temperature, though, higher correlations could be observed only in six seasons (and solely for Niño3.4). Regarding fRPSS, up to 7 % of the entire area shows an improvement when using Niño3.4 to estimate temperature (in four seasons). Conversely, for precipitation there is no detected enhancement. In future work, it would be worth investigating whether a combined multi-index regression can further raise the observed increase in performance.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    吡咯烷生物碱(PAs)及其N-氧化物(PANOs)是由各种植物物种产生的植物毒素,已成为环境污染物。PAs/PANOs在土壤中的吸附/解吸行为至关重要,因为这些天然产物从产生PA的植物水平转移到土壤中,然后被植物根部吸收。本研究首先研究了PAs/PANOs在茶园土壤中的吸附/解吸行为,具有鲜明的特征。在三种酸性土壤中,对seneciphyline(Sp)和seneciphyline-N-氧化物(SpNO)的吸附量为2.9至5.9µg/g和1.7至2.8µg/g,分别。Sp和SpNO的解吸百分比为22.2%至30.5%和36.1%至43.9%。在混合PAs/PANOs系统中,在测试土壤中,PAs对PANOs的吸附更强。此外,Freundlich模型更精确地描述了吸附/解吸等温线。阳离子交换能力,通过线性回归模型将含沙量和总氮确定为主要影响因素。总的来说,土壤对疏水性较大的化合物表现出较高的吸附能力。PANOs更有可能在土壤中迁移并被茶树吸收。它有助于了解茶园中PAs/PANOs的环境命运,并为PAs/PANOs还原技术的发展提供基础数据和线索。
    Pyrrolizidine alkaloids (PAs) and their N-oxides (PANOs) are phytotoxins produced by various plant species and have been emerged as environmental pollutants. The sorption/desorption behaviors of PAs/PANOs in soil are crucial due to the horizontal transfer of these natural products from PA-producing plants to soil and subsequently absorbed by plant roots. This study firstly investigated the sorption/desorption behaviors of PAs/PANOs in tea plantation soils with distinct characteristics. Sorption amounts for seneciphylline (Sp) and seneciphylline-N-oxide (SpNO) in three acidic soils ranged from 2.9 to 5.9 µg/g and 1.7 to 2.8 µg/g, respectively. Desorption percentages for Sp and SpNO were from 22.2% to 30.5% and 36.1% to 43.9%. In the mixed PAs/PANOs systems, stronger sorption of PAs over PANOs was occurred in tested soils. Additionally, the Freundlich models more precisely described the sorption/desorption isotherms. Cation exchange capacity, sand content and total nitrogen were identified as major influencing factors by linear regression models. Overall, the soils exhibiting higher sorption capacities for compounds with greater hydrophobicity. PANOs were more likely to migrate within soils and be absorbed by tea plants. It contributes to the understanding of environmental fate of PAs/PANOs in tea plantations and provides basic data and clues for the development of PAs/PANOs reduction technology.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    拓扑描述符是从化学图的结构生成的数值结果,可用于识别各种药物的物理化学特征。分子描述符的引入促进了定量结构-性质关系的研究。本文主要研究眼部感染药物的九度化拓扑指数和线性回归模型。我们引入了两个新指数,即,“第一次修订的Randic指数”和“第二次修订的Randic指数”,用于分析眼部感染药物。拓扑指数是通过使用边划分来计算的,顶点度计数,和顶点度标记。这个分析是用科学计算器完成的,然后用Matlab验证,检查数据的有力工具。拓扑指数的实验数据和结果作为统计计算的输入,并提供截距的值,斜坡,和相关系数。所有眼部感染药物的相关性都是阳性的,表明药物的实验结果和估计结果之间存在直接关系。对于眼部感染的所有特征,p检验都有显着结果,如分子量,沸点,焓,闪点,磨牙折射,和摩尔体积,验证计算的准确性。在这项研究中,确定了具有两个性质的定义指数之间的显着联系:摩尔重量和摩尔折射。摩尔重量和摩尔折射率的相关系数为0.9。这些结果表明指数和所研究的性质之间有很强的关联。线性回归方法是化学家和药剂师快速,经济有效地获取有关不同药物的数据的宝贵工具。
    Topological descriptors are numerical results generated from the structure of a chemical graph that are useful in identifying the physicochemical characteristics of a wide range of drugs. The introduction of molecular descriptors advances quantitative structure-property relationship research. This article focuses on the nine degree-based topological indices and the linear regression model of the eye infection drugs. We introduced two new indices, namely, the \"first revised Randic index\" and the \"second revised Randic index, for the analysis of eye infection drugs. Topological indices are calculated by using edge partitioning, vertex degree counting, and vertex degree labeling. This analysis is done with a scientific calculator and then authenticated with Matlab, a potent tool for examining data. The experimental data and results of the topological indices serve as inputs for the statistical computations and provide the values of intercepts, slopes, and correlation coefficients. All the correlations for the eye-infection drugs are positive, indicating a direct relationship between the experimental and estimated results of the drugs. There are significant results of the p-test for all of the characteristics of eye infection, such as molecular weight, boiling point, enthalpy, flash point, molar refraction, and molar volume, that validate the accuracy of the computations. A significant link was determined in this study between the defined indices with two properties: molar weight and molar refraction. The molar weight and molar refraction have a correlation coefficient ranging from 0.9. These results demonstrate a strong association between the indices and the properties under investigation. The linear regression approach is a valuable tool for chemists and pharmacists to obtain data about different medicines quickly and cost-effectively.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    大气中的气体浓度由于其对健康的影响而成为人们日益关注的话题,生态系统等。它的监测通常通过地面站进行,地面站提供高精度和时间分辨率。然而,在车站很少的国家,比如厄瓜多尔,这些数据未能充分描述污染物浓度的空间变异性。遥感数据具有解决这一难题的巨大潜力。这项研究评估了基多和昆卡的二氧化氮(NO2)和臭氧(O3)浓度的时空分布,使用从2019年和2020年的地面和Sentinel-5前体任务来源获得的数据。此外,线性回归模型(LRM)用于分析地基数据集和卫星数据集之间的相关性,在基多中,O3(R2=0.83,RMSE=0.18)和NO2(R2=0.83,RMSE=0.25)呈正相关;Cuenca的O3(R2=0.74,RMSE=0.23)和NO2(R2=0.73,RMSE=0.23)。采用类内相关系数(ICC)分析了地面数据集和卫星数据集之间的一致性,反映了它们之间的良好一致性(ICC≥0.57);并使用Bland和Altman系数,这显示了低偏差,超过95%的差异在一致的范围内。此外,该研究调查了COVID-19大流行相关限制的影响,比如社交距离和孤立,大气条件。这分为2019年和2020年的三个时期:之前(1月1日至3月15日),期间(3月16日至5月17日),之后(从3月18日到12月31日)。Cuenca的NO2浓度下降了51%,而基多则下降了14.7%。Cuenca的对流层柱减少了27.3%,基多的对流层柱减少了15.1%。O3呈增加趋势,Cuenca和Quito的对流层浓度分别上升了0.42%和0.11%,而Cuenca中的浓度下降了14.4%。基多经历了10.5%的增长。最后,强调了由于流动性限制而导致的大气中化学物质的减少。这项研究比较了卫星和地面站NO2和O3浓度的数据。尽管不同的单位阻止数据验证,它验证了Sentinel-5P卫星在异常检测中的有效性。我们的研究价值在于它对发展中国家的适用性,可能缺乏广泛的监控网络,展示了卫星技术在城市规划中的潜在用途。
    The concentration of gases in the atmosphere is a topic of growing concern due to its effects on health, ecosystems etc. Its monitoring is commonly carried out through ground stations which offer high precision and temporal resolution. However, in countries with few stations, such as Ecuador, these data fail to adequately describe the spatial variability of pollutant concentrations. Remote sensing data have great potential to solve this complication. This study evaluates the spatiotemporal distribution of nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and ozone (O3) concentrations in Quito and Cuenca, using data obtained from ground-based and Sentinel-5 Precursor mission sources during the years 2019 and 2020. Moreover, a Linear Regression Model (LRM) was employed to analyze the correlation between ground-based and satellite datasets, revealing positive associations for O3 (R2 = 0.83, RMSE = 0.18) and NO2 (R2 = 0.83, RMSE = 0.25) in Quito; and O3 (R2 = 0.74, RMSE = 0.23) and NO2, (R2 = 0.73, RMSE = 0.23) for Cuenca. The agreement between ground-based and satellite datasets was analyzed by employing the intra-class correlation coefficient (ICC), reflecting good agreement between them (ICC ≥0.57); and using Bland and Altman coefficients, which showed low bias and that more than 95% of the differences are within the limits of agreement. Furthermore, the study investigated the impact of COVID-19 pandemic-related restrictions, such as social distancing and isolation, on atmospheric conditions. This was categorized into three periods for 2019 and 2020: before (from January 1st to March 15th), during (from March 16th to May 17th), and after (from March 18th to December 31st). A 51% decrease in NO2 concentrations was recorded for Cuenca, while Quito experienced a 14.7% decrease. The tropospheric column decreased by 27.3% in Cuenca and 15.1% in Quito. O3 showed an increasing trend, with tropospheric concentrations rising by 0.42% and 0.11% for Cuenca and Quito respectively, while the concentration in Cuenca decreased by 14.4%. Quito experienced an increase of 10.5%. Finally, the reduction of chemical species in the atmosphere as a consequence of mobility restrictions is highlighted. This study compared satellite and ground station data for NO2 and O3 concentrations. Despite differing units preventing data validation, it verified the Sentinel-5P satellite\'s effectiveness in anomaly detection. Our research\'s value lies in its applicability to developing countries, which may lack extensive monitoring networks, demonstrating the potential use of satellite technology in urban planning.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    目标:本研究旨在量化生活质量(QoL)与中度至剧烈体力活动(MVPA)之间的横断面和前瞻性关联。方法:本研究基于瑞士儿童客观测量的身体活动队列。主要终点是总体QoL评分及其六个维度。主要预测指标是每天在MVPA中花费的平均时间。分别使用线性混合效应和线性回归模型来研究MVPA和QoL之间的横截面和前瞻性关联。结果:研究中有352名参与者从基线(2013-2015)和随访(2019)获得完整数据。MVPA与总体QoL和身体健康呈正相关(分别为p=0.023和0.002)。受试者间MVPA与总体QoL呈正相关,身体健康,和社会福祉(分别为p=0.030、0.017和0.028)。受试者内MVPA与学校的身体健康和功能呈正相关(分别为p=0.039和0.013)。基线MVPA与5年后的QoL无关。结论:未来的纵向研究应采用较短的随访时间和重复测量来评估PA和QoL的相关性。
    Objectives: This study aims to quantify the cross-sectional and prospective associations between quality of life (QoL) and moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA). Methods: This study was based on the Swiss children\'s Objectively measured PHYsical Activity cohort. The primary endpoint is the overall QoL score and its six dimensions. The main predictor is the average time spent in MVPA per day. Linear mixed effects and linear regression models respectively were used to investigate the cross-sectional and prospective associations between MVPA and QoL. Results: There were 352 participants in the study with complete data from baseline (2013-2015) and follow-up (2019). MVPA was positively associated with overall QoL and physical wellbeing (p = 0.023 and 0.002 respectively). The between-subject MVPA was positively associated with the overall QoL, physical wellbeing, and social wellbeing (p = 0.030, 0.017, and 0.028 respectively). Within-subject MVPA was positively associated with physical wellbeing and functioning at school (p = 0.039 and 0.013 respectively). Baseline MVPA was not associated with QoL 5 years later. Conclusion: Future longitudinal studies should employ shorter follow-up times and repeat measurements to assess the PA and QoL association.
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  • 文章类型: Meta-Analysis
    土壤铊(Tl)污染是一个严重的环境问题,和蔬菜是人类暴露于Tl的主要途径。因此,研究蔬菜对土壤Tl的吸收特征很重要。在这项研究中,元分析方法首次用于探索蔬菜中Tl含量与土壤环境之间的关系,以及影响土壤理化性质的关键因素,并得出Tl的土壤阈值。结果表明,不同类型的蔬菜具有不同的Tl积累能力。受污染地区的蔬菜表现出较高的Tl积累,不同类型蔬菜中的GeomeanTl含量顺序为:叶状>根茎>茄科蔬菜。在研究的35个物种中,芋和羽衣甘蓝具有明显更高的积累土壤Tl的能力,Tl生物富集因子值分别为0.060和0.133。Pearson相关分析和荟萃分析表明,蔬菜中的Tl含量与土壤pH和土壤中的Tl含量显着相关。基于土壤Tl含量的蔬菜中Tl积累的线性预测模型很好地描述了数据,拟合系数R2随土壤pH值的增大而增大。根据潜在的饮食毒性,推导出的所有土壤Tl阈值,叶类和根茎类蔬菜随着土壤pH值的增加而增加,并在1.46-6.72、1.74-5.26和0.92-6.06mg/kg的范围内,分别。羽衣甘蓝的土壤Tl阈值,生菜和胡萝卜在0.24-4.89、2.94-3.32和3.77-14.43mg/kg的范围内,分别。摄入羽衣甘蓝,甜菜,红薯,太郎,茄子和胡萝卜具有很高的潜在健康风险。该研究为Tl污染地区的蔬菜生产提供了科学指导,并有助于选择适合避免从污染土壤中吸收Tl的蔬菜品种。
    Soil thallium (Tl) pollution is a serious environmental problem, and vegetables are the primary pathway for human exposure to Tl. Therefore, it is important to investigate the characteristics of soil Tl uptake by vegetables. In this study, the meta-analysis approach was first applied to explore the relationship between Tl content in vegetables and soil environment, as well as key factors influencing soil physical-chemical properties, and to derive soil thresholds for Tl. The results indicated that various types of vegetables have different capabilities for Tl accumulation. Vegetables from contaminated areas showed high Tl accumulation, and the geomean Tl content in different types of vegetables was in the following order: leafy > root-stalk > solanaceous vegetables. Taro and kale had significantly higher capability to accumulate soil Tl among the 35 species studied, with Tl bioconcentration factor values of 0.060 and 0.133, respectively. Pearson correlation analysis and meta-analysis revealed that the Tl content in vegetables was significantly correlated with soil pH and Tl content in soil. The linear predictive model for Tl accumulation in vegetables based on soil Tl content described the data well, and the fitting coefficient R2 increased with soil pH value. According to potential dietary toxicity, the derived soil Tl thresholds for all, leafy and root-stalk vegetables increased with an increase in soil pH, and were in the range of 1.46-6.72, 1.74-5.26 and 0.92-6.06 mg/kg, respectively. The soil Tl thresholds for kale, lettuce and carrot were in the range of 0.24-4.89, 2.94-3.32 and 3.77-14.43 mg/kg, respectively. Ingestion of kale, beet, sweet potato, potato, taro, pepper, turnip, Chinese cabbage, eggplant and carrot poses potential health risks. The study provides scientific guidance for vegetable production in Tl-contaminated areas and can help with the selection of vegetable species suitable for avoiding the absorption of Tl from contaminated soil.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    如果粉末可能是自由的或容易流动的,则粉末离析可在用于控制内容物均匀性的药物工艺中引起严重问题。由于样品的可获得性有限,在配制阶段评估配制粉末的离析强度是有挑战性的。使用小型试验台规模的测试人员进行高级隔离评估可用于制定决策和建议过程中的操作条件,这在以前没有被实际调查过。在这项研究中,八种配方(两种共加工的赋形剂与一种活性药物成分以不同的比例混合)用于两种类型的台式测试器(空气诱导和表面滚动偏析测试仪)的偏析研究,和试验模拟过程钻机作为比较研究。结果表明,如果偏析强度不超过20%,则在台式测试仪上测得的偏析可以很好地指示混合物的偏析强度。比较还表明,两种台秤测试仪都与过程钻机具有良好的相关性,分别,这意味着任一偏析测试仪可以独立用于评估。探索了线性回归模型来预测过程中的偏析。
    Powder segregation can cause severe issues in processes of pharmaceutical drugs for control of content uniformity if the powder is likely to be free or easy flowing. Assessing segregation intensity of formulated powders in a process is challenging at the formulation stage because of the limited availability of samples. An advanced segregation evaluation using small bench-scale testers can be useful for formulation decisions and suggestions of operation conditions in the process, which has not been practically investigated before. In this study, eight formulations (two co-processed excipients blended with one active pharmaceutical ingredient at different ratios) were used for the segregation study on two types of bench-scale testers (air-induced and surface rolling segregation tester), and a pilot simulation process rig as a comparative study. The results show that segregation measured on the bench-scale testers can give a good indication of the segregation intensity of a blend if the segregation intensity is not more than 20%. The comparison also shows that both the bench-scale testers have a good correlation to the process rig, respectively, which means either segregation tester can be used independently for the evaluation. A linear regression model was explored for prediction of segregation in the process.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    肠道细菌和免疫系统之间的相互作用有助于维持健康个体的功能性肠道屏障。可能还有全身免疫活动。我们假设肠道细菌与健康成人先天和适应性免疫反应的系统性生物标志物相关。对79个免疫功能标志物进行因子分析,得出17个免疫因子(IFs),每个由2-10个免疫变量组成。通过16SrRNA扩增子序列分析在家族和属水平上鉴定来自粪便样品的细菌分类群,并且在多元线性回归模型中利用它们的读段计数和相对丰度来鉴定与IF相关的微生物分类群。在细菌分类群和IF之间鉴定出总共10个显著关联。Rikenellaceae家族与先天性IF5(包括5种趋化因子,2细胞因子,2粘附分子,和巨噬细胞代谢物新蝶呤)以及与适应性IF4(包括具有激活标记HLA-DR的T细胞)的负相关。此外,假单胞菌科及其假单胞菌属与先天性IF5呈负相关,适应性IF13(包括T细胞细胞因子IL-10,IL-17和IFN-γ)与丁酸弧菌呈负相关,与Slackia呈正相关。这些关联表明健康成年人的肠道细菌和全身免疫系统之间正在进行的相互作用。这些分类单元与IFs的关联可能是由特定的微生物-免疫系统相互作用引起的,这些相互作用在我们的健康成人队列中在维持健康屏障完整性中起作用。重要性慢性炎症可能随着时间的推移,在健康的成年人中,由于多种因素,例如不良的饮食直接影响肠道微生物组的组成,或者导致肥胖,这也可能影响肠道微生物组。这些影响可能会触发免疫反应的激活,最终导致炎症相关疾病,比如结肠癌。在疾病发展之前,可能有可能鉴定归因于通常在肠道中发现的特定肠道细菌的亚临床炎症或免疫激活,这可能导致未来的不良健康影响。在本研究中,我们研究了一组年龄范围广泛且有肥胖和无肥胖的健康男性和女性,以确定哪些细菌与特定类型的免疫激活相关,从而确定炎症性疾病风险的潜在临床前标志物.发现了一些可能有助于制定饮食干预措施以降低疾病风险的协会。
    OBJECTIVE: Chronic inflammation may develop over time in healthy adults as a result of a variety of factors, such as poor diet directly affecting the composition of the intestinal microbiome, or by causing obesity, which may also affect the intestinal microbiome. These effects may trigger the activation of an immune response that could eventually lead to an inflammation-related disease, such as colon cancer. Before disease develops it may be possible to identify subclinical inflammation or immune activation attributable to specific intestinal bacteria normally found in the gut that could result in future adverse health impacts. In the present study, we examined a group of healthy men and women across a wide age range with and without obesity to determine which bacteria were associated with particular types of immune activation to identify potential preclinical markers of inflammatory disease risk. Several associations were found that may help develop dietary interventions to lower disease risk.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    气压过程分离(BaPS)是一种自动实验室系统,用于同时测量土壤样品中的微生物呼吸和总硝化速率。为了确保最佳功能,传感器系统,由一个压力传感器组成,O2传感器,CO2浓度传感器,和两个温度探头,必须精确校准。对于传感器的定期现场质量控制,我们开发容易,便宜,和灵活的校准程序。通过差动压力计校准压力传感器。通过将O2和CO2传感器暴露于通过依次交换O2/N2和CO2/N2校准气体获得的一系列O2和CO2浓度来同时校准O2和CO2传感器。线性回归模型最适合描述记录的校准数据。O2和CO2校准的准确性主要受所用气体混合物的准确性影响。因为所应用的测量方法是基于ZrO2的O2电导率,所以O2传感器特别容易老化和随之而来的信号偏移。传感器信号的特点是多年来的高时间稳定性。校准参数的偏差对测量的总硝化速率的影响高达12.5%,对呼吸速率的影响高达5%。总的来说,建议的校准程序是宝贵的工具,以确保质量的BaPS测量和及时识别传感器故障。
    Barometric process separation (BaPS) is an automated laboratory system for the simultaneous measurement of microbial respiration and gross nitrification rates in soil samples. To ensure optimal functioning, the sensor system, consisting of a pressure sensor, an O2 sensor, a CO2 concentration sensor, and two temperature probes, must be accurately calibrated. For the regular on-site quality control of the sensors, we developed easy, inexpensive, and flexible calibration procedures. The pressure sensor was calibrated by means of a differential manometer. The O2 and CO2 sensors were simultaneously calibrated through their exposure to a sequence of O2 and CO2 concentrations obtained by sequentially exchanging O2/N2 and CO2/N2 calibration gases. Linear regression models were best suited for describing the recorded calibration data. The accuracy of O2 and CO2 calibration was mainly affected by the accuracy of the utilized gas mixtures. Because the applied measuring method is based on the O2 conductivity of ZrO2, the O2 sensor is particularly susceptible to aging and to consequent signal shifts. Sensor signals were characterized by high temporal stability over the years. Deviations in the calibration parameters affected the measured gross nitrification rate by up to 12.5% and affected the respiration rate by up to 5%. Overall, the proposed calibration procedures are valuable tools for ensuring the quality of BaPS measurements and for promptly identifying sensor malfunctions.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    自闭症谱系障碍(ASD)的早期准确诊断和量身定制的治疗干预措施可以改善预后。ADOS-2是ASD诊断的标准化测试。然而,由于ASD的异质性,假阳性的存在仍然是临床医生面临的挑战.在这项研究中,ASD和多系统发育障碍(MSDD)患者的回顾性数据,一个术语,用于描述3岁以下的儿童,沟通受损,但有强烈的情感依恋,通过机器学习(ML)模型进行测试,以评估疾病发展的最佳预测因子以及最能描述这两种自闭症谱系障碍表现的项目。母婴数据以及ADOS-2评分被包括在不同的ML测试模型中。根据要估计的结果,选择了表现最好的模型.RIDGE回归模型显示ADOS社会影响评分的最佳预测因子为肠道紊乱,脑电图检索,和睡眠问题。线性回归模型显示,足月妊娠,精神运动发育状况,和肠道紊乱最多预测ADOS重复和受限行为评分。LASSO回归模型显示,脑电图检索,睡眠障碍,诊断时的年龄,足月妊娠,出生时的体重,肠道紊乱,和神经系统检查结果是总体ADOS评分的最佳预测因子.CART分类和回归模型显示,诊断年龄和出生体重最能区分ASD和MSDD。
    Early and accurate diagnosis of autism spectrum disorders (ASD) and tailored therapeutic interventions can improve prognosis. ADOS-2 is a standardized test for ASD diagnosis. However, owing to ASD heterogeneity, the presence of false positives remains a challenge for clinicians. In this study, retrospective data from patients with ASD and multi-systemic developmental disorder (MSDD), a term used to describe children under the age of 3 with impaired communication but with strong emotional attachments, were tested by machine learning (ML) models to assess the best predictors of disease development as well as the items that best describe these two autism spectrum disorder presentations. Maternal and infant data as well as ADOS-2 score were included in different ML testing models. Depending on the outcome to be estimated, a best-performing model was selected. RIDGE regression model showed that the best predictors for ADOS social affect score were gut disturbances, EEG retrievals, and sleep problems. Linear Regression Model showed that term pregnancy, psychomotor development status, and gut disturbances were predicting at best for the ADOS Repetitive and Restricted Behavior score. The LASSO regression model showed that EEG retrievals, sleep disturbances, age at diagnosis, term pregnancy, weight at birth, gut disturbances, and neurological findings were the best predictors for the overall ADOS score. The CART classification and regression model showed that age at diagnosis and weight at birth best discriminate between ASD and MSDD.
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