背景:医疗保健行业对环境的影响约占全球二氧化碳排放量的4.6%,加剧了气候危机。然而,卫生部门的排放对人类健康的影响没有定期评估。我们的目标是估计欧盟(EU)内卫生部门的碳足迹的健康负担和相关成本。
方法:我们通过考虑四种情况,根据人类健康损害因子(DALYs/kg-CO2e)计算了残疾调整生命年(DALYs)和相关成本。共享社会经济途径的三种情景(S1-高增长,S2-基线,和S3-低增长)代表了全球社会的变化,人口统计,和经济学,直到2100年。第四种情况(S4)考虑了当前欧盟55%的温室气体减排目标。2019年医疗保健行业的人均排放量(二氧化碳当量)是从《柳叶刀倒计时》中提取的,并从欧盟统计局检索了同年的人口数据。
结果:在欧盟,365,047DALYs(95CI:194,692-535,403)预计将由卫生部门的基线排放(S2)引起。在S1场景中,负担将略有下降至316,374DALYs(95CI:170,355-462,393),而S3方案将增加486,730DALYs(95CI:243,365-681,422)。如果欧盟的碳排放目标得以实现,负担可以大大减少到164,271DALYs(95CI:87,611-240,931)。成本可能高达256亿欧元,当考虑DALYs货币化时。
结论:卫生部门的二氧化碳排放预计将对人类健康产生重大影响。因此,重要的是要确保欧盟公共建筑的气候政策符合《巴黎协定》,增加对医疗保健部门气候缓解计划的资金,并审查当地的临床实践。
BACKGROUND: The healthcare sector has an environmental impact of around 4.6% of global CO2 emissions, contributing to aggravating the climate crisis. However, the impact of the health sector\'s emissions on human health is not regularly assessed. We aim to estimate the health burden and associated costs of the health sector\'s carbon footprint within the European Union (EU).
METHODS: We calculated disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and associated costs based on human health damage factors (DALYs/kg-CO2e) by considering four scenarios. Three scenarios for shared socioeconomic pathways (S1 - high growth, S2 - baseline, and S3 - low growth) represented variations of global society, demographics, and economics until 2100. A fourth scenario (S4) considered the current EU\'s 55% reduction goal of greenhouse gas emissions. The healthcare sector\'s emissions per capita (in CO2-equivalent) in 2019 were extracted from the Lancet Countdown, and population data were retrieved from Eurostat for the same year.
RESULTS: In the EU, 365,047 DALYs (95%CI: 194,692-535,403) are expected to be caused by the health sector\'s emissions at baseline (S2). In an S1 scenario, the burden would slightly decrease to 316,374 DALYs (95%CI: 170,355-462,393), whereas a S3 scenario would increase 486,730 DALYs (95%CI: 243,365-681,422). If EU\'s carbon goals are met, the burden could be substantially reduced to 164,271 DALYs (95%CI: 87,611-240,931). Costs can amount to 25.6 billion euros, when considering DALYs monetisation.
CONCLUSIONS: CO2 emissions from the health sector are expected to significantly impact human health. Therefore, it is important to ensure that EU climate policies for public buildings are in line with the Paris Agreement, increase funding for climate mitigation programs within the healthcare sector, and review clinical practices at the local level.