Autosomal polycystic kidney disease (ADPKD) is the most common genetic form of kidney failure, reflecting unmet needs in management. Prescription of the only approved treatment (tolvaptan) is limited to persons with rapidly progressing ADPKD. Rapid progression may be diagnosed by assessing glomerular filtration rate (GFR) decline, usually estimated (eGFR) from equations based on serum creatinine (eGFRcr) or cystatin-C (eGFRcys). We have assessed the concordance between eGFR decline and identification of rapid progression (rapid eGFR loss), and measured GFR (mGFR) declines (rapid mGFR loss) using iohexol clearance in 140 adults with ADPKD with ≥3 mGFR and eGFRcr assessments, of which 97 also had eGFRcys assessments. The agreement between mGFR and eGFR decline was poor: mean concordance correlation coefficients (CCCs) between the method declines were low (0.661, range 0.628 to 0.713), and Bland and Altman limits of agreement between eGFR and mGFR declines were wide. CCC was lower for eGFRcys. From a practical point of view, creatinine-based formulas failed to detect rapid mGFR loss (-3 mL/min/y or faster) in around 37% of the cases. Moreover, formulas falsely indicated around 40% of the cases with moderate or stable decline as rapid progressors. The reliability of formulas in detecting real mGFR decline was lower in the non-rapid-progressors group with respect to that in rapid-progressor patients. The performance of eGFRcys and eGFRcr-cys equations was even worse. In conclusion, eGFR decline may misrepresent mGFR decline in ADPKD in a significant percentage of patients, potentially misclassifying them as progressors or non-progressors and impacting decisions of initiation of tolvaptan therapy.

To investigate the association between estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) change and mortality risk in a cohort from the Middle East and North Africa region with increasing chronic kidney disease burden.
We included 2210 participants aged ≥ 50 years from the prospective cohort of the Tehran Lipid and Glucose Study. The interval for eGFR measurement was between the examinations in 2002-2005 to 2009-2011, and participants were followed through March 2018. Glomerular filtration rate was estimated from serum creatinine using the CKD-EPI creatinine equation. We assessed the association of rapid kidney function decline, (defined as annual eGFR decline ≥ 3 ml/min/1.73 m2 per year); ≥ 30% eGFR decline over six years; and certain drop in kidney function (≥ 25% eGFR decline plus drop in eGFR category) with mortality outcomes.
During a median follow-up of 14.3 years after recruitment, 315 all-cause and 112 cardiovascular disease deaths were recorded. The multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of all-cause death for rapid kidney function decline, ≥ 30% decline in eGFR over 6 years, and drop in kidney function were 1.68 (1.24-2.27), 2.01 (1.46-2.78), and 1.49 (1.11-1.98), respectively. The HRs of all-cause death and for rapid kidney function decline in those without and with chronic kidney disease were 1.41 (1.03-1.91) and 3.38 (1.69-6.76), respectively. Similar findings were observed regarding cardiovascular disease-related and non-cardiovascular disease-related mortality.
Estimated GFR decline is associated with an increased mortality risk, indicating its ability to provide additional prognostic information beyond traditional risk predictors in the general population.

UNASSIGNED: Glomerular filtration rate (GFR) decline ≥30% over 2 years can substitute for the conventional \'doubling of serum creatinine\' to predict end-stage renal disease in patients with native kidneys. While chronic kidney disease trajectory is less predictable in transplanted patients, recent data have suggested that similar GFR decline might be an acceptable surrogate for long-term transplant outcome. We sought (i) to confirm the prognostic value of an early GFR decline in kidney transplant recipients and (ii) to determine whether using direct measurement of GFR with inulin improves the performance of this surrogate.
UNASSIGNED: We retrospectively analysed all recipients transplanted between 1989 and 2000 in our centre, with inulin-measured and Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration (CKD-EPI)-estimated GFR at 1 and 5 years post-transplant, and evaluated the performance [time-dependent area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC AUC) and subdistribution hazard ratio (sdHR) with competing risk model] of GFR change to predict graft failure and all-cause mortality.
UNASSIGNED: Out of 417 kidney transplant recipients, 116 patients had lost their graft and 77 had died 16 years after transplantation. While being significantly associated with graft failure [sdHR = 2.37 (95% confidence interval 1.47-3.83)], CKD-EPI-GFR decline ≥30% failed to appropriately predict long-term graft survival (C-statistics of 0.63). Concordance between inulin-GFR and CKD-EPI-GFR to detect similar GFR change was only 53%. Inulin-GFR change was, however, not a better predictor (C-statistics of 0.59). Comparable results were observed for mortality.
UNASSIGNED: Our data suggest that early GFR decline is a poor surrogate for long-term transplant outcome, even when change in GFR is directly measured by a reference method.

Our objective of this study was to determine if rate of estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) decline and its intensity was associated with cardiovascular risk and death in patients with hypertension whose baseline eGFR was higher than 60 ml/minute/1.73 m2.
This study comprised 2,516 patients with hypertension who had had at least 2 serum creatinine measurements over a 4-year period. An eGFR reduction of ≥10% per year has been deemed as high eGFR and a reduction in eGFR of less than 10% per year as a low decline. The end points were coronary artery disease, stroke, transitory ischemic accident, peripheral arterial disease, heart failure, atrial fibrillation, and death from any cause. Cox regression analyses adjusted for potentially confounding factors were conducted.
A total of 2,354 patients with low rate of eGFR decline and 149 with high rate of eGFR decline were analyzed. The adjusted model shows that a -10% rate of eGFR decline per year is associated with a higher risk of the primary end point (HR 1.9; 95% CI 1.1-3.5; P = 0.02) and arteriosclerotic vascular disease (HR 2.2; 95% CI 1.2-4.2; P < 0.001) in all hypertensive groups. The variables associated to high/low rate of eGFR decline in the logistic regression model were serum creatinine (OR 3.35; P < 0.001), gender, women (OR 15.3; P < 0.001), tobacco user (OR 1.9; P < 0.002), and pulse pressure (OR 0.99; P < 0.05).
A rate of eGFR decline equal to or higher than -10% per year is a marker of cardiovascular risk for patients with arterial hypertension without chronic kidney disease at baseline. It may be useful to consider intensifying the global risk approach for these patients.

BACKGROUND: Metabolic acidosis is known to accelerate the progression of chronic kidney disease (CKD). However, whether undetermined anions as indicated by the adjusted anion gap (aAG) are associated with estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) decline in patients with CKD is unclear.
METHODS: Data from 42 patients with CKD (baseline eGFR, 7.1-52.0 ml/min/ 1.73 m2) without massive proteinuria (urinary protein-creatinine ratio, UPCR <3.5) were retrospectively analyzed. aAG was calculated from serum sodium, serum chloride, serum bicarbonate, serum albumin, serum potassium, serum calcium and serum phosphate. The association between the percentage of the 6-month change of eGFR (%ΔeGFR/6m) and aAG was examined.
RESULTS: The mean baseline eGFR was 27.5 ± 11.1 ml/min/1.73 m2 and the mean %ΔeGFR/6m was 13.8 ± 10.3. UPCR and aAG were 1.13 ± 0.93 and 9.48 ± 1.88, respectively. %ΔeGFR/6m was associated with aAG (r = 0.438, p < 0.005), but not with UPCR (r = 0.194, p = 0.218). In multivariate linear regression analyses, aAG remained significantly associated with %ΔeGFR/6m (β = 0.45, p < 0.01) after controlling for age, baseline eGFR, UPCR and HCO3- concentration.
CONCLUSIONS: These data suggest that aAG appears to be associated with the progression of CKD. aAG might be an independent predictor of CKD progression.