Multiannual population cycles of small mammals are of interest within population biology. We propose an approach for multidimensional autoregressive (AR) time series and analyse monitoring data on grey-sided voles (Myodes rufocanus) in Japan to investigate one or possibly multiple multiannual cycles that drive population dynamics. Temperature, through modifying rodent communities, is found to be a key factor shaping population dynamics. Warmer areas are the main habitat for other rodent species resulting in low vole abundance/dominance, as opposed to higher vole dominance in colder areas-a pattern associated with the AR structure and population cycle. Vole populations in simple rodent communities exhibit an AR(2) cycle of 2-3 years. In areas with complex rodent communities, vole dynamics follows an AR(4) process and a combination of two cycles with different lengths. The AR structure varies in relatively small spatial scales, thus widening the scope of AR analyses needed. Historically, vole abundance increased in the late 1970s and decreased from the 1980s, with warm winters shown to be associated with the decline of vole abundance in the AR(4) populations. This significant association between the AR order, population dynamics, temperature and rodent community provides insights into the declining trends observed in rodent populations of the Northern Hemisphere.

Understanding the different factors shaping the spatial and temporal distribution of marine microorganisms is fundamental in predicting their responses to future environmental disturbances. There has been, however, little effort to characterize the microbial diversity including the microbiome dynamics among regions in the Caribbean Sea. Toward this end, this study was designed to gain some critical insights into microbial diversity within the coastal marine ecosystem off the coast of Puerto Rico. Using Illumina MiSeq, the V4 region of the 16S rRNA gene was sequenced with the goal of characterizing the microbial diversity representative of different coastal sites around the island of Puerto Rico. This study provided valuable insights in terms of the local bacterial taxonomic abundance, α and β diversity, and the environmental factors shaping microbial community composition and structure. The most dominant phyla across all 11 sampling sites were the Proteobacteria, Bacteroidetes, and Planctomycetes, while the least dominant taxonomic groups were the NKB19, Tenericutes, OP3, Lentisphaerae, and SAR406. The geographical area (Caribbean and Atlantic seas) and salinity gradients were the main drivers shaping the marine microbial community around the island. Despite stable physical and chemical features of the different sites, a highly dynamic microbiome was observed. This highlights Caribbean waters as one of the richest marine sources for a microbial biodiversity hotspot. The data presented here provide a basis for further temporal evaluations aiming at deciphering microbial taxonomic diversity around the island, while determining how microbes adapt to changes in the climate.

The Yangtze River Estuary (YRE) is one of the areas in China most severely affected by harmful algal blooms (HABs). This study explored the distributive patterns of HABs in the YRE and how they are influenced by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and other environmental factors. Quantitative real-time PCR (qPCR) was employed to detect and quantify the four predominant HAB species in the YRE, Karenia mikimotoi, Margalefidinium polykrikoides, Prorocentrum donghaiense, and Heterosigma akashiwo. Additionally, the study analyzed how turbidity, pH, salinity, and temperature influence these algae. Distribution of the four HAB species in the YRE area shows clear geographical variations: K. mikimotoi is predominantly found in the northwest and central sea areas, M. polykrikoides (East Asian Ribotype, EAR) is mainly distributed in the southeastern part, P. donghaiense is abundant in the northern regions, and H. akashiwo is especially prevalent at stations S26 and S27 in the northeastern part of the study area. HABs dominated by H. akashiwo and P. donghaiense were observed in the northeastern sea area of the YRE on July 22, 2020. Our study reveals that K. mikimotoi, M. polykrikoides (EAR), and P. donghaiense are mainly affected by turbidity, pH, and salinity, while temperature predominantly influences the blooms of H. akashiwo. Moreover, runoff in the YRE has a certain correlation with ENSO events, which may also impact the nutrient content of the region. The findings of this study illustrate the distributive patterns of the four HAB species under various ecological conditions in the YRE and emphasize the importance of establishing practical cases for future warning systems. To better understand how climate change affects HABs, exploring the link between ENSO and HABs is essential.

Climate change at the global scale affects the watershed\'s hydrology and the river\'s hydrodynamic, water temperature (WT), and habitat conditions of organisms. This article proposes a quantitative assessment methodology framework for analyzing the impact of GCC on the cold-water fish habitat. This framework integrated GCC, downscaling, hydrological, hydrodynamic, water temperature, and habitat models and was applied to the source region of the Yellow River (SRYR), where there are Gymnocypris eckloni (G. eckloni) resource reduction problems. In this study, we developed a high-precision, loosely integrated hydrological, hydrodynamic, WT coupling model for SWAT-MIKE21 in the SRYR. The optimal latitude and longitude range (6° × 6°) covering the SRYR was established for downscaling, and future meteorological data under three GCC models was obtained. The main results present the discharge of spawning, and juvenile G. eckloni indicates an increasing trend from the radiation forcing low to high and from the near now to the future term. The WT increased (decreased) in April and June (May), with a maximum increase/decrease of 3.1°C (SSP370 in 2100)/1.4°C (SSP585 in 2050). The weighted useable area (WUA) demonstrated a trend of severe fluctuations in May, June, and October, and other months are equal to the base year. Total WUA (TWUA) displayed an increasing trend, with the maximum increase in spawning and juvenile period being 134.46% and 270.89%, respectively. Ultimately, the rise in confluence discharge and WT caused by GCC in the SRYR benefits spawning and juvenile G. eckloni. The results have guiding significance for the development of long-term and adaptive protection and restoration measures for G. eckloni, and provide a plan for predicting the impact of climate change on other organisms in river ecosystems in high-altitude cold regions.

Knowing the impacts of global climate change on the habitat suitability distribution of Limassolla leafhoppers contributes to understanding the feedback of organisms on climate change from a macroecological perspective, and provides important scientific basis for protecting the ecological environment and biodiversity. However, there is limited knowledge on this aspect. Thus, our study aimed to address this gap by analyzing Asian habitat suitability and centroid shifts of Limassolla based on 19 bioclimatic variables and occurrence records. Selecting five ecological niche models with the outstanding predictive performance (Maxlike, generalized linear model, generalized additive model, random forest, and maximum entropy) along with their ensemble model from 12 models, the current habitat suitability of Limassolla and its future habitat suitability under two Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5) in the 2050s and 2090s were predicted. The results showed that the prediction results of the five models are generally consistent. Based on ensemble model, 11 potential biodiversity hotspots with high suitability were identified. With climate change, the suitable range of Limassolla will experience both expansion and contraction. In SSP5-8.52050s, the expansion area is 118.56 × 104 km2, while the contraction area is 25.40 × 104 km2; in SSP1-2.62090s, the expansion area is 91.71 × 104 km2, and the contraction area is 26.54 × 104 km2. Furthermore, the distribution core of Limassolla will shift toward higher latitudes in the northeast direction, and the precipitation of warmest quarter was found to have the greatest impact on the distribution of Limassolla. Our research results supported our four hypotheses. Finally, this research suggests establishing ecological reserves in identified contraction to prevent habitat loss, enhancing the protection of biodiversity hotspots, and pursuing a sustainable development path with reduced emissions.

Microplastic (MP) pollution likely affects global soil carbon (C) dynamics, yet it remains uncertain how and to what extent MP influences soil respiration. Here, we report on a global meta-analysis to determine the effects of MP pollution on the soil microbiome and CO2 emission. We found that MP pollution significantly increased the contents of soil organic C (SOC) (21%) and dissolved organic C (DOC) (12%), the activity of fluorescein diacetate hydrolase (FDAse) (10%), and microbial biomass (17%), but led to a decrease in microbial diversity (3%). In particular, increases in soil C components and microbial biomass further promote CO2 emission (25%) from soil, but with a much higher effect of MPs on these emissions than on soil C components and microbial biomass. The effect could be attributed to the opposite effects of MPs on microbial biomass vs. diversity, as soil MP accumulation recruited some functionally important bacteria and provided additional C substrates for specific heterotrophic microorganisms, while inhibiting the growth of autotrophic taxa (e.g., Chloroflexi, Cyanobacteria). This study reveals that MP pollution can increase soil CO2 emission by causing shifts in the soil microbiome. These results underscore the potential importance of plastic pollution for terrestrial C fluxes, and thus climate feedbacks.

Global climate change intensifies the water cycle and makes freshest waters become fresher and vice-versa. But how this change impacts phytoplankton in coastal, particularly harmful algal blooms (HABs), remains poorly understood. Here, we monitored a coastal bay for a decade and found a significant correlation between salinity decline and the increase of Karenia mikimotoi blooms. To examine the physiological linkage between salinity decreases and K. mikimotoi blooms, we compare chemical, physiological and multi-omic profiles of this species in laboratory cultures under high (33) and low (25) salinities. Under low salinity, photosynthetic efficiency and capacity as well as growth rate and cellular protein content were significantly higher than that under high salinity. More strikingly, the omics data show that low salinity activated the glyoxylate shunt to bypass the decarboxylation reaction in the tricarboxylic acid cycle, hence redirecting carbon from CO2 release to biosynthesis. Furthermore, the enhanced glyoxylate cycle could promote hydrogen peroxide metabolism, consistent with the detected decrease in reactive oxygen species. These findings suggest that salinity declines can reprogram metabolism to enhance cell proliferation, thus promoting bloom formation in HAB species like K. mikimotoi, which has important ecological implications for future climate-driven salinity declines in the coastal ocean with respect to HAB outbreaks.

Numerous unique flora and fauna inhabit the Lower Florida Keys, including the endangered Florida Key deer, found nowhere else. In this vulnerable habitat of flat islands with low elevation, accelerated sea level rise poses a threat. Predicting the impact of sea level rise on vegetation and wildlife is crucial. This study used 5 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) sea level rise scenarios to assess their effects on No Name Key, Florida. The goal was to estimate changes in the Florida Key deer population relative to sea level rise using a lidar-derived elevation data and a vegetation map. The method used 2 cases to model the sea level rise impact. In Case 1, total non-submerged area at current sea level was determined. Using 5 IPCC scenarios, a new total non-submerged land area was estimated, and deer numbers were predicted for each scenario. In Case 2, upward migration of coastal vegetation combined with the coastal squeeze process was modeled. A distinct elevation range for each vegetation type at the current sea level was determined. Vegetation ranges were redistributed based on respective elevation ranges in the sea level rise scenarios. Areas for each vegetation type were recalculated, and Key deer numbers were estimated for each sea level rise scenario. Results under the worst emission scenario showed the following: (1) for case 1, the land area was reduced to 30 % of the current land area, corresponding to having about 27 deer, and (2) for case 2, the land area was reduced to 70 % of the current land area, having about 54 deer on No Name Key. The results indicated reduced non-submerged land area and less upland vegetation, particularly hardwoods/hammocks, by the year 2100. As less land area is available, a decline in Key deer population is expected as sea levels rise. Since Key deer favor upland vegetation, habitat affected by sea level rise will likely support a smaller deer population. The findings emphasize the need for precise, timely predictions of sea level rise impacts and long-term conservation strategies. Specifically designed measures are required to protect and maintain endangered wildlife, such as the Florida Key deer, residing on these vulnerable islands.

BACKGROUND: Global climate change is causing an increase in extreme high temperatures (EHTs), which subject insects to unprecedented stress. Behavior plasticity in response to EHTs, particularly oviposition behavior, is important for the persistence and outbreak of insect populations. Investigating the plasticity of oviposition behavior and its underlying mechanisms has theoretical importance to pest management, but knowledge gaps still remain.
RESULTS: Herein, we characterized the reproductive traits of Monochamus alternatus, a dominant insect vector of the destructive pine wilt disease, including oviposition behavioral patterns, fecundity, offspring fitness and sperm viability, under simulated heatwave conditions in the laboratory. The results showed that (i) EHTs induced a novel oviposition behavior, whereby females deposited multiple eggs into a single groove rather than laying one egg per groove under normal condition; (ii) EHTs exerted stage- and sex-specific effects on fecundity, offspring fitness and sperm viability; and (iii) there was a significant correlation between frequency of the novel oviposition strategy and sperm viability.
CONCLUSIONS: We hypothesized that this beetle pest has the ability to flexibly shift towards a low-cost oviposition strategy to counteract the fitness costs caused by heat stress. Taken together, these findings provide a theoretical foundation for personalized pest management strategies in the context of climate change. © 2024 Society of Chemical Industry.

Global climate change (GCC) is posing a serious threat to organisms, particularly plants, which are sessile. Drought, salinity, and the accumulation of heavy metals alter soil composition and have detrimental effects on crops and wild plants. The hormone auxin plays a pivotal role in the response to stress conditions through the fine regulation of plant growth. Hence, rapid, tight, and coordinated regulation of its concentration is achieved by auxin modulation at multiple levels. Beyond the structural enzymes involved in auxin biosynthesis, transport, and signal transduction, transcription factors (TFs) can finely and rapidly drive auxin response in specific tissues. Auxin Response Factors (ARFs) such as the ARF4, 7, 8, 19 and many other TF families, such as WRKY and MADS, have been identified to play a role in modulating various auxin-mediated responses in recent times. Here, we review the most relevant and recent literature on TFs associated with the regulation of the biosynthetic, transport, and signalling auxin pathways and miRNA-related feedback loops in response to major abiotic stresses. Knowledge of the specific role of TFs may be of utmost importance in counteracting the effects of GCC on future agriculture and may pave the way for increased plant resilience.