目标:由于气候变化导致的栖息地适宜性变化正在导致范围变化,在寒冷的山脉边缘可能有新的栖息地。我们必须预测这些范围的变化,但是预测人员对植物生理耐受性的遗传差异如何影响范围变化的了解有限。这里,我们专注于物种范围的一个主要决定因素-对极端寒冷的生理耐受性-询问近几十年来的变暖和遗传变异如何影响复杂景观的扩张。
方法:我们从来自13个地点的18个基因型的9年耐寒性数据中检查了基因型在最大耐寒性方面的变化。使用葡萄葡萄(葡萄子。vinifera)作为案例研究。将贝叶斯分层剂量反应模型与网格化气候数据相结合,然后,我们预测1949年至2016年期间,葡萄葡萄附近的气候适宜性变化。
结果:植物随着空气温度的降低而非线性地增加了最大抗寒性(最大抗寒性:-23.6°C),但在基因型之间存在很大差异(到2°C)。我们的研究结果表明,自1980年代以来,降低冻伤风险使条件更有利于所有基因型在寒冷的范围边缘,但是条件仍然更有利于更耐寒的基因型和温暖的地区。栖息地适宜性存在很大的空间差异,大多数适当温暖的栖息地位于狭窄的南北方向的地带。
结论:我们强调了在评估气候变化带来的范围偏移潜力时,基因型差异在生理耐受性中的重要性。栖息地的改善在空间复杂的景观中分布不均,虽然,强调扩散在范围扩张中的重要性。
Changes in habitat suitability due to climate change are causing range shifts, with new habitat potentially available at cold range edges. We must predict these range shifts, but forecasters have limited knowledge of how genetic differences in plant physiological tolerances influence range shifts. Here, we focus on a major determinant of species ranges-physiological tolerance to extreme cold-to ask how warming over recent decades and genetic variation shape expansion across complex landscapes.
We examined how genotypes vary in maximum cold tolerance from 9 years of cold hardiness data across 18 genotypes from 13 sites, using winegrapes (Vitis vinifera subsp. vinifera) as a case study. Combining a Bayesian hierarchical dose-response model with gridded climate data, we then project changes in climatic suitability near winegrapes\' current cold range-edge between 1949 and 2016.
Plants increased maximum cold hardiness non-linearly with decreasing air temperature (maximum cold hardiness: -23.6°C), but with substantial (by 2°C) variation across genotypes. Our results suggest, since the 1980s, decreasing freeze injury risk has made conditions more favorable for all genotypes at the cold range-edge, but conditions remained more favorable for more cold hardy genotypes and in warmer areas. There was substantial spatial variation in habitat suitability, with the majority of suitably warm habitat located in a narrow north-south oriented strip.
We highlight the importance of genotypic differences in physiological tolerances when assessing range shift potential with climate change. Habitat improvements were unevenly distributed over the spatially complex landscape, though, emphasizing the importance of dispersal in range expansion.