背景:老年人中的跌倒是救护车运输使用增加的重要原因。认识到今后对策的重要性,我们估计了与跌倒相关的紧急医疗服务(EMS)呼叫的预计数量和百分比.
方法:我们检查了性别,年龄组,以及2013年至2021年在札幌市联系急诊服务的65岁以上患者的跌倒位置。计算了每个人口亚组的年度秋季相关呼叫,并对趋势进行了分析。使用四个模型来估计2025-2060年预测人口的未来与跌倒相关的呼叫数量:(1)根据2022年的数据,使用(2)泊松级数对2013-2022年数据进行估计,(3)神经网络,(4)使用神经网络对2013-2019年的数据进行估计。还使用相同的方法来确定所有EMS呼叫的数量以获得所有EMS呼叫的比率。
结果:在2013-2022年期间,为年龄≥65岁的人拨打了70,262次与跌倒相关的电话。在大多数年龄组中,女性在室内的比率较高,男性在室外的比率较高,并且随着年龄的增长而增加。在调整了年龄之后,率逐年上升。未来对秋季来电数量的估计在2040年约为2022年的两倍,2060年为三倍,在2040年和2060年,下跌约占所有EMS来电的11%和13%。
结论:预计未来老年人中与跌倒相关的EMS呼叫数量将会增加,EMS呼叫的百分比也会增加;因此,迫切需要对策。
BACKGROUND: Falls among older individuals contribute significantly to the rise in ambulance transport use. To recognize the importance of future countermeasures, we estimated the projected number and percentage of fall-related emergency medical service (EMS) calls.
METHODS: We examined the sex, age group, and location of falls among patients aged ≥ 65 years who contacted emergency services in Sapporo City from 2013 to 2021. Annual fall-related calls per population subgroup were calculated, and trends were analyzed. Four models were used to estimate the future number of fall-related calls from the 2025-2060 projected population: (1) based on the 2022 data, estimates from the 2013-2022 data using (2) Poisson progression, (3) neural network, (4) estimates from the 2013-2019 data using neural network. The number of all EMS calls was also determined using the same method to obtain the ratio of all EMS calls.
RESULTS: During 2013-2022, 70,262 fall-related calls were made for those aged ≥ 65 years. The rate was higher indoors among females and outdoor among males in most age groups and generally increased with age. After adjusting for age, the rate increased by year. Future estimates of the number of fall calls are approximately double the number in 2022 in 2040 and three times in 2060, with falls accounting for approximately 11% and 13% of all EMS calls in 2040 and 2060, respectively.
CONCLUSIONS: The number of fall-related EMS calls among older people is expected to increase in the future, and the percentage of EMS calls will also increase; therefore, countermeasures are urgently needed.