Japan\'s unique demographic trajectory, marked by population decline and aging, coupled with continued urbanization, presents distinct challenges for aligning built environment capacity with resource efficiency. This study aims to investigate the historical evolution and project future scenarios of building material stock (MS) and their spatial distribution across Japan\'s three major metropolitan areas. Through a comprehensive material flow and stock analysis, the historical accumulation of building materials from 2009 to 2020 was quantified, revealing a dominance of concrete and an increasing overall stock. The contributions of various driving factors to changes in construction areas were explored, identifying population dynamics as the predominant influence. Leveraging shared socioeconomic pathway scenarios (SSPs), this research forecasted building floor area and MS until 2050 under five distinct SSPs. The results indicated an overall reduction across all scenarios, yet with a continued concentration in high-density urban cores. The substantial gap between the highest and lowest projected MS scenarios highlighted opportunities for material conservation and emission reductions through sustainable practices. Sustainable urban development in densely populated regions necessitates a balance between infrastructure provision and environmental conservation, while in sparsely populated areas, the focus shifts to the efficient management and utilization of vacant properties and materials to cope with the impacts of significant population declines. By offering insights into the building floor area and MS implications of Japan\'s demographic changes, this study underscores the necessity of sustainable urban planning and resource management strategies to navigate the challenges posed by demographic shifts, ultimately contributing to sustainable development and environmental conservation goals.

Simulating and predicting Arctic sea ice accurately remains an academic focus due to the complex and unclear mechanisms of Arctic sea ice variability and model biases. Meanwhile, the relevant forecasting and monitoring authorities are searching for models to meet practical needs. Given the previous ideal performance of cGENIE model in other fields and notable features, we evaluated the model\'s skill in simulating Arctic sea ice using multiple methods and it demonstrates great potential and combined advantages. On this basis, we examined the direct drivers of sea-ice variability and predicted the future spatio-temporal changes of Arctic sea ice using the model under different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios. Further studies also found that Arctic sea ice concentration shows large regional differences under RCP 8.5, while the magnitude of the reduction in Arctic sea ice thickness is generally greater compared to concentration, showing a more uniform consistency of change.

Temperature extremes exert a significant influence on terrestrial ecosystems, but the precise levels at which these extremes trigger adverse shifts in vegetation productivity have remained elusive. In this study, we have derived two critical thresholds, using standard deviations (SDs) of growing-season temperature and satellite-based vegetation productivity as key indicators. Our findings reveal that, on average, vegetation productivity experiences rapid suppression when confronted with temperature anomalies exceeding 1.45 SD above the mean temperature during 2001-2018. Furthermore, at temperatures exceeding 2.98 SD above the mean, we observe the maximum level of suppression, particularly in response to the most extreme high-temperature events. When Earth System Models are driven by a future medium emission scenario, they project that mean temperatures will routinely surpass both of these critical thresholds by approximately the years 2050 and 2070, respectively. However, it is important to note that the timing of these threshold crossings exhibits spatial variation and will appear much earlier in tropical regions. Our finding highlights that restricting global warming to just 1.5°C can increase safe areas for vegetation growth by 13% compared to allowing warming to reach 2°C above preindustrial levels. This mitigation strategy helps avoid exposure to detrimental extreme temperatures that breach these thresholds. Our study underscores the pivotal role of climate mitigation policies in fostering the sustainable development of terrestrial ecosystems in a warming world.

BACKGROUND: Falls among older individuals contribute significantly to the rise in ambulance transport use. To recognize the importance of future countermeasures, we estimated the projected number and percentage of fall-related emergency medical service (EMS) calls.
METHODS: We examined the sex, age group, and location of falls among patients aged ≥ 65 years who contacted emergency services in Sapporo City from 2013 to 2021. Annual fall-related calls per population subgroup were calculated, and trends were analyzed. Four models were used to estimate the future number of fall-related calls from the 2025-2060 projected population: (1) based on the 2022 data, estimates from the 2013-2022 data using (2) Poisson progression, (3) neural network, (4) estimates from the 2013-2019 data using neural network. The number of all EMS calls was also determined using the same method to obtain the ratio of all EMS calls.
RESULTS: During 2013-2022, 70,262 fall-related calls were made for those aged ≥ 65 years. The rate was higher indoors among females and outdoor among males in most age groups and generally increased with age. After adjusting for age, the rate increased by year. Future estimates of the number of fall calls are approximately double the number in 2022 in 2040 and three times in 2060, with falls accounting for approximately 11% and 13% of all EMS calls in 2040 and 2060, respectively.
CONCLUSIONS: The number of fall-related EMS calls among older people is expected to increase in the future, and the percentage of EMS calls will also increase; therefore, countermeasures are urgently needed.

Domestication is an ongoing well-described process. However, while many have studied the changes domestication causes in plant genetics, few have explored its impact on the portion of the geographic landscape in which the plants exist. Therefore, the goal of this study was to understand how the process of domestication changed the geographic space suitable for chile pepper (Capsicum annuum) in its center of origin (domestication). C. annuum is a major crop species globally whose center of domestication, Mexico, has been well-studied. It provides a unique opportunity to explore the degree to which ranges of different domestication classes diverged and how these ranges might be altered by climate change. To this end, we created ecological niche models for four domestication classes (wild, semiwild, landrace, modern cultivar) based on present climate and future climate scenarios for 2050, 2070, and 2090. Considering present environment, we found substantial overlap in the geographic niches of all the domestication classes. Yet, environmental and geographic aspects of the current ranges did vary among classes. Wild and commercial varieties could grow in desert conditions, while landraces could not. With projections into the future, habitat was lost asymmetrically, with wild, semiwild, and landraces at greater risk of territorial declines than modern cultivars. Further, we identified areas where future suitability overlap between landraces and wilds is expected to be lost. While range expansion is widely associated with domestication, we found little support of a constant niche expansion (either in environmental or geographical space) throughout the domestication gradient in chile peppers in Mexico. Instead, particular domestication transitions resulted in loss, followed by capturing or recapturing environmental or geographic space. The differences in environmental characterization among domestication gradient classes and their future potential range shifts increase the need for conservation efforts to preserve landraces and semiwild genotypes.

The Qilian Mountains are a climate-sensitive area in northwest China, and extreme precipitation events have an important impact on its ecological environment. Therefore, considering the global warming scenario, it is highly important to project the extreme precipitation indices over the Qilian Mountains in the future. This study is based on three CMIP6 models (CESM2, EC-Earth3, and KACE-1-0-G). A bias correction algorithm (QDM) was used to correct the precipitation outputs of the models. The eight extreme precipitation indices over the Qilian Mountains during the historical period and in the future were calculated using meteorological software (ClimPACT2), and the performance of the CMIP6 models to simulate the extreme precipitation indices of the Qilian Mountains in the historical period was evaluated. Results revealed that: (1) The corrected CMIP6 models could simulate the changes in extreme precipitation indices over the Qilian Mountains in the historical period relatively well, and the corrected CESM2 displayed better simulation as compared to the other two CMIP6 models. The CMIP6 models performed well while simulating R10mm (CC is higher than 0.71) and PRCPTOT (CC is higher than 0.84). (2) The changes in the eight extreme precipitation indices were greater with the enhancement of the SSP scenario. The growth rate of precipitation in the Qilian Mountains during the 21st century under SSP585 is significantly higher than the other two SSP scenarios. The increment of precipitation in the Qilian Mountains mainly comes from the increase in heavy precipitation. (3) The Qilian Mountains will become wetter in the 21st century, especially in the central and eastern regions. The largest increase in precipitation intensity will be observed in the western Qilian Mountains. Additionally, total precipitation will also increase in the middle and end of the 21st century under SSP585. Furthermore, the precipitation increment of the Qilian Mountains will increase with the altitude in the middle and end of the 21st century. This study aims to provide a reference for the changes in extreme precipitation events, glacier mass balance, and water resources in the Qilian Mountains during the 21st century.

Soil is an important component connecting atmosphere and vegetation, and is an important \'regulator\' of slope hydrological process. Global warming accelerates the global water cycle, and Soil Moisture Content (SMC) will change, but this change is not yet clear. Here, we study the global trend of SMC at different depths over the past 70 years and the next 70 years, based on the GLDAS-NOAH025 dataset and precipitation and temperature data from 15 CMIP6 models. We found that compared with the long-term average of 70 years, the global 0-200 cm SMC is decreasing at a rate of 1.284 kg/m2 per year from 2000 to 2020, and the area showing a significant decreasing trend accounts for 31.67 % of the global. Over the past decade, 0-200 cm SMC reduction rate (2.251 kg/m2) doubled. Global warming and precipitation reduction are the main reasons for the attenuation of SMC at different depths in the global from 2000 to 2020. Under the SSP126, SSP245, SSP370 and SSP585 scenarios, the global 0-200 cm SMC will continue to decay in the future, and the area showing a significant reduction trend accounts for 22.73-49.71 % of the global, but the stratified soil and regional differences are obvious. The attenuation of SMC will further aggravate the global water cycle and enhance the variability of extreme meteorological disasters. We will face more severe soil drought problems.

Anticipated nostalgia is the foreseeing of looking back on life events and expecting to feel nostalgic about it in the future. I review recent findings on the content, affective profile, and psychological benefits of anticipated nostalgia. I also review neurological and cognitive evidence that may explain the mechanism underlying anticipated nostalgia. Finally, I discuss anticipated nostalgia in an applied setting, consumer behavior.

Previous studies have documented the associations between short-term diurnal temperature range (DTR) exposure and cardiovascular disease (CVD) via time-series analyses. However, the long-term impacts of DTR through a population-based prospective cohort have not been elucidated thoroughly. This study aimed to quantify the longitudinal association of DTR exposure with all-cause mortality and CVD in a nationwide prospective cohort and, by extension, project future DTR changes across China under climate change. We included 22,702 adults (median age 56.1 years, 53.7% women) free of CVD at baseline from a nationwide cross-sectional study in China during 2012-2015, and examined three health outcomes during a follow-up survey in 2018-2019. We estimated the chronic DTR exposure as baseline annual mean daily maximum minus minimum temperature. The Cox proportional hazards regression was adopted to assess the multivariable-adjusted hazard ratio and its corresponding 95% confidence interval (95% CI). We employed 31 downscaled global climate models under two shared socioeconomic pathways for future projection. During the median follow-up period of ~5 years, 1096 subjects died due to all causes while 993 and 597 individuals developed fatal or nonfatal CVD and fatal or nonfatal stroke, respectively. The cumulative incidence rates of all-cause mortality, CVD, and stroke were 10.49, 9.45, and 5.64 per 1000 person-years, respectively. In the fully adjusted models, the risks for all-cause mortality, CVD, and stroke would increase by 13% (95% CI: 8-18%), 12% (95% CI: 7-18%), and 9% (95% CI: 2-16%) per 1 °C increment in DTR, respectively. Moreover, linear positive associations for the concentration-response curves between DTR and mortality and CVD were observed. We also found significantly greater DTR-related mortality risks among rural residents than their urban counterparts. The DTR changes featured a dipole pattern across China under a warming climate. The southern (northern) China would experience increased (decreased) DTR exposure by the end of 21st century. The present study indicates that chronic DTR exposure can exert long-term impacts on mortality and CVD risks, which may inform future public health policies on DTR-related susceptible population and regions.

Ozone in the troposphere is harmful to human health and ecosystems. It has become the most severe air pollutant in China. Here, based on global atmospheric chemistry model simulations during 1981-2019 and nation-wide surface observations, the impacts of interannual variations in Asian summer monsoon (ASM), including East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) and South Asian summer monsoon (SASM), on surface O3 concentrations during June-July-August (JJA) in China are investigated. EASM intensity has a significant positive correlation with the surface O3 concentration in south-central China (97.5°-117.5°E, 20°-35°N) with a correlation coefficient of 0.6. Relative to the weak EASM years, O3 concentrations in strong EASM years increased by up to 5 ppb (10 % relative to the average) due to the weakened transboundary transport of O3 resulting from the decrease in prevailing southwesterlies. SASM can be divided into two components. The one near East Asia has a similar relation with O3 in southern China (100°-117.5°E, 22°-32°N) as that of EASM. The other component of SASM is negatively correlated with surface O3 concentration in eastern China (110°-117.5°E, 22°-34°N) and the maximum difference in O3 concentrations exceeded 5 ppb (10 %) between the strong and weak monsoon years, which can be explained by the O3 divergence caused by the anomalous southerlies blowing pollutants away from the northern boundary of eastern China. This study shows that the ASM has an important impact on the O3 concentrations in China, primarily through changing transboundary transport related to the variability of large-scale circulations, which has great implications for air pollution prevention and mitigation in China. Future projections of ASM suggests that the sustainable and medium development scenarios are the perfect pathways that can help to mitigate O3 pollution, while high social vulnerability and radiative forcing scenarios could enhance future O3 pollution in China.