fallacy

谬论
  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    电子健康计划所体现的日益增长和无处不在的数字化趋势导致了数字解决方案在医疗保健领域的广泛采用。这些举措被认为是旨在改善医疗保健服务的强大变革力量,提高患者的治疗效果,提高医疗保健系统的效率。然而,尽管电子健康计划提供了巨大的潜力和可能性,这篇文章强调了批判性地研究它们的影响的重要性,并警告人们不要误解技术本身可以解决复杂的公共卫生问题和医疗保健挑战。它强调需要批判性地考虑社会文化背景,教育和培训,组织和体制方面,监管框架,用户参与和实施电子健康计划时的其他重要因素。忽视这些关键因素可能会使电子健康计划变得低效甚至适得其反。鉴于此,这篇文章指出了可能阻碍电子健康计划成功的失败和谬误,并强调了它们往往达不到不断上升和不合理期望的领域。为了应对这些挑战,文章建议采用更现实和基于证据的方法来规划和实施电子健康计划。它要求一致的研究议程,电子健康计划中适当的评估方法和战略方向。通过采用这种方法,eHealth倡议可以有助于实现社会目标,实现全球范围内医疗保健系统的关键卫生优先事项和发展要务。
    The growing and ubiquitous digitalization trends embodied in eHealth initiatives have led to the widespread adoption of digital solutions in the healthcare sector. These initiatives have been heralded as a potent transformative force aiming to improve healthcare delivery, enhance patient outcomes and increase the efficiency of healthcare systems. However, despite the significant potential and possibilities offered by eHealth initiatives, the article highlights the importance of critically examining their implications and cautions against the misconception that technology alone can solve complex public health concerns and healthcare challenges. It emphasizes the need to critically consider the sociocultural context, education and training, organizational and institutional aspects, regulatory frameworks, user involvement and other important factors when implementing eHealth initiatives. Disregarding these crucial elements can render eHealth initiatives inefficient or even counterproductive. In view of that, the article identifies failures and fallacies that can hinder the success of eHealth initiatives and highlights areas where they often fall short of meeting rising and unjustified expectations. To address these challenges, the article recommends a more realistic and evidence-based approach to planning and implementing eHealth initiatives. It calls for consistent research agendas, appropriate evaluation methodologies and strategic orientations within eHealth initiatives. By adopting this approach, eHealth initiatives can contribute to the achievement of societal goals and the realization of the key health priorities and development imperatives of healthcare systems on a global scale.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    谬论的这种出现条件是指论点薄弱的现象,或在论证中移动,当他们真的不行的时候,他们似乎没事。并非所有理论家都同意外观条件应该是谬误概念的一部分,但本文探讨了包含它的一些后果。特别是,犯谬论之间的区别,导致谬误和观察谬误被识别。本文的其余部分将用于讨论错误地感知弱论证的可能原因。其中包括争论引起的误解,视角导致误解,话语环境引起误解,感知者引起误解。讨论的目的是足够笼统,以便可以容纳不同的论证模型和标准,从而为谬论提供场所。
    This appearance condition of fallacies refers to the phenomenon of weak arguments, or moves in argumentation, appearing to be okay when really they aren\'t. Not all theorists agree that the appearance condition should be part of the conception of fallacies but this essay explores some of the consequences of including it. In particular, the differences between committing a fallacy, causing a fallacy and observing a fallacy are identified. The remainder of the paper is given over to discussing possible causes of mistakenly perceiving weak argumentation moves as okay. Among these are argument caused misperception, perspective caused misperception, discursive environment caused misperception and perceiver caused misperception. The discussion aims to be sufficiently general so that it can accommodate different models and standards of argumentation that make a place for fallacies.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    睡眠障碍按照传统分类法进行分类。这种常规方法允许对许多患者进行适当的管理。治疗失败,然而,可能是由于症状的非特异性,症状和病理生理内异型之间的巧合关联,以及影响睡眠的不同病理机制的共同发生。复杂表型通常对标准治疗干预反应不佳。在这些情况下,临床检查应旨在确定在靶向治疗下可能改善的可治疗特征.睡眠医学面临的挑战是进一步开发这种由系统医学原理驱动的创新方法。
    Sleep disorders are categorized in line with traditional taxonomy. This conventional approach allows adequate management of many patients. Failure of treatment, however, may be due to nonspecificity of symptoms, coincidental association between symptoms and pathophysiological endotype, as well as co-occurrence of different pathologic mechanisms affecting sleep. Complex phenotypes often do not respond well to standard therapeutic interventions. In these cases, the clinical workup should aim at identifying treatable traits that will likely improve under targeted therapy. The challenge for sleep medicine is to further develop this innovative approach that is driven by the principles of systems medicine.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    暂无摘要。
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    Probability judgment is a vital part of many aspects of everyday life. In the present paper, we present a new theory of the way in which individuals produce probability estimates for joint events: conjunctive and disjunctive. We propose that a majority of individuals produce conjunctive (disjunctive) estimates by making a quasi-random adjustment, positive or negative, from the less (more) likely component probability with the other component playing no obvious role. In two studies, we produce evidence supporting propositions that follow from our theory. First, the component probabilities do appear to play the distinct roles we propose in determining the joint event probabilities. Second, contrary to probability theory and other accounts of probability judgment, we show that the conjunctive-less likely probability difference is unrelated to the more likely disjunctive probability difference (in normative theory these quantities are identical). In conclusion, while violating the norms of probability judgment, we argue that estimates produced in the manner we propose will be close enough to the normative values especially given the changing nature of the external environment and the incomplete nature of available information.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    关于膳食糖对健康的推定影响的争议,盐,脂肪,胆固醇不是由有效证据的科学推断的合法差异驱动的,而是由数十年来严重缺陷和明显误导的流行病学研究驱动的关于饮食与疾病关系的虚构论述。在过去的60年里,流行病学家发表了数万份报告,声称尽管流行病学方法并不衡量膳食摄入量,但膳食摄入量是导致慢性非传染性疾病的主要因素.代替测量实际的饮食摄入量,流行病学家收集了数百万份未经证实的关于饮食摄入感知的口头和文字报告。鉴于实际的饮食摄入量和报告的摄入感知记忆不在同一本体论类别中,流行病学家犯下了“错位的具体性”的逻辑谬误。“当轶事(自我报告)数据被不允许地转换时(即,伪量化)通过从有效性和全面性可疑的数据库中分配“参考”值,将营养和热量消耗的代理估计。当使用伪量化的轶事数据进行饮食与疾病关系的统计分析时,这些错误进一步加剧。这些致命的测量,分析,当流行病学家未能引用数十年的研究证明他们创建的代理估计通常在生理上令人难以置信时(即,毫无意义),并且与参与者的实际营养素或热量消耗没有可验证的定量关系。在这种批判性分析中,我们提供了大量证据来支持我们的论点,即当前关于饮食与疾病关系的争议和公众困惑是由成千上万的严重缺陷引起的,明显误导,和伪科学流行病学报告。我们通过承认对其基于记忆的方法的经验和理论反驳来挑战营养领域,以重新获得失去的可信度,并确保使用严格(客观)的科学方法来研究饮食在慢性病中的作用。
    Controversies regarding the putative health effects of dietary sugar, salt, fat, and cholesterol are not driven by legitimate differences in scientific inference from valid evidence, but by a fictional discourse on diet-disease relations driven by decades of deeply flawed and demonstrably misleading epidemiologic research. Over the past 60 years, epidemiologists published tens of thousands of reports asserting that dietary intake was a major contributing factor to chronic non-communicable diseases despite the fact that epidemiologic methods do not measure dietary intake. In lieu of measuring actual dietary intake, epidemiologists collected millions of unverified verbal and textual reports of memories of perceptions of dietary intake. Given that actual dietary intake and reported memories of perceptions of intake are not in the same ontological category, epidemiologists committed the logical fallacy of \"Misplaced Concreteness.\" This error was exacerbated when the anecdotal (self-reported) data were impermissibly transformed (i.e., pseudo-quantified) into proxy-estimates of nutrient and caloric consumption via the assignment of \"reference\" values from databases of questionable validity and comprehensiveness. These errors were further compounded when statistical analyses of diet-disease relations were performed using the pseudo-quantified anecdotal data. These fatal measurement, analytic, and inferential flaws were obscured when epidemiologists failed to cite decades of research demonstrating that the proxy-estimates they created were often physiologically implausible (i.e., meaningless) and had no verifiable quantitative relation to the actual nutrient or caloric consumption of participants. In this critical analysis, we present substantial evidence to support our contention that current controversies and public confusion regarding diet-disease relations were generated by tens of thousands of deeply flawed, demonstrably misleading, and pseudoscientific epidemiologic reports. We challenge the field of nutrition to regain lost credibility by acknowledging the empirical and theoretical refutations of their memory-based methods and ensure that rigorous (objective) scientific methods are used to study the role of diet in chronic disease.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    BACKGROUND: The ethical discussion about abortion has been polarized in Finland and the Republic of Ireland, two European countries with very different abortion legislation (liberal vs. highly restrictive). The aim of the present study was to analyze experiential thinking patterns and argumentative strategies in political and layperson debates regarding induced abortion.
    METHODS: The content of Finnish and Irish texts (n = 493), consisting of transcripts of parliamentary debates and online texts, such as blogs, was analyzed systematically. The texts were investigated for the aspects of experiential thinking, for selected argumentative moves and for any differences in the prevalence of these features between countries or between political vs. layperson debates.
    RESULTS: The Finnish and Irish discussions about induced abortion relied heavily on experiential thinking patterns and emotionally laden arguments instead of objective research data. This was evident in the very high prevalence of testimonials, narratives, loaded language and appeals to emotion in both political and layperson debates regardless of the country or the debater\'s position on abortion issue. Research data that did not support the position of the debater were relatively often omitted by confirmation bias. The Irish debaters appealed to popularity more often than the Finnish ones, while magical/religious thinking was mainly observed in the Finnish layperson discussion. The national history and the prevailing cultural and religious atmosphere of the two countries could explain these differences.
    CONCLUSIONS: The abortion debate mostly reinforces the opinions of one\'s peer group rather than convinces the opposite party to change their position. The stalemate and continuation of the same arguments being repeated could be associated with experiential thinking and emotional argumentative strategies in both political and layperson debates.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    Computational biomechanics models constructed using nominal or average input parameters are often assumed to produce average results that are representative of a target population of interest. To investigate this assumption a stochastic Monte Carlo analysis of two common biomechanical models was conducted. Consistent discrepancies were found between the behavior of average models and the average behavior of the population from which the average models׳ input parameters were derived. More interestingly, broadly distributed sets of non-average input parameters were found to produce average or near average model behaviors. In other words, average models did not produce average results, and models that did produce average results possessed non-average input parameters. These findings have implications on the prevalent practice of employing average input parameters in computational models. To facilitate further discussion on the topic, the authors have termed this phenomenon the \"Generic Modeling Fallacy\". The mathematical explanation of the Generic Modeling Fallacy is presented and suggestions for avoiding it are provided. Analytical and empirical examples of the Generic Modeling Fallacy are also given.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    OBJECTIVE: Previous discussions of the hot hand belief, wherein athletes believe that they have a greater chance of scoring after 2 or 3 hits (successes) compared with 2 or 3 misses, have focused on whether this is the case within game statistics. Researchers have argued that the perception of the hot hand in random sequences is a bias of the cognitive system. Yet most have failed to explore the impact of framing on the stability of the belief and the behavior based on it.
    METHODS: The authors conducted 2 studies that manipulated the frame of a judgment task. In Study 1, framing was manipulated via instructions in a playmaker allocation paradigm in volleyball. In Study 2, the frame was manipulated by presenting videos for allocation decisions from either the actor or observer perspective.
    RESULTS: Both manipulations changed the hot hand belief and sequential choices. We found in both studies that the belief in continuation of positive or negative streaks is nonlinear and allocations to the same player after 3 successive hits are reduced.
    CONCLUSIONS: The authors argue that neither the hot hand belief nor hot hand behavior is stable, but rather, both are sensitive to decision frames. The results can inform coaches on the importance of how to provide information to athletes.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    There has been a paradigm shift in the psychology of deductive reasoning. Many researchers no longer think it is appropriate to ask people to assume premises and decide what necessarily follows, with the results evaluated by binary extensional logic. Most every day and scientific inference is made from more or less confidently held beliefs and not assumptions, and the relevant normative standard is Bayesian probability theory. We argue that the study of \"uncertain deduction\" should directly ask people to assign probabilities to both premises and conclusions, and report an experiment using this method. We assess this reasoning by two Bayesian metrics: probabilistic validity and coherence according to probability theory. On both measures, participants perform above chance in conditional reasoning, but they do much better when statements are grouped as inferences, rather than evaluated in separate tasks.
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