estimation

估计
  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    使用传统记录技术测量奶牛甲烷(CH4)排放是复杂且昂贵的。预测模型,根据代理信息估算CH4排放量,提供一个可访问的替代方案。这篇综述涵盖了预测奶牛CH4排放量所采用的不同建模方法,并强调了它们各自的优势和局限性。遵循系统评价和荟萃分析的首选报告项目(PRISMA);Scopus,EBSCO,WebofScience,PubMed和PubAg分别被查询标题包含与“牛,“统计分析或机器学习的暴露”,“和“甲烷排放”的结果。搜索于2022年12月执行,没有设置发布日期范围。符合条件的论文是通过统计或机器学习方法研究奶牛中CH4排放预测的论文,并以英文提供。最初的搜索返回了299篇论文,其中55、有资格参加讨论。来自55篇论文的数据是通过探索的CH4排放预测方法合成的,包括机械建模,实证建模,机器学习(ML)发现机械模型非常准确,然而他们需要难以获得输入数据,which,如果不精确,会产生误导性的结果。相比之下,经验模型仍然更通用,然而,当应用于其原始发育范围之外时,却遭受了巨大的痛苦。对商业奶牛场CH4排放量的预测可以利用任何方法,然而,他们使用的特征必须在商业农场环境中是可获得的。牛奶脂肪酸(MFA)似乎是研究中最受欢迎的商业可获得性状,然而,基于MFA的模型产生了矛盾的结果,应在实现可靠的准确性之前进行合并。ML模型通过各种先进算法为预测奶牛CH4排放提供了一种新颖的方法,并且可以通过混合或堆叠技术促进异构数据类型的组合。除此之外,它们还提供了通过插补策略提高数据集复杂性的能力。这些机会使机器学习模型能够解决传统预测方法面临的局限性,以及加强对商业农场的预测。
    Measuring dairy cattle methane (CH4) emissions using traditional recording technologies is complicated and expensive. Prediction models, which estimate CH4 emissions based on proxy information, provide an accessible alternative. This review covers the different modelling approaches taken in the prediction of dairy cattle CH4 emissions and highlights their individual strengths and limitations. Following the guidelines set out by the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Review and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA); Scopus, EBSCO, Web of Science, PubMed and PubAg were each queried for papers with titles that contained search terms related to a population of \"Bovine,\" exposure of \"Statistical Analysis or Machine Learning,\" and outcome of \"Methane Emissions\". The search was executed in December 2022 with no publication date range set. Eligible papers were those which investigated the prediction of CH4 emissions in dairy cattle via statistical or machine learning methods and were available in English. 299 papers were returned from the initial search, 55 of which, were eligible for inclusion in the discussion. Data from the 55 papers was synthesised by the CH4 emission prediction approach explored, including mechanistic modelling, empirical modelling, and machine learning (ML). Mechanistic models were found to be highly accurate, yet they require difficult to obtain input data, which, if imprecise, can produce misleading results. Empirical models remain more versatile by comparison, yet suffer greatly when applied outside of their original developmental range. The prediction of CH4 emissions on commercial dairy farms can utilise any approach, however the traits they use must be procurable in a commercial farm setting. Milk fatty acids (MFA) appear to be the most popular commercially accessible trait under investigation, however, MFA-based models have produced ambivalent results and should be consolidated before robust accuracies can be achieved. ML models provide a novel methodology for the prediction of dairy cattle CH4 emissions through a diverse range of advanced algorithms, and can facilitate the combination of heterogenous data types via hybridisation or stacking techniques. In addition to this, they also offer the ability to improve dataset complexity through imputation strategies. These opportunities allow ML models to address the limitations faced by traditional prediction approaches, as well as enhance prediction on commercial farms.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    已知身高是由复杂的多基因因素控制的经典遗传性状。到目前为止,已经在整个基因组中发现了许多与身高相关的遗传变异。它也是用于预测法医学外观的外部可见特征(EVC)的代表。当犯罪现场的生物证据不足以识别个人时,可以考虑使用某些遗传变异对法医DNA表型进行检查.在这项研究中,我们的目标是预测\'高度\',代表性的法医表型,当短串联重复序列(STR)分析在生物样品不足的情况下很困难时,使用少量的遗传变异。我们的结果不仅复制了以前的遗传信号,而且还表明,随着两种性别的验证和复制阶段的高度增加,多基因评分(PGS)呈上升趋势。这些结果表明,本研究中建立的SNP集可用于韩国人群的身高估计。具体来说,由于本研究中构建的PGS模型仅针对少量SNP,即使在犯罪现场,它也有助于以最少的生物学证据进行法医DNA表型鉴定。据我们所知,这是第一项利用GWAS信号评估韩国人群身高估测PGS模型的研究.我们的研究提供了对东亚人身高的多基因效应的见解,纳入非亚洲人群的遗传变异。
    Height is known to be a classically heritable trait controlled by complex polygenic factors. Numerous height-associated genetic variants across the genome have been identified so far. It is also a representative of externally visible characteristics (EVC) for predicting appearance in forensic science. When biological evidence at a crime scene is deficient in identifying an individual, the examination of forensic DNA phenotyping using some genetic variants could be considered. In this study, we aimed to predict \'height\', a representative forensic phenotype, by using a small number of genetic variants when short tandem repeat (STR) analysis is hard with insufficient biological samples. Our results not only replicated previous genetic signals but also indicated an upward trend in polygenic score (PGS) with increasing height in the validation and replication stages for both genders. These results demonstrate that the established SNP sets in this study could be used for height estimation in the Korean population. Specifically, since the PGS model constructed in this study targets only a small number of SNPs, it contributes to enabling forensic DNA phenotyping even at crime scenes with a minimal amount of biological evidence. To the best of our knowledge, this was the first study to evaluate a PGS model for height estimation in the Korean population using GWAS signals. Our study offers insight into the polygenic effect of height in East Asians, incorporating genetic variants from non-Asian populations.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    ICHE9(R1)中概述的评估框架描述了在临床试验中精确定义要估计的效果所需的组件。其中包括如何处理基线后“间流”事件(IE)。在后期临床试验中,通常使用治疗政策策略处理“治疗中止”等IE,并将治疗效果作为结局的目标,无论治疗中止与否.对于连续重复的措施,这种类型的影响通常使用停药前后的所有观察到的数据进行估计,使用重复测量混合模型(MMRM)或多重归因(MI)处理任何缺失数据.在基本形式上,这两种估计方法在分析中都忽略了治疗中止,因此,如果治疗中止后的患者与仍被分配治疗的患者相比存在差异,则可能存在偏见。和丢失的数据更常见的患者谁已经停止治疗。因此,我们提出并评估了一组MI模型,可以适应治疗中止前后结果之间的差异。这些模型是在规划呼吸道疾病的3期试验的背景下进行评估的。我们表明,忽略治疗中止的分析可能会引入实质性偏差,有时可能会低估变异性。我们还表明,提出的一些MI模型可以成功地纠正偏差,但不可避免地导致方差的增加。我们得出的结论是,一些提出的MI模型比忽略治疗中断的传统分析更可取,但是MI模型的精确选择可能取决于试验设计,治疗中止后的关注疾病以及观察到的和缺失的数据量。
    The estimands framework outlined in ICH E9 (R1) describes the components needed to precisely define the effects to be estimated in clinical trials, which includes how post-baseline \'intercurrent\' events (IEs) are to be handled. In late-stage clinical trials, it is common to handle IEs like \'treatment discontinuation\' using the treatment policy strategy and target the treatment effect on outcomes regardless of treatment discontinuation. For continuous repeated measures, this type of effect is often estimated using all observed data before and after discontinuation using either a mixed model for repeated measures (MMRM) or multiple imputation (MI) to handle any missing data. In basic form, both these estimation methods ignore treatment discontinuation in the analysis and therefore may be biased if there are differences in patient outcomes after treatment discontinuation compared with patients still assigned to treatment, and missing data being more common for patients who have discontinued treatment. We therefore propose and evaluate a set of MI models that can accommodate differences between outcomes before and after treatment discontinuation. The models are evaluated in the context of planning a Phase 3 trial for a respiratory disease. We show that analyses ignoring treatment discontinuation can introduce substantial bias and can sometimes underestimate variability. We also show that some of the MI models proposed can successfully correct the bias, but inevitably lead to increases in variance. We conclude that some of the proposed MI models are preferable to the traditional analysis ignoring treatment discontinuation, but the precise choice of MI model will likely depend on the trial design, disease of interest and amount of observed and missing data following treatment discontinuation.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    现代科学依赖于纳米尺度的成像,通常通过检测由高度聚焦的入射带电粒子束产生的二次电子的过程来实现。多种类型的测量噪声限制了图像质量和入射粒子剂量之间的最终权衡。这可能会妨碍剂量敏感样品的有用成像。现有的改善图像质量的方法不能从根本上减轻噪声源。此外,分配物理上有意义的尺度的障碍使图像定性。这里,我们介绍了离子计数辅助显微镜(ICAM),这是一种定量成像技术,使用统计原理估计的二次电子产量。随着数据收集的容易实现的变化,ICAM大大降低了源散粒噪声。在氦离子显微镜中,我们证明了3[公式:参见文本]剂量减少以及这些经验结果与理论性能预测之间的良好匹配。ICAM促进易碎样品的成像,并且可以使具有较重颗粒的成像更具吸引力。
    Modern science is dependent on imaging on the nanoscale, often achieved through processes that detect secondary electrons created by a highly focused incident charged particle beam. Multiple types of measurement noise limit the ultimate trade-off between the image quality and the incident particle dose, which can preclude useful imaging of dose-sensitive samples. Existing methods to improve image quality do not fundamentally mitigate the noise sources. Furthermore, barriers to assigning a physically meaningful scale make the images qualitative. Here, we introduce ion count-aided microscopy (ICAM), which is a quantitative imaging technique that uses statistically principled estimation of the secondary electron yield. With a readily implemented change in data collection, ICAM substantially reduces source shot noise. In helium ion microscopy, we demonstrate 3[Formula: see text] dose reduction and a good match between these empirical results and theoretical performance predictions. ICAM facilitates imaging of fragile samples and may make imaging with heavier particles more attractive.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    从表面肌电图(sEMG)信号准确估计行走期间的膝关节角度可以实现对可穿戴机器人如外骨骼的更自然的控制。然而,由于个人和会议之间的可变性,存在挑战。这项研究评估了基于注意力的深度递归神经网络,该神经网络结合了门控递归单元(GRU)和注意力机制(AM),用于膝盖角度估计。进行了三个实验。首先,GRU-AM模型在四个健康青少年身上进行了测试,与单独的GRU相比,显示出改进的估计。敏感性分析显示,关键的贡献肌肉是膝关节屈肌和伸肌,强调AM专注于最重要输入的能力。第二,迁移学习是通过在对四个青少年进行额外训练和测试之前,在开源数据集上对模型进行预训练来显示的。第三,该模型在三个疗程中逐步适用于一名脑瘫(CP)儿童。GRU-AM模型显示了健康参与者(平均RMSE7度)和CP参与者(RMSE37度)的可靠膝关节角度估计。Further,在患有CP的儿童连续行走的过程中,估计准确性平均提高了14度。这些结果证明了在青少年和临床人群中使用基于注意力的深度网络进行关节角度估计的可行性,并支持其在可穿戴机器人技术中的进一步发展。
    Accurately estimating knee joint angle during walking from surface electromyography (sEMG) signals can enable more natural control of wearable robotics like exoskeletons. However, challenges exist due to variability across individuals and sessions. This study evaluates an attention-based deep recurrent neural network combining gated recurrent units (GRUs) and an attention mechanism (AM) for knee angle estimation. Three experiments were conducted. First, the GRU-AM model was tested on four healthy adolescents, demonstrating improved estimation compared to GRU alone. A sensitivity analysis revealed that the key contributing muscles were the knee flexor and extensors, highlighting the ability of the AM to focus on the most salient inputs. Second, transfer learning was shown by pretraining the model on an open source dataset before additional training and testing on the four adolescents. Third, the model was progressively adapted over three sessions for one child with cerebral palsy (CP). The GRU-AM model demonstrated robust knee angle estimation across participants with healthy participants (mean RMSE 7 degrees) and participants with CP (RMSE 37 degrees). Further, estimation accuracy improved by 14 degrees on average across successive sessions of walking in the child with CP. These results demonstrate the feasibility of using attention-based deep networks for joint angle estimation in adolescents and clinical populations and support their further development for deployment in wearable robotics.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    了解麻醉提供者的性别对患者结局的影响需要仔细的统计分析和许多假设的有效性。英国麻醉杂志最近的一项研究调查了麻醉提供者性别对患者预后的影响,使用来自美国两个学术医疗保健网络的数据。作者表明,女性提供者的性别与术中并发症的风险较低有关。他们还表明,男性和女性提供者在术后结果方面没有有意义的差异。最近有几项研究考虑了医疗保健提供者性别对结果的影响。我们将讨论这些结果的解释以及基本假设的有效性。
    Unravelling the impact of the sex of the anaesthesia provider on the outcomes of patients requires careful statistical analysis and the validity of many assumptions. A recent study in the British Journal of Anaesthesia investigates the effect of anaesthesia provider sex on patient outcomes, using data from two academic healthcare networks in the USA. The authors show that female provider sex was associated with a lower risk of intraoperative complications. They also show that there was no meaningful difference between male and female providers with respect to postoperative outcomes. There have been several recent studies considering the effect of healthcare provider sex on outcomes. We will discuss the interpretation of these results and the validity of the underlying assumptions.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    大豆是一种重要的粮食作物,油,和饲料。然而,我国大豆自给能力严重不足,年进口量超过80%。RGB相机是估算作物产量的强大工具,机器学习是一种基于各种特征的实用方法,提供改进的产量预测。然而,选择不同的输入参数和模型,特别是最佳特征和模型效果,显著影响大豆产量预测。
    这项研究使用RGB相机在R6阶段(荚灌浆阶段)从侧面和顶部角度捕获了240个大豆品种(由四个省份组成的自然种群中国:四川,云南,重庆,和贵州)。从这些图像中,形态学,颜色,并提取了大豆的质地特征。随后,使用Pearson相关系数阈值≥0.5对图像参数进行特征选择.五种机器学习方法即,CatBoost,LightGBM,射频,GBDT,MLP,从RGB图像提取的两个角度,基于单个和组合图像参数建立大豆产量估算模型。
    (1)GBDT是预测大豆产量的最佳模型,测试集R2值为0.82,RMSE为1.99g/植物,MAE为3.12%。(2)多角度、多类型指标的融合有利于提高大豆产量预测精度。
    因此,这种通过机器学习从RGB图像中提取的参数组合具有估计大豆产量的巨大潜力,为加快大豆育种进程提供理论依据和技术支持。
    UNASSIGNED: Soybeans are an important crop used for food, oil, and feed. However, China\'s soybean self-sufficiency is highly inadequate, with an annual import volume exceeding 80%. RGB cameras serve as powerful tools for estimating crop yield, and machine learning is a practical method based on various features, providing improved yield predictions. However, selecting different input parameters and models, specifically optimal features and model effects, significantly influences soybean yield prediction.
    UNASSIGNED: This study used an RGB camera to capture soybean canopy images from both the side and top perspectives during the R6 stage (pod filling stage) for 240 soybean varieties (a natural population formed by four provinces in China: Sichuan, Yunnan, Chongqing, and Guizhou). From these images, the morphological, color, and textural features of the soybeans were extracted. Subsequently, feature selection was performed on the image parameters using a Pearson correlation coefficient threshold ≥0.5. Five machine learning methods, namely, CatBoost, LightGBM, RF, GBDT, and MLP, were employed to establish soybean yield estimation models based on the individual and combined image parameters from the two perspectives extracted from RGB images.
    UNASSIGNED: (1) GBDT is the optimal model for predicting soybean yield, with a test set R2 value of 0.82, an RMSE of 1.99 g/plant, and an MAE of 3.12%. (2) The fusion of multiangle and multitype indicators is conducive to improving soybean yield prediction accuracy.
    UNASSIGNED: Therefore, this combination of parameters extracted from RGB images via machine learning has great potential for estimating soybean yield, providing a theoretical basis and technical support for accelerating the soybean breeding process.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    基因组选择的初步发现表明主要性状有了实质性改善,比如性能,甚至成功选择拮抗性状。然而,最近的非官方报告表明,次生性状恶化的频率增加。这种现象可能由于加速的选择过程和资源分配之间的不匹配而出现。由选择索引明确或隐含地说明的特征朝着期望的方向移动,而忽略的性状根据与所选性状的遗传相关性而变化。历史上,商业遗传选择的第一阶段集中在生产性状上。经过长期挑选,生产性状得到改善,而健康特征恶化,尽管这种恶化通过不断改进管理得到了部分补偿。将这些适应度性状添加到育种目标和使用的选择指数中也有助于抵消其下降,同时促进长期收益。随后,观察到的适应度特征的趋势是由于遗传拮抗作用引起的负面反应的组合,纳入选择指数的积极响应,和改善管理的积极作用。在基因组选择下,基因趋势加速,特别是对于记录良好的高遗传力性状,放大适应度性状的负相关反应。然后,观察到的健康特征趋势可能会变得消极,特别是因为在基因组选择下,管理修改不会加速。由于基因组选择的快速周转,可能会发生额外的恶化,由于生产性状的遗传力会下降,生产性状和适应性性状之间的遗传拮抗作用会加剧。如果遗传参数没有更新,选择指数将不准确,而预期的收益就不会发生。虽然对于未记录或稀疏记录的健身特征,恶化会加速,基因组选择可以改善广泛记录的适应度特征。在基因组选择的背景下,寻找相关特征的意外变化并迅速采取措施防止进一步下降是至关重要的,尤其是在次要性状上。可以通过调查遗传参数的时间动态来预测变化,尤其是遗传相关性。然而,需要新的方法来估计最后一代的遗传参数与大量的基因组数据。
    Initial findings on genomic selection (GS) indicated substantial improvement for major traits, such as performance, and even successful selection for antagonistic traits. However, recent unofficial reports indicate an increased frequency of deterioration of secondary traits. This phenomenon may arise due to the mismatch between the accelerated selection process and resource allocation. Traits explicitly or implicitly accounted for by a selection index move toward the desired direction, whereas neglected traits change according to the genetic correlations with selected traits. Historically, the first stage of commercial genetic selection focused on production traits. After long-term selection, production traits improved, whereas fitness traits deteriorated, although this deterioration was partially compensated for by constantly improving management. Adding these fitness traits to the breeding objective and the used selection index also helped offset their decline while promoting long-term gains. Subsequently, the trend in observed fitness traits was a combination of a negative response due to genetic antagonism, positive response from inclusion in the selection index, and a positive effect of improving management. Under GS, the genetic trends accelerate, especially for well-recorded higher heritability traits, magnifying the negatively correlated responses for fitness traits. Then, the observed trend for fitness traits can become negative, especially because management modifications do not accelerate under GS. Additional deterioration can occur due to the rapid turnover of GS, as heritabilities for production traits can decline and the genetic antagonism between production and fitness traits can intensify. If the genetic parameters are not updated, the selection index will be inaccurate, and the intended gains will not occur. While the deterioration can accelerate for unrecorded or sparsely recorded fitness traits, GS can lead to an improvement for widely recorded fitness traits. In the context of GS, it is crucial to look for unexpected changes in relevant traits and take rapid steps to prevent further declines, especially in secondary traits. Changes can be anticipated by investigating the temporal dynamics of genetic parameters, especially genetic correlations. However, new methods are needed to estimate genetic parameters for the last generation with large amounts of genomic data.
    Initial findings on genomic selection indicated substantial improvement for major traits such as growth or milk yield and even successful selection for secondary traits such as fertility or survival. However, recent unofficial reports indicate an increased frequency of problems in several secondary traits. This study looks at potential sources of those problems and mitigation strategies. Under selection initially carried out for production traits, production improved, but fertility (i.e., a secondary trait) declined, with the decline partially compensated for by improving management. Later, also because the observed deteriorations were becoming too strong, these traits became part of the breeding objectives, and used selection indexes were modified to include secondary traits, halting the deterioration. Under genomic selection, genetic gains accelerate, especially for higher heritability production traits, potentially magnifying the negative responses for secondary traits, and management modifications may not be fast enough to alleviate the decline. The responses can especially decline for unrecorded or sparsely recorded fitness traits. While the decline may be slow and hard to see, it may be serious in the long term and hard to reverse. Changes under genomic selection may be monitored by recalculating genetic parameters every generation. Secondary traits that become more antagonistic with production traits will likely deteriorate more and will need special attention.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    本研究旨在通过应用多元技术建立水稻产量预测模型。它利用逐步多元回归,判别函数分析和逻辑回归技术预测哈里亚纳邦特定地区的作物产量。根据作物产量,水稻作物的时间序列数据分为两类和三类。1980-81年至2020-21年水稻产量的年度时间序列数据取自哈里亚纳邦统计文摘的各个问题。该研究还利用了每两周来自CCSHAU农业气象部门的气象数据,印度。为了比较各种预测模型的性能,对均方根误差等度量的评估,预测误差平方和,已经使用了平均绝对偏差和平均绝对百分比误差。研究结果表明,与逻辑回归相比,判别函数分析是最有效的预测水稻产量的方法。重要的是,研究强调,预测水稻产量的最佳时间是作物收割前1个月,为农业规划和决策提供有价值的见解。这种方法展示了天气数据和先进统计技术的融合,展示更精确和知情的农业实践的潜力。
    This study aims to develop predictive models for rice yield by applying multivariate techniques. It utilizes stepwise multiple regression, discriminant function analysis and logistic regression techniques to forecast crop yield in specific districts of Haryana. The time series data on rice crop have been divided into two and three classes based on crop yield. The yearly time series data of rice yield from 1980-81 to 2020-21 have been taken from various issues of Statistical Abstracts of Haryana. The study also utilized fortnightly meteorological data sourced from the Agrometeorology Department of CCS HAU, India. For comparing various predictive models\' performance, evaluation of measures like Root Mean Square Error, Predicted Error Sum of Squares, Mean Absolute Deviation and Mean Absolute Percentage Error have been used. Results of the study indicated that discriminant function analysis emerged as the most effective to predict the rice yield accurately as compared to logistic regression. Importantly, the research highlighted that the optimum time for forecasting the rice yield is 1 month prior to the crops harvesting, offering valuable insight for agricultural planning and decision-making. This approach demonstrates the fusion of weather data and advanced statistical techniques, showcasing the potential for more precise and informed agricultural practices.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    背景:早期的研究已经估计了体重指数(BMI)增加对医疗保健费用的影响。已经使用各种方法来避免潜在的偏差和不一致。这些方法中的每一种都测量不同的局部效应,并且具有不同的优点和缺点。
    方法:在当前的研究中,我们使用文献中的九种常见方法来估计BMI增加对医疗费用的影响:多元回归分析(普通最小二乘法,广义线性模型,和两部分模型),和工具变量模型(使用以前测量的BMI,后代BMI,和三个不同的加权遗传风险评分作为BMI的工具)。我们按性别分层,调查了混淆调整的影响,并对线性和非线性关联进行了建模。
    结果:在每种方法中,男性和女性的BMI增加都有积极的影响。在模型中,BMI升高的成本更高,在更大程度上,解释内生关系。
    结论:该研究提供了确凿的证据,表明BMI与医疗费用之间存在关联。并证明了三角测量的重要性。
    BACKGROUND: Earlier studies have estimated the impact of increased body mass index (BMI) on healthcare costs. Various methods have been used to avoid potential biases and inconsistencies. Each of these methods measure different local effects and have different strengths and weaknesses.
    METHODS: In the current study we estimate the impact of increased BMI on healthcare costs using nine common methods from the literature: multivariable regression analyses (ordinary least squares, generalized linear models, and two-part models), and instrumental variable models (using previously measured BMI, offspring BMI, and three different weighted genetic risk scores as instruments for BMI). We stratified by sex, investigated the implications of confounder adjustment, and modelled both linear and non-linear associations.
    RESULTS: There was a positive effect of increased BMI in both males and females in each approach. The cost of elevated BMI was higher in models that, to a greater extent, account for endogenous relations.
    CONCLUSIONS: The study provides solid evidence that there is an association between BMI and healthcare costs, and demonstrates the importance of triangulation.
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