economic loss

经济损失
  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    UNASSIGNED: This study was aimed at comparing deaths, years of potential life loss (YPLL), and economic loss due to nine non-communicable diseases (NCDs) among Health Council of Gulf Cooperation (GCC) countries.
    UNASSIGNED: The number of deaths and life expectancy by age and sex in each country, obtained from the 2019 World Health Organization database, were used to calculate YPLL by disease and sex. Economic loss was estimated by combining the annual income adjusted for the present value multiplied by the YPLL for each disease by sex and country.
    UNASSIGNED: The nine NCDs were responsible for 152,854 deaths, 3 million YPLL, and 23.9 billion US$ economic loss in GCC countries. The most common cause of death was ischemic heart disease, which caused 82,232 deaths (54% of the total), 1.6 million YPLL (54% of the total), and a 12.8 billion US$ economic loss (53% of the total). The least common cause of death was lung cancer, which caused 1,960 deaths, 37,287 YPLL, and a 317.6 million US$ economic loss. KSA was the most affected country among all GCC countries in terms of deaths (68,027), YPLL (1.4 million), and economic loss (14.3 billion US$). Notably, KSA had 45%, 49%, and 60% of the entire region\'s deaths, YPLL, and economic loss, respectively. In contrast, Qatar was the least affected country in terms of deaths and YPLL, and Yemen was the least affected country in terms of economic loss.
    UNASSIGNED: The burden of NCDs in GCC countries in terms of deaths, YPLL, and economic loss is substantial. Policymakers should pay greater attention to detecting, preventing, and controlling these NCDs and their risk factors.
    UNASSIGNED: تهدف هذه الدراسة إلى مقارنة الوفيات وسنوات فقدان الحياة المحتملة والخسائر الاقتصادية الناجمة عن تسعة أمراض غير معدية بين مجالس الصحة لدول مجلس التعاون الخليجي.
    UNASSIGNED: تم الحصول على عدد الوفيات ومتوسطالعمر المتوقع حسب العمر والجنس في كل بلد من قاعدة بيانات منظمة الصحة العالمية لعام 2019 لحساب سنوات فقدان الحياة المحتملة حسب المرض والجنس. تم تقدير الخسارة الاقتصادية من خلال الجمع بين الدخل السنوي المعدل للقيمة الحالية مضروبا في مستويات سنوات فقدان الحياة المحتملة لكل مرض حسب الجنس والبلد.
    UNASSIGNED: كشفت النتائج أن الأمراض غير المعدية التسعة كانت مسؤولة عن 152,854 حالة وفاة، و3 ملايين حالة سنة من الحياة المحتملة المفقودة و23.9 مليار دولار أمريكي كخسارة اقتصادية في دول مجلس التعاون الخليجي. كان السبب الأكثر شيوعا للوفاة هو مرض نقص تروية القلب الذي تسبب في 82,232 حالة وفاة (54% من الإجمالي)، و1.6 مليون حالة وفاة (54% من الإجمالي)، و12.8 مليار دولار أمريكي من الخسائر الاقتصادية (53% من الإجمالي). من ناحية أخرى، كان سرطان الرئة هو السبب الأقل شيوعا للوفاة، حيث تسبب في وفاة 1960 شخصا، و37287 شخصا من سنوات فقدان الحياة المحتملة، و317.6 مليون دولار أمريكي كخسارة اقتصادية. وكانت المملكة العربية السعودية الدولة الأكثر تضررا بين جميع دول مجلس التعاون الخليجي من حيث الوفيات (68,027)، وسنوات فقدان الحياة المحتملة (1,4 مليون)، والخسائر الاقتصادية (14.3 مليار دولار أمريكي). وتجدر الإشارة إلى أن المملكة العربية السعودية تمثل 45%، و49%، و60% من الوفيات، والخسائر الاقتصادية، على التوالي للمنطقة بأكملها. وفي المقابل، تعتبر قطر الدولة الأقل تضررا من حيث الوفيات والإصابات، في حين أن اليمن هي الدولة الأقل تضررا من حيث الخسارة الاقتصادية.
    UNASSIGNED: أظهرت نتائج هذه الدراسة أن عبء الأمراض غير المعدية في دول مجلس التعاون الخليجي كان كبيرا من حيث الوفيات، وحالات الوفاة المبكرة، والخسائر الاقتصادية. ويتعين على صناع السياسات أن يولوا المزيد من الاهتمام لاكتشاف هذه الأمراض غير المعدية والوقاية منها والسيطرة عليها وعوامل الخطر المرتبطة بها.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    车辆排放已成为城市空气污染的重要来源,并对特定污染源造成的空气污染排放特征和健康影响进行评估,为空气质量管理提供科学依据。
    在本文中,中国典型城市群(京津冀城市群(BTHUA)的机动车PM2.5污染,以中国中部城市群(TCCUA)和成渝城市群(CCUA)为研究样本,基于排放清单的机动车PM2.5污染的健康影响和经济损失,2010年至2020年的空气质量模型和暴露响应函数。
    结果表明,2010-2020年,三大城市群机动车PM2.5排放量呈逐年上升趋势,近年来呈缓慢下降趋势。重型卡车和公共汽车是PM2.5的主要贡献车辆,轻型车辆对PM2.5的贡献率逐年提高。北京PM2.5的贡献率明显下降。除省会城市和直辖市外,其他城市的污染物排放不容忽视。机动车PM2.5污染对人群健康影响的评价结果表明:BTHUA和CCUA中机动车PM2.5污染引起的各健康终点数量总体呈上升趋势,而TCCUA近年来呈下降趋势。其中,三大城市群机动车PM2.5污染导致约78200人(95%CI:20500-138800人)过早死亡,122,800名(95%CI:25,600-220,500名)住院患者,2020年门诊病人为628,400人(95%CI:307,400-930,400人)和1,332,400人(95%CI:482,700-2,075,600人)。2010年、2015年和2020年三大城市群机动车PM2.5污染造成的健康经济损失合计为682.5亿元(95%CI:21.65-109.16),2063.3亿元(95%CI:66.20-326.20)和300.73亿元(95%CI:96.79-473.16),占0.67%(95%CI:0.21-1.07%),占这些城市GDP总量的1.19%(95%CI:0.38%-1.88%)和1.21%(95%CI:0.39%-1.90%)。
    由于车辆人口的差异,PM2.5浓度,卫生终端单位的人口数量和经济价值,不同地区不同城市的健康影响和经济损失存在差异。其中,北京市健康风险和经济损失问题比较突出,成都,重庆,天津和武汉。
    UNASSIGNED: Vehicle emissions have become an important source of urban air pollution, and the assessment of air pollution emission characteristics and health effects caused by specific pollution sources can provide scientific basis for air quality management.
    UNASSIGNED: In this paper, vehicle PM2.5 pollution in typical urban agglomerations of China (the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration (BTHUA), the triangle of the Central China urban agglomeration (TCCUA) and the Chengdu-Chongqing urban agglomeration (CCUA)) were used as research samples to evaluate the emission characteristics, health effects and economic losses of vehicle PM2.5 pollution based on the emission inventory, air quality model and exposure-response function from 2010 to 2020.
    UNASSIGNED: The results indicated that PM2.5 emissions from vehicles in the three urban agglomerations during 2010-2020 first showed an upward yearly trend and then showed a slow decrease in recent years. Heavy-duty trucks and buses are the main contribution vehicles of PM2.5, and the contribution rates of light-duty vehicles to PM2.5 is increasing year by year. The contribution rate of PM2.5 in Beijing decreased significantly. In addition to capital cities and municipalities directly under the central Government, the emission of pollutants in other cities cannot be ignored. The evaluation results of the impact of PM2.5 pollution from vehicles on population health show that: the number of each health endpoint caused by PM2.5 pollution from vehicles in the BTHUA and CCUA showed an overall upward trend, while the TCCUA showed a downward trend in recent years. Among them, PM2.5 pollution from vehicles in the three major urban agglomerations cause about 78,200 (95% CI: 20,500-138,800) premature deaths, 122,800 (95% CI: 25,600-220,500) inpatients, and 628,400 (95% CI: 307,400-930,400) outpatients and 1,332,400 (95% CI: 482,700-2,075,600) illness in 2020. The total health economic losses caused by PM2.5 pollution from vehicles in the three major urban agglomerations in 2010, 2015 and 2020 were 68.25 billion yuan (95% CI: 21.65-109.16), 206.33 billion yuan (95% CI: 66.20-326.20) and 300.73 billion yuan (95% CI: 96.79-473.16), accounting for 0.67% (95% CI: 0.21-1.07%), 1.19% (95% CI: 0.38%-1.88%) and 1.21% (95% CI: 0.39%-1.90%) of the total GDP of these cities.
    UNASSIGNED: Due to the differences in vehicle population, PM2.5 concentration, population number and economic value of health terminal units, there are differences in health effects and economic losses among different cities in different regions. Among them, the problems of health risks and economic losses were relatively prominent in Beijing, Chengdu, Chongqing, Tianjin and Wuhan.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    Objective: To investigate the current status of disease burden and its influencing factors among welder\'s pneumoconiosis patients, and provide scientific basis for taking targeted intervention measures. Methods: From June 2022 to June 2023, the patients with welder\'s pneumoconiosis in Jiangsu Province were selected from 1956 to 2020 as the research objects, and disability adjusted life years (DALY) were used as the comprehensive index to study the disease burden. The direct and indirect economic losses caused by the diseases were calculated, and the factors affecting the disease burden were discussed by multiple linear regression method. Results: A total of 974 cases of welder\'s pneumoconiosis were reported in Jiangsu Province, the cumulative loss of DALY was 6300.73 person-years, and the per capita loss was 6.47 person-years. Among them, the healthy life years lost due to disability (YLD) was 6156.50 person-years (97.71%) , and the healthy life years lost due to premature death (YLL) was 144.23 person-years (2.29%) . Multiple linear regression analysis showed that the main factors affecting DALY were disability grade, diagnostic age, pneumoconiosis grade and length of dust exposure (P<0.05) . The total economic loss caused by 974 welder\'s pneumoconiosis patients was 1831838160.18 yuan, and the per capita loss was 1880737.33 yuan. Among them, the direct economic loss was 970917563.75 yuan (53.00%) , and the indirect economic loss was 860920596.43 yuan (47.00%) . Conclusion: Welder\'s pneumoconiosis causes serious disease burden to patients, and at the same time causes huge economic losses to individuals and society, which seriously hinders the development of society. Taking effective control measures to prevent the incidence of welder\'s pneumoconiosis is the key to reduce the disease burden.
    目的: 探讨电焊工尘肺患者疾病负担现状及其影响因素,为采取有针对性的干预措施提供科学依据。 方法: 于2022年6月至2023年6月,选取1956至2020年江苏省电焊工尘肺患者为研究对象(974例),采用伤残调整寿命年(DALY)等作为研究疾病负担的综合指标,计算患者因疾病所产生的直接和间接经济损失,利用多元线性回归法探讨影响疾病负担的因素。 结果: 江苏省报告的974例电焊工尘肺患者,累计损失的DALY为6 300.73人年,人均损失6.47人年,其中因伤残所损失的健康寿命年为6 156.50人年(97.71%),因早死所损失的健康寿命年为144.23人年(2.29%)。多元线性回归分析显示,影响DALY的主要因素为伤残等级、诊断年龄、尘肺期别和接尘工龄(P<0.05)。974例电焊工尘肺患者所造成的总经济损失为1 831 838 160.18元,人均损失为1 880 737.33元;其中直接经济损失为970 917 563.75元(53.00%),间接经济损失为860 920 596.43元(47.00%)。 结论: 电焊工尘肺给患者造成严重的疾病负担,同时给个人和社会造成了巨大的经济损失,严重阻碍了社会的发展,采取有效控制措施预防电焊工尘肺发病是减少其疾病负担的关键。.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    COVID-19疫情对我国经济社会发展产生了重大影响。了解疫情对经济的直接和间接影响,对于制定科学的疫情管理政策至关重要。本研究评估了中国大规模疫情的经济损失和影响路径。我们提出了三种COVID-19场景-严重,正常,从需求角度评估经济对中国GDP的直接影响。使用投入产出模型来估计间接影响。我们的研究结果表明,在严重的情况下,中国GDP可能会损失94,206,75,365和56,524亿元,正常,和温和的场景,分别,相应的GDP下降率为9.27%,7.42%,5.56%。在正常情况下,间接经济损失和总损失预计分别为75364和489386亿元,分别。此外,大流行导致碳排放量减少:直接排放量减少121869万吨,间接排放量9,594.32万吨,各行业的总排放量为10,813.01万吨。这项研究提供了对大流行的经济和环境影响的全面分析。
    The COVID-19 pandemic has significantly impacted China\'s economic and social development. Understanding the direct and indirect effects of the epidemic on the economy is vital for formulating scientifically grounded epidemic management policies. This study assesses the economic losses and influence paths of a large-scale epidemic in China. We proposed three COVID-19 scenarios - serious, normal, and mild - to evaluate the direct economic impact on China\'s GDP from a demand perspective. An input-output model was used to estimate the indirect impact. Our findings show that China\'s GDP could lose 94,206, 75,365, and 56,524 hundred million yuan under serious, normal, and mild scenarios, respectively, with corresponding GDP decline rates of 9.27%, 7.42%, and 5.56%. Under the normal scenario, indirect economic loss and total loss are projected at 75,364 and 489,386 hundred million yuan, respectively. Additionally, the pandemic led to a reduction in carbon emissions: direct emissions decreased by 1,218.69 million tons, indirect emissions by 9,594.32 million tons, and total emissions by 10,813.01 million tons across various industries. This study provides a comprehensive analysis of the economic and environmental impacts of the pandemic.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    中国农村住宅普遍存在家庭空气污染,然而,全国范围内仍然缺乏对污染水平和可归因于疾病负担的全面理解。这项研究进行了系统的综述,重点是阐明室内普遍存在的家庭空气污染物的浓度,PM2.5、PAHs、CO,中国农村家庭的SO2和甲醛。随后,通过剂量-反应关系和统计寿命值对中国农村人口中家庭空气污染导致的过早死亡和经济损失进行了量化.调查结果表明,农村室内空气污染水平经常超过中国的国家标准,表现出显著的空间差异。在2000年至2022年期间,中国农村地区家庭空气污染导致的年度过早死亡率估计为96.6万(95%CI:714-1226),约占中国农村居民总死亡率的22.2%(95%CI:16.4%-28.1%)。此外,与这些过早死亡相关的经济损失估计为每年4860亿元人民币(95%CI:358-616),占中国GDP的0.92%(95%CI:0.68%-1.16%)。研究结果定量地证明了中国农村家庭空气污染造成的巨大疾病负担,这凸显了有针对性的迫切需要,针对特定地区的干预措施,以改善这一紧迫的公共卫生问题。
    Household air pollution prevails in rural residences across China, yet a comprehensive nationwide comprehending of pollution levels and the attributable disease burdens remains lacking. This study conducted a systematic review focusing on elucidating the indoor concentrations of prevalent household air pollutants-specifically, PM2.5, PAHs, CO, SO2, and formaldehyde-in rural Chinese households. Subsequently, the premature deaths and economic losses attributable to household air pollution among the rural population of China were quantified through dose-response relationships and the value of statistical life. The findings reveal that rural indoor air pollution levels frequently exceed China\'s national standards, exhibiting notable spatial disparities. The estimated annual premature mortality attributable to household air pollution in rural China amounts to 966 thousand (95% CI: 714-1226) deaths between 2000 and 2022, representing approximately 22.2% (95% CI: 16.4%-28.1%) of total mortality among rural Chinese residents. Furthermore, the economic toll associated with these premature deaths is estimated at 486 billion CNY (95% CI: 358-616) per annum, constituting 0.92% (95% CI: 0.68%-1.16%) of China\'s GDP. The findings quantitatively demonstrate the substantial disease burden attributable to household air pollution in rural China, which highlights the pressing imperative for targeted, region-specific interventions to ameliorate this pressing public health concern.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    背景:评估肿瘤患者医院获得性感染(HAIs)的经济损失,以帮助政策制定者分配医疗资源并解决该问题。
    方法:我们进行了回顾性研究,2022年1月1日至12月31日在大型地区肿瘤医院进行的1:1匹配病例对照研究。经济负担估计为各种住院费用和住院时间(LOS)的1:1对差异的中位数。
    结果:在这项对329对配对的研究中,HAIs患者的住院费用较高(即,16927美元),并经历了更长的医院LOS(即,22天),与非HAI组相比。由HAIs引起的额外住院费用和延长的住院时间为$4919和9天,分别。因此,可归因于HAI的直接非医疗经济损失约为每例478~835美元。此外,住院费用的增加因感染部位而异,肿瘤类型和年龄。
    结论:HAIs导致肿瘤患者的直接经济负担和住院LOS增加。我们的发现强调了在医院实施有效的感染控制措施以减轻肿瘤患者经济负担的重要性。
    To evaluate the economic loss of hospital-acquired infections (HAIs) among tumor patients so as to help policymakers to allocate health care resources and address the issue.
    We conducted a retrospective, 1:1 matched case-control study in a large region cancer hospital between January 1 and December 31, 2022. The economic burden was estimated as the median of the 1:1 pair differences of various hospitalization fees and hospital length of stay (LOS).
    In this study of 329 matched pairs, the patients with HAIs incurred higher hospitalization cost (ie, $16,927) and experienced longer hospital LOS (ie, 22 days), compared to the non-HAI groups. The extra hospitalization cost and the prolonged hospital LOS caused by HAIs were $4,919 and 9 days, respectively. Accordingly, the direct nonmedical economic loss attributable to HAI was approximately $478 to 835 per case. Furthermore, the increment of hospitalization costs varied by sites of infection, types of tumors, and stratum of age.
    HAIs lead to the increment of direct economic burden and hospital LOS in tumor patients. Our findings highlight the importance of implementing effective infection control measures in hospitals to reduce the financial burden on tumor patients.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    西北地区频繁的空气污染事件对人类健康构成严重威胁。然而,在PM2.5相关疾病负担方面缺乏具体的差异评估.因此,我们旨在估计这个典型的西北地区与PM2.5相关的过早死亡和健康经济损失,考虑到疾病特异性,特定年龄,和特定地区的因素。
    我们利用WRF-Chem模型模拟和分析了甘肃省PM2.5污染的特征和暴露水平,中国西北地区的典型地区。随后,我们通过结合全球暴露死亡率模型(GEMM)和统计寿命值(VSL)估算了与PM2.5相关的过早死亡率和健康经济损失.
    结果表明,2019年甘肃省PM2.5浓度空间变化,从北向南减少。PM2.5污染导致的非意外死亡人数估计为14,224人(95%CI:11,716-16,689人)。占总死亡人数的8.6%。PM2.5相关卫生经济损失达28.66(95%CI:23.61-336.3)亿元,。相当于2019年地区国内生产总值(GDP)的3.3%。缺血性心脏病(IHD)和中风是导致PM2.5死亡的主要原因,占总数的50.6%。60岁及以上的老年人占所有与年龄有关的疾病死亡的80%以上。与其他地区相比,兰州的归因死亡人数和卫生经济损失人数更高。尽管在河西走廊地区,PM2.5导致的死亡人数较低,人均卫生经济损失较高。
    甘肃省在PM2.5污染以及疾病和特定年龄的健康负担方面表现出明显的区域特征。这凸显了实施针对当地条件的量身定制措施以减轻与PM2.5污染相关的健康风险和经济后果的重要性。
    Frequent air pollution events in Northwest China pose a serious threat to human health. However, there is a lack of specific differences assessment in PM2.5-related disease burden. Therefore, we aimed to estimate the PM2.5-related premature deaths and health economic losses in this typical northwest region, taking into account disease-specific, age-specific, and region-specific factors.
    We utilized the WRF-Chem model to simulate and analyze the characteristics and exposure levels of PM2.5 pollution in Gansu Province, a typical region of Northwest China. Subsequently, we estimated the premature mortality and health economic losses associated with PM2.5 by combining the Global Exposure Mortality Model (GEMM) and the Value of a Statistical Life (VSL).
    The results suggested that the PM2.5 concentrations in Gansu Province in 2019 varied spatially, with a decrease from north to south. The number of non-accidental deaths attributable to PM2.5 pollution was estimated to be 14,224 (95% CI: 11,716-16,689), accounting for 8.6% of the total number of deaths. The PM2.5-related health economic loss amounted to 28.66 (95% CI: 23.61-33.63) billion yuan, equivalent to 3.3% of the regional gross domestic product (GDP) in 2019. Ischemic heart disease (IHD) and stroke were the leading causes of PM2.5-attributed deaths, contributing to 50.6% of the total. Older adult individuals aged 60 and above accounted for over 80% of all age-related disease deaths. Lanzhou had a higher number of attributable deaths and health economic losses compared to other regions. Although the number of PM2.5-attributed deaths was lower in the Hexi Corridor region, the per capita health economic loss was higher.
    Gansu Province exhibits distinct regional characteristics in terms of PM2.5 pollution as well as disease- and age-specific health burdens. This highlights the significance of implementing tailored measures that are specific to local conditions to mitigate the health risks and economic ramifications associated with PM2.5 pollution.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    目的:建立牛白血病病毒(BLV)前病毒载量(PVL)阈值,以确定严重临床乳腺炎的风险增加,并根据新建立的PVL临界值检查临床乳腺炎的预后和经济损失。
    方法:对患有临床乳腺炎的荷斯坦奶牛进行泌乳。
    方法:从每头牛无菌收集血液和牛奶样品。Youden指数用于受试者工作特征曲线分析,以临床乳腺炎的严重程度为因变量,PVL为自变量。PVL截断值作为比较临床乳腺炎严重程度的标准,接受和不接受系统治疗的奶牛的百分比,治疗次数,治疗费用,和预后。
    结果:因变量MILD与SEVERE的PVL截断值为17.8拷贝/10ngDNA。临床乳腺炎的严重程度,接受系统治疗的奶牛百分比,高于PVL截断值组的医疗技术费用明显高于低于PVL截断值组和阴性组。高于截断值组的处理次数显著高于低于截断值组的处理次数。3组乳腺炎后的预后差异无统计学意义。
    结论:这些结果表明,17.8拷贝/10ngDNA的PVL截止值是增加BLV感染奶牛经济损失的有用阈值;它也可以作为日本BLV感染奶牛检测和剔除的新标准值。
    OBJECTIVE: To establish a threshold value of bovine leukemia virus (BLV) proviral load (PVL) to identify increased risk of severe clinical mastitis, and to examine the prognosis and economic loss of clinical mastitis based on the newly established PVL cut-off value.
    METHODS: 97 lactating Holstein cows with clinical mastitis.
    METHODS: Blood and milk samples were collected aseptically from each cow. Youden index was used for receiver-operating characteristic curve analysis with the severity rate of clinical mastitis as the dependent variable and PVL as an independent variable. PVL cut-off value was used as a criterion to compare the severity rate of clinical mastitis, percentage of cows with and without systemic treatments, number of treatments, cost of treatment, and prognosis.
    RESULTS: PVL cut-off value was 17.8 copies/10 ng DNA for the dependent variable MILD vs SEVERE. The severity rate of clinical mastitis, percentage of cows given systemic treatments, and technical fees for medical treatment were significantly higher in the group above the PVL cut-off value than in the group below the PVL cut-off value and the negative group. Number of treatments was significantly higher in the group above the cut-off value than in the group below the cut-off value. There was no significant difference in prognosis after mastitis among the 3 groups.
    CONCLUSIONS: These results suggested that PVL cut-off value of 17.8 copies/10 ng DNA was a useful threshold for increased economic losses in BLV-infected cows; it may also serve as a new standard value for the detection and culling of BLV-infected cows in Japan.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    气候变化被认为通过加剧与热相关的劳动生产率损失来增加经济成本。虽然已经就这一主题进行了广泛的全球和国家研究,很少有研究分析了国家以下和个人的经济影响,可能会削弱地方政府应对气候变化的动力。找出受影响最严重的地区和劳动力可以帮助气候政策制定者确定优先地区和部门,以有效分配适应资源。并加强利益相关者的参与。这项研究采用了省级可计算一般均衡模型,通过在建模工作中区分不同的劳动力和地区来解决上述差距。该研究估计了三种气候变化情景下不同水平的经济成本(较低(SSP126),中间(SSP245),和更高(SSP585)变暖情景)。位于中国西南部的低收入地区(如广西和贵州),将经历最大的经济损失,在SSP245情景下,到2100年比中国高收入国家高出3.4-7.1倍。此外,这些地区对热高度敏感的劳动力的工资预计将上涨,例如,广西上涨8.3%,受到对这些劳动力需求不断增长的推动。相反,其他人会经历工资大幅下降,尤其是那些敏感度较低的人(例如,managers).因此,我们建议向这些受影响最严重的地区分配更多的国家财政支持,并建议政府鼓励管理人员向容易受热的工人提供援助。
    Climate change is considered to increase economic costs by worsening heat-related labor productivity loss. While extensive global and national research has been conducted on this topic, few studies have analyzed subnational and individual economic impacts, potentially weakening local governments\' motivation to tackle climate change. Figuring out the most affected regions and labors could help climate policymakers to identify priority regions and sectors to allocate adaptation resources efficiently, and enhance stakeholder engagement. This study adopted a provincial Computable General Equilibrium model by distinguishing different labors and regions in modelling work to address the aforementioned gap. The study estimated economic costs at different level under three climate change scenarios (lower (SSP126), middle (SSP245), and higher (SSP585) warming scenario). Low-income regions located in southwest part of China (such as Guangxi and Guizhou), would experience the largest economic loss, 3.4-7.1 times higher than high-income in China by 2100 under SSP245 scenario. Additionally, wages for labors highly sensitive to heat in these regions are expected to rise, for example, by an 8.3% rise in Guangxi, driven by the rising demand for these labors. Conversely, others would experience a significant wage decrease, especially those with less sensitivity (e.g., managers). Therefore, we recommended that national financial supports be allocated more to these most affected regions and that government encourage managers provide assistance to workers vulnerable to heat.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    这项研究的目的是分析北海道东部奶牛场在生命的第一个月中的小牛死亡和扑杀(DC)以及相关的经济损失,日本。对2019-2020年在39个挤奶的奶牛场中出生的4411头荷斯坦和和牛杂交小牛的第一个月的DC进行了调查。基于6.75%的目标DC率,农场分为两组,那些具有高DC速率(HDC,11.68%,n=18)和低DC速率(LDC,2.67%,n=21),并分析了DC因素(品种,性别,大坝的平价,和大坝的住房类型)和导致DC的疾病,他们的损失估计,和DC小牛的补充(出生率,购买小母牛,和大坝的住房类型)。使用Kaplan-Meier方法进行组间比较,Mann-WhitneyU测试,和卡方检验。HDC农场的HolsteinsDC率显着高于LDC农场(P<0.001)。但是,和牛杂种的DC率在各组之间没有差异,这表明杂种活力。HDC养殖场消化系统疾病的DC发病率显著高于(P<0.01),除了先天性疾病和原因不明的死亡。所有农场每小牛月DC的总体损失估计为8892日元/小牛月,HDC农场的14,726,和4065最不发达国家农场。在HDC农场中,DC率存在显著差异的项目的损失估计显著较高(P<0.05),HDC农场最常见的特征是对荷斯坦和消化系统疾病的损失估计较高。在二项逻辑回归分析中,以“HDC农场与否”为响应变量,以DC小牛的补充为解释变量,HDC是显著更可能(OR:1.10,P<0.05)在农场出生比例较高的荷斯坦,HDC农场通过增加荷斯坦的出生比例来补充DC小牛。
    The objective of this study was to analyze death and culling (DC) of calves during the first month of life and associated economic losses on dairy farms in eastern Hokkaido, Japan. The DC in the first month of life of 4411 Holstein and Wagyu crossbred calves born in the year 2019-2020 on 39 dairy farms milking Holsteins was investigated. Based on a target DC rate of 6.75%, farms were classified into two groups, those with high DC rates (HDC, 11.68%, n = 18) and those with low DC rates (LDC, 2.67%, n = 21), and analyzed for DC factors (breed, sex, parity of dams, and housing type of dams) and diseases causing DC, their loss estimates, and replenishment of DC calves (birth rate, purchase of heifers, and housing type of dams). Comparisons between groups were made using the Kaplan-Meier method, the Mann-Whitney U test, and chi-square test. The DC rate of Holsteins was significantly higher (P < 0.001) for HDC farms than for LDC ones. But, the DC rate of Wagyu crossbreds was not different between the groups, which suggested hybrid vigor. The DC rates for digestive diseases were significantly higher (P < 0.01) in the HDC farms, except for congenital diseases and deaths of unknown cause. The overall loss estimates of DC per calf-month for all farms was 8892, JPY/calf-months, 14,726 for HDC farms, and 4065 for LDC farms. The loss estimates of items with significant differences in DC rates were significantly higher (P < 0.05) in the HDC farms, with higher loss estimates for Holsteins and digestive diseases being the most common characteristics of HDC farms. In binomial logistic regression analysis with \"HDC farms or not\" as the response variable and replenishment of DC calves as the explanatory variable, HDC was significantly more likely (OR: 1.10, P < 0.05) on farms with a higher birth proportion of Holsteins, and HDC farms supplemented the DC calves by increasing the birth proportion of Holsteins.
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