■车辆排放已成为城市空气污染的重要来源,并对特定污染源造成的空气污染排放特征和健康影响进行评估,为空气质量管理提供科学依据。
■在本文中,中国典型城市群(京津冀城市群(BTHUA)的机动车PM2.5污染,以中国中部城市群(TCCUA)和成渝城市群(CCUA)为研究样本,基于排放清单的机动车PM2.5污染的健康影响和经济损失,2010年至2020年的空气质量模型和暴露响应函数。
■结果表明,2010-2020年,三大城市群机动车PM2.5排放量呈逐年上升趋势,近年来呈缓慢下降趋势。重型卡车和公共汽车是PM2.5的主要贡献车辆,轻型车辆对PM2.5的贡献率逐年提高。北京PM2.5的贡献率明显下降。除省会城市和直辖市外,其他城市的污染物排放不容忽视。机动车PM2.5污染对人群健康影响的评价结果表明:BTHUA和CCUA中机动车PM2.5污染引起的各健康终点数量总体呈上升趋势,而TCCUA近年来呈下降趋势。其中,三大城市群机动车PM2.5污染导致约78200人(95%CI:20500-138800人)过早死亡,122,800名(95%CI:25,600-220,500名)住院患者,2020年门诊病人为628,400人(95%CI:307,400-930,400人)和1,332,400人(95%CI:482,700-2,075,600人)。2010年、2015年和2020年三大城市群机动车PM2.5污染造成的健康经济损失合计为682.5亿元(95%CI:21.65-109.16),2063.3亿元(95%CI:66.20-326.20)和300.73亿元(95%CI:96.79-473.16),占0.67%(95%CI:0.21-1.07%),占这些城市GDP总量的1.19%(95%CI:0.38%-1.88%)和1.21%(95%CI:0.39%-1.90%)。
■由于车辆人口的差异,PM2.5浓度,卫生终端单位的人口数量和经济价值,不同地区不同城市的健康影响和经济损失存在差异。其中,北京市健康风险和经济损失问题比较突出,成都,重庆,天津和武汉。
UNASSIGNED: Vehicle emissions have become an important source of urban air pollution, and the assessment of air pollution emission characteristics and health effects caused by specific pollution sources can provide scientific basis for air quality management.
UNASSIGNED: In this paper, vehicle PM2.5 pollution in typical urban agglomerations of China (the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration (BTHUA), the triangle of the Central China urban agglomeration (TCCUA) and the Chengdu-Chongqing urban agglomeration (CCUA)) were used as research samples to evaluate the emission characteristics, health effects and economic losses of vehicle PM2.5 pollution based on the emission inventory, air quality model and exposure-response function from 2010 to 2020.
UNASSIGNED: The results indicated that PM2.5 emissions from vehicles in the three urban agglomerations during 2010-2020 first showed an upward yearly trend and then showed a slow decrease in recent years. Heavy-duty trucks and buses are the main contribution vehicles of PM2.5, and the contribution rates of light-duty vehicles to PM2.5 is increasing year by year. The contribution rate of PM2.5 in Beijing decreased significantly. In addition to capital cities and municipalities directly under the central Government, the emission of pollutants in other cities cannot be ignored. The evaluation results of the impact of PM2.5 pollution from vehicles on population health show that: the number of each health endpoint caused by PM2.5 pollution from vehicles in the BTHUA and CCUA showed an overall upward trend, while the TCCUA showed a downward trend in recent years. Among them, PM2.5 pollution from vehicles in the three major urban agglomerations cause about 78,200 (95% CI: 20,500-138,800) premature deaths, 122,800 (95% CI: 25,600-220,500) inpatients, and 628,400 (95% CI: 307,400-930,400) outpatients and 1,332,400 (95% CI: 482,700-2,075,600) illness in 2020. The total health economic losses caused by PM2.5 pollution from vehicles in the three major urban agglomerations in 2010, 2015 and 2020 were 68.25 billion yuan (95% CI: 21.65-109.16), 206.33 billion yuan (95% CI: 66.20-326.20) and 300.73 billion yuan (95% CI: 96.79-473.16), accounting for 0.67% (95% CI: 0.21-1.07%), 1.19% (95% CI: 0.38%-1.88%) and 1.21% (95% CI: 0.39%-1.90%) of the total GDP of these cities.
UNASSIGNED: Due to the differences in vehicle population, PM2.5 concentration, population number and economic value of health terminal units, there are differences in health effects and economic losses among different cities in different regions. Among them, the problems of health risks and economic losses were relatively prominent in Beijing, Chengdu, Chongqing, Tianjin and Wuhan.