disease outbreaks

疾病爆发
  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    控制图帮助流行病学家和医疗保健专业人员实时监测疾病发病率和患病率,预防疫情和突发卫生事件。然而,这些技术的综合探索和应用仍然存在明显差距,特别是在监测和管理疾病暴发的背景下。本研究分析并分类了2000年至2023年全球控制图在20多个国家的疫情监测中的应用,专注于冠状病毒(COVID-19),并选择最佳控制图监测2020年2月至2023年12月的美国COVID-19死亡波。系统的文献综述分析了现有的35篇文章,按年份对数据进行分类,变量,国家,研究类型,和图表设计。选择的最佳图表用于监测美国的COVID-19死亡模式和波。在COVID-19大流行期间,流行病学监测中的控制图采用有所增加,2021年至2023年的年度模式显示上升(18%,36%,41%)。从2000年到2019年的重要变量包括流感计数,沙门氏菌病例,和感染率,虽然COVID-19研究更侧重于病例,感染率,症状,和死亡。在22个国家中,美国(29%)是控制图应用最多的国家。美国COVID-19死亡监测显示8波,严重程度不同>>>>>>>与JN.1变体相关的,突出了持续的挑战。本研究强调控制图在暴发监测中对疾病早期诊断和干预的意义。控制图帮助医护人员使用数据驱动的方法管理流行病,改善公众健康。COVID-19死亡率分析强调了它们的重要性,鼓励全球使用。
    Control charts help epidemiologists and healthcare professionals monitor disease incidence and prevalence in real time, preventing outbreaks and health emergencies. However, there remains a notable gap in the comprehensive exploration and application of these techniques, particularly in the context of monitoring and managing disease outbreaks. This study analyses and categorizes worldwide control chart applications from 2000 to 2023 in outbreak monitoring in over 20 countries, focusing on corona-virus (COVID-19), and chooses optimal control charts for monitoring US COVID-19 death waves from February 2020 to December 2023. The systematic literature review analyzes available 35 articles, categorizing data by year, variable, country, study type, and chart design. A selected optimal chart is applied to monitor COVID-19 death patterns and waves in the USA. Control chart adoption in epidemiology monitoring increased during the COVID-19 pandemic, with annual patterns showing a rise in 2021 to 2023 (18%, 36%, 41%). Important variables from 2000 to 2019 include influenza counts, Salmonella cases, and infection rates, while COVID-19 studies focus more on cases, infection rates, symptoms, and deaths. Among 22 countries, the USA (29%) is the top applier of control charts. The monitoring of USA COVID-19 deaths reveals 8 waves with varying severity  >  >  >  >  >  >  > . The associated with the JN.1 variant, highlights ongoing challenges. This study emphasizes the significance of control charts in outbreak monitoring for early disease diagnosis and intervention. Control charts help healthcare workers manage epidemics using data-driven methods, improving public health. COVID-19 mortality analysis emphasizes their importance, encouraging worldwide use.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    在新生儿重症监护病房(NICU)环境中,耐甲氧西林金黄色葡萄球菌(MRSA)的爆发得到了很好的描述。基因组学彻底改变了对此类疫情的调查;然而,到目前为止,这在很大程度上是回顾性完成的,并且通常依赖于短阅读平台。2022年,我们的实验室使用牛津纳米孔技术测序建立了一个前瞻性基因组监测系统,用于快速爆发检测。在这里,使用这个系统,我们描述了在我们的NICU中发现和控制序列型(ST)97MRSA的暴发.在第一次MRSA阳性培养后13天,在只有两个已知病例的地方确定了爆发。病房筛查迅速确定了疫情的范围,还有另外六个婴儿被发现是殖民地。一旦发现爆发,并采取了适当的感染控制措施,传播最少;仅发现了另外两个ST97病例,以及3例无关的非ST97MRSA病例。为了了解疫情的背景,在从头组装纳米孔数据后,鉴定核心基因组单核苷酸变体用于系统发育分析.与全球(n=45)和国家监测(n=35)ST97基因组的比较揭示了该ST97子集内甲氧西林抗性的逐步演变。确定了一个由来自NICU的十个ST97-IVa基因组中的九个组成的独特簇,2020年至2022年的国家监测菌株是该集群的外群。推测是爆发的一部分的一个ST97-IVa基因组形成了一个外群,并被回顾性排除。使用Illumina测序创建了第二个系统发育,这大大减少了系统发育树上NICU分离株的分支长度。然而,整体树拓扑和结论不变,除了NICU爆发集群外,观察到分支长度的差异。该分析证明了仅纳米孔的前瞻性基因组监测系统能够快速识别和了解NICU中MRSA的爆发。
    Outbreaks of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) are well described in the neonatal intensive care unit (NICU) setting. Genomics has revolutionized the investigation of such outbreaks; however, to date, this has largely been completed retrospectively and has typically relied on short-read platforms. In 2022, our laboratory established a prospective genomic surveillance system using Oxford Nanopore Technologies sequencing for rapid outbreak detection. Herein, using this system, we describe the detection and control of an outbreak of sequence-type (ST)97 MRSA in our NICU. The outbreak was identified 13 days after the first MRSA-positive culture and at a point where there were only two known cases. Ward screening rapidly defined the extent of the outbreak, with six other infants found to be colonized. There was minimal transmission once the outbreak had been detected and appropriate infection control measures had been instituted; only two further ST97 cases were detected, along with three unrelated non-ST97 MRSA cases. To contextualize the outbreak, core-genome single-nucleotide variants were identified for phylogenetic analysis after de novo assembly of nanopore data. Comparisons with global (n=45) and national surveillance (n=35) ST97 genomes revealed the stepwise evolution of methicillin resistance within this ST97 subset. A distinct cluster comprising nine of the ten ST97-IVa genomes from the NICU was identified, with strains from 2020 to 2022 national surveillance serving as outgroups to this cluster. One ST97-IVa genome presumed to be part of the outbreak formed an outgroup and was retrospectively excluded. A second phylogeny was created using Illumina sequencing, which considerably reduced the branch lengths of the NICU isolates on the phylogenetic tree. However, the overall tree topology and conclusions were unchanged, with the exception of the NICU outbreak cluster, where differences in branch lengths were observed. This analysis demonstrated the ability of a nanopore-only prospective genomic surveillance system to rapidly identify and contextualize an outbreak of MRSA in a NICU.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    BackgroundQ热是由伯氏柯希菌引起的细菌性人畜共患病。西班牙是欧洲通报人类病例最多的国家。小反刍动物是病原体的关键宿主,从动物到人类的传播通常是通过空气传播的。AimWe旨在探索西班牙四个地区通报病例最多的Q热零星和暴发病例的时空流行病学模式。方法我们提取了加那利群岛Q发热病例的数据,巴斯克地区,西班牙国家流行病学监测网络在2016年至2022年之间的拉里奥哈和纳瓦拉。我们计算了标准化发病率比率(SIR),利用Besag-York-Mollié模型的空间相对风险(sRR)和后验概率(PP)。结果共有1,059份通知,以30-60岁的男性为主。在巴斯克地区,拉里奥哈和纳瓦拉地区,报告了11起疫情,在加那利群岛没有。在3月至6月之间观察到发病率的季节性增加。在加那利群岛,sRR升高见于LaPalma,大加那利岛,兰萨罗特和富埃特文图拉。在巴斯克地区,拉里奥哈和纳瓦拉地区,SRR最高的是在比斯开省南部。结论在文献报道的疫情中,山羊是人类的主要来源。季节性增加可能与小反刍动物的分娩季节和特定的环境条件有关。这些区域内sRR的局部变化可能是由不同的环境因素引起的。未来一项健康导向研究对于加深我们对Q热流行病学的理解至关重要。
    BackgroundQ fever is a bacterial zoonosis caused by Coxiella burnetii. Spain has the highest number of notified human cases in Europe. Small ruminants are a key reservoir for the pathogen, transmission from animals to humans is usually airborne.AimWe aimed at exploring temporal and spatial epidemiological patterns of sporadic and outbreak cases of Q fever in four Spanish regions with the highest number of notified cases.MethodsWe extracted data on Q fever cases in the Canary Islands, Basque Country, La Rioja and Navarre between 2016 and 2022 from the Spanish National Epidemiological Surveillance Network. We calculated standardised incidence ratios (SIR), spatial relative risks (sRR) and posterior probabilities (PP) utilising Besag-York-Mollié models.ResultsThere were 1,059 notifications, with a predominance of males aged 30-60 years. In Basque Country, La Rioja and Navarre area, 11 outbreaks were reported, while no in the Canary Islands. A seasonal increase in incidence rates was observed between March and June. In the Canary Islands, elevated sRR was seen in La Palma, Gran Canaria, Lanzarote and Fuerteventura. In Basque Country, La Rioja and Navarre area, the highest sRR was identified in the south of Biscay province.ConclusionGoats were the main source for humans in outbreaks reported in the literature. Seasonal increase may be related to the parturition season of small ruminants and specific environmental conditions. Local variations in sRR within these regions likely result from diverse environmental factors. Future One Health-oriented studies are essential to deepen our understanding of Q fever epidemiology.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    我们描述了在英国爆发的Ralstoniapickettii,分离株与2023年澳大利亚爆发的与国际分布的盐溶液有关的基因上没有区别。确诊病例(n=3)有菌血症,临床相关感染,留置静脉管路和频繁的医疗保健接触。需要多方利益相关者的干预,包括产品召回和风险沟通。我们建议低阈值来调查Ralstonia物种和类似的机会病原体的集群,考虑受污染的产品来源。有效的缓解需要多机构伙伴关系和国际合作。
    We describe an outbreak of Ralstonia pickettii in the United Kingdom, with isolates genetically indistinguishable from a 2023 Australian outbreak linked to internationally distributed saline solutions. Confirmed cases (n = 3) had bacteraemia, clinically relevant infection, indwelling venous lines and frequent healthcare contact. Multi-stakeholder intervention was required including product recall and risk communications. We recommend a low threshold for investigating clusters of Ralstonia species and similar opportunistic pathogens, considering contaminated product sources. Effective mitigation requires multi-agency partnership and international collaboration.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    在2023年夏季,欧洲地区经历了在2022年大规模爆发后,水痘病例的数量有限。这种增加的特征是异步和双峰增加,国家在不同的时间经历高峰。复苏期间病例的人口统计学特征与以前报告的情况基本一致。来自欧洲区域的所有可用序列都属于IIb进化枝。持续的努力对于控制并最终消除欧洲地区的水痘至关重要。
    During the summer of 2023, the European Region experienced a limited resurgence of mpox cases following the substantial outbreak in 2022. This increase was characterised by asynchronous and bimodal increases, with countries experiencing peaks at different times. The demographic profile of cases during the resurgence was largely consistent with those reported previously. All available sequences from the European Region belonged to clade IIb. Sustained efforts are crucial to control and eventually eliminate mpox in the European Region.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    人类腺病毒(HAdV)感染在感染个体时呈现不同的临床表现,以儿童呼吸道感染为主。我们调查了北海道地区18家医院因呼吸道HAdV感染而导致的儿科住院情况,Japan,从2019年7月到2024年3月,录得473人。虽然从2019年7月到2023年9月,每周住院病例仍低于5例,但2023年10月下旬出现了显著的激增,从11月到12月,每周住院病例达到15-20例的峰值。住院患者的年龄分布发生了巨大变化:2019-2021年,1岁婴儿和3-6岁儿童占51.4%-54.8%和4.1%-13.3%,分别;然而,在2023-2024年,1岁婴儿占19.0%-20.1%,3-6岁儿童的比例增加到46.2%-50.0%。了解呼吸道HAdV感染的重大暴发和住院病例年龄分布的实质性变化,有必要进一步调查北海道地区HAdV的循环类型和儿童针对HAdV的中和抗体滴度的变化。
    Human adenovirus (HAdV) infections present diverse clinical manifestations upon infecting individuals, with respiratory infections predominating in children. We surveyed pediatric hospitalizations due to respiratory HAdV infections across 18 hospitals in Hokkaido Prefecture, Japan, from July 2019 to March 2024, recording 473 admissions. While hospitalizations remained below five cases per week from July 2019 to September 2023, a notable surge occurred in late October 2023, with weekly admissions peaking at 15-20 cases from November to December. There were dramatic shifts in the age distribution of hospitalized patients: during 2019-2021, 1-year-old infants and children aged 3-6 years represented 51.4%-54.8% and 4.1%-13.3%, respectively; however, in 2023-2024, while 1-year-old infants represented 19.0%-20.1%, the proportion of children aged 3-6 years increased to 46.2%-50.0%. Understanding the emergence of significant outbreaks of respiratory HAdV infections and the substantial changes in the age distribution of hospitalized cases necessitates further investigation into the circulating types of HAdV in Hokkaido Prefecture and changes in children\'s neutralizing antibody titers against HAdV.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    背景:Visna-maedi是挪威的一种应报告疾病,消除这种疾病是国家目标。挪威的绵羊进口非常有限,严格的规定适用于小反刍动物在羊群之间和在定义的地理区域内的运动。在过去的50年里发生了几次疫情,2019年之前的最新事件发生在2002年挪威中部的Trøndelag县。自2003年以来,就有一项针对小反刍动物慢病毒感染的国家监测计划。
    结果:2019年,国家监测计划在Trøndelag的绵羊群中检测到小反刍动物慢病毒的血清反应阳性。根据聚合酶链反应分析结果和组织病理学结果,挪威食品安全局对maedi的诊断做出了结论。进一步的调查在同一县的另外八只羊群中发现了maedi。羊群受到限制,当局还对82个接触羊群施加了限制。部分gag基因的测序表明,当前爆发的病毒与2002年至2005年在同一地区检测到的小反刍动物慢病毒有关。
    结论:疫情调查显示需要敏感和特定的诊断方法,以及改进和更有针对性的监控策略。它还证明了疾病通过动物运动在羊群之间传播的风险,并强调了生物安全和结构化牲畜贸易的重要性。除了只允许从有记录的没有maedi的羊群中进行牲畜贸易之外,可能需要监测羊群多年,旨在消除挪威绵羊种群中的maedi。
    BACKGROUND: Visna-maedi is a notifiable disease in Norway, and eliminating the disease is a national goal. The import of sheep into Norway is very limited, and strict regulations apply to the movement of small ruminants between flocks and within defined geographical regions. Several outbreaks have occurred in the last 50 years, and the most recent before 2019 occurred in Trøndelag county in Central Norway in 2002. A national surveillance programme for small ruminant lentivirus infection exists since 2003.
    RESULTS: In 2019, the national surveillance programme detected seropositive animals for small ruminant lentivirus in a sheep flock in Trøndelag. Based on the result of polymerase chain reaction analysis and histopathological findings, the Norwegian Food Safety Authority concluded the diagnosis of maedi. Further investigations detected maedi in eight additional sheep flocks in the same county. The flocks were placed under restrictions, and the authorities also imposed restrictions on 82 contact flocks. Sequencing of partial gag genes indicated that the virus in the current outbreak was related to the small ruminant lentivirus detected in the same area between 2002 and 2005.
    CONCLUSIONS: The outbreak investigation shows the need for sensitive and specific diagnostic methods, and an improved and more targeted surveillance strategy. It also demonstrates the risk of disease spreading between flocks through animal movements, and highlights the importance of biosecurity and structured livestock trade. In addition to allowing livestock trade only from flocks documented free from maedi, it may be necessary to monitor sheep flocks over many years, when aiming to eliminate maedi from the Norwegian sheep population.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    埃博拉病毒病(EVD)自1976年以来一直流行,病死率极高。埃博拉病毒是由受感染的动物传播的,有症状的个体,尸体,和污染的环境。在本文中,我们制定了一个EVD模型,该模型具有四种传输模式和一个描述潜伏期的时间延迟。通过动力学分析,我们验证了阻断感染动物感染源的重要性。我们在不考虑受感染动物的感染源的情况下获得基本繁殖数。And,事实证明,当基本繁殖数小于统一时,该模型具有全球吸引力的无病均衡;当基本繁殖数大于统一时,疾病最终成为地方性疾病。以2014-2016年塞拉利昂EVD疫情为例,我们通过结合介质的效果来获得未知参数来完成数据拟合,基本繁殖数及其时变繁殖数。参数敏感性分析表明,感染组的接触率和清除率对疾病的患病率影响最大。And,获得这两个参数的疾病控制阈值。此外,根据现有的疫苗接种策略,只有高危地区的接种比例大于0.4,有效繁殖数才能小于1。And,疫苗接种时间越早,接种比例越大,疾病控制得越快。
    The Ebola virus disease (EVD) has been endemic since 1976, and the case fatality rate is extremely high. EVD is spread by infected animals, symptomatic individuals, dead bodies, and contaminated environment. In this paper, we formulate an EVD model with four transmission modes and a time delay describing the incubation period. Through dynamical analysis, we verify the importance of blocking the infection source of infected animals. We get the basic reproduction number without considering the infection source of infected animals. And, it is proven that the model has a globally attractive disease-free equilibrium when the basic reproduction number is less than unity; the disease eventually becomes endemic when the basic reproduction number is greater than unity. Taking the EVD epidemic in Sierra Leone in 2014-2016 as an example, we complete the data fitting by combining the effect of the media to obtain the unknown parameters, the basic reproduction number and its time-varying reproduction number. It is shown by parameter sensitivity analysis that the contact rate and the removal rate of infected group have the greatest influence on the prevalence of the disease. And, the disease-controlling thresholds of these two parameters are obtained. In addition, according to the existing vaccination strategy, only the inoculation ratio in high-risk areas is greater than 0.4, the effective reproduction number can be less than unity. And, the earlier the vaccination time, the greater the inoculation ratio, and the faster the disease can be controlled.
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