confidence interval

置信区间
  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    尽管自由漂浮的血栓(FFT)构成中风或短暂性脑缺血发作(TIA)的重大风险,最优管理策略是不确定的。为了确定FFT医疗干预的最新技术,我们对各种医疗干预措施的疗效以及影响FFT分辨率和复发的因素进行了系统评价.全面搜索Embase,PubMed,和ScienceDirect确定了61项研究,包括179名接受抗凝药治疗的FFT相关卒中或TIA患者,抗血小板,或它们的组合。评估的主要结果是卒中复发和血栓消退。统计分析(Fisher精确检验,卡方检验,曼-惠特尼测试,和Kruskal-Wallis检验)利用p<0.05的显著性。平均随访7个月,65%的患者发生血栓消退,而11.2%的人经历了复发,主要是TIA。在已解决的病例中,心脏栓塞的发生率明显较低(p=0.025)。联合治疗(抗血小板,抗凝剂,和他汀类药物)与单一疗法相比,显着提高了凝块分辨率(OR11.4;95%CI1.436-91.91;p=0.021)。溃疡斑块是复发的重要预测因子(OR8.2;95%CI1.02-66.07;p=0.048)。这些发现强调了联合治疗在FFT管理中的优越性,并强调了对溃疡斑块患者进行针对性干预以减轻复发风险的必要性。
    Although free-floating thrombus (FFT) poses a significant risk of stroke or transient ischemic attack (TIA), optimal management strategies are uncertain. To determine the state-of-the-art of medical interventions for FFT, we conducted a systematic review of the efficacy of various medical interventions and factors influencing FFT resolution and recurrence. A comprehensive search of Embase, PubMed, and ScienceDirect identified 61 studies encompassing 179 patients with FFT-related stroke or TIA treated with anticoagulants, antiplatelets, or their combinations. Primary outcomes assessed were stroke recurrence and thrombus resolution. Statistical analyses (Fisher\'s exact test, chi-square test, Mann-Whitney test, and Kruskal-Wallis test) utilized significance set at p < 0.05. Over a median follow-up of 7 months, thrombus resolution occurred in 65% of patients, while 11.2% experienced recurrence, primarily as TIAs. Cardioembolism was significantly less common in resolved cases (p = 0.025). Combination therapy (antiplatelets, anticoagulants, and statins) significantly enhanced clot resolution (OR 11.4; 95% CI 1.436-91.91; p = 0.021) compared to monotherapies. Ulcerated plaque was a significant predictor of recurrence (OR 8.2; 95% CI 1.02-66.07; p = 0.048). These findings underscore the superiority of combination therapy in FFT management and highlight the need for targeted interventions in patients with ulcerated plaques to mitigate recurrence risk.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    在本文中,我们为具有流数据的高维广义线性模型开发了一种在线统计推断方法,用于实时估计和推断。我们提出了一种在线去偏见套索方法,该方法与流数据的数据收集方案保持一致。在线去偏见套索与离线去偏见套索在两个重要方面有所不同。首先,它仅使用历史数据的汇总统计量来更新回归系数的分位数置信区间.第二,在线去偏套索增加了一个额外的术语来纠正在整个在线更新过程中积累的近似误差。我们证明了我们在广义线性模型中提出的在线去偏估计是渐近正态的。该结果为利用流数据进行实时临时统计推断提供了理论依据。进行了大量的数值实验来评估我们提出的在线去偏套索方法的性能。这些实验证明了我们算法的有效性,并支持了理论结果。此外,我们用高维文本数据集说明了我们的方法的应用。
    In this paper we develop an online statistical inference approach for high-dimensional generalized linear models with streaming data for realtime estimation and inference. We propose an online debiased lasso method that aligns with the data collection scheme of streaming data. Online debiased lasso differs from offline debiased lasso in two important aspects. First, it updates component-wise confidence intervals of regression coefficients with only summary statistics of the historical data. Second, online debiased lasso adds an additional term to correct approximation errors accumulated throughout the online updating procedure. We show that our proposed online debiased estimators in generalized linear models are asymptotically normal. This result provides a theoretical basis for carrying out real-time interim statistical inference with streaming data. Extensive numerical experiments are conducted to evaluate the performance of our proposed online debiased lasso method. These experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of our algorithm and support the theoretical results. Furthermore, we illustrate the application of our method with a high-dimensional text dataset.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    极端现象的问题,对其预警的重现期进行更精确的估计,特别是为了保护人口和财产的安全,出现在世界各地。这项工作在估计极端降水的特别是自然风险的返回水平(RL)和返回周期(RP)方面发展了另一个方面。特别是,它给出了返回日期(RD)及其置信间隔(CI)。RPs,还研究了极端降雨的RL及其CI。这些估计是通过在广义帕累托分布(GPD)选择的阈值上接近峰值来进行的。用Delta法测定RP和RL的CI。使用的每日降雨数据是从杜阿拉气象站2011年至2021年天气报告的数据中获得的(更多详细信息可在http://www上找到。ogimet.com/guia.phtml.en).要验证使用的方法,考虑了杜阿拉市发生的洪水的真实案例:例如,当地一家媒体编制了洪水日期,并提到2013年4月16日在这座城市发生了洪水。根据天气报告的数据,相应的降雨量约为150毫米。获得的结果显示了2014年8月12日的RD。Delta法确定的收益水平和收益日期的置信区间分别为[131.66,168.456]和[2014年6月23日,2015年1月2日],分别。这些结果与天气报告的数据一致,因为降雨量为132.2毫米(属于回报水平的置信区间),2014年8月11日(属于返回日期的置信区间)。这些对RD和RL及其CI的预测,在合理的时间尺度上,可以帮助有效地管理洪水,因此,改善人口和货物安全的预警。
    The problem of extreme phenomena with a more precise estimation of their return periods for early warnings, notably to preserve the safety of populations and properties, arises all over the world. This work develops another aspect in the estimation of Return Levels (RLs) and Return Periods (RPs) of extreme precipitation in particular and natural risk in general. In particular, it gives the Return Dates (RDs) with their Confidence Intervals (CIs). The RPs, the RLs and their CIs for extreme rainfall were also investigated. These estimates were made by approaching the peak over a threshold chosen by the Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD). The CIs of RPs and RLs were determined by the Delta method. The daily rainfall data used were obtained from the data of the synoptic report for the period 2011 to 2021 for the Douala weather station (more details can be found on http://www.ogimet.com/guia.phtml.en). To validate the methods used, real cases of floods occurred in Douala city were considered: for example, a local press compiled flood dates and mentioned that a flood occurred on the April 16, 2013 in this city. Following the data of synoptic report, the corresponding amount of rainfall was around 150 mm. The results obtained have shown a RD on the August 12, 2014. The confidence intervals of return levels and return dates determined by the Delta method were [131.66, 168.456] and [June 23, 2014, January 02, 2015], respectively. These results are in agreement with the data of synoptic report since the rainfall amounts was 132.2 mm (belonging to the confidence interval of return levels), on the August 11, 2014 (belonging to the confidence interval of return dates). These predictions of RDs and RLs with their CIs, at reasonable time scales, can help for efficient management of floods and thus, improve early warnings for safety of populations and goods.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    目的:提供有关2022年美国狂犬病分布和发生的全面流行病学信息,加拿大,和墨西哥。
    方法:美国国家狂犬病监测系统从美国州和地区公共卫生部门以及美国农业部野生动物服务部门收集了2022年动物狂犬病数据。进行了时间和地理分析,以评估动物狂犬病病例的趋势。
    结果:在2022年,美国54个司法管辖区报告了3,579例动物狂犬病病例,与2021年报告的3663例相比下降了2.3%。六个州共同报告了>50%的动物狂犬病病例:德克萨斯州(395[11.0%]),弗吉尼亚(337[9.4%]),宾夕法尼亚州(329[9.2%]),纽约(267[7.5%]),北卡罗莱纳州(264[7.4%]),和加利福尼亚州(241[6.7%])。在报告的狂犬病动物病例总数中,3,234(90.4%)归因于野生动植物,蝙蝠(1,218[34.0%]),浣熊(1,014[28.3%]),臭鼬(660[18.4%]),和狐狸(269[7.5%])代表确诊为狂犬病的主要宿主。狂犬病猫(222[6.2%]),牛(42[1.2%]),狗(50[1.4%])占报告的家畜狂犬病病例的90%以上。
    结论:2022年,美国和加拿大提交狂犬病检测的动物样本数量有所增加。在美国检测到灰狐狂犬病病毒变体的显着地理扩展。墨西哥发生了3起因吸血蝙蝠狂犬病感染而导致的人类狂犬病死亡;美国和加拿大均未报告。
    结论:动物狂犬病的实验室诊断对于确保明智地使用人类狂犬病暴露后预防至关重要。
    OBJECTIVE: To provide comprehensive epidemiological information about the distribution and occurrence of rabies during 2022 in the US, Canada, and Mexico.
    METHODS: The US National Rabies Surveillance System collected 2022 animal rabies data from US state and territorial public health departments and USDA Wildlife Services. Temporal and geographic analyses were conducted to evaluate trends in animal rabies cases.
    RESULTS: During 2022, 54 US jurisdictions reported 3,579 animal rabies cases, reflecting a 2.3% decline from 3,663 cases reported in 2021. Six states collectively reported > 50% of animal rabies cases: Texas (395 [11.0%]), Virginia (337 [9.4%]), Pennsylvania (329 [9.2%]), New York (267 [7.5%]), North Carolina (264 [7.4%]), and California (241 [6.7%]). Out of the total reported rabies animal cases, 3,234 (90.4%) were attributed to wildlife, with bats (1,218 [34.0%]), raccoons (1,014 [28.3%]), skunks (660 [18.4%]), and foxes (269 [7.5%]) representing the primary hosts confirmed with rabies. Rabid cats (222 [6.2%]), cattle (42 [1.2%]), and dogs (50 [1.4%]) constituted > 90% of reported domestic animal rabies cases.
    CONCLUSIONS: In 2022, there was an increase in the number of animal samples submitted for rabies testing in the US and Canada. A notable geographic expansion of gray fox rabies virus variant was detected in the US. Three human rabies deaths due to vampire bat rabies infection occurred in Mexico; none were reported from the US and Canada.
    CONCLUSIONS: Laboratory diagnosis of rabies in animals is critical to ensure judicious use of human rabies postexposure prophylaxis.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    白粉病(PM),由Blumeriagraminisf.sp.Tritici,对小麦生产构成重大威胁,有必要开发具有遗传抗性的品种以进行长期控制。因此,探索小麦中PM的遗传结构以揭示重要的基因组区域是小麦研究的重要领域。近年来,元QTL(MQTL)分析的利用已成为揭示复杂数量性状基础的复杂遗传结构的重要工具。这项研究的目的是进行QTL荟萃分析,以查明小麦中负责控制PM抗性的特定基因组区域。本研究使用具有54,672个标记的共识图,整合了来自33个基于连锁的研究的222个QTL。分析显示39个MQTL,细化为9个高置信度MQTL(hcMQTL),置信区间为0.49至12.94cM。MQTL的平均物理间隔为41.00Mb,每个MQTL的范围从0.000048Mb到380.71Mb。重要的是,18个MQTLs与已知的抗性基因如Pm2、Pm3、Pm8、Pm21、Pm38和Pm41共定位。该研究确定了hcMQTL中的256个基因模型,为标记辅助育种和基因组预测程序提供潜在的靶标,以增强PM抗性。这些MQTL将作为精细映射的基础,基因分离,和功能基因组学研究,促进对分子机制的更深入理解。候选基因的鉴定为验证后抗PM小麦品种的开发开辟了令人兴奋的可能性。
    Powdery mildew (PM), caused by Blumeria graminis f. sp. tritici, poses a significant threat to wheat production, necessitating the development of genetically resistant varieties for long-term control. Therefore, exploring genetic architecture of PM in wheat to uncover important genomic regions is an important area of wheat research. In recent years, the utilization of meta-QTL (MQTL) analysis has gained prominence as an essential tool for unraveling the complex genetic architecture underlying complex quantitative traits. The aim of this research was to conduct a QTL meta-analysis to pinpoint the specific genomic regions in wheat responsible for governing PM resistance. This study integrated 222 QTLs from 33 linkage-based studies using a consensus map with 54,672 markers. The analysis revealed 39 MQTLs, refined to 9 high-confidence MQTLs (hcMQTLs) with confidence intervals of 0.49 to 12.94 cM. The MQTLs had an average physical interval of 41.00 Mb, ranging from 0.000048 Mb to 380.71 Mb per MQTL. Importantly, 18 MQTLs co-localized with known resistance genes like Pm2, Pm3, Pm8, Pm21, Pm38, and Pm41. The study identified 256 gene models within hcMQTLs, providing potential targets for marker-assisted breeding and genomic prediction programs to enhance PM resistance. These MQTLs would serve as a foundation for fine mapping, gene isolation, and functional genomics studies, facilitating a deeper understanding of molecular mechanisms. The identification of candidate genes opens up exciting possibilities for the development of PM-resistant wheat varieties after validation.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    介绍下颌骨构成颅骨最大和最强壮的骨骼之一。生长突增会影响它,它具有多种双态特征,可用于识别性别。除了观察,比较,并使用数字正骨图(OPG)评估下颌支弯曲和双骨宽度区分性别的潜力,进行了一项回顾性研究,以检查这种方法在印度人口中进行性别估计的有效性。目的和目的本研究旨在通过分析两个下颌参数来量化性二态性,ramus弯曲和双峰宽度,使用正像断层扫描(OPG)。目的是使用支弯曲和双峰宽度确定性别确定的准确性。材料和方法使用Planmeca软件(赫尔辛基,芬兰)。支弯曲的测量是指下颌下缘的切线与支后缘的切线之间形成的角度。双峰宽度测量为左右角点之间的距离。进行统计分析以评估性二态性,并使用这些参数确定性别确定的准确性。这项研究采用了描述性统计数据,如均值和标准差,和独立的t检验,以确定与男性和女性有关的特征的重要性。结果女性的平均双亲宽度为193.3068mm(SD=13.51669mm),男性为217.6308mm(SD=10.87453mm),差异有统计学意义(p=0.000)。男性和女性之间双亲宽度差异的95%置信区间在-49.97173毫米和-43.93787毫米之间。对于拉马斯弯曲,男性和女性的平均值均为0.0000(SD=0.00000),男性和女性之间存在显着差异(p=0.003)。男性和女性之间的支弯曲差异的95%置信区间在-0.59543和-0.12457之间。结论结果表明,支弯曲和双宽度均具有明显的性别二态性。这项研究表明,支弯曲和双峰宽度,使用正像断层扫描(OPG)测量,表现出明显的性二态性。对这些下颌参数的分析为法医和人类学背景下的性别确定提供了有价值的信息。
    Introduction The mandible constitutes one of the skull\'s largest and strongest bones. Growth spurts can influence it, and it has a variety of dimorphic traits that can be used to identify sex. In addition to observing, comparing, and evaluating the potential for mandibular ramus flexure and bigonial breadth to discriminate between sexes using digital orthopantomograms (OPG), a retrospective study was conducted to examine the validity of this method for sex estimation in the Indian population. Aim and objective This study aims to quantify sexual dimorphism by analyzing two mandibular parameters, the ramus flexure and the bigonial width, using orthopantomography (OPG). The objective is to determine the accuracy of sex determination using the ramus flexure and bigonial width. Materials and methods A total of 500 OPG images (250 males and 250 females) were analyzed using the Planmeca software (Helsinki, Finland). The ramus flexure was measured as the angle formed between the tangent to the inferior border of the mandible and the tangent to the posterior border of the ramus. The bigonial width was measured as the distance between the left and right gonion points. A statistical analysis was performed to assess sexual dimorphism and determine the accuracy of sex determination using these parameters. The study employed descriptive statistics, such as means and standard deviations, and an independent t-test to determine the significance of the characteristics in relation to males and females. Results The mean bigonial width for females was 193.3068 mm (SD = 13.51669 mm) and for males was 217.6308 mm (SD = 10.87453 mm), with a statistically significant difference (p = 0.000). The 95% confidence interval for the difference in the bigonial width between males and females was between -49.97173 mm and -43.93787 mm. For the ramus flexure, the mean was 0.0000 for both males and females (SD = 0.00000), with a significant difference between males and females (p = 0.003). The 95% confidence interval for the difference in the ramus flexure between males and females was between -0.59543 and -0.12457. Conclusion The results indicated significant sexual dimorphism in both the ramus flexure and bigonial width. This study demonstrated that the ramus flexure and bigonial width, measured using orthopantomography (OPG), exhibited significant sexual dimorphism. The analysis of these mandibular parameters provided valuable information for sex determination in forensic and anthropological contexts.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    我们介绍并研究了与高维均值向量变化的顺序检测相关的两个新的推理挑战。首先,我们寻求变化点的置信区间,第二,我们估计平均值变化的坐标指数集。我们提出了一种在线算法,该算法产生具有保证标称覆盖范围的间隔,它的长度是,很有可能,与平均检测延迟相同的顺序,达到对数因子。相应的支持估计可以控制假阴性和假阳性。模拟证实了我们方法的有效性,我们还说明了其对2017年至2020年美国超额死亡数据的适用性。补充材料,其中包含了我们理论结果的证明,可在线获得。
    We introduce and study two new inferential challenges associated with the sequential detection of change in a high-dimensional mean vector. First, we seek a confidence interval for the changepoint, and second, we estimate the set of indices of coordinates in which the mean changes. We propose an online algorithm that produces an interval with guaranteed nominal coverage, and whose length is, with high probability, of the same order as the average detection delay, up to a logarithmic factor. The corresponding support estimate enjoys control of both false negatives and false positives. Simulations confirm the effectiveness of our methodology, and we also illustrate its applicability on the U.S. excess deaths data from 2017 to 2020. The supplementary material, which contains the proofs of our theoretical results, is available online.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    在实践中,我们经常遇到二元分类问题,其中两个主类都由多个子类组成。例如,在一项卵巢癌研究中,评估了生物标志物区分非癌症病例和癌症病例的准确性,非癌症类包括健康受试者和良性病例,而癌症类别由早期和晚期的受试者组成。本文旨在为这种设置提供大量的最佳切点选择方法。此外,我们还研究了最佳切点的置信区间估计。进行了仿真研究,以探索所提出的切点选择方法以及置信区间估计方法的性能。使用所提出的方法分析了真实的卵巢癌数据集。
    In practice, we often encounter binary classification problems where both main classes consist of multiple subclasses. For example, in an ovarian cancer study where biomarkers were evaluated for their accuracy of distinguishing noncancer cases from cancer cases, the noncancer class consists of healthy subjects and benign cases, while the cancer class consists of subjects at both early and late stages. This article aims to provide a large number of optimal cut-point selection methods for such setting. Furthermore, we also study confidence interval estimation of the optimal cut-points. Simulation studies are carried out to explore the performance of the proposed cut-point selection methods as well as confidence interval estimation methods. A real ovarian cancer data set is analyzed using the proposed methods.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    在任何荟萃分析中,重要的是不仅要报告平均效应大小,还要报告效应大小在不同研究中的变化。在所有研究中具有中等临床影响的治疗与平均影响中等的治疗非常不同,但在一些研究是大的,在其他是微不足道的(甚至有害)。在任何研究中都没有影响的治疗方法与平均没有影响的治疗方法非常不同,因为它在某些研究中很有帮助,但在其他研究中却有害。大多数荟萃分析使用I平方指数来量化异质性。虽然这种做法是常见的,但它是不正确的。I-squared并没有告诉我们效果大小有多大的变化(除非I-squared是0%)。传达此信息的统计量是预测间隔。它允许我们报告,例如,在大约10%的研究中,治疗具有临床上微不足道或中等的效果,大约50%的影响很大,大约40%的影响非常大。这是研究人员或临床医生在询问异质性时想到的信息。这是研究人员认为(错误地)由I平方提供的信息。
    In any meta-analysis it is important to report not only the mean effect size but also how the effect size varies across studies. A treatment that has a moderate clinical impact in all studies is very different than a treatment where the impact is moderate on average, but in some studies is large and in others is trivial (or even harmful). A treatment that has no impact in any studies is very different than a treatment that has no impact on average because it is helpful in some studies but harmful in others. The majority of meta-analyses use the I-squared index to quantify heterogeneity. While this practice is common it is nevertheless incorrect. I-squared does not tell us how much the effect size varies (except when I-squared is zero percent). The statistic that does convey this information is the prediction interval. It allows us to report, for example, that a treatment has a clinically trivial or moderate effect in roughly 10 % of studies, a large effect in roughly 50 %, and a very large effect in roughly 40 %. This is the information that researchers or clinicians have in mind when they ask about heterogeneity. It is the information that researchers believe (incorrectly) is provided by I-squared.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    正和负似然比(PLR和NLR)是具有二进制输出的诊断设备的重要准确性指标。然而,PLR/NLR的贝叶斯和频率区间估计的性质尚未得到广泛的研究和比较。在这项研究中,我们探索了贝叶斯方法在PLR/NLR区间估计中的潜在用途,and,更广泛地说,用于两个独立比例的比率的区间估计。
    我们开发了一种基于贝叶斯的PLR/NLR区间估计方法,用作诊断设备性能评估的一部分。我们的方法适用于更广泛的设置,用于对两个独立比例的任何比率进行区间估计。我们通过广泛的实验和应用于两个案例研究,根据覆盖概率(CP)和预期间隔宽度(EW)比较了两个比例的分数和贝叶斯间隔估计。还进行了补充实验,以评估所提出的精确贝叶斯方法在不同先验下的性能。
    我们的实验结果表明,贝叶斯区间估计的总体均值CP与评分法一致(0.950vs.0.952),贝叶斯的总体平均EW短于评分法(15.929vs.19.724)。对两个案例研究的应用表明,使用贝叶斯和频率论方法估计的间隔非常相似。
    我们的数值结果表明,所提出的贝叶斯方法具有与得分方法相当的CP性能,同时产生更高的精度(即EW更短)。
    UNASSIGNED: Positive and negative likelihood ratios (PLR and NLR) are important metrics of accuracy for diagnostic devices with a binary output. However, the properties of Bayesian and frequentist interval estimators of PLR/NLR have not been extensively studied and compared. In this study, we explore the potential use of the Bayesian method for interval estimation of PLR/NLR, and, more broadly, for interval estimation of the ratio of two independent proportions.
    UNASSIGNED: We develop a Bayesian-based approach for interval estimation of PLR/NLR for use as a part of a diagnostic device performance evaluation. Our approach is applicable to a broader setting for interval estimation of any ratio of two independent proportions. We compare score and Bayesian interval estimators for the ratio of two proportions in terms of the coverage probability (CP) and expected interval width (EW) via extensive experiments and applications to two case studies. A supplementary experiment was also conducted to assess the performance of the proposed exact Bayesian method under different priors.
    UNASSIGNED: Our experimental results show that the overall mean CP for Bayesian interval estimation is consistent with that for the score method (0.950 vs. 0.952), and the overall mean EW for Bayesian is shorter than that for score method (15.929 vs. 19.724). Application to two case studies showed that the intervals estimated using the Bayesian and frequentist approaches are very similar.
    UNASSIGNED: Our numerical results indicate that the proposed Bayesian approach has a comparable CP performance with the score method while yielding higher precision (i.e. a shorter EW).
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