影像组学和机器学习已广泛用于泌尿系结石领域,特别是在预测结石治疗结果方面。这项研究的目的是整合临床变量和影像学特征,以开发一种机器学习模型,用于预测经皮肾镜取石术(PCNL)后的结石发生率(SFR)。对在南昌大学第二附属医院接受PCNL手术的212例符合条件的患者进行回顾性分析。收集所有患者的术前临床变量和非增强CT图像,并在描绘结石ROI后提取影像组学特征。进行单因素分析以确定临床变量与PCNL术后结石清除率密切相关。并利用最小绝对收缩和选择算子算法(套索回归)来筛选放射学特征。四种有监督的机器学习算法,包括Logistic回归,随机森林(RF),极端梯度提升(XGBoost),和梯度提升决策树(GBDT),被雇用。将具有强相关性的临床变量和筛选的影像组学特征整合到4种机器学习算法中构建预测模型,并绘制了受试者工作曲线。接收器工作曲线下的面积(AUC),准确率,特异性,等。,用于评估四个模型的预测性能。在分析术后统计数据后,术后结石发生率为70.3%(n=149)。在检查的各种临床变量中,因素,如石头数量,石头直径,结石CT值,石头位置,和结石手术史,被确定为与PCNL后无结石率相关的统计学意义。总共提取了121个放射学特征,通过套索回归,确定了与PCNL后无结石率最密切相关的7个特征。不同模型的预测精度(Logistic回归,射频,XGBoost,和GBDT)用于确定PCNL评估后的无结石率,产量准确率为78.1%,76.6%,75.0%,73.4%,分别。曲线下面积AUC(95CI)为0.85(0.83-0.89),0.81(0.76-0.85),0.82(0.78-0.85),和0.77(0.73-0.81),将这些模型定位在逻辑回归预测中表现最好的模型中。就预测重要性得分而言,Logistic回归模型确定的关键因素是结石数量,区域百分比,石头直径,和表面积。同样,RF模型突出了石头的数量,结石CT值,石头直径,和表面积作为最高预测因子。在四种机器学习模型中,logistic回归模型在预测PCNL术后结石脱石率方面表现出最高的准确性和辨别能力。与XGBoost和GBDT相比,RF还表现出优越的准确性和必定水平的辨别能力。然而,基于所有四个模型的性能,logistic回归更有可能通过协助临床医生诊断患者的PCNL来帮助临床决策。这使我们能够有效地预测术后残余结石的存在,并最终选择适合PCNL的患者。
Radiomics and machine learning have been extensively utilized in the realm of urinary stones, particularly in forecasting stone treatment outcomes. The objective of this study was to integrate clinical variables and radiomic features to develop a machine learning model for predicting the stone-free rate (SFR) following percutaneous nephrolithotomy (PCNL). A total of 212 eligible patients who underwent PCNL surgery at the Second Affiliated Hospital of Nanchang University were included in a retrospective analysis. Preoperative clinical variables and non-contrast-enhanced CT images of all patients were collected, and radiomic features were extracted after delineating the stone ROI. Univariate analysis was conducted to identify clinical variables strongly correlated with the stone-free rate after PCNL, and the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator algorithm (lasso regression) was utilized to screen radiomic features. Four supervised machine learning algorithms, including Logistic Regression, Random Forest (RF), Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), and Gradient Boosting Decision Tree (GBDT), were employed. The clinical variables with strong correlation and screened radiomic features were integrated into the four machine learning algorithms to construct a prediction model, and the receiver operating curve was plotted. The area under the receiver operating curve (AUC), the accuracy rate, the specificity, etc., were used to evaluate the predictive performance of the four models. After analyzing postoperative statistics, the stone-free rate following the procedure was found to be 70.3% (n = 149). Among the various clinical variables examined, factors, such as stone number, stone diameter, stone CT value, stone location, and history of stone surgery, were identified as statistically significant in relation to the stone-free rate after PCNL. A total of 121 radiomic features were extracted, and through lasso regression, 7 features most closely associated with the stone-free rate post-PCNL were identified. The predictive accuracy of different models (Logistic Regression, RF, XGBoost, and GBDT) for determining the stone-free rate after PCNL was evaluated, yielding accuracies of 78.1%, 76.6%, 75.0%, and 73.4%, respectively. The corresponding area under the curve AUC (95%CI) were 0.85 (0.83-0.89), 0.81 (0.76-0.85), 0.82 (0.78-0.85), and 0.77 (0.73-0.81), positioning these models among the top performers in logistic regression prediction. In terms of predictive importance scores, the key factors identified by the logistic regression model were number of stone, zone percentage, stone diameter, and surface area. Similarly, the RF model highlighted number of stone, stone CT value, stone diameter, and surface area as the top predictors. Among the four machine learning models, the logistic regression model demonstrated the highest accuracy and discrimination ability in predicting the stone-free rate following PCNL. In comparison to XGBoost and GBDT, RF also exhibited superior accuracy and a certain level of discrimination ability. However, based on the performance of all four models, logistic regression is more likely to aid in clinical decision-making by assisting clinicians in diagnosing PCNL in patients. This enables us to effectively predict the presence of residual stones post-surgery and ultimately select patients who are suitable candidates for PCNL.