clinical decision rules

临床决策规则
  • 文章类型: Journal Article
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    体外中毒治疗(EXTRIP)工作组建议在满足特定标准的情况下进行严重锂中毒的血液透析。一个标准是在最佳管理下获得锂浓度<1.0mEq/L的预期时间是否>36小时。缺乏关于哪些患者特征与患者达到锂浓度<1.0mEq/L的速率相关的数据。
    我们对医院电子病历进行了回顾性分析。纳入标准包括住院期间锂浓度>1.2mEq/L。我们排除了从初始锂浓度>1.2mEq/L开始36小时之前接受体外治疗的患者。主要分析包括Cox回归,次要分析评估了Buckley及其同事描述的列线图方法,用于预测延长的超治疗性锂浓度。
    研究中纳入了100名患者。达到锂浓度<1.0mEq/L的中值时间为42.5h(IQR:33.8-51.1)。老年患者,服用噻嗪类药物的患者,血管紧张素转换酶抑制剂或血管紧张素受体阻滞剂,初始锂浓度较高的患者,钠浓度较高的患者以较慢的速率实现锂浓度<1mEq/L。对于列线图分析,敏感性(61.5%)和特异性(54.5%)中等,阳性预测值(16.7%)较差,阴性预测值(90.6%)优异。
    我们的初步分析结果表明,确定更高的血清钠浓度和使用某些降低肾小球滤过率的抗高血压药物作为达到治疗性锂浓度的时间增加的预测因子,可能有助于识别符合血液透析中毒体外治疗标准的患者。列线图方法与先前的验证研究类似地进行。
    在这篇关于超治疗性锂浓度患者的回顾性图表综述中,我们确定了超治疗锂浓度延长的几个危险因素.
    UNASSIGNED: The Extracorporeal Treatments in Poisoning (EXTRIP) workgroup suggests hemodialysis in severe lithium poisoning if specific criteria are met. One criterion is if the expected time to obtain a lithium concentration <1.0 mEq/L with optimal management is >36 h. There are a lack of data regarding which patient characteristics are associated with the rate at which patients achieve a lithium concentration <1.0 mEq/L.
    UNASSIGNED: We conducted a retrospective chart review analyzing hospital electronic medical records. Inclusion criteria consisted of a lithium concentration >1.2 mEq/L during hospitalization. We excluded patients who received extracorporeal treatment before 36 h elapsed from time of initial lithium concentration >1.2 mEq/L. The primary analysis consisted of a Cox regression and a secondary analysis evaluated the nomogram method described by Buckley and colleagues for predicting prolonged supratherapeutic lithium concentration.
    UNASSIGNED: One hundred and one patients were included in the study. The median time to reach a lithium concentration <1.0 mEq/L was 42.5 h (IQR: 33.8-51.1). Older patients, patients taking a thiazide, angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor or angiotensin receptor blocker, patients with a higher initial lithium concentration, and patients with higher sodium concentrations achieved a lithium concentration <1 mEq/L at a slower rate. For the nomogram analysis, sensitivity (61.5%) and specificity (54.5%) were moderate, the positive predictive value (16.7%) was poor, and the negative predictive value (90.6%) was excellent.
    UNASSIGNED: The results from our primary analysis suggest that identifying higher serum sodium concentration and use of certain antihypertensives that decrease glomerular filtration rate as predictors of an increased time to reach a therapeutic lithium concentration may help identify patients who meet the Extracorporeal Treatments in Poisoning criteria for hemodialysis. The nomogram method performed similarly to prior validation studies.
    UNASSIGNED: In this retrospective chart review of patients with supratherapeutic lithium concentrations, we identified several risk factors for prolonged supratherapeutic lithium concentrations.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    目的:目前尚无关于椎体压缩性骨折(VCFs)患者步行独立性相关因素或临床预测规则(CPRs)的报告。关于流行病学步行独立率的证据也很少。这里,我们试图(I)获得关于VCF患者实现步行独立性的概率的流行病学数据,和(ii)开发和验证CPR,以确定住院VCFs患者的步行独立性。
    方法:我们对2019-2022年在日本四家医院因VCF住院的≥60岁患者进行了回顾性横断面观察研究。结果是出院时独立行走。我们进行了二项逻辑回归分析,以评估步行独立性的预测因素。输入了五个自变量:年龄,美国麻醉医师协会的身体状况,认知功能,伯格平衡量表(BBS),和10米步行测试。在显著的自变量中,我们通过计算截止值将连续变量转换为二进制数据,然后创建CPR.计算曲线下面积(AUC)作为CPR诊断准确性的量度,内部验证通过自举进行。
    结果:在240名患者中,188(78.3%)实现了步行独立性。认知功能和BBS评分(截止值45分)被确定为重要的预测因子。我们使用这两个项目(0-2分)创建了CPR。CPR的AUC为0.92(0.874-0.967),通过自举进行内部验证的平均AUC为0.919,斜率为0.965.
    结论:VCF患者住院期间的步行独立率为78.3%,认知功能和BBS是预测因子。开发的CPR表现良好,足以回顾性预测VCF患者的步行独立性。BBS截断值和CPR可作为临床医生预测VCF患者行走独立性的有用指标。
    OBJECTIVE: No reports on factors or Clinical prediction rules (CPRs) associated with walking independence among patients with vertebral compression fractures (VCFs) are available. Evidence regarding epidemiological walking independence rates is also sparse. Here, we sought to (i) obtain epidemiological data on the probability of inpatients with VCFs achieving walking independence, and (ii) develop and validate a CPR to determine walking independence in hospitalized patients with VCFs.
    METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cross-sectional observational study of patients aged ≥60 years who were hospitalized for VCF at four hospitals in Japan in 2019-2022. The outcome was walking independence at discharge. We performed a binomial logistic regression analysis to assess predictors of walking independence. Five independent variables were entered: age, American Society of Anesthesiologists physical status, cognitive function, Berg Balance Scale (BBS), and 10-m walking test. Among the independent variables that were significant, we converted the continuous variables to binary data by calculating cut-off values and then created the CPR. The area under the curve (AUC) was calculated as the measure of the CPR\'s diagnostic accuracy, and internal validation was conducted by bootstrapping.
    RESULTS: Of the 240 patients, 188 (78.3%) achieved walking independence. Cognitive function and the BBS score (with a cut-off of 45 points) were identified as significant predictors. We created a CPR using these two items (0-2 points). The CPR\'s AUC was 0.92 (0.874-0.967), and internal validation by bootstrapping yielded a mean AUC of 0.919 with a slope of 0.965.
    CONCLUSIONS: The walking independence rate of patients with a VCF during hospitalization was 78.3%, with cognitive function and BBS being predictors. The developed CPR performed well enough to retrospectively predict walking independence in VCF patients. The BBS cut-off value and the CPR may serve as useful indicators for clinicians to predict VCF patients\' walking independence.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    背景:淋巴结肿大在儿童中很常见,90%的生理上可触及的淋巴结。本研究旨在建立基于临床特征的预测模型,以增强小儿淋巴结病的诊断并提供对活检结果的见解。
    方法:使用回顾性方法制定了临床预测规则,2012年至2022年接受淋巴结活检的15岁以下患者的横断面设计.多变量风险回归分析良性和恶性病变,通过风险差异和每个组的AUROC呈现结果。在逻辑回归方程中应用预测概率将患者淋巴结病分类为反应性增生,良性,或恶性。
    结果:在188名儿童中,70例(37.2%)有反应性增生以外的良性淋巴结病,和27(14.4%)有恶性淋巴结病。预测模型包括12个特征,如大小,location,持续时间,相关症状,和淋巴结检查。良性病例的预测准确率为92.2%(AUROC=0.92;95%CI0.87-0.96),恶性肿瘤的预测准确率为98.6%(AUROC=0.98;95%CI0.94-0.99)。预测良性和恶性肿瘤的总体准确性为68.3%。
    结论:该模型显示了对小儿淋巴结病临床特征的合理准确预测。它倾向于高估恶性肿瘤,但没有错过诊断,有助于减少良性病例不必要的淋巴结活检。
    BACKGROUND: Lymph node enlargement is common in children, with 90% of physiologically palpable lymph nodes. This study aimed to develop a predictive model based on clinical characteristics to enhance the diagnosis of pediatric lymphadenopathy and provide insights into biopsy outcomes.
    METHODS: A clinical prediction rule was developed using a retrospective, cross-sectional design for patients under 15 years who underwent lymph node biopsy from 2012 to 2022. Multivariable risk regression was used to analyze benign and malignant lesions, presenting results through risk difference and AUROC for each group. Predicted probabilities were applied in a logistic regression equation to classify patients\' lymphadenopathy as reactive hyperplasia, benign, or malignant.
    RESULTS: Of 188 children, 70 (37.2%) had benign lymphadenopathy beyond reactive hyperplasia, and 27 (14.4%) had malignant lymphadenopathy. The predictive model included 12 characteristics such as size, location, duration, associated symptoms, and lymph node examination. Predictive accuracy was 92.2% for benign cases (AUROC = 0.92; 95% CI 0.87-0.96) and 98.6% for malignancy (AUROC = 0.98; 95% CI 0.94-0.99). Overall accuracy for predicting both benign and malignant tumors was 68.3%.
    CONCLUSIONS: The model demonstrated reasonably accurate predictions for the clinical characteristics of pediatric lymphadenopathy. It tended to overestimate malignancy but did not miss diagnoses, aiding in reducing unnecessary lymph node biopsies in benign cases.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    背景:尽管患有肩部不适的患者经常接受物理治疗,预后的推定预测因素仍不清楚.在这方面,肩峰下疼痛综合征患者的科学数据有限,结果不一致。对基线变量预测结果的能力的改进知识可以帮助患者做出明智的治疗决定。防止他们接受无效的治疗,并将发展为慢性疼痛的风险降至最低。
    目的:二次纵向分析的目的有三方面:第一,调查有和没有成功的长期治疗结果的患者之间的基线差异。第二,为了比较两组推定的预测变量对结果的预测能力,一个基于文献,一个基于原始试验的数据。第三,探讨短期随访数据对预测模型的贡献。
    方法:计算应答者和非应答者之间的差异。分析了通过文献定义的变量和基于Akaike信息标准(AIC)的变量的预测能力,这些变量来自原始试验数据集的肩痛和残疾指数以及一年随访时患者的总体变化印象。为了测试结果的稳健性,使用不同的统计模型。为了研究后续数据对预测的贡献,短期数据纳入分析.
    结果:分析了87例肩峰下疼痛综合征患者的样本。这些参与者中有77%(n=67)被归类为应答者。较高的预期和短期变化分数为正,和更高的恐惧回避信念,较高的基线残疾和疼痛水平是肩峰下疼痛综合征患者长期结局的阴性预测因子.
    结论:尽管我们的结果与先前的研究一致,并支持使用临床因素进行预测,我们的研究结果表明心理因素,尤其是病人的期望和避免恐惧的信念,也有助于长期结局,因此应在临床和进一步研究中加以考虑.然而,从我们的研究结果中产生的假设和建议需要在进一步的研究中得到证实,因为它们具有探索性.
    背景:原始试验于2010年3月17日在当前对照试验中注册,试验注册号为ISRCTN86900354。
    BACKGROUND: Although patients with shoulder complaints are frequently referred to physiotherapy, putative predictive factors for outcomes are still unclear. In this regard, only a limited amount of scientific data for patients with subacromial pain syndrome exist, with inconsistent results. An improved knowledge about the ability of baseline variables to predict outcomes could help patients make informed treatment decisions, prevent them from receiving ineffective treatments, and minimize the risk of developing chronic pain.
    OBJECTIVE: The aims of this secondary longitudinal analysis are threefold: First, to investigate baseline differences between patients with and without successful long-term outcomes following physiotherapy. Second, to compare the predictive ability of two sets of putative predictive variables on outcomes, one based on the literature and one based on the data of the original trial. Third, to explore the contribution of short-term follow-up data to predictive models.
    METHODS: Differences between responders and nonresponders were calculated. The predictive ability of variables defined through literature and of variables based on the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) from the original trial dataset on the Shoulder Pain and Disability Index and the Patients\' Global Impression of Change at the one-year follow-up were analyzed. To test the robustness of the results, different statistical models were used. To investigate the contribution of follow-up data to prediction, short-term data were included in the analyses.
    RESULTS: A sample of 87 patients with subacromial pain syndrome was analyzed. 77% (n = 67) of these participants were classified as responders. Higher expectations and short-term change scores were positive, and higher fear avoidance beliefs, greater baseline disability and pain levels were negative predictors of long-term outcomes in patients with subacromial pain syndrome.
    CONCLUSIONS: Although our results are in line with previous research and support the use of clinical factors for prediction, our findings suggest that psychological factors, especially patient expectations and fear avoidance beliefs, also contribute to long-term outcomes and should therefore be considered in the clinical context and further research. However, the hypotheses and recommendations generated from our results need to be confirmed in further studies due to their explorative nature.
    BACKGROUND: The original trial was registered at Current Controlled Trials under the trial registration number ISRCTN86900354 on March 17, 2010.
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    文章类型: English Abstract
    目的:评估前列腺影像学报告和数据系统(PI-RADS)中最大病变直径15mm的合理性,作为将病变从4类升级到5类的标准,并对其进行改进以增强对有临床意义的前列腺癌(csPCa)的预测。
    方法:在本研究中,2019年至2022年在北京大学第一医院接受前列腺磁共振成像(MRI)和前列腺活检的患者作为发展队列,并对2023年的患者作为验证队列进行了审查。充分评估病变的定位和最大直径。从受试者工作特征(ROC)曲线计算曲线下面积(AUC)和病灶最大直径的临界值,以预测csPCa的检测。通过倾向评分匹配(PSM)减少了混杂因素。在验证队列中比较诊断效能。
    结果:在发展队列中的589名患者中,358(60.8%)个病灶位于外周区,231(39.2%)个病灶位于过渡区,496例(84.2%)患者检测到csPCa。外周区病灶的中值直径小于过渡区(14mmvs.19毫米,P<0.001)。在CSPCa预测的最大直径的ROC分析中,周边区(AUC=0.709)和过渡区(AUC=0.673,P=0.585)差异无统计学意义,并且计算出外围区的截断值为11.5mm,迁移区的截断值为16.5mm。通过计算验证队列中截止值的Youden指数,我们发现,按病变位置进行分类可获得更好的预测结果.最后,净重新分类指数(NRI)为0.170。
    结论:15mm作为将PI-RADS评分从4提高到5的标准是合理的,但过于笼统。外围区病变的临界值小于过渡区的临界值。将来可以考虑为不同位置的病变设置单独的截止值。
    OBJECTIVE: To assess the rationality of the maximum lesion diameter of 15 mm in prostate imaging reporting and data system (PI-RADS) as a criterion for upgrading a lesion from category 4 to 5 and improve it to enhance the prediction of clinically significant prostate cancer (csPCa).
    METHODS: In this study, the patients who underwent prostate magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and prostate biopsy at Peking University First Hospital from 2019 to 2022 as a development cohort, and the patients in 2023 as a validation cohort were reviewed. The localization and maximum diameter of the lesion were fully evaluated. The area under the curve (AUC) and the cut-off value of the maximum diameter of the lesion to predict the detection of csPCa were calculated from the receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve. Confounding factors were reduced by propensity score matching (PSM). Diagnostic efficacy was compared in the validation cohort.
    RESULTS: Of the 589 patients in the development cohort, 358 (60.8%) lesions were located in the peripheral zone and 231 (39.2%) were located in the transition zone, and 496 (84.2%) patients detected csPCa. The median diameter of the lesions in the peripheral zone was smaller than that in the transition zone (14 mm vs. 19 mm, P < 0.001). In the ROC analysis of the maximal diameter on the csPCa prediction, there was no statistically significant difference between the peri-pheral zone (AUC=0.709) and the transition zone (AUC=0.673, P=0.585), and the cut-off values were calculated to be 11.5 mm for the peripheral zone and 16.5 mm for the migrating zone. By calcula-ting the Youden index for the cut-off values in the validation cohort, we found that the categorisation by lesion location led to better predictive results. Finally, the net reclassification index (NRI) was 0.170.
    CONCLUSIONS: 15 mm as a criterion for upgrading the PI-RADS score from 4 to 5 is reasonable but too general. The cut-off value for peripheral zone lesions is smaller than that in transitional zone. In the future consideration could be given to setting separate cut-off values for lesions in different locations.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    该研究解决了使用人工智能模型检测年轻人焦虑症状的问题。使用患者健康问卷-9(PHQ-9)和广泛性焦虑症7项量表(GAD-7)等问卷收集数据,专注于早期发现焦虑。采用了三种机器学习模型:支持向量机(SVM)、K近邻(KNN),和随机森林(RF),进行交叉验证以评估其有效性。结果表明,射频模型是最有效的,准确率为91%,超越以往的研究。确定了焦虑的重要预测因素,比如父母的教育水平,酒精消费,和社会保障隶属关系。观察到焦虑与个人和家族精神病史之间的关系,以及模型外部的特征,如家族和个人抑郁症史。对结果的分析强调了在心理健康干预中不仅要考虑临床方面,还要考虑社会和家庭方面的重要性。建议在未来的研究中扩大样本量,以提高模型的鲁棒性。总之,该研究证明了人工智能在早期发现年轻人焦虑方面的有用性,并强调了解决多维因素在评估和治疗这种疾病中的相关性。
    The study addresses the detection of anxiety symptoms in young people using artificial intelligence models. Questionnaires such as the Patient Health Questionnaire-9 (PHQ-9) and Generalized Anxiety Disorder 7-item scale (GAD-7) are used to collect data, with a focus on early detection of anxiety. Three machine learning models are employed: Support Vector Machine (SVM), K Nearest Neighbors (KNN), and Random Forest (RF), with cross-validation to assess their effectiveness. Results show that the RF model is the most efficient, with an accuracy of 91 %, surpassing previous studies. Significant predictors of anxiety are identified, such as parental education level, alcohol consumption, and social security affiliation. A relationship is observed between anxiety and personal and family history of mental illness, as well as with characteristics external to the model, such as family and personal history of depression. The analysis of the results highlights the importance of considering not only clinical but also social and family aspects in mental health interventions. It is suggested that the sample size be expanded in future studies to improve the robustness of the model. In summary, the study demonstrates the usefulness of artificial intelligence in the early detection of anxiety in young people and highlights the relevance of addressing multidimensional factors in the assessment and treatment of this condition.
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