气候变暖影响害虫的生长发育,导致其地理分布的变化,这增加了预防和控制的难度。果蝇,亚洲新角膜炎(Becker),是一种主要的食性害虫,会导致枸杞严重的产量损失,枸杞近年来,随着种植面积的扩大,害虫的危害越来越严重,严重阻碍了枸杞的生产。在这项研究中,利用最优MaxEnt模型模拟和预测了当前和未来气候情景下亚洲雪草的潜在适宜生境,基于筛选分布记录和环境因素。使用ArcGIS确定了气候变化下害虫分布的变化。结果表明,MaxEnt的最佳参数组合是特征组合(FC)=LQPT和正则化乘数(RM)=1。影响害虫分布的主要环境因素是最干旱季度的平均温度,最冷季度平均温度和最冷季度降水。在不同的气候条件下,在目前的气候条件下,害虫的适宜栖息地主要在27°-47°N和73°-115°E之间。中、高适宜生境面积42.18×104km2,主要分布在内蒙古(13.68×104km2),甘肃(9.40×104km2),宁夏(5.07×104km2),青海(4.10×104km2),和新疆(3.97×104km2)省份。在未来的气候情景下,预计合适的面积将低于目前的面积,除了SSP245-2050和SSP370-2070,适宜栖息地的质心主要向东北移动,除了SSP370-2050和SSP585-2070。我们的研究结果为积雪草的监测和管理提供了有价值的指导,以及无虫枸杞种植地点的选择。
Climate warming affects the growth and development of pests, resulting in changes in their geographical distribution, which increases the difficulty in terms of prevention and control. The fruit fly, Neoceratitis asiatica (Becker), is a predominant frugivorous pest that causes serious yield loss in the goji berry, Lycium barbarum L. In recent years, with the expansion of cultivation area, the damage induced by the pest has become increasingly severe, significantly impeding the production of the goji berry. In this study, the potential suitable habitats of N. asiatica under current and future climate scenarios were simulated and predicted using the optimal MaxEnt model, based on the screening distribution records and environmental factors. The changes in the pest distribution under climate change were determined using ArcGIS. The results showed that the best combination of parameters for MaxEnt were feature combination (FC) = LQPT and regularization multiplier (RM) = 1. The dominant environmental factors influencing pest distribution were mean temperature of driest quarter, mean temperature of coldest quarter and precipitation of coldest quarter. Under different climate conditions, the suitable habitats of the pest primarily ranged between 27°-47° N and 73°-115° E. Under current climate conditions, the area of moderately and highly suitable habitats was 42.18 × 104 km2, and mainly distributed in Inner Mongolia (13.68 × 104 km2), Gansu (9.40 × 104 km2), Ningxia (5.07 × 104 km2), Qinghai (4.10 × 104 km2), and Xinjiang (3.97 × 104 km2) Provinces. Under future climate scenarios, the suitable area was projected to be lower than the current ones, except SSP245-2050s and SSP370-2070s, and the centroids of suitable habitats were mainly shifted to the northeast, except SSP370-2050s and SSP585-2070s. Our results provide valuable guidance for the monitoring and management of N. asiatica, as well as the selection of pest-free goji berry cultivation sites.