在西班牙,石果生产具有巨大的经济意义。这些水果物种的栽培地点(即,桃子,杏子,李子,和甜樱桃)覆盖全国广泛且气候不同的地理区域。在地中海等某些地区,气候变化已经使平均气温升高,并具有特殊的强度。这些变化导致累积的寒意减少,这可能会对李属物种的物候产生深远的影响,如核果,例如,难以满足打破内休眠的冷却要求,晚期霜冻事件的发生,或异常的早期高温。所有这些因素都会严重影响水果生产和质量,因此从社会经济角度来看,在现有地区会产生非常负面的后果。因此,根据农业气候变量对当前种植面积的表征(例如,寒冷和热量积累以及霜冻和早期异常热事件的可能性),根据过去20年来自270个气象站的数据,是在这项工作中进行的,目的是对当前情况进行翔实的描述。此外,来自不同全球气候模型的未来气候预测(从西班牙气象国家机构-AEMET检索的数据),直到2065年,对于两个代表性集中路径情景(即,还分析了RCP4.5和RCP8.5)。以当前形势为基准,并考虑未来情景,可以推断出有关不同物种/品种对不同生长区域的当前和未来适应性的信息。这些信息可能是决策支持工具的基础,以帮助不同的利益相关者就西班牙当前和未来的核果或其他温带物种种植做出最佳决策。
Stone fruit production has enormous economic importance in Spain. Cultivation locations for these fruit species (i.e., peach, apricot, plum, and sweet cherry) cover wide and climatically diverse geographical areas within the country. Climate change is already producing an increase in average temperatures with special intensity in certain areas like the Mediterranean ones. These changes lead to a decrease in the accumulated chill, which can have a profound impact on the phenology of Prunus species like stone fruits due to, e.g., difficulties to cover the chilling requirements to break endodormancy, the occurrence of late frost events, or abnormal early high temperatures. All these factors can severely affect fruit production and quality and therefore provoke very negative consequences from the socio-economic point of view in the incumbent regions. Thus, characterization of current cultivation areas in terms of agroclimatic variables (e.g., chill and heat accumulation and probabilities of frost and early abnormal heat events), based on data from 270 weather stations for the past 20 years, is carried out in this work to produce an informative picture of the current situation. Besides, future climatic projections from different global climate models (data retrieved from the Meteorological State Agency of Spain-AEMET) up to 2065 for two Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios (i.e., RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) are also analyzed. Using the current situation as a baseline and considering the future scenarios, information on the current and future adaptive suitability of the different species/cultivars to the different growing areas can be inferred. This information could be the basis of a decision support tool to help the different stakeholders to take optimal decisions regarding current and future stone fruit or other temperate species cultivation in Spain.