背景:水痘是一种轻度,由水痘-带状疱疹病毒(VZV)感染引起的自限性疾病。最近,我国水痘的疾病负担逐渐加重,然而,安徽省水痘流行病学特征未见报道。
目的:分析安徽省2012-2021年水痘流行病学特征,为今后研究和制定全省水痘防控政策提供依据。
方法:使用监测数据对2012-2021年安徽省水痘的流行病学特征进行了描述。时间,和空间。使用Moran指数(MoranI)探索水痘的空间自相关性。采用Kulldorff时空扫描统计量分析水痘的时空聚集。
结果:2012-2021年安徽省共报告水痘276,115例,年平均发病率为44.8/10万,2019年最高发病率为81.2/10万。病例的男女比例约为1.26,近年来逐渐下降。5-14岁人群是高发人群,尽管30岁及以上人群的发病率逐渐增加。学生占大多数,以及两个家庭抚养儿童(0-7岁未被送到托儿所的病例比例,日托中心,或学校)和幼儿园儿童(3-6岁)近年来略有变化。每年有两次水痘发病高峰,除2020年外,冬季高峰期的发病率通常高于夏季。皖南地区水痘发病率高于皖北地区。县级年平均发病率为6.61~152.14/10万,2018-2021年水痘疫情较为严重。安徽省水痘的时空分布不具有随机性,在县级发现了正的空间自相关(MoranI=0.412)。有11个区县具有高-高集群,主要分布在安徽南部,和3个具有高-低或低-高集群的区或县。时空扫描分析确定了五个可能的区域集群,最有可能的集群分布在安徽东南部地区。
结论:本研究全面描述了2012-2021年安徽省水痘流行病学及变化趋势。在未来,应加强对水痘重点人群和地区的防控措施。
BACKGROUND: Varicella is a mild, self-limited disease caused by varicella-zoster virus (VZV) infection. Recently, the disease burden of varicella has been gradually increasing in China; however, the epidemiological characteristics of varicella have not been reported for Anhui Province.
OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to analyze the epidemiology of varicella in Anhui from 2012 to 2021, which can provide a basis for the future study and formulation of varicella prevention and control policies in the province.
METHODS: Surveillance data were used to characterize the epidemiology of varicella in Anhui from 2012 to 2021 in terms of population, time, and space. Spatial autocorrelation of varicella was explored using the Moran index (Moran I). The Kulldorff space-time scan statistic was used to analyze the spatiotemporal aggregation of varicella.
RESULTS: A total of 276,115 cases of varicella were reported from 2012 to 2021 in Anhui, with an average annual incidence of 44.8 per 100,000, and the highest incidence was 81.2 per 100,000 in 2019. The male-to-female ratio of cases was approximately 1.26, which has been gradually decreasing in recent years. The population aged 5-14 years comprised the high-incidence group, although the incidence in the population 30 years and older has gradually increased. Students accounted for the majority of cases, and the proportion of cases in both home-reared children (aged 0-7 years who are not sent to nurseries, daycare centers, or school) and kindergarten children (aged 3-6 years) has changed slightly in recent years. There were two peaks of varicella incidence annually, except for 2020, and the incidence was typically higher in the winter peak than in summer. The incidence of varicella in southern Anhui was higher than that in northern Anhui. The average annual incidence at the county level ranged from 6.61 to 152.14 per 100,000, and the varicella epidemics in 2018-2021 were relatively severe. The spatial and temporal distribution of varicella in Anhui was not random, with a positive spatial autocorrelation found at the county level (Moran I=0.412). There were 11 districts or counties with high-high clusters, mainly distributed in the south of Anhui, and 3 districts or counties with high-low or low-high clusters. Space-time scan analysis identified five possible clusters of areas, and the most likely cluster was distributed in the southeastern region of Anhui.
CONCLUSIONS: This study comprehensively describes the epidemiology and changing trend of varicella in Anhui from 2012 to 2021. In the future, preventive and control measures should be strengthened for the key populations and regions of varicella.