东南亚大陆(MSEA)国家(柬埔寨,老挝,泰国,缅甸,和越南)有可能成为下一个减排热点地区之一,由于经济的快速增长和相关的能源消耗,到2040年,该地区的二氧化碳排放量将增加三分之二。作为气候变化最脆弱的地区之一,MSEA国家需要根据准确的排放数据制定低碳路线图。本研究基于IPCC地域排放核算方法,提供了MSEA国家2010-2019年的排放清单,包括五种燃料的排放(即,煤炭,原油,石油产品,天然气,和生物燃料和废物)用于47个经济部门。结果表明,MSEA国家的排放量呈上升趋势,平均年增长率从泰国的2.5%到老挝的19.3%不等。生物质是最重要的碳排放源之一,占碳排放总量的11.8%至76.7%,但是它的份额在大多数国家都在下降,而老挝的煤炭排放份额急剧上升,越南,柬埔寨。我们使用指数分解分析进一步检验了排放变化背后的驱动因素。经济增长是排放量增长的最强劲动力,而人口增长对排放增长的影响很小。不同国家的能源强度差异很大,但只会显著减少泰国的二氧化碳排放量增长。第二产业在很大程度上促进了老挝和越南二氧化碳排放量的增加,而第三产业仅对泰国的排放做出了适度贡献。我们的研究提供了对MSEA国家排放增长的组成和潜在因素的更好理解,这可以塑造他们的低碳发展道路。我们的结果也可以为其他新兴经济体提供信息,这可能会成为未来几十年的排放热点,制定低碳路线图,从而有助于实现全球气候变化目标。
Mainland Southeast Asian (MSEA) countries (Cambodia, Laos, Thailand, Myanmar, and Vietnam) are likely to become one of the next hotspots for emission reduction, since CO2 emissions in this area will have a two-thirds increase by 2040 due to rapid economy growth and associated energy consumption. As one of the most vulnerable areas to climate change, MSEA countries need to develop low-carbon roadmaps based on accurate emission data. This study provides emission inventories for MSEA countries for 2010-2019, based on the IPCC territorial emission accounting approach , including emissions from five types of fuels (i.e., coal, crude oil, oil products, natural gas, and biofuels & waste) used in 47 economic sectors. The results show that the emissions in MSEA countries are on the rise, with average annual growth rates ranging from 2.5% in Thailand to 19.3% in Laos. Biomass is one of the most important sources of carbon emissions, contributing between 11.8% and 76.7% of total carbon emissions, but its share has been declining in most countries, whereas the share of emissions from coal has risen sharply in Laos, Vietnam, and Cambodia. We further examine the drivers behind the changes in emissions using index decomposition analysis. Economic growth was the strongest driver of growth in emissions, while population growth has only had a small effect on emission growth. Energy intensity varies widely across nations, but only significantly reduced CO2 emission growth in Thailand. The secondary sector considerable contributed to an increase in CO2 emissions in Laos and Vietnam, while the tertiary sector only moderately contributed to emissions in Thailand. Our study provides a better understanding of the composition and underlying factors of emission growth in MSEA countries, this could shape their low-carbon development pathway. Our results could also inform other emerging economies, which may become emission hotspots in the next decades, to develop low-carbon roadmaps, thereby contributing to the achievement of global climate change targets.