Diagnosing urothelial cancer (UCa) via invasive cystoscopy is painful, specifically in men, and can cause infection and bleeding. Because the UCa risk is higher for male patients, urinary non-invasive UCa biomarkers are highly desired to stratify men for invasive cystoscopy. We previously identified multiple DNA methylation sites in urine samples that detect UCa with a high sensitivity and specificity in men. Here, we identified the most relevant markers by employing multiple statistical approaches and machine learning (random forest, boosted trees, LASSO) using a dataset of 251 male UCa patients and 111 controls. Three CpG sites located in ALOX5, TRPS1 and an intergenic region on chromosome 16 have been concordantly selected by all approaches, and their combination in a single decision matrix for clinical use was tested based on their respective thresholds of the individual CpGs. The combination of ALOX5 and TRPS1 yielded the best overall sensitivity (61%) at a pre-set specificity of 95%. This combination exceeded both the diagnostic performance of the most sensitive bioinformatic approach and that of the best single CpG. In summary, we showed that overlap analysis of multiple statistical approaches identifies the most reliable biomarkers for UCa in a male collective. The results may assist in stratifying men for cystoscopy.

Previous predictive models using logistic regression for stillbirth do not leverage the advanced and nuanced techniques involved in sophisticated machine learning methods, such as modeling nonlinear relationships between outcomes.
This study aimed to create and refine machine learning models for predicting stillbirth using data available before viability (22-24 weeks) and throughout pregnancy, as well as demographic, medical, and prenatal visit data, including ultrasound and fetal genetics.
This is a secondary analysis of the Stillbirth Collaborative Research Network, which included data from pregnancies resulting in stillborn and live-born infants delivered at 59 hospitals in 5 diverse regions across the United States from 2006 to 2009. The primary aim was the creation of a model for predicting stillbirth using data available before viability. Secondary aims included refining models with variables available throughout pregnancy and determining variable importance.
Among 3000 live births and 982 stillbirths, 101 variables of interest were identified. Of the models incorporating data available before viability, the random forests model had 85.1% accuracy (area under the curve) and high sensitivity (88.6%), specificity (85.3%), positive predictive value (85.3%), and negative predictive value (84.8%). A random forests model using data collected throughout pregnancy resulted in accuracy of 85.0%; this model had 92.2% sensitivity, 77.9% specificity, 84.7% positive predictive value, and 88.3% negative predictive value. Important variables in the previability model included previous stillbirth, minority race, gestational age at the earliest prenatal visit and ultrasound, and second-trimester serum screening.
Applying advanced machine learning techniques to a comprehensive database of stillbirths and live births with unique and clinically relevant variables resulted in an algorithm that could accurately identify 85% of pregnancies that would result in stillbirth, before they reached viability. Once validated in representative databases reflective of the US birthing population and then prospectively, these models may provide effective risk stratification and clinical decision-making support to better identify and monitor those at risk of stillbirth.

BACKGROUND: Anthrapyrazoles are a new class of antitumor agents and successors to anthracyclines possessing a broad range of antitumor activity in various model tumors.
OBJECTIVE: The present study introduces novel QSAR models for the prediction of antitumor activity of anthrapyrazole analogues.
METHODS: The predictive performance of four machine learning algorithms, namely artificial neural networks, boosted trees, multivariate adaptive regression splines, and random forest, was studied in terms of variation of the observed and predicted data, internal validation, predictability, precision, and accuracy.
RESULTS: ANN and boosted trees algorithms met the validation criteria. It means that these procedures may be able to forecast the anticancer effects of the anthrapyrazoles studied. Evaluation of validation metrics, calculated for each approach, indicated the artificial neural network (ANN) procedure as the algorithm of choice, especially with regard to the obtained predictability as well as the lowest value of mean absolute error. The designed multilayer perceptron (MLP)-15-7-1 network displayed a high correlation between the predicted and the experimental pIC50 value for the training, test, and validation set. A conducted sensitivity analysis enabled an indication of the most important structural features of the studied activity.
CONCLUSIONS: The ANN strategy combines topographical and topological information and can be used for the design and development of novel anthrapyrazole analogues as anticancer molecules.

Emotion regulation is a core construct of mental health and deficits in emotion regulation abilities lead to psychological disorders. Reappraisal and suppression are two widely studied emotion regulation strategies but, possibly due to methodological limitations in previous studies, a consistent picture of the neural correlates related to the individual differences in their habitual use remains elusive. To address these issues, the present study applied a combination of unsupervised and supervised machine learning algorithms to the structural MRI scans of 128 individuals. First, unsupervised machine learning was used to separate the brain into naturally grouping grey matter circuits. Then, supervised machine learning was applied to predict individual differences in the use of different strategies of emotion regulation. Two predictive models, including structural brain features and psychological ones, were tested. Results showed that a temporo-parahippocampal-orbitofrontal network successfully predicted the individual differences in the use of reappraisal. Differently, insular and fronto-temporo-cerebellar networks successfully predicted suppression. In both predictive models, anxiety, the opposite strategy, and specific emotional intelligence factors played a role in predicting the use of reappraisal and suppression. This work provides new insights regarding the decoding of individual differences from structural features and other psychologically relevant variables while extending previous observations on the neural bases of emotion regulation strategies.

BACKGROUND: Using Food Chain Information data to objectively identify high-risk animals entering abattoirs can represent an important step forward towards improving on-farm animal welfare. We aimed to develop and evaluate the performance of classification models, using Gradient Boosting Machine algorithms that utilise accurate longitudinal on-farm data on pig health and welfare to predict condemnations, pluck lesions and low cold carcass weight at slaughter.
RESULTS: The accuracy of the models was assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve (AUC). The AUC for the prediction models for pneumonia, dorsocaudal pleurisy, cranial pleurisy, pericarditis, partial and total condemnations, and low cold carcass weight varied from 0.54 for pneumonia and 0.67 for low cold carcass weight. For dorsocaudal pleurisy, ear lesions assessed on pigs aged 12 weeks and antimicrobial treatments (AMT) were the most important prediction variables. Similarly, the most important variable for the prediction of cranial pleurisy was the number of AMT. In the case of pericarditis, ear lesions assessed both at week 12 and 14 were the most important variables and accounted for 33% of the Bernoulli loss reduction. For predicting partial and total condemnations, the presence of hernias on week 18 and lameness on week 12 accounted for 27% and 14% of the Bernoulli loss reduction, respectively. Finally, AMT (37%) and ear lesions assessed on week 12 (15%) were the most important variables for predicting pigs with low cold carcass weight.
CONCLUSIONS: The findings from our study show that on farm assessments of animal-based welfare outcomes and information on antimicrobial treatments have a modest predictive power in relation to the different meat inspection outcomes assessed. New research following the same group of pigs longitudinally from a larger number of farms supplying different slaughterhouses is required to confirm that on farm assessments can add value to Food Chain Information reports.

Air pollution in large cities produces numerous diseases and even millions of deaths annually according to the World Health Organization. Pollen exposure is related to allergic diseases, which makes its prediction a valuable tool to assess the risk level to aeroallergens. However, airborne pollen concentrations are difficult to predict due to the inherent complexity of the relationships among both biotic and environmental variables. In this work, a stochastic approach based on supervised machine learning algorithms was performed to forecast the daily Olea pollen concentrations in the Community of Madrid, central Spain, from 1993 to 2018. Firstly, individual Light Gradient Boosting Machine (LightGBM) and artificial neural network (ANN) models were applied to predict the day of the year (DOY) when the peak of the pollen season occurs, resulting the estimated average peak date 149.1 ± 9.3 and 150.1 ± 10.8 DOY for LightGBM and ANN, respectively, close to the observed value (148.8 ± 9.8). Secondly, the daily pollen concentrations during the entire pollen season have been calculated using an ensemble of two-step GAM followed by LightGBM and ANN. The results of the prediction of daily pollen concentrations showed a coefficient of determination (r2) above 0.75 (goodness of the model following cross-validation). The predictors included in the ensemble models were meteorological variables, phenological metrics, specific site-characteristics, and preceding pollen concentrations. The models are state-of-the-art in machine learning and their potential has been shown to be used and deployed to understand and to predict the pollen risk levels during the main olive pollen season.

Many coral reef organisms live in symbiotic relationships with photosynthetic microalgae. This symbiosis extends the energy resources available to reef organisms, thereby potentially influencing biodiversity. In octocorals, about one-half of the taxa contain photosynthetic symbionts while the rest do not, and thus octocorals are an ideal model to assess the relationships between biodiversity, spatial and environmental factors, and photosynthetic symbionts. Data collected from 1106 sites on the Great Barrier Reef, Australia, between 12° and 24° S showed that taxa with photosynthetic symbionts (phototrophs) had higher abundances, wider ranges, and a wider spread of locations than taxa without symbionts (heterotrophs). In phototrophic assemblages, spatial turnover comprised both exchange and loss of taxa, and their richness was high across a broad range of environmental conditions. In contrast, heterotrophs were uncommon, had short ranges, and were located where energy supply was highest and disturbance lowest. Turnover between heterotrophic assemblages comprised taxonomic loss rather than exchange of taxa. The biodiversity patterns and differences between phototrophic and heterotrophic octocorals are similar to those recorded in more spatially limited studies of phototrophic sponges and hard corals, and heterotrophic sponges. This study therefore suggests that the association, or not, with photosynthetic symbionts, and spatial and environmental factors related to energy supply and disturbance are principal drivers of biodiversity, community composition, and ranges of coral reef benthos.

In pig production, efficiency is benefiting from uniform growth in pens resulting in single deliveries from a pen of possibly all animals in the targeted weight range. Abnormalities, like pneumonia or aberrant growth, reduce production efficiency as it reduces the uniformity and might cause multiple deliveries per batch and pigs delivered with a low meat yield or outside the targeted weight range. Early identification of pigs prone to develop these abnormalities, for example, at the onset of the growing-finishing phase, would help to prevent heterogeneous pens through management interventions. Data about previous production cycles at the farm combined with data from the piglet\'s own history may help in identifying these abnormalities. The aim of this study, therefore, was to predict at the onset of the growing-finishing phase, that is, at 3 mo in advance, deviant pigs at slaughter with a machine-learning technique called boosted trees. The dataset used was extracted from the farm management system of a research center. It contained over 70,000 records of individual pigs born between 2004 and 2016, including information on, for example, offspring, litter size, transfer dates between production stages, their respective locations within the barns, and individual live-weights at several production stages. Results obtained on an independent test set showed that at a 90% specificity rate, the sensitivity was 16% for low meat percentage, 20% for pneumonia and 36% for low lifetime growth rate. For low lifetime growth rate, this meant an almost three times increase in positive predictive value compared to the current situation. From these results, it was concluded that routine performance information available at the onset of the growing-finishing phase combined with data about previous production cycles formed a moderate base to identify pigs prone to develop pneumonia (AUC > 0.60) and a good base to identify pigs prone to develop growth aberrations (AUC > 0.70) during the growing-finishing phase. The mentioned information, however, was not a sufficient base to identify pigs prone to develop low meat percentage (AUC < 0.60). The shown ability to identify growth aberrations and pneumonia can be considered a good first step towards the development of an early warning system for pigs in the growing-finishing phase.

Foodborne pathogens such as Listeria spp. contain the ability to survive and multiply in poultry farming environments, which provides a route of contamination for poultry processing environments and final poultry products. An understanding of the effect of meteorological variables on the prevalence of Listeria spp. in the farming environment is lacking. Soil and feces samples were collected from 11 pastured poultry farms from 2014 to 2017. Random forest (RF) and gradient boosting machine (GBM) predictive models were generated to describe and predict Listeria spp. prevalence in feces and soil samples based on meteorological factors at the farming location. This study attempted to demonstrate the use of GBM models in a food safety context and compare their use to RF models. Both feces models performed very well, with area under the curve (AUC) values of 0.905 and 0.855 for the RF and GBM models, respectively. The soil GBM model outperformed the RF model with AUCs of 0.873 and 0.700, respectively. The developed models can be used to predict the prevalence of Listeria spp. in pastured poultry farm environments and should be of great use to poultry farmers, producers, and risk managers.