近年来,橡木花边虫,Corythuchacurrata,已经成为对欧洲橡树林的重大威胁。这个物种,原产于北美,在过去的二十年里,它迅速扩大了在欧洲的业务范围,引起人们对其对非洲大陆宝贵橡树种群的潜在影响的担忧。为了解决这一日益增长的问题,我们进行了广泛的研究来评估分布,殖民模式,和欧洲橡木花边虫的潜在生态位。我们收集了来自21个欧亚国家的1792个独特的存在坐标,利用不同的来源,如研究观察,公民科学倡议,GBIF数据库,和社交媒体报道。为了描绘已实现的利基和未来的分布,我们采用了集合物种分布建模(SDM)框架。在三个时间间隔(2021-2040、2061-2080和2081-2100)中考虑了两种未来的温室气体情景(RCP4.5和RCP8.5),以预测和评估未来物种的潜在分布。我们的分析显示,到目前为止,这种入侵昆虫的宿主物种丰富的重要热点尚未入侵,甚至在其合适的栖息地内。此外,土耳其橡木(QuercuscerrisL.)和匈牙利橡木(QuercusfrainettoL.)物种的原生范围为橡木花边虫提供了完全合适的环境。相比之下,多枝橡木和无柄橡木的分布范围目前仅显示出40%和50%的定植适宜性,分别。然而,我们的预测模型表明橡木花边虫的栖息地适应性发生了重大变化,对这两种橡树品种的适用性增加了高达90%。这种转变突显了一种不断发展的景观,橡木花边虫可能会利用比最初预期更多的可用栖息地。它强调迫切需要采取积极措施来管理和阻止其不断扩大的存在,这可能会对整个欧洲景观的橡树种群产生有害影响。
In recent years, the oak lace bug, Corythucha arcuata, has emerged as a significant threat to European oak forests. This species, native to North America, has in the last two decades rapidly extended its range in Europe, raising concerns about its potential impact on the continent\'s invaluable oak populations. To address this growing concern, we conducted an extensive study to assess the distribution, colonization patterns, and potential ecological niche of the oak lace bug in Europe. We gathered 1792 unique presence coordinates from 21 Eurasian countries, utilizing diverse sources such as research observations, citizen science initiatives, GBIF database, and social media reports. To delineate the realized niche and future distribution, we employed an ensemble species distribution modelling (SDM) framework. Two future greenhouse gas scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) were considered across three-time intervals (2021-2040, 2061-2080, and 2081-2100) to project and evaluate the species\' potential distribution in the future. Our analysis revealed that significant hotspots rich in host species occurrence for this invasive insect remain uninvaded so far, even within its suitable habitat. Furthermore, the native ranges of Turkey oak (Quercus cerris L.) and Hungarian oak (Quercus frainetto L.) species offer entirely suitable environments for the oak lace bug. In contrast, the pedunculate oak and sessile oak distribution ranges currently show only 40 % and 50 % suitability for colonization, respectively. However, our predictive models indicate a significant transformation in the habitat suitability of the oak lace bug, with suitability for these two oak species increasing by up to 90 %. This shift underlines an evolving landscape where the oak lace bug may exploit more of its available habitats than initially expected. It emphasises the pressing need for proactive measures to manage and stop its expanding presence, which may lead to a harmful impact on the oak population across the European landscape.