asymptotic variance

渐近方差
  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    多重检验一直是统计研究中的一个突出课题。尽管在这方面做了大量的工作,控制错误发现仍然是一项具有挑战性的任务,特别是当检验统计量表现出依赖性时。已经提出了各种方法来估计在测试统计量之间的任意依赖性下的错误发现比例(FDP)。一种关键方法是将任意依赖转化为弱依赖,并随后建立FDP的强一致性和弱依赖下的错误发现率。因此,FDP在弱依赖框架内收敛到相同的渐近极限。然而,我们已经观察到,FDP的渐近方差可以显著影响的依赖结构的检验统计,即使它们只表现出微弱的依赖性。量化这种可变性具有非常重要的实际意义,因为它可以作为从数据中评估FDP质量的指标。据我们所知,文献中对这方面的研究有限。在本文中,我们的目标是通过量化FDP的变化来填补这一空白,假设检验统计量表现出弱依赖性,服从正态分布。我们首先推导FDP的渐近展开,然后研究FDP的渐近方差如何受到不同依赖结构的影响。基于从这项研究中获得的见解,我们建议在使用FDP的多个测试程序中,报告FDP的均值和方差估计值可以为研究结果提供更全面的评估.
    Multiple testing has been a prominent topic in statistical research. Despite extensive work in this area, controlling false discoveries remains a challenging task, especially when the test statistics exhibit dependence. Various methods have been proposed to estimate the false discovery proportion (FDP) under arbitrary dependencies among the test statistics. One key approach is to transform arbitrary dependence into weak dependence and subsequently establish the strong consistency of FDP and false discovery rate under weak dependence. As a result, FDPs converge to the same asymptotic limit within the framework of weak dependence. However, we have observed that the asymptotic variance of FDP can be significantly influenced by the dependence structure of the test statistics, even when they exhibit only weak dependence. Quantifying this variability is of great practical importance, as it serves as an indicator of the quality of FDP estimation from the data. To the best of our knowledge, there is limited research on this aspect in the literature. In this paper, we aim to fill in this gap by quantifying the variation of FDP, assuming that the test statistics exhibit weak dependence and follow normal distributions. We begin by deriving the asymptotic expansion of the FDP and subsequently investigate how the asymptotic variance of the FDP is influenced by different dependence structures. Based on the insights gained from this study, we recommend that in multiple testing procedures utilizing FDP, reporting both the mean and variance estimates of FDP can provide a more comprehensive assessment of the study\'s outcomes.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    我们比较了两种基于删除的方法来处理线性回归分析中的缺失观察值问题。一个是完整案例分析(CC,或按列表方式删除),丢弃所有不完整的观测值,只使用普通样本进行普通最小二乘估计。另一个是可用案例分析(AC,或成对删除),利用所有可用的数据来估计协方差矩阵,并应用这些矩阵来构造正态方程。我们表明,在完全随机缺失(MCAR)的情况下,两种方法的估计都是渐近无偏的,并在某些典型情况下进一步比较了它们的渐近方差。令人惊讶的是,使用更多的数据(即,AC)在许多情况下不一定会导致更好的渐近效率。缺失的模式,协方差结构和真实回归系数值都在确定哪个更好中起作用。我们进一步进行模拟研究,以证实这些发现,并揭开文献中遗漏或误解的神秘面纱。在线补充材料中提供了一些详细的证明和模拟结果。
    We compare two deletion-based methods for dealing with the problem of missing observations in linear regression analysis. One is the complete-case analysis (CC, or listwise deletion) that discards all incomplete observations and only uses common samples for ordinary least-squares estimation. The other is the available-case analysis (AC, or pairwise deletion) that utilizes all available data to estimate the covariance matrices and applies these matrices to construct the normal equation. We show that the estimates from both methods are asymptotically unbiased under missing completely at random (MCAR) and further compare their asymptotic variances in some typical situations. Surprisingly, using more data (i.e., AC) does not necessarily lead to better asymptotic efficiency in many scenarios. Missing patterns, covariance structure and true regression coefficient values all play a role in determining which is better. We further conduct simulation studies to corroborate the findings and demystify what has been missed or misinterpreted in the literature. Some detailed proofs and simulation results are available in the online supplemental materials.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    Cavalieri估计器允许人们从等距平面截面中的面积测量值推断物体的体积。已知的是,在非等距情况下应用该估计器可能显著增大误差系数。因此,我们考虑一种新引入的变体,梯形估计器,并提供给从业者。它对自然物体的典型方差行为与等距情况相当。我们陈述了这个无偏估计器,描述方差估计,并解释后者如何在相当一般但现实的模型下简化,用于部分之间的差距。模拟和基于18只猴子顶叶的合成面积函数的应用说明了新方法。
    The Cavalieri estimator allows one to infer the volume of an object from area measurements in equidistant planar sections. It is known that applying this estimator in the non-equidistant case may inflate the coefficient of error considerably. We therefore consider a newly introduced variant, the trapezoidal estimator, and make it available to practitioners. Its typical variance behaviour for natural objects is comparable to the equidistant case. We state this unbiased estimator, describe variance estimates and explain how the latter can be simplified under rather general but realistic models for the gaps between sections. Simulations and an application to a synthetic area function based on parietal lobes of 18 monkeys illustrate the new methods.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    医学研究中的事件发生时间数据可能涉及一些治愈的患者,并且永远不会经历感兴趣的事件。在实践中,那些治愈的病人是正确的审查。然而,当数据包含固化部分时,标准的生存方法,如Cox比例风险模型可能会产生有偏差的结果,因此会产生误导性的解释。此外,对于一些结果,事件的确切时间未知;而是记录事件发生的时间间隔。本文提出了一种新的计算方法,可以处理固化分数问题和间隔审查挑战。要做到这一点,我们扩展了传统的混合治疗Cox模型,以适应对观察到的事件时间进行部分间隔审查的数据。传统的模型参数估计方法是基于期望最大化(EM)算法,其中对数似然通过间接完整数据对数似然函数最大化。我们在本文中提出了一种直接优化对数似然函数的替代算法。进行了大量的蒙特卡罗模拟,以证明新方法相对于EM算法的性能。新算法的主要优点是为所有估计参数生成渐近方差矩阵。将新方法应用于薄黑素瘤数据集以预测黑素瘤复发。各种推论,包括具有逐点置信区间的生存和危险函数图,被呈现。一个R包现在在Github上可用,并将上传到RCRAN。
    Time-to-event data in medical studies may involve some patients who are cured and will never experience the event of interest. In practice, those cured patients are right censored. However, when data contain a cured fraction, standard survival methods such as Cox proportional hazards models can produce biased results and therefore misleading interpretations. In addition, for some outcomes, the exact time of an event is not known; instead an interval of time in which the event occurred is recorded. This article proposes a new computational approach that can deal with both the cured fraction issues and the interval censoring challenge. To do so, we extend the traditional mixture cure Cox model to accommodate data with partly interval censoring for the observed event times. The traditional method for estimation of the model parameters is based on the expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm, where the log-likelihood is maximized through an indirect complete data log-likelihood function. We propose in this article an alternative algorithm that directly optimizes the log-likelihood function. Extensive Monte Carlo simulations are conducted to demonstrate the performance of the new method over the EM algorithm. The main advantage of the new algorithm is the generation of asymptotic variance matrices for all the estimated parameters. The new method is applied to a thin melanoma dataset to predict melanoma recurrence. Various inferences, including survival and hazard function plots with point-wise confidence intervals, are presented. An R package is now available at Github and will be uploaded to R CRAN.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    具有扩散功率的两波(TWDP)是描述新兴无线网络中小规模衰落效应的最有前途的模型之一。然而,它基于参数K和Δ的常规参数化不符合模型的基本物理机制。因此,在本文中,我们首先发现了与在基于矩的估计中使用常规TWDP参数化相关的异常,这表明现有的基于Δ的估计器无法在某些信道条件下提供有意义的估计。然后,我们推导了最近引入的物理上合理的TWDP参数K和Γ的基于矩的估计器,并通过渐近方差(AsV)和Cramer-Rao界(CRB)度量分析了它们的性能。进行的分析表明,基于Γ的估计器设法克服了基于Δ的估计器观察到的所有异常,同时提高了整体基于矩的估计精度。
    Two-wave with diffuse power (TWDP) is one of the most promising models for description of a small-scale fading effects in the emerging wireless networks. However, its conventional parameterization based on parameters K and Δ is not in line with model\'s underlying physical mechanisms. Accordingly, in this paper, we first identified anomalies related to usage of conventional TWDP parameterization in moment-based estimation, showing that the existing Δ-based estimators are unable to provide meaningful estimates in some channel conditions. Then, we derived moment-based estimators of recently introduced physically justified TWDP parameters K and Γ and analyzed their performance through asymptotic variance (AsV) and Cramer-Rao bound (CRB) metrics. Performed analysis has shown that Γ-based estimators managed to overcome all anomalies observed for Δ-based estimators, simultaneously improving the overall moment-based estimation accuracy.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    The self-controlled case series is an important method in the studies of the safety of biopharmaceutical products. It uses the conditional Poisson model to make comparison within persons. In models without adjustment for age (or other time-varying covariates), cases who are never exposed to the product do not contribute any information to the estimation. We provide analytic proof and simulation results that the inclusion of unexposed cases in the conditional Poisson model with age adjustment reduces the asymptotic variance of the estimator of the exposure effect and increases power. We re-analysed a vaccine safety dataset to illustrate.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    提出了基于矩的M2M4信噪比(SNR)估计器,用于具有确定性但未知相位的复杂正弦信号,该信号被Sekhar和Sreenivas的加性高斯噪声破坏。作者仅通过数值示例研究了其性能,并得出结论,所提出的估计器是渐近有效的,并且对于信号和噪声功率的某些组合具有有限样本的超效率。在本文中,我们推导了所提出的M2M4信噪比估计器的解析渐近性能,我们证明了,与Sekhar和Sreenivas得出的结论相反,所提出的估计器既不是(渐近)有效的也不是超有效的。我们还表明,当处理确定性信号时,推导渐近性能所需的协方差矩阵必须明确推导,因为其已知的随机信号的一般形式不能扩展到确定性信号。提供了数值示例,其结果证实了分析结果。
    The moment-based M2M4 signal-to-noise (SNR) estimator was proposed for a complex sinusoidal signal with a deterministic but unknown phase corrupted by additive Gaussian noise by Sekhar and Sreenivas. The authors studied its performances only through numerical examples and concluded that the proposed estimator is asymptotically efficient and exhibits finite sample super-efficiency for some combinations of signal and noise power. In this paper, we derive the analytical asymptotic performances of the proposed M2M4 SNR estimator, and we show that, contrary to what it has been concluded by Sekhar and Sreenivas, the proposed estimator is neither (asymptotically) efficient nor super-efficient. We also show that when dealing with deterministic signals, the covariance matrix needed to derive asymptotic performances must be explicitly derived as its known general form for random signals cannot be extended to deterministic signals. Numerical examples are provided whose results confirm the analytical findings.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    Balancing allocation of assigning units to two treatment groups to minimize the allocation differences is important in biomedical research. The complete randomization, rerandomization, and pairwise sequential randomization (PSR) procedures can be employed to balance the allocation. However, the first two do not allow a large number of covariates. In this article, we generalize the PSR procedure and propose a k-resolution sequential randomization (k-RSR) procedure by minimizing the Mahalanobis distance between both groups with equal group size. The proposed method can be used to achieve adequate balance and obtain a reasonable estimate of treatment effect. Compared to PSR, k-RSR is more likely to achieve the optimal value theoretically. Extensive simulation studies are conducted to show the superiorities of k-RSR and applications to the clinical synthetic data and GAW16 data further illustrate the methods.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    工具变量是解决观察性研究中不可测量的混杂因素的重要工具。两阶段预测因子替代(2SPS)估计器和两阶段残差包含(2SRI)是应用工具变量的两种常用方法。最近,在事件发生时间数据存在竞争风险的情况下,在附加风险模型下研究了2SPS,其中假定治疗和仪器变量之间的关系为线性。当我们进行二元治疗时,这种假设可能不是最合适的。在本文中,我们考虑在一般生存数据和存在竞争风险的情况下,在加性风险模型下的2SRI估计器,这允许对治疗和工具变量之间的关系进行广义线性模型。我们推导了渐近性质,包括2SRI估计器的封闭形式渐近方差估计。我们在有限样本中进行数值研究,并将我们的方法应用于关联监测,流行病学和最终结果(SEER)-Medicare数据库,比较早期前列腺癌患者的根治性前列腺切除术与保守治疗。
    Instrumental variable is an essential tool for addressing unmeasured confounding in observational studies. Two-stage predictor substitution (2SPS) estimator and two-stage residual inclusion (2SRI) are two commonly used approaches in applying instrumental variables. Recently, 2SPS was studied under the additive hazards model in the presence of competing risks of time-to-events data, where linearity was assumed for the relationship between the treatment and the instrument variable. This assumption may not be the most appropriate when we have binary treatments. In this paper, we consider the 2SRI estimator under the additive hazards model for general survival data and in the presence of competing risks, which allows generalized linear models for the relation between the treatment and the instrumental variable. We derive the asymptotic properties including a closed-form asymptotic variance estimate for the 2SRI estimator. We carry out numerical studies in finite samples and apply our methodology to the linked Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER)-Medicare database comparing radical prostatectomy versus conservative treatment in early-stage prostate cancer patients.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    In applications of item response theory (IRT), an estimate of the reliability of the ability estimates or sum scores is often reported. However, analytical expressions for the standard errors of the estimators of the reliability coefficients are not available in the literature and therefore the variability associated with the estimated reliability is typically not reported. In this study, the asymptotic variances of the IRT marginal and test reliability coefficient estimators are derived for dichotomous and polytomous IRT models assuming an underlying asymptotically normally distributed item parameter estimator. The results are used to construct confidence intervals for the reliability coefficients. Simulations are presented which show that the confidence intervals for the test reliability coefficient have good coverage properties in finite samples under a variety of settings with the generalized partial credit model and the three-parameter logistic model. Meanwhile, it is shown that the estimator of the marginal reliability coefficient has finite sample bias resulting in confidence intervals that do not attain the nominal level for small sample sizes but that the bias tends to zero as the sample size increases.
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