全球范围内,乳腺癌是癌症死亡的主要原因,占2020年女性癌症死亡人数的15.5%。乳腺癌也是南非女性癌症的主要原因。南非的快速流行病学转变可能会对该国乳腺癌死亡率的趋势产生影响。因此,我们评估了20年来(1999-2020年)SA乳腺癌死亡率的趋势。
UNASSIGNED:使用南非统计局的死亡率数据,对1999年至2018年南非妇女乳腺癌粗死亡率和年龄标准化死亡率(ASMR)趋势进行了Joinpoint回归分析。然后进行年龄-时期-队列回归分析,以评估年龄的独立影响,period,和乳腺癌死亡率队列,分析按种族分层。
UNASSIGNED:乳腺癌的死亡率(从每100,000名妇女9.82到13.27)每年增加约1.4%(平均年变化百分比(AAPC):1.4%,95%CI:0.8-2.0,P值<0.001)。30-49岁的年轻女性(1.1%-1.8%,P值<0.001)增加了乳腺癌死亡率。乳腺癌死亡率的风险在1924年至1928年的连续出生队列中增加,但在1989年至1993年出生的近期队列中下降。2018年,黑人(9.49/100,000女性)的乳腺癌死亡率约为非黑人的一半。(颜色:每100,000名妇女18.11;白人:17.77/100,000名妇女;印度/亚洲:每100,000名妇女13.24)。
未经评估:与高收入和中等收入国家的趋势相反,南非乳腺癌死亡率上升,尤其是年轻女性.应加强乳腺癌预防计划,并应针对年轻女性。在计划和实施干预措施时应考虑乳腺癌种族负担的明显差异。
Globally, breast cancer is the leading cause of cancer deaths, accounting for 15.5% of female cancer deaths in 2020. Breast cancer is also the leading cause of female cancers in South Africa. The rapid epidemiological transition in South Africa may have an impact on the trends in breast cancer mortality in the country. We therefore evaluated the trends in the breast cancer mortality in SA over 20 years (1999-2020).
UNASSIGNED: Joinpoint regression analyses of the trends in crude and age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR) of breast cancer among South African women were conducted from 1999 to 2018 using mortality data from Statistics South Africa. Age-period-cohort regression analysis was then conducted to evaluate the independent effect of age, period, and cohort on breast cancer mortality, and analysis was stratified by ethnicity.
UNASSIGNED: The mortality rate of breast cancer (from 9.82 to 13.27 per 100,000 women) increased at around 1.4% per annum (Average Annual Percent Change (AAPC): 1.4%, 95% CI:0.8-2.0, P-value< 0.001). Young women aged 30-49 years (1.1%-1.8%, P-value< 0.001) had increased breast cancer mortality. The risk of breast cancer mortality increased among successive birth cohorts from 1924 to 1928 but decreased among recent cohorts born from 1989 to 1993. In 2018, the breast cancer mortality rate among Blacks (9.49/100,000 women) was around half of the rates among the non-Blacks. (Coloreds: 18.11 per 100,000 women; Whites: 17.77/100,000 women; Indian/Asian: 13.24 per 100,000 women).
UNASSIGNED: Contrary to the trends in high- and middle-income countries, breast cancer mortality increased in South Africa especially among young women. Breast cancer prevention programs should be intensified and should also target young women. The marked disparity in ethnic burden of breast cancer should be considered during planning and implementation of interventions.