2019年冠状病毒病(COVID-19)对人类健康产生了深远的不利影响。研究表明,气溶胶传播是严重急性呼吸道综合征冠状病毒2(SARS-CoV-2)的主要传播途径之一。SARS-CoV-2等病原微生物可以在空气中存活,并在人群中引起广泛的感染。对病原微生物在大气中传播的早期监测和准确的疫情预测是防止大规模疫情暴发的前沿保障。监测空气中的病原微生物,尤其是在人口稠密的地区,可能会增加在人们被广泛感染之前检测病毒的可能性,并在早期阶段遏制疫情。多尺度耦合准确的疫情预测系统可以为政府分析疫情提供支持,分配卫生资源,制定疫情应对政策。本文首先阐述了大气环境对病原微生物传播的影响,为疫情发展的监测和预测奠定了理论基础。其次,总结和强调了监测技术的发展和监测大气中病原微生物的必要性。随后,本文介绍了主要的流行病预测方法,并强调了通过加强流行病学的多学科合作来实现多尺度耦合流行病预测系统的重要意义,大气科学,环境科学,社会学,人口统计学,等。通过总结在大气中病原微生物传播监测和预测方面取得的成就和面临的挑战,这次审查提出了应对流行病的建议,即,建立病原微生物在大气中传播的综合监测和预测平台。
Corona virus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has exerted a profound adverse impact on human health. Studies have demonstrated that aerosol transmission is one of the major transmission routes of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). Pathogenic microorganisms such as SARS-CoV-2 can survive in the air and cause widespread infection among people. Early monitoring of pathogenic microorganism transmission in the atmosphere and accurate epidemic prediction are the frontier guarantee for preventing large-scale epidemic outbreaks. Monitoring of pathogenic microorganisms in the air, especially in densely populated areas, may raise the possibility to detect viruses before people are widely infected and contain the epidemic at an earlier stage. The multi-scale coupled accurate epidemic prediction system can provide support for governments to analyze the epidemic situation, allocate health resources, and formulate epidemic response policies. This review first elaborates on the effects of the atmospheric environment on pathogenic microorganism transmission, which lays a theoretical foundation for the monitoring and prediction of epidemic development. Secondly, the monitoring technique development and the necessity of monitoring pathogenic microorganisms in the atmosphere are summarized and emphasized. Subsequently, this review introduces the major epidemic prediction methods and highlights the significance to realize a multi-scale coupled epidemic prediction system by strengthening the multidisciplinary cooperation of epidemiology, atmospheric sciences, environmental sciences, sociology, demography, etc. By summarizing the achievements and challenges in monitoring and prediction of pathogenic microorganism transmission in the atmosphere, this review proposes suggestions for epidemic response, namely, the establishment of an integrated monitoring and prediction platform for pathogenic microorganism transmission in the atmosphere.